We’re only two days away from Paris, but those two days pack quite a punch. It starts today with a relatively short stage, 131 kilometers to Tignes. The main attraction is the Col de l’Iseran, a HC climb around two thirds into the day.
Madrazo made a big step towards the overall win yesterday, but outside of that, there are still many things to watch out for. Number one: The podium battle.
2
Taylor Phinney
Grieg - Maersk
+ 3'13
3
Joseph Dombrowski
eBuddy
+ 3'29
4
Lachlan Morton
Bennelong - Mitchelton
+ 4'14
5
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier
Festina - OAKA
+ 4'24
6
Stefan Denifl
SPAR - Siam Cement
+ 5'35
Number two: The fight to stay in or get into the Top 10.
8
Tiago Machado
Andorra Cycling Project
+ 10'04
9
Peter Velits
Aegon - Lavazza
+ 10'53
10
Warren Barguil
Moser - Sygic
+ 10'56
11
Jose Alarcon
Repsol - Netflix
+ 12'19
12
Miguel Angel Lopez
Evonik - ELKO
+ 12'46
13
Rasmus Guldhammer
T-Mobile
+ 13'28
14
Tim Wellens
Fablok - Bank BGZ
+ 14'26
15
Yonathan Monsalve
Farfetch Pro Cycling
+ 14'32
Number three: The mountain classification.
1
Gregory Brenes
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
111
2
Miguel Angel Lopez
Evonik - ELKO
103
3
Tiago Machado
Andorra Cycling Project
80
4
Peter Velits
Aegon - Lavazza
70
5
Hugh Carthy
Farfetch Pro Cycling
65
Number four: The points classification.
1
Arnaud Demare
Team Puma - SAP
148
2
Angel Madrazo
Gazelle
134
3
Taylor Phinney
Grieg - Maersk
126
And, connecting to that, of course number five: The stage win. Here, it comes down to whether a breakaway can stay ahead - the length, or lack thereof, of the final climb might suit them. In any other case, Madrazo has to be the top favorite, due to his dominance on the previous two mountain top finishes - although Morton also has a stage win to his name already, all the way back at La Planche des Belles Filles. Let’s find out:
Shapira scored a second place from a breakaway before, but maybe that wasn’t enough: He tries again today. Danacik played a role in breakaways in the first week but has been more quiet recently, but he’s the first to respond now. Carthy is third, he on the other hand was very active recently.
Gilanipoor starts the next array of attacks, followed by Brenes, Cataford, the mountain stage breakaway staple Velits, and Galta. The Slovak has moved all the way up to ninth overall in the past few days - surely he won’t be allowed to break free?
He is for now. After a long struggle, the group managed to establish a lead of two minutes, but the peloton hasn’t sat up just yet.
It’s a weird situation. Many different teams take turns at the front of the peloton, including Gazelle and Andorra, but also EA Vesuvio, SPAR, Evonik and more. For a few dozen kilometers, the gap oscillates between 1’30 and 2’30 in a constant battle between the two groups. Many riders have been dropped from the pack already.
Galta increases the pace up front in an effort to stay ahead of the peloton and breaks the group. Brenes is the first to crack, then Carthy, Danacik and Shapira can’t keep up either. But the problem for the chasing pack is more likely Velits, not any one of them.
Carthy finds a second gear and crosses the line at the first mountain sprint first, now ahead of a trio of Galta, Danacik and Cataford, Velits has fallen behind a bit. This is very curious, although, and I can’t stress this enough, we’re still in the flat-ish part of the stage. But everyone is pacing like crazy.
Seven of the escapees reunited on the way towards Col de l’Iseran, but Brenes stayed behind.
He would soon be swept up by the peloton, where Repsol and Andorra do the bulk of the work and continue to keep the escapees within two minutes.
But those two teams eventually ran out of gas and others didn’t have the same fervor. Halfway up the Iseran, the seven men up front have increased their lead to four minutes.
Here’s what the final 45 kilometers of this stage look like. Another 7 to the summit of the Iseran, then a long descent before the Montée de Tignes, followed by a short flat section to the finish.
There are still two kilometers to go on the climb, but Carthy feels good! He attacks!
Galta and Velits lead the chase, Gilanipoor with them, but Carthy is just stronger, at least for now. He crosses the summit with more than a minute on his former companions and more than five on the peloton.
Cataford and Danacik lose touch just below the summit.
In roughly the same spot as Carthy five minutes earlier, Lopez makes a move from the peloton. For one, he secures four mountain points, but also Galta would currently move past him in the GC, which is reason enough to try to provoke the rest of the pack to increase the pace.
Brenes had enough left in him for one short acceleration to take the three mountain points behind Lopez, keeping his lead at seven.
Lopez opens a gap of around a minute on the downhill, but he has to sustain it over the flat to the foot of the final climb to make it worth it.
Carthy also still has a minute and a half on his four primary chasers, and by now six minutes on the peloton. Incredibly, this still isn’t enough to gain even a single place for the man who’s currently 19th overall.
Cataford and Danacik made it back to the main breakaway group and the six reduced the gap to Carthy to just under a minute. 8,5 kilometers remain, 7 of them upwards.
On the downhill, a split occurred in the peloton and the main man on the wrong side of it is Henao Montoya, 18th overall.
This is the situation at the foot of the Montée de Tignes. It’s looking promising for another breakaway win, and Galta looks set to make a jump in the GC as well - how big is still to be decided, though. Velits will overtake Machado to move into 8th overall if nothing crazy happens, and he even jumps past Sicard in the current virtual GC, but he has to keep more than four minutes of this current gap to make that happen.
Side note, eventhough it’s not really relevant: Impressive showing by Demare who is still in the second half of the peloton after the Iseran.
Lopez may have overextended himself on the flat, he is caught only a few hundred meters into the climb. Majka has taken the lead in the peloton, is Dombrowski planning another attack? The previously split peloton has reunited at this point.
Carthy continues his steady pace and keeps the gap consistently at around a minute. After many days of trying, could this be his big moment?
Attacks start in the peloton and it’s Schleck who moves first! Denifl, Morton and Lecuisinier follow immediately.
With Madrazo on their heels, they get a gap quickly. Dombrowski was caught off-guard, so his teammates try to bring them back.
When they do, Morton immediately accelerates again. He’s got a podium place to regain, after all!
Madrazo leads the efforts to bring the Australian back and as usual, that thins out the group mightily. Guldhammer (13th) didn’t make the cut …
… and neither did Lopez (12th), but the white jersey is hit much harder. His long attack earlier apparently left him completely empty, he’s already four minutes behind the group around Madrazo.
Carthy crosses the summit alone, quietly inserting himself in the polkadots conversation. He extended his lead to more than 1’20 and with only 1,5 flat kilometers left, he rides towards an uncontested stage win. What a great effort!
It’s a bit surprising that his chasers didn’t do more to attack him, maybe they just couldn’t. But not only did they give up on the stage win, the favorites are now also within a minute and a half of them, negating much of the GC gains for Galta and Velits.
Although Velits will definetely still overtake Machado. The Andorra leader falls behind the other contenders alongside Henao Montoya and Barguil.
Only a few seconds later, Phinney has to let go as well! He’s about to lose his podium place if he can’t recover!
Madrazo brings Morton back, shedding Monsalve and Alarcon from the group in the process. Wellens still hangs on, he could make a solid jump in the GC today.
But before we think about the GC, let’s celebrate today’s worthy winner. After a 40 kilometer solo, Carthy tops off an aggressive few days with a fantastic stage win!
Galta opens the sprint of the other escapees, still looking for valuable bonus seconds while Shapira tries go for another second place finish. Danacik couldn’t keep up anymore in the final few meters of the climb.
And neither could Lecuisinier and Wellens in the group of the favorites! They have to hurry now to avoid a time gap!
Neither Galta nor Shapira finish second, but instead it’s Gilanipoor who wins the sprint!
Velits and Cataford finish fifth and sixth, 15 seconds behind the others but ahead of the sprinting GC riders.
Dombrowski and Madrazo overtake Danacik in the final meters, the latter ends up ninth. Schleck and Sicard also finish with them.
Morton and Denifl really struggled in the end and are hit with what seems like a pretty draconian timing decision - they lose almost half a minute to Dombrowski and the others just ahead of them. Lecuisinier and Wellens get timed another 14 seconds later.
Monsalve and Alarcon finish 40 seconds behind the two of them, 1’20 behind the yellow jersey group and 12 seconds ahead of Barguil, the three take places 16 to 18 today.
But the big story of course is the fall of Phinney. That might sound a bit dramatic, granted, but he does fall from the podium, at least for now, dropping from second to fourth. Dombrowski is second overall now, a bit more than a minute ahead of Morton in third place, but Morton, Phinney and Lecuisinier in fifth are only 24 seconds apart, with the French as close to the podium as he has been all race!
Henao Montoya and Machado follow another thirty seconds later. The latter drops one place to 10th, the former actually gains one spot …
… because Lopez completely implodes. He finishes 80th today, almost 12 minutes behind Carthy and now has to be really, really happy about all that time he had gained on the Brit so far. Lopez falls to 18th in the GC and Carthy is all of a sudden “only” four and a half minutes behind him, in the GC and then obviously also in the young riders classification.
Interestingly, and almost a bit under the radar, Carthy has also passed Lopez in the mountain classification with all the points he collected today. He trails Brenes by only three points now, Lopez is another four behind. That’s going to be an exciting battle to watch tomorrow.
The points jersey also stays on the same shoulders for another day, but that, too, is becoming an increasingly close affair. Demare now has six points more than Madrazo, but with only one more mountain stage left, he can be a bit more optimistic than he maybe was before today.
We’ve already discussed most of the changes in the GC, but not all of them. Galta moves up from 17th to 13th today, Wellens goes from 14 to 12, jumping past Guldhammer, who drops to 16th. Monsalve and Schleck both improved by one spot in the wake of the Lopez debacle, but that region is still very close.
As a final note, all riders made the time limit again today. See you tomorrow for the penultimate stage of the race, the final hurdle for the GC contenders.
Tour de France 
