- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
It's not a method without it's issues, but the formulas are in place, and it doesn't take too much work to update them - so let's see what they've come up with.
Category Rankings
Hills
Stage Races
Sprints
1
ENI - MOL
Andorra Project
Delvaux
2
Compal-Merida
Compal-Merida
Rothaus - Aegon
3
Valio - DeLaval
GCN ProTeam
Valio - DeLaval
4
Eddie Stobart
Banco de Bogota
Equinor Pro Cycling
5
BNZ Cycling
Valio - DeLaval
GCN ProTeam
6
Cerveceria Costa Rica
Cerveceria Costa Rica
Telia-Brussels Airlines
7
Campari - Super Dry
BNZ Cycling
Sauber Petronas
8
Delvaux
Oberfranken
Swisslion Cycling
9
DK Žalgiris
Adastra - Argon 18
BNZ Cycling
10
Sauber Petronas
Telia-Brussels Airlines
Eddie Stobart
Time Trial
Cobbles
Climbs
1
Swisslion Cycling
Delvaux
Compal-Merida
2
Andorra Project
Rothaus - Aegon
Adastra - Argon 18
3
Banco de Bogota
Cerveceria Costa Rica
Banco de Bogota
4
Rothaus - Aegon
Sauber Petronas
ENI - MOL
5
Sauber Petronas
GCN ProTeam
Cerveceria Costa Rica
6
Valio - DeLaval
Swisslion Cycling
Andorra Project
7
Adastra - Argon 18
ENI - MOL
Eddie Stobart
8
Compal-Merida
Campari - Super Dry
Telia-Brussels Airlines
9
Campari - Super Dry
Valio - DeLaval
Oberfranken
10
DK Žalgiris
Oberfranken
GCN ProTeam
HL
SR
SP
TT
CO
CL
Adastra - Argon 18
18
9
18
7
11
2
Andorra Project - InGamba
19
1
19
2
12
6
Banco de Bogota
16
4
15
3
16
3
BNZ Cycling Team
5
7
9
15
19
11
Campari - Super Dry
7
12
17
9
8
12
Compal-Merida
2
2
16
8
13
1
Delvaux
8
19
1
18
1
18
DK Žalgiris
9
15
12
10
17
16
Eddie Stobart
4
16
10
14
15
7
ENI - MOL
1
11
11
19
7
4
Equinor Pro Cycling
11
17
4
17
18
15
GCN ProTeam
14
3
5
11
5
10
Oberfranken
17
8
14
16
10
9
Rothaus - Aegon
15
18
2
4
2
19
Sauber Petronas Racing
10
14
7
5
4
17
Swisslion Cycling Team
12
13
8
1
6
13
Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
6
6
13
13
3
5
Telia-Brussels Airlines
13
10
6
12
14
8
Valio - DeLaval
3
5
3
6
9
14
Overall Prediction
1
Valio - DeLaval
2
Compal-Merida
3
ENI - MOL
4
Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
5
Delvaux
6
GCN ProTeam
7
Swisslion Cycling Team
8
Rothaus - Aegon
9
Andorra Project - InGamba
10
Sauber Petronas Racing
11
Campari - Super Dry
12
BNZ Cycling Team
13
Banco de Bogota
14
Adastra - Argon 18
15
Telia-Brussels Airlines
16
Eddie Stobart
17
Oberfranken
18
DK Žalgiris
19
Equinor Pro Cycling
Valio were the only team to feature in five of the category Top 10s and they are predicted to win the title. And the teams relegated from PCT do seem to be the teams to beat, with Compal, ENI, and Costa Rica all placing next, while GCN are 6th.
New teams are picking up the challenge, with Delvaux the highest placed - and particularly strong in R3 and R4. Swisslion and one-season wonders Rothaus both also are predicted higher than any of our continuing CT squads: Andorra seen as the best of them, just ahead of Sauber and Campari.
Valio of course finished bottom of CT in the past, in the 2014 season, and there are signs of positive moment for Adastra who are now predicted 14th - although having beaten them by 20 points last season, Equinor are now expected to avoid that fate this time around.
The overall prediction here is very much in line with my own thoughts, both in terms of my team and others. What's interesting is that this formula places Compal in 2nd, as I think they have been predicted further down in most of the other previews (and I would probably predict them to end a bit lower myself). Guess it will depend on whether Suaza and Zaini can deliver this season - Suaza especially is an interesting CT rider with his 80 mo / 79 acc combo.
As always a nice read. This year even nicer than usual for me
I don't quite class in on the pure climber aspect but that's OK since König has enough race days to lead in everything with a mountain so I'm better off there than the rating suggests I think.
