For the seventh and final time in this 2019 Tour de France, the peloton embarks on a mountain stage. Similar to yesterday, it’s a short one at 125 kilometers, but with two Cat 1 climbs and a HC climb to the finish in Val Thorens, it’s going to be a big challenge.
The main focus for today is of course on deciding the final overall rankings. If nothing short of a miracle happens, it’s going to be a coronation stage for Madrazo, but behind him there’s still a lot in flux. Here’s the current Top 20:
Spoiler
1
Angel Madrazo
Gazelle
89h41'29
2
Joseph Dombrowski
eBuddy
+ 3'29
3
Lachlan Morton
Bennelong - Mitchelton
+ 4'40
4
Taylor Phinney
Grieg - Maersk
+ 5'00
5
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier
Festina - OAKA
+ 5'04
6
Stefan Denifl
SPAR - Siam Cement
+ 6'01
7
Romain Sicard
Air France - KLM
+ 6'45
8
Peter Velits
Aegon - Lavazza
+ 10'33
9
Tiago Machado
Andorra Cycling Project
+ 12'18
10
Warren Barguil
Moser - Sygic
+ 12'28
11
Jose Alarcon
Repsol - Netflix
+ 13'39
12
Tim Wellens
Fablok - Bank BGZ
+ 15'06
13
Fredrik Strand Galta
Aker - MOT
+ 15'34
14
Yonathan Monsalve
Farfetch Pro Cycling
+ 15'52
15
Andy Schleck
EA Vesuvio
+ 16'20
16
Rasmus Guldhammer
T-Mobile
+ 17'25
17
Sergio Luis Henao Montoya
T-Mobile
+ 19'28
18
Miguel Angel Lopez
Evonik - ELKO
+ 22'51
19
Hugh Carthy
Farfetch Pro Cycling
+ 27'20
20
Gianluca Brambilla
eBuddy
+ 31'35
We can see that even the podium is still hotly contested. Dombrowski has more than a minute of advance and he’s been very strong in the last few days, but Morton, Phinney and Lecuisinier are seperated by a mere 24 seconds and even Denifl has an outside shot with a monster performance.
Alarcon wants to use today to get back into the Top 10. He has to gain more than a minute on Barguil or Machado, or more than three on Velits. The latter two have been in exhausting breakaways throughout the last few days, so maybe they’re a bit fragile towards the end here.
Wellens, Galta, Monsalve and Schleck are also within around a minute of each other, but maybe more interesting is what happens with the riders a bit further behind.
Lopez and Carthy are engaged in two battles simultaneously. The former has held the white jersey for 17 of the last 18 days and still leads the latter in the young riders classification by more than four minutes, which usually should be enough - except that Lopez lost a devastating 12 minutes yesterday, so nothing is out of the question here. They’re also second (Carthy, 111 points) and third (Lopez, 107 points) in the mountain classification behind Brenes (114). With a total of 52 points on offer today, even Velits (80) and Machado (70) still have a shot, at least in theory.
Lastly, for the third day in a row, Madrazo is in a position to take the points jersey from Demare. No matter what, the French would always be able regain it tomorrow, but today, a tenth place would suffice for the yellow jersey to also add the green one to his collection.
Somewhat expectedly, Lopez and Brenes go on the attack. This could be a fantastic duel for the polkadots, it could also be really tough rest of the day for them if they spend too much energy early - we’ve seen this before with both.
Another couple of Top 20 riders also want to get into the breakaway today. Led by Monsalve (14th), there are also both Guldhammer (16th) and Henao Montoya (17th) as well as Wellens (12th) and Galta (13th). Notably, Carthy is not among the attackers.
Dunbar leads the chase, this could be a very dangerous group for Alarcon. But he will need help to bring them back …
Reimer, Smit and Marycz come to work as well, but the gap is slowly trending upwards.
The pace in the group ahead is really high as they try to stay clear. Wellens and Monsalve have trouble keeping up.
The other five finally manage to establish a gap of more than two minutes to the peloton. Brenes is already consistently at the end of the group.
And it doesn’t take long for him to fall behind. Should this really be the end of his long journey in the polkadots, just one day ahead of Paris?
While Wellens is back in the peloton, Monsalve is still in the middle of nowhere, a minute and a half ahead of it, but also a minute behind the breakaway, slowly trying to make his way back to them.
Is there hope for Brenes after all? Nearing the flat part a few kilometers under the summit, Lopez has to drop off as well. If he’s not careful, he’s in danger of not only not getting the polkadots, but maybe even losing white if he craters like he did yesterday.
Wellens himself leads the peloton, trying to hold the escapees on a short leash. The leading trio still has more than two minutes, but he gets closer to Monsalve at least. What a stage is is turning out to be, we’re not even over the first climb of the day!
Monsalve moves past Brenes and has his eyes set on Lopez, but the peloton is close behind. Lopez would need to cross the summit at least fourth (which he currently is) while Brenes is not in the first seven, then he would take the lead in the mountain classification. There are still almost four kilometers to the top.
Galta’s pace is relentless - it has to be if he wants to keep a decent gap over the peloton. But it’s too much for Guldhammer. Only Henao Montoya is left with the Norwegian.
Monsalve overtakes Lopez, whose polkadots dreams seem to vanish before his eyes. But Brenes can’t feel safe yet - with an attack from the peloton, Carthy could still take the jersey from him, he would only need to be sixth at the summit.
And there he is! Accompanied by Velits and Machado, the Brit is on the move!
Guldhammer made it back to the leaders as they cross the line. They’re less than two minutes ahead of the peloton though.
Velits has moved past Monsalve and Lopez, but Carthy’s attack had stalled - he tries it again just as the sprint line comes into sight, needing to overtake just one of them!
And with a strong acceleration, he actually gets past both, which means …
… that we have a new leader in the provisional mountain classification! What a heartbreak for Brenes, it’s tough to imagine him getting more points in the remainder of the stage - although it’s not impossible.
Carthy actually just kept going and he gets some seperation from the peloton on the descent. Machado is in pursuit, he also attacked again.
At the food of the Côte de Longefroy, the duo has 1’30 on the peloton and is 45 seconds behind the leaders.
Repsol - Netflix and Moser - Sygic do the bulk of the work to keep the distances small. Gazelle show their strength in numbers, but never actually take a turn at the front.
Carthy and Machado struggled to gain ground on the first part of the climb. As Machado is about to get caught, Carthy tries one more time.
But he is caught again as well, just under five kilometers from the summit. That opens the door again for Brenes, who is still in the peloton. A sixth place would suffice, and only three riders are left up front.
With the other guys caught, the leading trio seems to get a little more leeway. They cross the summit with around three minutes of advance. Galta would need only a few more seconds to break into the Top 10 again.
Velits is the first to attack from the peloton for the mountain points. Lopez is close by, but his deficit is too big at the moment to take the polkadots here. Brenes is further behind, he doesn’t seem to have the energy.
He tried, but it was too little, too late. Both he and Lopez would now need a Top 8 finish today to win the mountain classification - that sounds unlikely at this point.
On the downhill, there’s bad news for 9th overall Machado. He’s caught on the wrong side of a split!
The escapees enter the climb to Val-Thorens with only about two and a half minutes on the peloton. It’s a very uneven climb, very steep in the beginning and the end with some flat-ish and even short downhill sections in between. And it’s 25 kilometers long!
Novak and Prado still lead the peloton which now contains less than 50 riders. All major GC riders are still in there, except for Machado, whose group enters the climb 1’30 behind the pack.
Early on, Brenes can’t keep up anymore. He held the polkadots for 12 consecutive days, a terrific run, but it ends one day before Paris - and by such a tiny margin, too!
More and more riders start dropping, and Carthy is among them. Lopez would still need a phenomenal performance to take the mountain classification, but at least his white jersey seems somewhat safe now.
Novak and Prado did a phenomenal job, but now they seem cooked. No one else wants to take responsibility and so the gap to the escapees, which had been down to under a minute and a half slowly creeps back up again.
The trio works together really well and the gap grows to almost three and a half minutes. Galta is now pretty firmly in the virtual Top 10 and Guldhammer would move up to 12th at the moment.
Machado on the other hand looks like he’s about to lose his 9th place. He’s more than two minutes behind the other favorites by now, which would put him back to 12th, but if he continues to lose time, a much further drop isn’t out of the question.
Novak continues to lead the peloton but he doesn’t have anything left in the tank. The gap grows to almost five minutes and it’s a bit surprising that no one else is willing to chip in.
With the stage win more and more within reach, T-Mobile start to play their numbers. Henao Montoya attacks, Guldhammer tries to stay with Galta. Still 11 kilometers to go.
Galta has no problem shaking Guldhammer, but Henao Montoya holds a small gap.
And that gap starts to open more and and more. With 5 kilometers to go, it’s at more than half a minute. Incredibly, Galta has seven minutes on the peloton by now, threatening even Sicard in seventh place! Guldhammer, a little over a minute behind him is in virtually in ninth overall, even Henao Montoya starts to look at a Top 10 result. Still no movement whatsoever from the favorites.
They are already within the final four kilometers when Denifl finally attacks. Alarcon and Schleck are with him.
Lecuisinier, Monsalve, Dombrowski and Phinney are also in on the move, then there’s a gap!
Morton and Madrazo come to the front of the peloton to chase them down, but Denifl sets a very high pace! Monsalve and Phinney seem to be struggling to keep up with it.
At this point, Lopez falls behind. This settles the mountain classification once and for all - congratulations Hugh Carthy! But what an incredibly tight race this was: The Top 3 end up being seperated by just four points!
Way up the climb, Henao Montoya celebrates a fantastic stage win. The accelerations behind him may limit his potential GC gains, but this is still a stellar performance and a great way to end the Alps for T-Mobile!
Only Sicard and Barguil stay with Madrazo and Morton, Wellens and Velits are the main guys falling behind. This situation isn’t as big of a deal for Madrazo, but Morton is currently in serious danger of losing his podium place to Lecuisinier!
Denifl looks very strong. He continues to set the pace with Schleck, Lecuisinier, Dombrowski and Alarcon scattered behind him.
Galta had some heavy legs in the last few kilometers and finishes more than two and a half minutes behind Henao Montoya. But he will still gain a lot in the GC - the clock starts now for how much!
Inside the final kilometer, Denifl gets a small gap to the rest of the favorites. His four main chasers have around half a minute on Madrazo, Phinney, Morton and Sicard, with Barguil and a fading Monsalve next.
Velits is fighting hard to keep his Top 10 spot. He’s a minute and a half behind the Madrazo group where Barguil is his main rival, but Alarcon and Galta might still overtake him as well if he loses too much.
Speaking of losing too much: Despite the initially slow pace of the peloton, Machado is currently another four minutes behind Velits. The gaps aren’t very large behind him in the GC, he stands to drop quite a few places today.
But let’s get back to the front, where Guldhammer has enough energy left to finish ahead of the GC contenders. Just like with Galta, we’ll have to wait and see how much this does for him in the GC.
Denifl still has a small gap, as does the group behind him, but now Madrazo, Sicard and Morton attack in unison to catch up. Remember, Lecuisinier is just 24 seconds behind Morton’s third overall place!
Denifl finishes fourth, he would need just over a minute on Phinney to gain another spot in the GC and enter the Top 5.
Exactly five minutes behind Henao Montoya, Dombrowski outsprints Lecuisinier to take fifth place today and confirm his second place overall. Schleck finishes with the same time, a good result to cap off a really disappointing Tour for the GT titan of years past. The clock is ticking for Morton now!
Alarcon also finishes with that group. He falls behind Galta in the GC, but he still has a decent chance to move back into the Top 10 if he jumps past two of Barguil, Machado and Velits.
Madrazo leads the next four riders over the line at … + 5’23. That’s right: Morton stays on the podium by one single second! What a gut punch for Lecuisinier, having clawed his way back from a two-minute deficit after the Pyrenees. Phinney loses one more place and ends up fifth overall, but stays ahead of Denifl, Sicard remains seventh.
Barguil and Monsalve finish 13th and 14th. The French started the day in 10th overall and loses a spot to Galta (who’s safely in the Top 10 by now), but he will certainly jump Machado, so it’s him vs. Alarcon and Velits for the final two Top 10 spots. Alarcon trailed him by 1’11 … but Barguil manages to limit his losses here to 42 seconds. He stays ahead of the Venezuelan and inside of the Top 10!
Monsalve overtakes Machado as well, but he also drops behind Henao Montoya, Guldhammer and Schleck to eventually end up in 16th overall.
Wellens had a tough day here. He, too, loses a place to Galta and wins one against Machado, and he stays ahead of Schleck by just three seconds, but both Henao Montoya and Guldhammer pass him. The Fablok leader finishes the day 14th overall.
In a bigger group with some of the top domestiques, Velits is suffering on his way to the line. He was eigth overall before today, with just under two minutes on Barguil and just over three on Alarcon. He comes in almost exactly two minutes behind Barguil, but only 2’40 behind Alarcon to end up 10th overall! A great result for him and Aegon!
Lopez finishes almost nine minutes behind Henao Montoya today, but he keeps his 18th place overall and the white jersey!
Machado ends up a whopping 12 minutes behind today’s winner. In a sad final-day collapse, he drops from 9th all the way down to 17th overall. The way this ended may leave a bit of a sour taste, but overall, I think it was a very decent race for wild card team Andorra here.
Madrazo’s ninth place today means that for the first time in 19 days, Demare will not be the leader of the points classification at the end of the day. However, he will still get to wear it on the Champs Élysees tomorrow, and a 14th place (or, depending on what Madrazo does, two places ahead of the Spaniard) would be enough to take it back - you’d think that should be doable.
Unfortunately, due to the high pace of today’s stage, a few riders will have to end their Tour adventure one day early. Bouhanni and Viviani are the final riders to make the cut, just half a minute before the time limit hits, and the French sprinter will take over as the final lanterne rouge of this race. Five riders miss that time limit: Howson Oram Nelson Stauff Atkins
Obviously, this is especially painful for Nelson and Stauff, who could have played a decent role in tomorrow’s expected sprint finale.
If nothing out of the ordinary happens, our final GC is now set in stone. Madrazo can celebrate his second Tour de France win, a victory that was never really in danger once he took over yellow at the end of week two.
Lecuisinier misses his first GT podium by a single second, outdoing Sicard’s four second margin from last year. What a finale there!
Galta makes the biggest jump of the day, moving from 13th all the way up to 8th. But Barguil and Velits keep their spots in the Top 10 due to Machado‘s long fall. Alarcon comes up 26 seconds short.
T-Mobile ends the day with two riders in the Top 15: Henao Montoya goes all the way to 12th, having started the day in 17th place that is quite the achievement. Guldhammer follows in 13th place, ahead of Wellens, Schleck and Monsalve. The EA Vesuvio captain’s final result is probably the biggest shock compared to pre-race expectations, but remember that he lost so much time due to his puncture all the way back on stage 6. If not for that, he would have been in the Top 8-11 range.
With all that said, 160 riders will make their way to Paris tomorrow to answer the final few remaining questions of this race: Will Demare get his green jersey back? Will a GC contender randomly lose some time? And then of course, who will take the prestigeous stage win in front of the Arc de Triomphe? Tune in again tomorrow to find out!
Tour de France 
