Here we are, Paris Tours. It’s as hotly contested as it is unpredictable. We could easily see one of the flat engines take it in a late attack, although at least as likely is of course a bunch sprint. But even then, which sprinters will survive at the front, and with enough energy, too, to then have a chance to convert their efforts to a great result? Well, let’s find out together:
For a good 10 kilometers, the peloton was just calmly chugging along until finally, Maccagli makes a move. Oram and Kulppi follow right away.
… and that’s just kind of it. Not a single other rider tries their luck, the trio up front quickly gets a lead of around three minutes and the peloton continues to pass through the French countryside at a leisurely pace.
We’re already at the halfway point of the race and nothing of note has been happening. The breakaway had a gap of just over five minutes at some point which is now down to three. None of them is a particularly good rouleur and because it’s such a small group, it’s hard to see them making much of an impact later on.
A bunch of teams share the work in the peloton and many of the top sprinters position themselves close to the front. The further along we go, the more important that will become, as a tough pace can quickly lead to splits. There’s some wind today, around 20 kph, too.
With the peloton now in viewing distance, Kulppi attacks his companions. We’ve seen this time and time again, usually it doesn’t go anywhere.
Indeed, he is caught soon and then it’s Oram’s turn.
The peloton wants to make the catch early and the pace remains very high. In addition, the wind has picked up a bit and so inside the final 30 kilometers, the pack is stretched thin. So far, everything’s still together, but riders have to be attentive now more than ever.
Under constant pressure mostly by Indosat and Festina, a small group of 23 actually breaks away from the rest of the peloton for a short bit. The main sprinters present are Coquard, Guarnieri, Van Stayen, Lo Cicero, Kump, Maksimov, Saber, Kristoff and Scully. They don’t stay out in front for long, of course, but it’s a first indication of who has good legs and who’s focussed.
Their attacks prolonged their time in the spotlight a bit (of course Maccagli also tried something in the previous kilometers), but with 21 kilometers to go, the escapees are swept up by the peloton, Okbamariam leading the charge. The stage is set for the fighters and rouleurs to try their best now and for the sprinter teams to control things. 10 kilometers until the first of the two short hills.
First Indosat with Van Avermaet, then Europcar with Aberasturi and Tybor control the peloton, they keep up a high pace and don’t allow any attacks so far. 15 kilometers to go.
This might be a good time to check on some of the sprinters and see if anyone’s far behind. And some really are: All three of the Farfetch leaders are pretty close to the back of the peloton, Kemboi the furthest ahead but not by much. Santos is right there with them, the Popo4Ever duo of Lutsyshyn and Ulanowski as well as a few major leadouts like Te Brake, Havik and Aregger as well. Still time to get back to the front, but not a lot.
Van der Haar and Ji lead the peloton onto the short 7% incline. Both were potential candidates for an attack, but it seems like they’re content to control the race for their leaders at this point.
Ji also powers up all the way over the second hill, allowing not a single acceleration from the pack. Some sprinters are already very close to the front, with Lo Cicero, Kristoff, Van Stayen, Maksimov and Van der Lijke in positions 4 through 8. 7 kilometers to the finish line now.
Finally, some action and it’s two things happening virtually at once! First, a split opens close to the front of the peloton. Only 39 riders remain ahead of it, the most notable exceptions are Enger, Scully and Van Asbroeck (in addition to the guys mentioned earlier).
Then, Wisniowski launches an actual attack! This could be a great moment and he immediately gets some seperation. 6 kilometers to go.
Kneisky goes after him, he’s won here like this before. Daniel and Katrasnik try to bring them back.
A very weird final few kilometers are unfolding before our eyes. Lecourt De Billot has joined Daniel at the front of the peloton, but it’s unclear if it’s an attempt to break free - he doesn’t gain any ground, at least.
Meanwhile, Coquard has taken it upon himself to lead a bunch of other sprinters to the front, possibly trying to get to Daniel’s slipstream. In his wheel, he has Manninen, Samolenkov, then Kristoff and Van Stayen. To then Belgian’s right is Rowe, Lo Cicero and Petit are also close by.
Immediately behind Petit (the Festina rider to the right of Varga), we have Silvestre and Salleh, then Van der Lijke, Kump, Howard, Maksimov, Saber, Reinhardt and Guarnieri.
Aberasturi and Matthews are also in the mix but have done some work already, and then behind this group is a big hole - no other sprinter will play a good role in the finale now.
But before any sprinter can challenge for the win, they first need to catch Wisniowski and Kneisky. As he heads into the final 3 kilometers, the Pole has around 25 seconds on the peloton, where Weber now leads the pursuit.
Contreras opens the sprint on the left side of the road, while Petit has found his way to the front to leadout Coquard. But the latter has spent some time alone in the wind already - not the greatest position to be in now.
The same riders still follow the Festina leader, namely Manninen, Samolenkov and Kristoff. Van Stayen has swung a little to the left, potentially trying to follow his teammate Stoltz. Lo Cicero and Rowe come next ahead of Salleh.
Contreras quickly fades as Petit charges to the front to lead the only real sprint train here. They gain ground on Kneisky, but Wisniowski still has a gap.
That one sprint train is very, very long by the way: Behind Salleh, we see Silvestre, Van der Lijke, Howard, Kump, Saber, Maksimov, Reinhardt and Guarnieri, all still trying to get back into contention. There’s a bit more than 2 kilometers left to do so.
With around 1.2 kilometers to go, Petit is done. Coquard takes over and immediately passes Kneisky, but that’s a long, long way for him to be out in front.
It looks like a heartbreaker for Wisniowski, who doesn’t seem to have another acceleration in him. Meanwhile, Coquard’s chasers come out of his slipstream, fanning out one next to the other. This is just an all-out sprint now.
Coquard still holds on to his lead but he’s starting to struggle a bit. Kristoff is now the fastest of the first five.
Manninen takes the lead as Coquard, unfortunately but predictably, starts to lose a lot of steam, seemingly going backwards now.
Samolenkov can’t keep up his high pace and starts to fade as well now. Manninen still looks well, but Van Stayen tries to make his way through the middle past Kristoff, going really fast.
Not a ton has changed behind them, Saber and Kump lead the charge but they will only fight for lower Top 10 places at best.
Van Stayen overtakes Kristoff, now only a super strong Manninen ahead of him. Silvestre also still has a lot of speed, maybe trying to get on the podium somehow.
Van Stayen decisively takes the lead! This is his now, it has to be! Silvestre is now looking to get past Kristoff, who desperately tries to hang on to his third place.
But he can’t! Van Stayen takes the win, a somewhat dominant one in the end, simply a beautifully timed sprint. Manninen and Silvestre complete the podium, which is a minor shock considering all the other top sprinters present, including Kristoff, who ends up fourth.
Howard recovers from a bad original position to take fifth ahead of Salleh. Van der Lijke beats Samolenkov in a photo finish, but the Russian will probably still be pleased with an 8th place. Lo Cicero less so with his 9th.
Rowe is the final man in the Top 10, he leads Saber and Maksimov over the line. Kump and Guarnieri couldn’t overcome their terrible positioning in the end, but they still finish ahead of fellow top favorite Coquard. Festina messed up pretty badly, once again Coquard can't quite deliver to his full potential - though today, he certainly wasn't the only one.
Reinhardt beats out Wisniowski at the finish line, whose courageous attack is rewarded only with the 17th place. Wohler, Vanbilsen and Stoltz complete the Top 20.
This certainly wasn’t the prettiest race - really no action at all until the final six kilometers and a sprint that was rather messy. Still, the big favorite did in fact win and takes home some very valuable points for Evonik - ELKO. And some of the longshot sprinters will also have a lot to celebrate tonight.
Paris Tours 
