Here it is, the day you’ve been waiting for - if you’re a fan of massive mountain stages or one of the top climbers, that is. For many other riders, this is a day they’ve been dreading. With a total of four category one climbs, including the final ascent up the Col de la Couillole, this will stretch the riders to the limit, but there’s also a lot to gain. Let’s go through the classifications one by one.
First, there’s obviously the mountain classification. Here’s the current Top 4:
1
Marc Hirschi
Sauber Petronas Racing
34
2
Stephen Williams
Centovalli - Fiat
34
3
Ivan Sosa
Volvo acc. by Spotify
34
4
Muhammad Abdurrahman
Campari/Asahi development
26
It’s about as close as it can be, and with a total of 64 points to be claimed today, things can change a whole lot and even riders with fewer points still have a shot at the jersey.
Then there’s the points competition, which is only marginally less close:
1
Aidan Van Niekerk
Festina - Isostar
66
2
Joseph Areruya
Xero Racing
60
3
Mark Padun
Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling
60
4
Yevgeniy Gidich
Duolingo
59
But the result of the points competition will of course ultimately be more of a byproduct of what happens in the fight for the GC:
1
Yevgeniy Gidich
Duolingo
25h48'31
2
Aidan Van Niekerk
Festina - Isostar
+ 59
3
Mark Padun
Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling
+ 1'49
4
Joseph Areruya
Xero Racing
+ 2'01
5
Aleksandar Roman
Festina - Isostar
+ 2'22
6
Kyeng Ho Min
Farfetch Pro Cycling
+ 2'34
7
Nicola Conci
Euskaltel - Elior
+ 3'00
8
Neilson Powless
McCormick Pro Cycling
+ 3'02
9
William Barta
Azteca - NBCSN
+ 3'28
10
Alexander Vlasov
Aegon - Tinkoff U23
+ 3'40
11
Valentin Madouas
Team Puma - SAP
+ 3'41
12
Joao Almeida
DK Zalgiris
+ 5'16
13
Tadej Pogacar
Swisslion Cycling Team
+ 5'17
14
Xuban Errazkin
Azteca - NBCSN
+ 5'42
15
Filippo Ganna
Team Puma - SAP
+ 6'22
As it stands right now, a lot is still in flux. Looking at just the overall victory, it does seem like it comes down to a duel between Gidich and Padun. The latter is the runaway favorite for today so it’s tough to see any of the favorites beating him outright, and Van Niekerk is unlikely to hold his 50 second lead, but Gidich has proven that he is in great shape and with almost 2 minutes between them, he has a realistic chance of defending yellow all the way.
Van Niekerk would need a monumental effort to keep his podium spot, but considering his strong performance two days ago, it’s certainly not impossible. Either way, he will face intense competition by Areruya, Roman and Min, all of whom are as close together in the GC as they are, on paper, in climbing skills and they will have an eye on the podium as well.
Behind those six, a number of riders are fighting for the remaining Top 10 positions. It would not be surprising to see some of them in a breakaway today, especially the guys behind Madouas, who have a deficit of almost or more than 2 minutes to the Top 10. So, a lot to fight for - let’s get into it:
For any decent climber not involved in the GC battle, this is obviously a very appealing stage to get into a breakaway and challenge for the polkadots jersey. Hibatullah has 8 points so far, he’s the first to break free from the peloton.
Very interestingly, the next move is led by none other than Schleck! He is more than 11 minutes down in the GC, so this makes some sense, but we’ll have to see if the peloton lets one of the best climbers go.
Alongside Sivakov and Sunderland, he soon catches up with Hibatullah. The peloton is still moving at a high pace and more attacks keep coming, among others from KoM contender Williams.
It looks like the process of forming the breakaway might be much simpler than in days past. In addition to Williams, it’s Gregaard, Cherkasov, Rocchetti, Vingegaard, Evans and Abdurrahman who establish a lead of around 1’30 on the pack and quickly make up ground on the original quartet.
But that’s not the end of it after all. With two of his biggest competitors out in front, mountain classification leader Hirschi doesn’t just want to stay behind, so he jumps on the opportunity when Errazkin attacks. The Spaniard is 14th overall and the two are accompanied by Gaudu, 16th overall, so it will be interesting how much leeway they get, if any at all.
The peloton doesn’t seem to mind, with Festina, Adastra and Duolingo riding at an easy pace at the front. But then another seven riders try to break free, which would increase the total of riders up front to 21 - surely that has to be too much?
Apparently not. After quickly catching up to the previous three escapees, this second group of ten riders gains more than a minute and a half without a big reaction from the peloton. In addition to the three above, the names in here are Petelin, Martinez, Sosa, Zimmermann, Herrera, Bernal and Foss.
Two riders up ahead don’t seem to be enough for Euskaltel as Castrillo attacks as well a few minutes later. Mäder and Matsumoto try to counter. But this is just one attack too many and the peloton quickly brings them back.
And so we’re left with this big group of 21 as we reach the first major difficulty of the day, the Col de Braus. With an average slope of 5.5%, it’s not too steep (although that does include the small descent), but it’s almost 15 kilometers long. Let’s take a closer look at the riders:
In terms of pure climbing, Schleck obviously stands out. But he’s not known for his resistance, so it should be interesting to see how the stage develops. Petelin, on paper the second-best climber, has similar issues.
Behind them, there are a lot of riders very close to each other in terms of their abilities. Foss, Bernal, Sivakov, Errazkin and maybe even Gaudu and Hirschi, who are usually more the puncheur type, might be the best bets on such a demanding stage.
With Sosa present, we also have all of the Top 4 in the mountain classification mentioned prior to the stage here, so expect some fireworks towards the summits. And Cherkasov (17th) and Abdurrahman (20th) make it four Top 20 GC riders.
Interestingly, McCormick leads the pursuit in the peloton at the moment with Hoehn. His leader Powless is 8th overall and wouldn’t necessarily be a top favorite here today. But maybe he just has a great day. Either way, the gap to the peloton does not exceed two and a half minutes right now.
Aussies Sunderland and Evans are the first riders struggling at the back of the breakaway. That seems a bit early considering the stalling gap to the peloton doesn’t suggest a very high pace here, but maybe both groups are just moving quickly. Quite a few riders are also dropping off the back of the peloton already.
We’re almost 2 kilometers from the summit, but Sosa already accelerates. Hirschi and Abdurrahman are in third and fourth position, respectively, while Williams has missed the move and is further behind.
A gap opens behind Bernal, Schleck comes out of the saddle now to close it.
Zimmermann can’t hold Sosa’s wheel and leaves a gap as well. Bernal is the only one to react quickly.
Hirschi and Abdurrahman aren’t able to keep up as Schleck joins them. Sosa still has a small lead but Bernal apparently has some energy left.
And Bernal crosses the line first, collecting 16 points, but Sosa moves into the provisional lead in the classification, adding 12 to his previous 34. Schleck manages to go past Zimmermann to take third and 10 points, Hirschi and Abdurrahman are left with 6 and 4.
The breakaway is splintered all over the place now, we’ll have to see how much of that comes back together on the decent, but the attacks led to a big increase in the gap to the peloton. Bernal and Sosa now have more than four minutes on it.
In the leadup to the second climb of the day, the Col de Turini, everything got back together indeed, with one exception: Hibatullah has joined Sunderland and Evans trailing the breakaway by more than a minute and a half, but still a good way ahead of the peloton, which is now more than five minutes behind the leaders.
But with a drop in pace up front (evidenced by the aforementioned trio making it back) and Festina - Isostar taking over at the helm of the peloton, that gap comes down quickly. In only the first 2 kilometers of the climb, the advance drops by almost a minute and a half. The breakaway better pick things up again.
And they do, at least somewhat, stabilizing the gap at around 3’30 for the most part. They slow down again a bit towards the summit, but leave it to the riders fighting for the polkadots to change that. After being inattentive earlier, Williams is the first to attack here, Zimmermann responds quickly once again.
This time, it’s Sosa and Hirschi struggling. Abdurrahman latches on in fifth position, Bernal and Martinez ahead of him.
Like Sosa before him, Williams went just a tiny bit too early and again it’s Bernal who takes advantage.
Which leaves us once more with a tie at the top of the mountain classification. Bernal is making some moves, but he would need another first place over the next summit just to go to 48 points. Unless the breakaway makes it all the way to the finish line, it seems likely that Williams and Sosa will fight this out on the next climb. Hirschi and Abdurrahman also have a shot, but their performances so far don’t inspire confidence.
A few of the splits caused by the previous attacks have actually persisted through the downhill section. As we start the Col Saint Martin, a nine-men group leads the way. But with the firepower of the likes of Schleck, Errazkin, Gregaard and more, it seems not unlikely that at least some of them make if back to the front.
As you could also see there, the gap to the peloton has increased again and the peloton itself is down to 58 riders. There’s one big name currently missing though and that is Barta. There’s been no apparent incident like a puncture, he just didn’t cross the summit with the rest of the pack. But he does have some help and the peloton isn’t far ahead - still, this is concerning.
The two breakaway groups indeed join forces and Petelin makes contact again as well while Hibatullah is swallowed by the peloton. But unlike early on other previous climbs, the group remains stretched out with not a ton of cohesion. Riders at the back have to be careful.
A quick look back: Barta briefly made contact with the backend of the peloton but immediately, splits occurred ahead, and he still has a lot of ground to gain. We’ll continue to monitor the situation for the ninth overall.
Evans drops from the breakaway again and Petelin doesn’t have anything left in him either. A bit disappointing, but as mentioned earlier, he needs to work on his stamina and resistance to be competitive on such a stage.
With five kilometers to the summit, we see the first major split in the breakaway that does not result from an outright attack. Nine riders remain up front, we’ll go through them in a minute if the gap persists. You can also see the peloton further down the serpentines, around four minutes behind and itself now pretty drastically reduced. Barta luckily made it back, but a few of the better domestiques like Rikunov and Higuita have fallen behind.
Gregaard is working hard to bring a small group of riders back, but for now, the split does seem permanent. Bernal leads the first group that also contains Sosa, Schleck, Errazkin, Vingegaard, Zimmermann, Sivakov, Williams and Foss. With that, Hirschi and Abdurrahman are effectively out of the race for the polkadots.
In the peloton, Padun himself has taken over the reins! And to the surprise of no one, this heavily thins out the group. Only 18 riders currently remain. 19th overall Dina is the best-placed GC rider missing. Could we see some action between the favorites on this climb already? Still five kilometers to go here.
With around 2.5 kilometers left for the leaders on the road, Errazkin attacks, which leads to what could be a crucial selection. Schleck is right there with him, and so are Sosa, Bernal and the surprisingly strong Zimmermann. With Williams on the wrong side of this split, the mountain jersey comes closer for Sosa, but it’s far from a done deal yet.
Meanwhile, more riders continue to drop from the peloton, which is still led by Padun. Among them is seventh overall Conci, who has ridden a terrific race so far but could have a bad day at the worst possible time.
The 16 riders remaining in the favorites’ group (in order of their GC rank from left to right and top to bottom) are:
Gidich
Van Niekerk
Padun
Areruya
Roman
Min
Powless
Barta
Vlasov
Madouas
Almeida
Pogacar
Ganna
Inkelaar
Aular
Petelin
The latter of course a remnant of the breakaway. Ganna might be the most surprising but his strength as an allrounder seems to pay off here.
Back to the front where Zimmermann finally had to let go and Schleck has moved into the lead. He’s the strongest climber on paper and now tries to prove that on the road.
But it’s Errazkin, the original initiator of this move, who goes past him and is the sole leader heading towards the summit. Sosa stays with Bernal, trying to ensure his win in the mountain classification.
Unsurprisingly, Petelin and Ganna are the next riders to drop from the yellow jersey group, but Powless is there with them as well. Apparently, McCormick’s prior work was for nought as the 8th overall could drop a few places if he can’t recover. Said yellow jersey group is currently 3’45 behind Errazkin.
Sosa can’t keep up with Bernal all the way, but with this fourth place, he is now at 54 points compared to Williams’ 48 (2 from this climb) and Bernal’s 42. That should be enough.
Williams crosses the summit alongside Sivakov and Gregaard, almost 2 minutes behind Errazkin, half a minute behind Zimmermann. Foss and Vingegaard follow.
Almeida and Van Niekerk lose touch with the other favorites. It was always unlikely that Van Niekerk would be able to keep his second place overall, but he needs to make it back to the group on the descent to have a good chance to maybe stay inside to Top 5 or 6.
In the final few meters of the climb, Barta can’t keep up anymore either. He, too, will hope to make it back on the descent.
On that descent, Bernal has caught and moved past Schleck - who’s almost as bad a downhill rider as he is a time trialist - to join forces with Errazkin. Schleck trails the leading duo by just 25 second though, now accompanied by Sosa.
A bit more than half a minute behind, group Sivakov is about to catch up to Zimmermann.
Of the remaining escapees, only Foss is still ahead of group Gidich / Padun (although as you can see not for long), which also includes former breakaway riders Cherkasov, Gaudu, Vingegaard, Abdurrahman, Hirschi, Martinez and Sunderland.
Of the pre-stage and GC favorites, only Padun - who continues to do the bulk of the work -, Gidich, Roman, Areruya, Min, Inkelaar and Vlasov remain. Especially the latter two, who were 10th and 18th overall before today, are set to make sizeable jumps in the GC if things continue like this.
Just over a minute behind is a group of 8 that includes GC riders Barta, Van Niekerk, Pogacar, Madouas, Almeida and Aular as well as former escapees Herrera and Rocchetti. And that’s the situation as we head into the final climb.
Speaking of: The final climb is massive. 12.6 kilometers at an average (!) of 9.1%. That’s ample opportunity for big performances, big collapses, and large time gaps.
Padun continues to lead the way and the other favorites are simply unattentive, no other way to put it. They sit behind a few of the former breakaway riders and then just leave a gap. Min leads the chase now, but this feels like an unneccesary additional effort they have to put in.
Errazkin and Bernal increase their lead on Sosa and Schleck, but the peloton or what’s left of it is coming closer. Just over two minutes remain of the initial lead.
Min closes that small gap, but still Cherkasov, Foss and Vingegaard remain between him and Padun. And Gidich continues to ride towards the back end of the group.
Martinez, Hirschi, Sunderland and Gaudu have been dropped and are now between this group and group Van Niekerk / Barta, which does not manage to come any closer to the favorites at all.
Sivakov, Williams, Gregaard and Zimmermann have reunited with Sosa and Schleck. They’re now just under a minute both behind the leading duo and ahead of the favorites, but you would imagine one quick acceleration would close that gap in no time. Still 9 kilometers to go.
One final look further back at a few of the riders dropped earlier: Conci is by now almost six minutes behind the yellow jersey group. Ganna is 20 seconds ahead of him, Powless another 45 seconds further up the road. But all three of them will drop a few places in the GC today.
It’s still only Padun who’s at the head of this group and maybe he realizes that this might not be the way to go. He slows down a bit, allowing the lead of Errazkin and Bernal to go up a little to two and a half minutes. Group Van Niekerk is just 1’30 behind the favorites now. Abdurrahman and Vingegaard are dropped, Cherkasov is also struggling, Foss still holds on to his second position here!
While Errazkin and Bernal are still going strong, their chasers are running out of steam. Zimmermann and Schleck are the first to let go, but the rest of them will be caught by Padun and Co shortly. Six kilometers to go.
We should remind ourselves that Gidich’s lead to Padun in the GC is still 1’49. If the latter wants to make that up, simply riding at a somewhat high pace probably won’t cut it. And at some point, he’ll run out of road to attack on.
With the favorites slowly coming closer again but the stage win still within reach, Errazkin attacks! It’s a powerful acceleration and Bernal doesn’t seem to have a counter.
And there it is - the attack. But it’s not really an attack, Padun simply uses the moment the group catches Sosa to get a gap to his once again inattentive rivals. Who’s going to lead the chase now? Gidich has been very low-key the entire day - can he defend his jersey?
Padun moves past Gregaard, Sivakov and Williams with ease and then he actually goes out of the saddle! He quickly brings some 45 seconds between himself and his rivals, where Areruya has taken the lead but it’s a tempered pace. Only two riders remaining ahead on the road now, but Errazkin is still doing well, around 2 minutes ahead of Padun.
Some two minutes behind the yellow jersey group, Almeida and Aular lead the group around Van Niekerk. That gap currently puts the two-time stage winner in sixth position, still a few seconds ahead of Vlasov in the virtual GC, but also just a few seconds ahead of Errazkin. We’ll see how all of this shakes out, for now we will focus on the stage win and the fight for the overall win and podium.
At the 3 kilometers mark, Padun moves past Bernal. Errazkin is still a little over a minute ahead, but the way Padun is going, that might not be enough.
The other favorites are now 1’20 behind him as they move past and immediately shed all other escapees. In an effort to keep his jersey, Gidich attacks. Areruya is closest, Roman, Min, Vlasov and Inkelaar (both with by far their best performance yet) slightly further behind.
Then it is Roman who leads the pursuit and gets a little seperation to Areruya and Min. Inkelaar finally can’t keep up anymore and Vlasov looks like he’s about to drop as well.
With exactly 2 kilometers to go, Padun overtakes Errazkin. A fantastic effort by the Spaniard will not result in a stage win but might still reward him with a big jump in the GC. Bernal is about to be caught by the attacking Gidich.
But even before that, Roman catches and moves past Gidich. He still has a good chance at the podium if he gains 22 seconds on Areruya - which it looks like he could do.
Errazkin was able to keep up with Padun for a bit but has to let go under the flamme rouge. The Ukranian now has around 1’45 on Gidich - with the 20 bonus seconds from the stage win, that would be enough to take the GC!
And despite Gidich’s best efforts, the gap is growing rather than decreasing. His second place overall is as safe as it can be, but the overall win is getting away from him here. Between Roman, Min and Areruya, there’s still a close battle for places 3 to 5, currently with the advantage for Roman.
Padun wins the stage with ease, he really fulfilled his top favorite status here today. An impressive performance starting even on the penultimate climb. No one could hold a candle to him today and with the win, he also takes the points classification home. Errazkin finishes second after just as impressive a ride and moves up to sixth overall.
Min and Gidich have one very short final acceleration in them, but it’s not enough to either reduce the gap to Padun enough, who wins the GC, nor to catch Roman, who secures the final podium spot. Areruya stays in fourth place, Min moves past Van Niekerk into fifth. Bernal also concludes this race on a high note, hinting at his great potential.
Vlasov and Inkelaar will also be content with their performance today. They cross the line a bit under four minutes behind the winner in 8th and 9th place, and both move up considerably in the GC, specifically to 7th and 10th, respectively. Gregaard hangs on for 10th place, he makes a jump as well and finishes in 16th overall.
Aular had a very strong second half of the climb, getting a big gap to the rest of his previous companions and catching almost all other previous escapees. He finishes with Sosa, who indeed wins the mountain classification, as well as Sivakov, and a few seconds ahead of Williams, Schleck and Foss.
Van Niekerk is one of the bigger losers of today’s stage, although that was mostly to be expected. He stays in the Top 10 though, falling from second to eigth, and with the addition of his two stage wins, this race was certainly a success.
Almeida and Pogacar, who finish just ahead of him, stay in the Top 15 in the GC, as does Madouas, who comes in a few spots further behind.
Barta, who only three days ago had looked like a podium candidate, keeps his ninth place overall despite losing a bunch of time here.
That is in part because the biggest drop among the Top 10 belongs to Conci, who must have had just a terrible day and goes from 7th overall all the way down to 21st. Powless, who ended up around two minutes ahead of the Italian today, drops from 8th to 17th, Ganna from 15th to 25th.
And with that, the Tour de l’Avenir comes to a close. Gidich made the race suspenseful for as long as he could, but in the end, the overwhelming favorite Padun made his way to the top of the standings. All in all, it was a very nice showcase for many of the youngsters here, some of whom will return next year to fight for even better results - like Conci, Pogacar, Inkelaar or even stage winners Ovsyannikov and Van Niekerk, just to name a few. But for now, we’re back to our regularly scheduled racing!
Tour de l’Avenir 
