The peloton gets into somewhat mountaneous terrain today. The stage is categorized as hilly, and rightfully so, but these aren’t the small ramps of two days ago. That is underscored by the first two category three and the first category two mountain sprints of the race - Marildo Yzeiraj has to fear for his mountain jersey here, with 10 points being awarded at the Côte des Trois Épis alone, compared to the 13 he currently has.
Looking at stage favorites, back-to-back winner Arnaud Demare is the obvious choice assuming this plays out with moderate selections and all puncheurs in the first group at the finish line. Nick Van der Lijke could also have an eye on this stage to improve on his modest results so far.
There’s also the chance that today will turn into the first serious test for the GC contenders with the ascents ridden like actual climbs. In that case, the quickest of them like Phinney and Guldhammer could have a say in today’s fight for the win. Finally, this could also be an opportunity for the first breakaway win of the race.
Mottin is the first man to attack. He already tried unsuccessfully yesterday - let’s see if he’s got better luck today. Kulimbetov follows, he has been active on previous stages as well, also without getting into the final break.
After a while, we have an eight men group, the biggest of the race so far. In addition to the aforementioned, it includes teammates Vangstad and Pruus, Schönberger, Brown, Van Winden and Kireva. But there’s still action behind them, so they aren’t secure yet.
It’s basically a one man pursuit at the moment with Felline at the helm in the peloton. But surely he alone can’t bring eight riders back?
Indeed, he cannot. He held them at around a minute for a while, but once he dropped off the front, the peloton relaxed the pace and allowed the group to get away. So let’s have a quick look at the group:
Six of the eight are within two minutes of the yellow jersey; due to four bonus seconds from yesterday’s exploits, Schönberger leads his companions by four seconds at + 1’50. He’s also the only rider in contention for the white jersey and one of the better puncheurs, but there are a number of similarly strong riders including Pruus, Brown, Vangstad and Kulimbetov. They will probably be the ones fighting for mountain points, none of them have any at this point.
The peloton took it easy for a while, letting the gap grow to around four minutes, but a coalition of four to five teams has managed to bring it back down to two minutes even before we get to today’s main difficulties. Speaking of:
Here’s a more detailed look at what the riders are going to be facing over the next 50 kilometers. The climbs are relatively uneven with multiple sectors over ten percent but also somewhat less steep sections in between.
Brown leads the breakaway throughout the first part of the Côte du Haut Koenigsbourg and the first rider has to drop: As would be expected, it’s Mottin, arguably one of the two worst puncheurs/climbers of the group.
The other? Van Winden, who falls behind only a few hundred meters later. Brown still in charge, the group has increased its advance to the peloton a little bit. They’re four kilometers from the first summit.
Brown accelerated from the front and simply had the strength to pull all the way through. Pruus had a quick acceleration in the final hundred meters but came from too far back, Kulimbetov finishes third as they collect six, four and two points each.
The intermediate sprint is still fiercly contested, Pruus takes it. Mottin and Van Winden are already back in the peloton, which is again just over two minutes away.
A few riders have already fallen behind the peloton. They include Stauff and Yzeiraj as well as Nelson and four of his teammates. The other three are even further behind as the last riders on the road - Podium Ambition is making a strong case for the lanterne rouge in the team classification here.
Grieg - Maersk have taken control of the pack on the second climb with Laengen and Würtz, and they bring down the gap to the escapees below a minute.
In an effort to keep the peloton at bay at least until the summit two kilometers from now, Vangstad accelerates. His companions all try to follow and can do so for now.
He does manage to create seperation after a while though and rides towards 10 points in the mountain classification. Still, since he did not collect any points on the previous climb, that would not be enough for the jersey. Brown on the other hand could take it with a second place at the sprint.
But he can do even better than that! With a steady pace, he manages to overtake Vangstad and improve his points total to 16!
Here’s a quick look at the provisional mountain classification. Cavagna has already fallen behind and it’s rather unlikely that Pruus will be able to stay in front all the way up the final climb - so congratulations to Nathan Brown!
The peloton catches the break just as they start the descent, but it did not cross the summit in one piece. Lopez finds himself in a small group just half a minute behind what is the main group of 32 riders. With him are the likes of Arndt, Brenes, Velits and Machado.
Brambilla finds himself another 30 seconds behind in a group with white jersey contender Carthy.
But while those two groups would make it back to the front before the foot of the next climb, the same can’t be said for Guldhammer. He was in a terrible position on the previous ascent and is in danger of losing a good chunk of time today, currently almost two minutes behind the first group. Also, it should be noted that Ulissi, who had ambitions for today, is even further behind at the moment.
Gazelle has taken the lead as we head into the final climb of the day with Vervaeke and Bibby. Madrazo already brings himself in position on the other side of the road, Morton, Dombrowski and Lecuisinier are close by.
Demare sits in the middle of this group surrounded by teammates and the Grieg - Maersk squad with Phinney, and you can see Guldhammer trying to work his way back at the front of the chasing group.
With just over a kilometer from the summit, Sicard goes on the attack! He showed his good form two days ago already. Guldhammer made a miraculous recovery and is the first to counter, followed by Chernetskiy, Alarcon and Wellens! Arndt leads the peloton, trying to keep it together for Demare!
Sicard’s move provoked a massive selection! Only 22 riders remain with him as he leads them over the summit. Brambilla, Carthy and Brenes are the biggest names left out, Demare made the jump! Still 13,5 kilometers to go, but a gap of about a minute opened in no time here.
Just at the bottom of the descent, we have another acceleration by Alarcon. And there’s a small gap opening up behind the first seven riders who follow him!
It’s Schleck who closes that gap, so the 22 riders enter the final five kilometers together, still more than a minute in front of the rest. Demare has stayed at the back of the group so far and attacks might still keep coming, but currently he has to be the big favorite for the finale.
But as I said, we’re not done with attacks yet! Sicard goes again and he immediately gets some seperation.
The French seems to have found the perfect moment as the other favorites just stare at each other and no one takes responsibility, evidenced by the fact that the second group on the road is almost about to catch up. As Sicard’s advance hits half a minute, Alarcon has seen enough and tries to go after him.
This finally provokes Arndt to increase the pace and he brings him back. Demare is now in great position, surrounded by the top GC contenders …
… but Sicard passes the flamme rouge alone, now 40 seconds in front of his rivals!
And there’s no stopping him! What a great tactical move to take the stage win and make put some valuable time into his rivals!
The sprint behind him - 25 seconds later - is unspectacular, Demare takes it with ease, strengthening his grasp on the green jersey and he gets to keep yellow until tommorow, but he misses out on three stage wins in a row. Phinney takes third, and eight nice bonus seconds along with it.
Lecuisinier, Madrazo and Dombrowski are coming next.
The Brambilla / Carthy / Brenes group ends up losing 40 seconds, an early blow to the ambitions of some of the riders in there.
An exciting stage shuffles the cards anew ever so slightly ahead of tomorrow’s team time trial. We were always going to have a new yellow jersey after that, since Puma is one of the three to five worst time trialing squads here, but it was Phinney who seemed likely to take over the GC, with Grieg - Maersk as top favorites. Now, he’s more than a minute behind Sicard instead of the 32 seconds he had before today, a much, much tougher task for him and his team, especially since Air France - KLM haven’t brought any TT slouches either.
We also have a new wearer of the polkadots in Brown and the race for the white jersey has become a little clearer with both Ndayisenga and Carthy losing time to Lopez - although the latter is expected to lose a bunch tomorrow himself. As a bonus in addition to the stage win, Sicard gets to wear green tomorrow as he passes Stauff and is second in the points classification now. On the other end of the GC, Vanderpool confirms his status as the lanterne rouge, teammate Quaade only a few minutes ahead of him in second-to-last.
Tour de France 
