Going for glory on the final climb with the yellow jersey of Taaramäe buried in his wheel didn't work yesterday - so why not challenge the Estonian to a long-range duel - or, if he doesn't follow, build a gap early on? 80 seconds is what is needed for the Slovenian to reclaim yellow. The stage is set for an epic finish and what could be one so tight as to match Moreau against Vinokourov back in the first MG season!
The racing should be fast and furious and so only the best will be able to gain a stage win from long-range one would think. But really predictions are futile today. It's a new kind of stage for Le Tour, it's the final chance for anyone to change their GC position, and this is the Tour de France. Magic happens here.
A reminder as we await the flag dropping in Bagneres-du-Luchon of the GC fight. So much still to play for - aside from the battle for yellow, look especially to the miniscule gaps of 12 and 6 seconds respectively for the podium and for sixth place:
And it's Vicenzo Nibali attacking almost as soon as the flag is dropped, the Italian with a few spots to gain after a disappointing day yesterday, and possibly chasing a stage win as Galta did to take something real away from this Tour de France for himself. Following him is Brambilla (17th GC, 40'18), good to see the eBuddy man on the offensive, it's what he and his directeur sportif both said they would try before the stage!
Behind him Nerz, of course he's there! The polka dot jersey is his for sure now, but the real battle for him today is for the stage win that has somehow eluded him. But this is his seventh breakaway in nine days, including stage win fights in the last two. Are the legs there? Let's also remember he's in the top 15 on GC now and is fighting there too! Kolesnikov (18th GC, 40'42) with a good move also here as well as Reis (29th GC (54'10).
Kruijswijk (27th GC, 51'57 | 7th KOM, 68pts) counterattacking here, two stage podiums in two days and the Dutchman is not giving up on the stage win dream, and neither is Egger, fifth yesterday.
All those riders together now and already nearly two minutes ahead. Schelling's UBS squad tries to reel them in but the Swiss rider maybe should have just gone himself!
The breakaway all together and riding well, but the gap is still just two minutes due to the brutal pace of the peloton, which is already down to just 50 riders with the likes of Vinhas and Nesset dropped already!
Less than 30 riders in the pack now and many of the big names are isolated, I can see a lime rider in there but nobody from Festina or T-Mobile, as Spilak, Taaramäe and Lecuisinier fend for themselves behind the Gazelle duo of Karnulin and Formolo who are setting pace! This is an insane stage already!
Zardini the biggest GC name dropped though, but a big blow for Dekker!
And now Simon Spilak with 50km still to go is taking advantage of the chaos, on the front and forcing Taaramae to close some gaps! Behind another 10 or so riders are dropped, incliuding Haig and Slagter, just 17 men in this group and asides from Ricco for Spilak and four Gazelle riders together, there are no domestiques and if Spilak gets away it's all on Taaramae to chase!
The breakaway group meanwhile aren't waiting but may end up caught very soon, they have just a minute to Spilak who is really challenging Taaramae here! You can't accuse Simon Spilak of leaving it too late or not being ambitious enough here, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain today!
Spilak crests the climb 15 seconds ahead of Taaramae, who still has the three Frenchmen and Gesink in tow! Behind we hear Wellens is attacking to try and bridge across and attack Galta!
Dekker and Intxausti don't want to miss this split either and ride away from the group, which consists of Keinath, Galta, Sosnitskiy, Kangert, Karnulin, Haig, Ricco, Bongiorno, Formolo and Schelling. Galta among others really need to catch back up before the next climb!
Taaramäe with a great descent here to catch Spilak and the breakaway, the rest of the top 5 are in tow but Barguil couldn't follow over the top and is now somewhere in the middle, we'll get eyes on him soon.
Will Spilak go again on the Col de Val Louron-Azet or will he wait? Will Lecuisinier fancy a stage win or even podium raid? How will the breakaway riders behave? We've got a slight breather before we find out as the riders take a small road to the lovely town of Azet after this descent.
Race radio saying that Barguil is back with Wellens now, not far ahead of Intxausti and Dekker. Here we can see Nico Keinath bringing Galta along with him as he looks to catch up, and it looks like those six might have their own battle behind the leaders to see who finishes where from sixth to eleventh on GC!
That's not to be, as coming off the descent Galta is caught by the Gazelle-lead chasing group, an awful position for him as everyone else caught up to the leaders as they slowed down with no domestiques (bar Reis for Intxausti actually)!
But now there's some action again, Nibali doesn't like the arrival of Keinath and Intxausti and attacks on a small rise in the road, and Spilak thinks this is the ticket and chases on after the Italian, along with Egger, who has the least to lose in this group!
Spilak isn't interested in their help and sails past the duo (who sit up), 38km to go and 3km until the climb starts and this is a proper attack from the two-time Tour winner, wow!
However Gesink surprisingly helps Taaramäe with the chasing and so Spilak knows he's better off waiting - and, in my opinion, perhaps to have a chat with some potential allies! However he has to be careful - if he wants companions that invites extra chasers.
Meanwhile there's 1'40 back to the Galta group, and already that means Barguil is back in provisional sixth. Galta would need to lose seven minutes to drop further though - however on Stage 20 of a Grand Tour, with two climbs left and the latter very tough, that's possible.
They hit the climb fo the Val Louron-Azet and Reis looks to get away before Spilak goes again, he's followed by Nibali and Nerz!
A smart move, yes, but they don't get very far until the Slovenian goes for a third time today, what a vicious attack this is! Taaramäe not interested in a duel across the Pyrenees today though: no response here from anyone. Will Gesink help chase again or will the yellow jersey have to keep the gap down himself?
Me oh my this is Simon Spilak at his most determined, no hesitation at all this time, he doesn't want to see his rivals again until 80 seconds after he's crossed the finish line. However refusing to take that hint is Nerz, who is absolutely desperate for the stage win and may hope if he helps Spilak open the gap up to above 72 seconds then the Slovenian won't need the bonuses and will eschew the win to him!
However there's still a long way until we can discuss that, especially if Gesink keeps helping!
However yet again it is Robert Gesink chasing down the green jersey, and the group is splintering now. What Spilak really needs is the Dutchman on board for a double attack for 1st and 3rd! Nerz, Nibali, and Reis all up here too, whilst Sicard and Lecuisinier are battling to bridge the gap caused by these accelerations! Still 5.6km until the summit of the climb!
Nibali again on the attack, followed by Nerz and also Romain Sicard, who comes straight through from behind! By virtue of that Gesink and Taaramae also follow! Spilak is on the opposite side of the road, how does he play this?
Oh and Romain Sicard can't hold the wheel and so polka dot and green are free of yellow (and white)! They're chasing every-one-of-those-colours-and-more-splashed-onto-a-jersey-by-a-four-year-old!
Gesink again just acting like a superdomestique for Taaramae, stitching things together but dropping everyone else but Lecuisinier, Sicard and Wellens! Will Spilak try another time to break the elastic?
Galta, meanwhile, has been chasing back on solo and has almost caught the leaders, which have now been rejoined by everyone else after a tactical standstill after the latest regrouping.
And now the slowdown is so great not only has the Norwegian got back on but the entire group behind him too, 29 riders at the front!
Well, it's certainly not for lack of trying that Nibali, Nerz and Spilak haven't broken free yet, I'll tell you that much...
I don't mean to jinx it, but this time seems different as the trio quickly gain 30 seconds on an evidently tiring, or at least less enthusiastic, Robert Gesink!
However the time isn't right for the Slovenian, as maybe Taaramae convinces Gesink to keep going, who waits for the group again, but Nerz has continued on and is now a minute ahead! Boy I really hope the German can take this stage win and build up a big lead, he deserves it more than anyone!
No more attacks here, and Nerz extends his gap to 2'47 over the top of the Col de Val Louron-Azet, and we can see across the valley to Saint-Lary-Soulan, and the beginnings of the Col de Portet as well! That's where this Tour de France will be decided, and where Nerz has his final shot at a stage win!
Perhaps Spilak has stopped because he now has a more valuable position in the peloton than ahead of it, as his teammate, Ricco, has survived the re-dropping of the chasing groups and is the only one for any of the top 5 contenders!
17km to go for Nerz, he's almost on the Col de Portet now after a calm descent for all parties. We learned a few days ago that this new climb to the Tour de France has not yet been paved to the top, so we'll get a gravel finish today! A reminder it is nearly 16km at an average of 8.8%, a super tough climb an amphitheatre that will provide plenty of drama! 2'19 the gap for the German, he'll need to extend it on the lower slopes to survive for the stage win!
And here we go, Simon Spilak won't sit up now, as soon as the road goes up he attacks and this time, Taaramae is out to play! 16km to decide the winner of this Tour de France - yesterday Spilak had the opportunity but couldn't do it. Can he snap the elastic here on the new mythique of the Col de Portet?
A strong first blow from Spilak but Taaramae survives it, 14.5km to go and these two have halved the gap already to poor Dominik Nerz! Oh this is awful, it's not done yet but the ingredients for another heartbreak are all coming together.
However Spilak and Taaramae are not yet clear to have their typical mano-a-mano duel, as Sicard and Gesink wage their own battle right in their wheel! Lecuisinier and Barguil as usual not far behind.
The usual suspects are out for some fun in the last mountain stage, but who will come out on top?
Spilak attacks again here with 13km to go here, Rein Taaramäe is a wee bit lethargic in response here and Simon Spilak has a gap!
We said the pivotal moment of this Tour de France may well be when Taaramäe rode away on the Tourmalet, but Simon Spilak may well have topped it as the Estonian just can't respond here! Sicard counterattacks, and if Taaramäe doesn't follow this it'll be a damned tough job keeping the gap down over the next 40 minutes!
And Sicard can't get away, because Taaramae has his mojo back! After a brief crisis he is working hard on the front to save his Tour! 30 seconds the gap as Spilak settles in for the longest twelve kilometres of his life. What a finish to this Tour de France we are in for!
Behind Wellens has attacked, and already passed a tiring Warren Barguil as he too looks to attack Galta, and the Porto-Prio duo of Reis and Intxausti are also getting away. Wellens needs a huge seven minutes on the Norwegian, but Intxausti needs but one to catch Dekker, who's leading the rest alongside Galta.
Nibali is paying for his efforts on the Val Louron-Azet as he's now really struggling to keep up with the Dekker/Galta group with still 13km left! Barguil also heading backwards, passed by the Porto duo and great news for Galta as he looks to protect sixth spot.
On the topic of Galta, someone reminded text in and reminded me earlier that he leads Barguil by a slim six seconds on GC - the very same six seconds he took at the intermediate sprint yesterday in bonficiations!
Rein Taaramäe absolutely not giving Spilak any more time, they're like for like here and the gap is staying just above 30 seconds with 11.5km to go.
A breakdown of the bonification system that might be so important today: 20 seconds for 1st, 12 for 2nd, 8 for third. If we assume Spilak wins the stage, he then needs: 72 seconds' gap if Taaramäe comes 2nd, 68 if he comes third, and just one minute if he doesn't place, which is possible with this workload.
A twist in the tale here as once again Gesink is okay with working when asked by Taaramäe, perhaps eager to help neutralise Sicard. An even crazier twist: short-term, this is helping Spilak as, if we are correct, his gap is now up to 40 seconds and growing! Rein Taaramäe must know this is a risk - but he clearly doesn't want to do this alone and is prepared to give Spilak some leash if it means being fresher at squeaky bum time!
Behind Nerz is dropped by this pace at last, and Wellens is almost back on, what a ride from the Belgian to bridge across whilst this titanic battle is going on!
Lecuisinier attacks, and good on him! The young Frenchman has nothing left to play for but a stage win on the Col de Portet, and he decides he's not going to let it ride away from him, he won't die wondering!
But there could be another reason to this attack. As many of you are aware until last year he and Spilak were teammates and I know from speaking to the Frenchman that he left an impression on him and was a mentor and a friend to the young talent. What better way to pay back his friend than to help him win Le Tour one more time?
Nobody responds - these three aren't interested in the stage win or sudden increases in pace right now. The next 10km are about waiting for the right time to attack for Sicard, keeping ahold of that gap for Taaramäe, and making strange tactical moves for Gesink I assume.
Current gap is 37 seconds, as Lecuisinier catches Spilak and comes through onto the front, is his former teammate the ally Spilak needs to fight off Taaramae and Gesink? I don't imagine the Frenchman will get a free stage win unless he can get the gap up over 80 seconds, and I think that may be what he has to do!
Behind Reis drops off Intxausti at Wellens' wheel, he hasn't completely bonked but he looks like his job is done, great ride!
9km to go and Spilak and Taaramäe both taking mini-breathers here behind their companions, the gap closing slightly back down to 32 seconds as Gesink seems more valuable than Lecuisinier right now! Such a strange tactical move from the Dutchman means some lines are being drawn in the sand here that may be hard, albeit subconciously, to get over once this race is done for certain teams and riders.
The slight drop in pace has let the resurgent Tim Wellens back on.
But now Gesink is tiring, Spilak is whispering sweet nothings into his old protege's ear, and the Festina manager must be loving this - the gap is up to 55 seconds as his two favourite sons turn the Tour de France into their show! Almost brings a tear to the eye as the student aids the aging master in his big shot at glory before he declines!
Galta, aided by his companions, has managed to reel Barguil back in, and with the Breton tired put himself in the driving seat for sixth place! He's also shelled all but Brambilla, Keinath, a very helpful Dekker and a resurgent Nibali! Great work from the Norwegian
