After two flat stages, we’re headed for some more challenging terrain today. There are no big climbs and for a long stretch, the stage isn’t all that spectacular, but the final 25 kilometers could make for some very exciting racing with a lot of short hills in quick succession. The final few hundred meters towards the finish line are a steep uphill slope, providing an additional opportunity for seperation. GC leader Sajnok is not a great rider on this kind of a course so we can expect to have a new yellow jersey by the end of the day.
Among the GC riders, Schleck and Barta are on paper the most vulnerable to a stage like this. In contrast, Gidich really wants to put some time into his rivals here to compensate for slightly weaker climbing, capitalizing on his superior puncheur skills. He’s the top favorite for today.
Other good puncheurs among the GC contenders include Padun, Areruya and Roman, all three potentially candidates for the stage win as well, helped by their decent acceleration.
Representing the pure puncheurs, Van Niekerk is also a good bet. He specifically targets today as one of two opportunities to shine. The same is true for the likes of Müller, Errazkin and Gaudu. Lastly, of course, there’s also a possibilty for a breakaway to come through, but with comparably few riders having lost more than a minute in the GC so far, you’d think the peloton would be very attentive.
The first attack of the day comes from Muhindo, quickly countered by Forsby. Already you can see a number of riders trying to get away as well a bit further behind.
Four riders close the gap, they are Sleen, Storer, Gorecki and Kurianov. Tryg has been active both yesterday and the day before, and they want to keep that streak alive.
But we’re not done yet: Mano, Hindley, Gamper, Honore and Kanter also want in on the move.
But that’s one (or five) too many for the peloton. With help, among others, from top sprinter Halvorsen, they bring all eleven of them back, and we’re back to square one.
Who else but a Tryg rider could be the next to initiate an attack, this time it’s Pedersen followed by Taminiaux.
Two duos are in pursuit: previous aggressors Mano and Storer first, then Yates and Setiawa.
The six joined forces and for a while, it looked like things had calmed down as they built an advance of about a minute. But that invited another wave of attacks, consisting of Natarov, Evans and Forsby on his second try.
Forsby was quickly caught again, but the other two continue to hold out ahead of the peloton, which itself is still chasing hard. We’re already almost 40 kilometers into the day and everything is still relatively close together, the pack 50 seconds behind Natarov and Evans who are in turn 40 seconds behind the leading group.
The peloton finally slowed down a bit, but the tough chase has taken a toll on Evans, who couldn’t keep up with his partner. Natarov is chasing the breakaway on his own now while the Australian is still trying to stay ahead of the peloton.
After a strenuous pursuit, Natarov finally joins the breakaway, 50 kilometers after the start of the stage. The group has two and a half minutes on the peloton at this point, Evans is 40 seconds behind them. Pedersen is the best-placed rider in the GC, 22 seconds behind Sajnok, Yates has his eyes on the mountain classification, where he trails the lead by only four points.
Taminiaux wins the intermediate sprint ahead of Mano and Storer, but more noteworthy: Natarov loses contact. Despite his long pursuit, he hasn’t missed a turn at the front of the group and maybe pays the price now. Evans is back in the peloton at this point.
Indeed, as the group comes to the first mountain sprint of the day, there’s only six of them. They are very similar in terms of their abilities on the hills, so no clear favorite can be identified. It might be noteworthy though that Setiawa has sat at the end of the group the entire day so far, just representing the colors of the overall leader but not doing any work.
The climb is very steep with more than 11% of an incline, but the group stays together. Only Mano gets a slight gap at the very end, taking six points ahead of Storer and Pedersen, no points for Yates. The peloton is 1’45 behind them by now …
… due to the efforts mostly of Festina - Isostar, Azteca and Xero.
Their pace puts a lot of stress on some of the weaker climbers already, and as the peloton hits the following hill, there’s a sizeable split. Around 40 riders are caught behind it, including a few decent puncheurs/climbers like Le Court, Putti and Habtemichael, as well as points leader Hodeg and mountain leader Porter.
In addition, the breakaway has only around a minute of advance left when Pedersen wins the second intermediate sprint ahead of Taminiaux and Setiawa.
More and more riders are in trouble, including the yellow jersey, Sajnok. There’s a longer flat part now, maybe allowing some riders to get back to the front, so let’s take stock afterwards.
Under heavy pressure mostly from Xero and Volvo with occasional input by Azteca and Festina in the person of second overall Kalaba, the breakaway is brough back even before the hills really start. The peloton still consists of 144 riders, but that first major split has persisted.
Here’s a closer look at the final kilometers. It’s an almost constant up and down with some pretty steep sections. Plenty of opportunity for some action-packed racing, but of course it’s up to the riders themselves how they approach this.
Kalaba continues to pressure the rest of the peloton with a very high pace up that first hill. Errazkin is already in third position and Padun is very attentive as well, currently in sixth position with Van Niekerk right behind him.
Kalaba leads the pack all the way up that climb, only at the last second Higuita and Sosa accelerate past him. With no rider having emerged as a clear mountain points leader prior to this first category 2 climb of the race, it’s enough for Higuita to take the jersey today.
Onto the next ascent, the peloton is still more than 100 riders strong, but you can see that the cohesion is very fragile. Stage 1 winner Anderberg now leads the group while Duolingo brings Gidich in position on the right side of the screen.
The peloton is getting thinner and thinner and there’s no repite now, it’s right onto the next climb. Among the riders falling behind are GC outsiders Petelin, Sivakov, Abdurrahman and Bernal.
We have the first major attack! It’s Müller who goes for it, doubling down on his team’s previous efforts. Affini tries to control the move, Padun is again very close to the front, making sure he’s not caught off guard.
Affini does a terrific job and brings Müller back, then it’s his captain Gidich who takes the lead. It’s not an all-out attack yet but he does increase the pace significantly. Only 34 riders left in this first group, the most prominent contenders still all there.
Here’s an all-out attack though: It’s Van Niekerk who jumps to the front with a big acceleration! Gidich comes out of the saddle now, too!
But he doesn’t go after him and Van Niekerk gets a sizeable gap! Around 30 seconds now, but still more than 10 kilometers to go.
More and more riders can’t keep up and now it’s Aular who has to let go. DK Zalgiris still has Almeida in the first group though.
Hsu has taken on pursuit duties now as the peloton heads up the final classified climb of the day. Van Niekerk is struggling a bit, but still keeping his gap.
Oh no, not struggling at all! Hsu is cooked and there’s hesitation in the peloton, no one willing to take responsibility - and Van Niekerk’s gap immediately shoots up to a minute!
And it only grows. Inside the final five kilometers, it’s up to a minute and a half, with Hsu at the front of the peloton again. Two major hills still remain including the ascent towards the finish, but this is looking good for Van Niekerk.
In a final attempt to do something meaningful, Müller, Gidich and Errazkin sprint up the penultimate climb. They get the gap down to 50 seconds but they’re already inside the final two kilometers - only a short descent and the final ramp remaining. The group is still 30 riders strong.
That final ascent is really only 500 meters long and Van Niekerk tackles it alone. The stage wins seems secure and it also looks good for yellow.
In the descent towards the finish, a few riders struggle to stay in the main group, among them the Carlsberg duo of Foss and Gregaard. Müller also overextended himself and is back here.
A number of riders start the sprint up that ramp in unison. The first row consists of Gidich, Zahiri, Gaudu, Padun, Errazkin and Eriksson.
Padun quickly takes the lead, Gaudu and Gidich still with him as the others can’t match their pace.
On the other end of the group, Ganna and Inkelaar struggle to keep up, we’ll have to see if there are additional time gaps here.
Van Niekerk is going in serpentines now, almost coming to a standstill after his long effort! Padun is still going strong - could Van Niekerk still lose this after all?
No! He holds on and rewards himself for a courageous performance! But we’ll have to wait a bit to see if he also gets the yellow jersey.
Padun can hold his speed all the way to finish second, Gaudu just barely beats Gidich and Errazkin to finish third.
Areruya ends up sixth ahead of Eriksson, Conci gives Euskaltel two men in the Top 10, as does Roman for Festina - Isostar. Min finishes 10th ahead of Schleck, who will surely be happy with this stage.
Eventually, only 19 riders finish with the same time. Gregaard is 20th, 40 seconds down, a trio including Inkelaar comes in another 16 seconds later. Ganna crosses the line 1’10 behind today’s winner, pretty much eliminating his chances of getting yellow in tomorrow’s time trial. A group with Foss, Petelin and Sivakov loses 1’19, but that’s still bearable compared to the 2’36 that Aular has to deal with.
Van Niekerk does not end up getting a time gap, but after a decent prologue, the 20 bonus seconds are enough to take the GC lead, 7 seconds ahead of Powless, who is in the best position to take over after tomorrow’s time trial alongside Gidich (at + 10) and Vlasov (+ 11).
Tour de l’Avenir 
