The second hilly stage of the race starts slowly with only a mild up and down throughout the first half. It then gets a bit harder with a section including four category 4 mountain sprints in close proximity to each other. With the mountain classification still completely open, we could see a new leader by the end of the day, but the points today are peanuts compared to what’s available tomorrow and on the final stage.
The finale is the most significant part, both (obviously) for the stage win as well as for possible GC implications. The climb isn’t all that steep, but with a length of three kilometers, some gaps are definitely in the cards. If the previous hill stage is anything to go by, Van Niekerk and Padun have to be named as the top favorites, but the likes of Errazkin and Gaudu were strong as well.
Gidich is also a major name to watch. He’s 21 seconds behind overall leader Powless, who isn’t a great puncheur, so the Duolingo rider has his eyes on the yellow jersey. Meanwhile, a rider like Areruya surely intends to reduce his GC deficit as well.
Our current lanterne rouge Munyaneza launches the first attack. Previous escapee Reddish and time trialist Beniusis follow him.
A couple of riders try to escape as well, but the peloton is riding at a high pace and is close behind.
We have a new trio in front, consisting of Resell, Muhindo and Storer.
But they weren’t successful either. There a lone attacker trying his luck now, it’s Gorecki.
Six more riders eventually go after him, and the peloton finally slows down a bit.
Forsby, Storer and Reddish join Gorecki in front, but Putti, Honore and Resell struggle to catch up. And there are still individual attacks going in the peloton: Kanter is the only one so far who’s established a decently sized gap, but he has a long way to go to make it to the first group.
Kanter first joined the second group on the road and then almost single-handedly brought them all the way to the front, so we now have a break of the day with eight riders. Putti is the best-placed rider in the GC, but he’s more than five minutes behind Powless. He’s also the best puncheur alongside Storer, who in turn has the most mountain points in this group: four. Reddish has one.
Reddish wins the mountain sprint, increasing his points total to six, Resell comes just a few meters too late. Storer adds one point. The peloton is three minutes behind.
A wide variety of teams does the work at the front of the pack. Volvo is the only one consistently riding with two riders there, Müller seems to have ambitions to make up for his disappointing result two days ago.
We can skip quite a bit ahead as nothing of note happened and even the intermediate sprint went by uncontestedly ( Gorecki rolled over the line first ahead of Putti and Honore, for the record).
The mountain sprint on the other hand is much more enticing for the escapees. In a very close call, Reddish wins it again. He’s now in the virtual lead in the mountain classification with 11 points. Honore and Resell take 3 points and 1 point, respectively.
The peloton is moving quickly now as well, as evidenced by the first riders having trouble staying with it. This group surprisingly includes Sivakov, Bernal and Abdurrahman, who were unattentive and badly positioned.
As mentioned earlier, the mountain sprints come quickly one after the other now. Kanter takes this one ahead of Honore and Storer. The peloton has reduced the gap to just under two minutes at this point.
Forsby wins the fourth mountain sprint of the day, but Reddish is attentive this time and increases his lead by crossing the line second.
Here’s a quick overview of the mountain classification. With five points available on the next sprint and six at the finish, Reddish isn’t safe yet, but assuming those sprints don’t go to the same rider, it looks good for him.
Meanwhile, Xero has taken on a bulk of the work in the peloton. Looks like Areruya might have a good day.
Reddish secures the jersey by winning the final mountain sprint of the day, but it looks like the stage win will not go to the breakaway today as the peloton can already see them by now.
Looking at the final stretch of this stage, we can see a mostly flat lead to the final climb. Maybe someone tries an attack beforehand, but against a peloton that is still at almost full force, that doesn’t seem like a great idea.
Have I spoken too soon? There’s been a lot of hesitation in the peloton without any one team really wanting to take responsibility, so the breakaway reaches the foot of the final ascent still with 40 seconds in hand! A success doesn’t seem all that impossible anymore, although one big acceleration by a top puncheur could close that gap quickly.
Could this be that big acceleration? Only 200 meters into the climb, Van Niekerk shows the same aggressiveness that brought him the stage win two days ago!
He reaches and passes the breakaway in no time. It’s Errazkin who attacks now to try and go after him while Sosa and Habtemichael try to control the situation for their leaders. Gidich is already in great position close to the front - 3 kilometers to go.
Gidich draws level with Errazkin while former escapees Putti and Storer try to stay with them. Areruya has now made his way to the front of the peloton, followed on his left by Müller, Padun is next.
The yellow jersey of Powless was positioned a bit awkwardly, he’s now trying to move up. His position as the overall leader is clearly in danger. We can see Schleck to his right and Barta a few positions further ahead.
Min was also caught off guard by the acceleration and is even further towards the back, a few positions behind Pogacar (#201). On the other side of the road, we can catch a glimpse of Vlasov and Conci, third and fourth in the GC, respectively.
Van Niekerk holds his gap to Gidich and Errazkin, who have emerged as the main chasers. Areruya also tries to get away from the peloton.
He joins the duo and brings Müller with him, getting a small gap to Padun and the rest of the pack.
Powless is fighting hard for his jersey, but it doesn’t look great. In this group are also Barta and Roman, the Euskaltel riders are Castrillo and Zahiri.
Under the flamme rouge, Van Niekerk still has around 15 seconds on Gidich, who looks like the strongest man in pursuit. Padun moves past a struggling Müller with a big acceleration, the peloton is now 30 seconds behind.
Barta has taken the lead there alongside Roman. With the aforementioned Euskaltel duo, Powless, Aular and Pogacar, they get a small gap to the rest of the peloton, currently led by Almeida. Min is slowly gaining a few positions now.
The road flattens significantly towards the finish, which should suit Van Niekerk. His second stage win is within reach, but a final attack by one of his chasers could still take it from him. Those, in turn, will try their best to gain as much time as possible on their rivals behind. Müller is back in the peloton by now, once again not quite living up to expectations.
Barta still leads the pursuit, while Van Niekerk is getting closer and closer to the line. This surely can’t get away from him now.
He seems to think that as well and raises his arms very early. But Padun launches a big acceleration behind him.
But it’s too little, too late and Aidan Van Niekerk does indeed celebrate his second stage win in three days! Padun and Gidich go for the bonus seconds but Areruya is very quick now, too. So is Errazkin, but the Spaniard is too far behind at this point.
The order stays the same and now the big question is: How big will the time gap be for this quartet? Barta has done a great job of bringing the peloton closer and he leads the sprint now.
15 seconds pass until Barta crosses the line with Pogacar and Aular in tow. Barta and Pogacar are rewarded with Top 5 GC positions, Aular has lost too much time prior to this to still interfere in those regions.
His teammate Almeida is closer to a good GC result. He finishes tenth today, one place behind Roman. This group ends up another 15 seconds behind the trio around Barta and also includes Vlasov (now fourth overall), Conci, Inkelaar and the fading Müller, among others.
Also in that group is the yellow jersey. Powless loses 30 seconds to Gidich (plus 4 bonus seconds) and has to give up the GC lead after just one day. He’s still second overall though, and as the decent climber he his, a good final result is very much in the cards.
Min crosses the line in this group as well, losing a few seconds to the other top tier climbers - with one exception, as Schleck finishes the day just over two minutes behind Van Niekerk (who also takes over the points jersey, by the way).
Tomorrow, the first mountain stage awaits. Two category 1 and three category 2 climbs will put the peloton to an acid test but also offer a much-needed opportunity for the best climbers to make up some ground in the GC. Padun has jumped to ninth overall today but is still 1’49 behind Gidich, while Areruya, Min and Roman have a deficit of around two and a half minutes. This could make for some very aggressive racing, hopefully.
Tour de l’Avenir 
