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Milan - San Remo Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 13-05-2014 20:47
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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 Milan San Remo
The first Monument in 2014: we're heading for the 8th ManGame-edition of Milan - San Remo! One of the longest classics in the world, the famous route (nearly 300km) features well known climbs, a tricky descent near the finish and often windy weather.
And of course it's the same question as every year, wether a sprinter (like last year) or a puncheur (like every year prior to 2013) will take out one of the toughest races on the calendar. It's a special race with a special mix of flat and climbs - so we decided to make a special preview, that will come in two parts: one history and one preview for the 2014 edition!
The History
Since it's first edition in 2007 (won by two-time champion Pozzato), MSR has always suited the puncheurs more than the sprinters. Until last year, where the three big B's dominated the race and sprint - with the biggest B (oonen) taking a prestigious victory over Bewley, who has podium'd MSR two times now.
So that's one of the questions for the 2014 edition: will a puncheur fight his way til the finish ahead of the bunch sprint? And also: will Italy re-claim the title? In seven years, the race was won by an Italian in five editions, with Boonen ending a 4-years-run of consecutive victories for local heroes.
Fun fact: Team Festina (formerly known as Discovery Channel) has been at least in Top-5 here for past five years, with the biggest score in 2012 (where Ulissi and Pozzato went for a 1-2)! As wouldn't this be impressive enough, also Discovery Channel (with SotD already managing the team in 2008) podium'd the classic in it's two first editions! So it's actually seven out of seven with Top-5's for the teams, including two wins (as Samu Sánchez won here in 2008).
Past 5 years | 2013 | | |  Tom Boonen | Pokerstars.com | 7h17'22 |  Sam Bewley | Milka - AVG | s.t. | | Daniele Bennati | Team Puma - SAP | s.t. | | 2012 | | | | Diego Ulissi | Festina - Conec | 7h19'50 | | Filippo Pozzato | Festina - Conec | s.t. | | Gert Steegmans | Bacardi - Ignis | s.t. | | 2011 | | | | Alessandro Ballan | Sony Ericsson | 7h06'34 | | Sam Bewley | Festina - Corona | + 14 | | Santo Anza | Sony Ericsson | s.t. | | 2010 | | | | Filippo Pozzato | Crédit Lyonnais | 7h09'10 | | Gert Steegmans | Rabobank | s.t. | | Alessandro Ballan | SIC Radical - Timerbland | s.t. | | 2009 | | | | Franco Pellizotti | Accumalux - Formex | 7h17'23 |  Samuel Sánchez | Festina | s.t. | | Joaquin Rodriguez | Virgin Media - Caisse d'Epargne | s.t. |
Tom Boonen took out last year's edition in style. Kicking off his sprint right behind Bennati and Bewley, the Belgian pretty much dominated the sprint to the line to add yet another big classic to his palmares.
Two years back, Diego Ulissi made his winning move on the Poggio. The Italian managed to hold off a 13-men-group til the finish, with quite a decent gap ahead of his teammate and former race-winner Pozzato. Reporter Smowz called it "a magnificent career defining moment for Ulissi", who sprinted for a decent 5th place one year later.
The maybe most impressive win in the past three years came by Alessandro Ballan though. The Italian played some nice tactics by his team Sony Ericsson to perfection, attacking the bunch even prior to the Cipressa and managing to maintain a decent gap til the finish! A huge effort for a big win in his career.
Back in 2010, Filippo Pozzato claimed his second MSR-win after already taking out the first MG-edition in 2007. After a quite entertaining (and also different) race, Pozzato attacked a 5-men-group (with Sanchez, Hagen, Ballan and Steegmans) 2km before finish. His winning move.. most aggressive rider, by the way: Jonathon Bellis (British Airways), eventually finishing as 9th.
Five years back, a selective MSR-edition saw Franco Pellizotti eventually winning the sprint of a 3-men-group (Samu Sánchez and Purito as his companions) for an impressive win.. a strong leading group (including world champion Valverde, who later finished 1'21" behind Pellizotti as 5th.. and Boogers, 44" as 4th) set the agenda already prior to the Cipressa, with those three later dropping Valverde and Boogerd.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 13-05-2014 20:47
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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The Startlist/
Thanks to the sprinters dominating the last edition of MSR, we may split the favorites-preview in two parts: one for those fast guys, who are capable of surviving the climbs, and one for the puncheurs, who had been so succesfull in the past editions of this classic.
The Sprinters/
Of course we have to start the preview with the three B's, who made the podium last year.  Tom Boonen will try to defend his title here. The Belgian is still one of the very best, as he once again proved in a tough Tour of Qatar back in January. He also has some nice support in Roger Kluge.
Aiming for the win after two podiums (and the runner-up last year) here:  Sam Bewley. The Kiwi comes off a magnificant 2013 campaign and just like Boonen, the Kiwi proved his strengths in Qatar. His final leadout (if anything like that will happen) won't be the worst, too: Leigh Howard.
 Daniele Bennati, who podium'd the classic riding for Puma last year, ain't exactly a beast like the two other B's. But since he did so well here last season, why shouldn't he be in the mix again?
Several other sprinters are listed as possible threats as well:  Ben Swift also knows how to survive short climbs and adds some decent skills on the flat - definitely a plus for a 300km race like MSR.
 Daryl Impey is one of Aker-MOT's two possible contenders and offers a great mix of climbing and sprinting. Same goes for  Jürgen Roelandts, who have an outsider's chance.  Martin Reimer or Peter Kennaugh (who may struggle on the famous climbs though) could well be in the mix, too.
Then we may have two possible threats in  Nick Van der Lijke or wildcard-entry  Oscar Gatto. Both hilly sprinters, who may suffer against those big names here though. Hoping for a less selective race:  Oscar Avelino,  Georgos Tzortzakis or also  Andreas Stauff.
The Puncheurs/
It's a startlist packed with premium puncheurs and we do have three former race-winners amongst them:
 Diego Ulissi, now riding for recently relegated Bacardi-Itera, will aim to repeat his win from 2012 (with Festina). The Italian is one of those fast finishing puncheurs, who are expected to have the best chances to grab the prestigious victory.
So of course  Filippo Pozzato will be amongst those top-favorites. The two-time MSR-champion joined the promoted VolksWagen-squad and leads a quite dangerous duo with also Aleksandr Flügel at the start.
Last but not least, also  Alessandro Ballan will try to help his new promoted team to do something special in the first Monument in 2014. He may be the main support for Luis Sanchez Gil though, but both are likely to have a free role on the team anyway.
The startlist features some more fast finishers: World Champion Edvald Boasson Hagen to be mentioned first. As said before, it's an interesting duo with also Impey at the start. Both should fancy their chances.
Also Bouyues will have a puncheur beside a dangerous sprinter: Jan Bakelants is one of the best puncheurs and knows how to sprint, too. Same goes for  Simone Ponzi, who's actually a quite strong sprinter. The Italian finished 9th last year, while his best result (4th) happened back in 2011.  Tejay Van Garderen may be listed amongst those fast finishers, too. Even though his sprint ain't exactly special.
The startlist features several more possible favorites, so let's have a short look at those names: Ricco (aiming to continue his team's great run of consecutive Top-5's here), Rui Costa, Ginanni, Gastauer, Claeys, van der Hugenhaben,  Vanendert, Pozzovivo,  Schumacher or  Gilbert may go for great results on a very good day (with some definitely being amongst the top-favorites no matter what). It's hard to name them all and it's even harder to guess the winner. Especially as also some roleurs like Burghardt or  Coppel may play their strengths to perfection.
At least one thing seems certain:  Tinkoff (with several mediocre sprinters),  ING (with Kip) and  Santander (with only a lucky breakaway as a possible chance) will face a tough race.
Edited by tsmoha on 13-05-2014 20:48
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| roturn |
Posted on 13-05-2014 20:52
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Team Manager
Posts: 22045
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
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My win goal. So everything but a win would be disappointing. 
In fact I decided to go the all-puncheur way here as my sprinters would probably not stand a chance and avoid attacking.
That said I have Sanchez, Roux, Ballan, Boom, Vanmarcke, Nooytens here. High flat and high hill. I at least would know how to avoid a sprinter fest here. I hope PCM AI also knows and makes my guys attack a lot and keep a high pace.
Having a former winner also might help.  In the end I hope for a hard race here and then a top10. If there is a sprint I can only hope for a top50 I guess. |
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| Smowz |
Posted on 13-05-2014 20:53
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Team Leader
Posts: 6386
Joined: 09-04-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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Nice history lesson thanks Tsmoha 
This is one where I have taken a punt with Coppel, Ab did okay here last year so you never know!
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| cio93 |
Posted on 13-05-2014 20:57
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World Champion
Posts: 10616
Joined: 29-10-2007
PCM$: 500.00
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Demare to win it! It's only a matter of time until he does, so why not start early?
Realistically, Ponzi continuing his good form on Italian ground wouldn't surprise me.
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| ember |
Posted on 13-05-2014 21:03
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Team Leader
Posts: 7061
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 900.00
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Brilliant preview for a brilliant race!
Ponzi is definitely the man to follow after his amazing performances in Tirreno-Adriatico. He stands out as the big favourite in my eyes. Pozzato should also be one to watch, as Heine mentioned in another thread, his record in Milan - San Remo is something you can't underestimate.
Seeing what kind of disaster AI has made (together with my race planning) of Impey's "co-operation" with Van Heerden, I really have no clue of what to expect from Impey and Boasson Hagen.
I just hope it will be a interesting race with the puncheurs forcing a selection or two, making only the strongest riders, be it sprinters, rouleurs or puncheurs, able to be in the mix for the win. |
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 13-05-2014 21:26
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Team Leader
Posts: 6490
Joined: 13-10-2007
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I'm hoping for more continued displays of either excellent sprinting prowess from Ponzi to take my first goal of the season (a top ten), or to be able to go with the moves over the top of the climbs to get in a break and get a result that way. Though I do have Caruso to cover breaks as back up - which apparently is how my team operates going off China at the start of the season.
Big worries - Ulissi, the continual Ponzi beater. Boonen/Bewley, are their teams strong enough to keep it together and do an effective lead out?
[url=cleavercycling.co.uk]  [/url] |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 09-12-2025 04:47
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 13-05-2014 21:46
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World Champion
Posts: 13564
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Next race, please.
Great introduction, tsmoha!
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 13-05-2014 22:07
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Team Manager
Posts: 31706
Joined: 08-03-2007
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Two cards to play in Swift and Gastauer. No expectations though, let's see what happens. Great preview!
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 13-05-2014 22:11
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 19-02-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Cracking preview Smowz, thanks. Dunno how this is likely to play out in 13, hope it's selective.
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| Roman |
Posted on 13-05-2014 22:50
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4279
Joined: 29-05-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Amazing preview, tsmoha!
Well, I probably should bring in a little bit stronger support team especially with Sergent and Kratochvila, but hopefully mainly Pokerstars can help us to keep the pack together. Another victory for sprinters would be amazing. We should have a big chance against Boonen in a sprint finish in a race with profile like San Remo = if Bewley can survive hills, my sprint train could as well. If a break wins, this is not going to be one of the greatest races for my team...
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 13-05-2014 23:16
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Team Leader
Posts: 6178
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Great job with the preview. My team also brings two leaders in Avelino and Costa, although none of them should be considered a serious threat.
A top10 would be a very good result already, but I'm starting to need another sort of result.
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| roturn |
Posted on 14-05-2014 05:45
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Team Manager
Posts: 22045
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
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wackojackohighcliffe wrote:
Cracking preview Smowz, thanks. Dunno how this is likely to play out in 13, hope it's selective.
How impolite is this! |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 14-05-2014 06:18
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World Champion
Posts: 13662
Joined: 20-06-2011
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Fantastic preview, looking forward to report, rooting for Ponzi here.
You are doing great job with reports and previews everywhere tsmoha, how can you handle it? I thought i read somewhere that man-game has 20+ reporters now and it is usual suspects again and again. 
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 14-05-2014 06:18
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 14-05-2014 07:44
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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@Avin: Thanks for the kind words (to all others, too)! This MSR i had in stock for while now, so like for some other races, it ain't surprising to see us "oldies" more present right now. Hope you won't notice the same in a month though fingerd crossed
@ roturn: Agreed
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| SotD |
Posted on 14-05-2014 07:55
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World Champion
Posts: 12632
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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For the first time in ages I have no goal of getting a good result here. Ricco can ultimately do alright, as can Tzortzakis if the race is ridden slowly. But top 10 is by far a more realistic (although still optimistic) result.
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 14-05-2014 09:30
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 19-02-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Damn lack of an edit function
Smowz and tsmoha sound practically identical so I'm gonna use that as an excuse. Apologies.
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| CountArach |
Posted on 14-05-2014 10:13
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8205
Joined: 14-07-2008
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I come here without too many hopes but a top ten would obviously be nice. I basically packed my team with Stauff, Van der Hugenhaben and then most of my guys with high stamina. Hopefully I'll have a few guys there in the finale.
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| beagle |
Posted on 14-05-2014 10:25
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4235
Joined: 06-10-2007
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Would be great to defend title, but I'm realistic. Everything inside top10 is counting, no matter if Boonen or Ginanni will be there in final.
Great preview Smo..... err, I mean tsmoha
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 14-05-2014 11:42
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3489
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I'm going to take a guess that Burghardt may stand a chance here with his nice Flat stat though it will be hard to beat Bewley |
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