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Herald Sun Tour Discussion
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| CountArach |
Posted on 23-09-2012 13:37
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* Note: Will be posted after Duo Normand and Paris-Tours
And now to one of the four last races in the season and we have yet another race focusing on the sprinters. We start off with two fairly flat stages with no huge difficulties. The third stage looks interesting with a couple of longer and steeper climbs, but nothing that should prove decisive on its own, with the end of the stage coming after a descent. The fourth stage is another sprint one before the crucial 10km time trial on the fifth stage. This is most probably where the race will be decided overall. Finally the race finishes with a short criterium.
The Sprinters
With so many sprint stages it is worth looking at the sprinters first. It is possible that one of them will be our winner, particularly if they can get over the stage three hills and gain some bonus seconds on the other stages.
First up is the home nation’s hope  Allan Davis. He has had a great season so far, particularly when riding on home soil. The team really hasn’t brought anyone for the overall here, so Davis will have their full support, but Hollister also really don’t have that many good riders to help him, with only Martinez for support. The hills may not phase Davis as well, making a top GC placing a real possibility. Hollister really need him to perform here, as they are an outside bet for promotion.
Hoping to challenge the Australian’s dominance is  Peter Kennaugh. While he may struggle a bit more on the hills, he does have a better team around him to help to chase down breaks, if not necessarily a proper lead-out man. The team also has GC ambitions, so it will be interesting to see how they split their resources.
Another sprinter who may struggle on these hills is  Baden Cooke, who is not as fast as he once was, but may be really lifted by his home crowd. Oz have also brought along Renshaw as an outside chance for the sprints here.
Similar to Davis, another man who will not mind the hilly terrain is  Daryl Impey, who should be a chance for a stage win here, as well as potentially a decent GC position. Sutton is also here as an outside chance for Red Bull, or to lead Impey into position.
One of the team known for their sprinters is  Pokerstars, who have both Degenkolb and Guillen here, though it is unknown who will lead them in the sprints. They will have to work something out between them as the rest of the team focuses on the GC.
Some of the other sprinters to watch are the Irishman  Isaac Speirs, the hill-hating  Crescenzo D’Amore, Korean  Sung Baek Park and Rothaus’ backup sprinter  Claudio Cucinotta.
The GC Riders
As said, some of the above riders stand a decent chance of at least a good GC result, but may be just short of winning it. Those looking for a win are the time trialists, and given the course it is a surprisingly weak field that travels to Australia. This means that there is a chance that some of the hilly specialists who have a decent TT will also stand a chance here, if they can force a gap on stage three.
Topping the start list is Andrew Tennant. He will be hoping to get over the hills on stage three and use his TT power to really dominate the TT. He will have a lot of competition in that race, however.
On the other side of the GC contender spectrum is  Matthias Kessler. A true puncheur, his TT ability isn’t too bad, and so he will be hoping for a hard stage three. His team may lack the real depth to harden it up, however.
One of the other teams here fighting for promotion is  UniCredit. They bring Bonnet and Vandborg here to give them two potential leaders in this race. Bonnet in particular is a strong sprinter so might be able to put that to good use if he can steal some bonus seconds. The hills on stage three may pose a problem, however.
One man who fits the bill of time trialist who can ride the hills well is  Kristjan Koren. He stands a real chance of winning the TT stage, whilst also being able to hold the wheels of the top puncheurs. His team is very weak, however, so if there are breaks that need to be caught then they may struggle to help him.
One man usually not mentioned as a favourite in races, but with a course here perfect for him is  Ignas Konovalovas. Strong in the time trial, but also great on the hills, this could be a real chance for him to take a big stage race victory to put the cap on a mediocre season for Cyclevox.
Just as they have two sprinters, Pokerstars also have two GC leaders here. Stef Clement and Jurgen Van Goolen are both strong time trialists who can hold on in the hills. They may not win this, but expect to see both of them well up the standings.
A few other riders to watch out for are puncheur Ben Hermans, aging all-rounder Kim Kirchen, whose Red Bull team will once again hope to sit several riders in the top 20, and double champion of Belarus  Vasili Kiryienka.
Complete Startlist:
Spoiler Rapha Condor
1. A. Tennant
2. D. Appleby
3. A. Dowsett
4. T. Grmay
5. P. Kennaugh
6. Y. Reguigui
7. W. Sulzberger
Trilux
11. M. Kessler
12. H. Duyn
13. M. Eichler
14. T. Fothen
15. A. Saramotins
16. G. Smukulis
17. R. Zepunkte
Tinkoff
21. S. Kolesnikov
22. P. Brutt
23. V. Efimkin
24. A. Khatuntsev
25. V. Kiryenka
26. A. Markov
27. A. Ovechkin
UniCredit
31. W. Bonnet
32. L. Bernucci
33. M. Brändle
34. A. Signego
35. T. Valjavec
36. B. Van Poppel
37. B. Vandborg
Pokerstars
41. S. Clement
42. J. Degenkolb
43. A. Geslin
44. M. Guillén
45. M. Maaskant
46. H. Raabe
47. J. Van Goolen
Cal Giant
51. K. Koren
52. S. Cozza
53. B. Jacques-Maynes
54. B. King
55. L. Pasamontes
56. K. Reijnen
57. B. Sinner
Cyclevox
61. I. Konovalovas
62. C. Beyer
63. T. Lowe
64. R. Mandri
65. C. McConvey
66. C. Opie
67. S. Richardson
Rothaus
71. B. Hermans
72. J. Ariesen
73. C. Cucinotta
74. A. Gajek
75. A. Krieger
76. M. Landa
77. M. Velits
Red Bull
81. D. Impey
82. J. Cooper
83. S. Gerrans
84. A. Hansen
85. K. Kirchen
86. C. Sutton
87. G. Tzortzakis
Oz
91. W. Ford
92. J. Bobridge
93. B. Cooke
94. S. Lewis
95. M. Matthews
96. G. O'Shea
97. M. Renshaw
Meiji
101. Y. Arashiro
102. F. Beppu
103. Y. Doi
104. HT. Kwok
105. M. Lloyd
106. S. Park
107. C. Shikai
Hollister
111. A. Davis
112. R. Caminiti
113. D. MartÃnez
114. J. Mercado
115. J. Pantano Gómez
116. P. Pereyra
117. R. Sambris
Vespa
121. R. Traficante
122. M. Bono
123. O. Gatto
124. M. Gavazzi
125. M. Kwiatkowski
126. A. Petrie-Armstrong
127. I. Speirs
Ferrari
131. C. Salerno
132. S. Agostini
133. E. Battaglin
134. C. D'Amore
135. M. Marcato
136. D. Pietropolli
137. E. Rizza
Export
141. C. Evans
142. N. Gauer
143. D. Kairelis
144. M. Karagobek
145. I. Seledkov
146. C. Van Ooijen
147. T. Ziegler
Focus
151. B. Feillu
152. J. Adams
153. M. Andersen
154. D. Beatse
155. T. Meyer
156. A. Nechita
157. C. Pineau
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| Pellizotti2 |
Posted on 23-09-2012 13:45
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World Champion
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Didn't even know that I had a team participating here!
Well, well. Several new chances for D'Amore to be useless.
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| Levi4life |
Posted on 23-09-2012 20:49
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4882
Joined: 16-03-2007
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If koren can deliver anything here I will be pleased. My team has set the bar about where it should have been all season in these past few races. Keeping a top 5 is a must, and this is our last race of the season
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 04:57
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 23-09-2012 20:59
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World Champion
Posts: 12986
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Brought one of my best teams here. I have a guy for a decent GC place, and a load of sprinters to hopefully pull out a good result.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 23-09-2012 21:02
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11819
Joined: 19-07-2010
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Most important late-season race for Oz, so it's time for Baden Cooke's first win.. and maybe Bobridge can do some good things in the timetrial and hit the Top5 for our first achieved season-goal  (well, one can always dream!)
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| Smowz |
Posted on 23-09-2012 21:04
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Team Leader
Posts: 6479
Joined: 09-04-2009
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Impey has had an eventful season and I am hopeful he can sign off on a high.
Gerrans could do some damage on the hilly stage if he can mark Kessler.
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| felix_29 |
Posted on 23-09-2012 21:05
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Posts: 3054
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I hope that breakaways won´t screw up the results (unless i get a GC podium because of that  ) and that Kessler drops the better TT riders in stage three. If he wants to stay in my team, he should better win here...
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| roturn |
Posted on 23-09-2012 21:46
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Should have brought Boom here I think.
Now looking forward how Hermans can perform here and maybe even more forward if Velits can survive the hill to get a good overall with the TT. |
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| roturn |
Posted on 26-09-2012 13:30
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I knew that Cucinotta was the better sprinter than Vantomme. Shame. Should have gone for him the whole season. 
Good stage for me. 4th is pretty well and also Hermans within the first group. |
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| beagle |
Posted on 26-09-2012 13:49
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Posts: 4200
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really poor performance of my team, I hope for massive improving in upcoming stages
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| Pellizotti2 |
Posted on 26-09-2012 13:50
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World Champion
Posts: 10121
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Crap. Can't say that I expected much, but it's still annoying that Salerno lost unnecessary time. 
I'm not even surprised that my two "sprinters" were nowhere.
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| ltt |
Posted on 26-09-2012 14:37
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Posts: 388
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Well I'm definitely not going to win the Team standings but Davis winning is a good start
Need him to rack up the wins and time bonuses to get a decent position on GC though. |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 26-09-2012 15:25
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11819
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Well, this IS something.. nice 3rd for Cooke, especially as one didn't see that coming It's also good to see Bobridge not being "splitted".
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| felix_29 |
Posted on 26-09-2012 16:57
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Classics Specialist
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No breakaway and Kessler didn´t loose time. Can´t wait for the "interesting" stages.
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| fenian_1234 |
Posted on 26-09-2012 17:01
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Posts: 4790
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Nice report to read. Good to see Vespa active.
I'm hoping this race goes to a winner in a break - Petrie-Armstrong I hope. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 26-09-2012 18:21
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Team Manager
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I suppose the positive of Kennaugh is that Tennant made the split. How he failed to win though...
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| Pellizotti2 |
Posted on 27-09-2012 06:19
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World Champion
Posts: 10121
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Rizza won a sprint?! That's friggin' impossible! 
A shame that it wasn't for the victory. The bonus seconds very useful anyway.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 27-09-2012 06:55
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World Champion
Posts: 12986
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Hopefully we can start/keep beating Oz, thats my goal for the rest of the season...
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| Smowz |
Posted on 27-09-2012 07:48
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Team Leader
Posts: 6479
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Not really a good start to the race, but that said stage 3 is the most important stage for us to try and animate. The plan is to protect Impey I hope, if we can keep it together then just maybe we can move into a good GC position.
Impey just needs two decent sprints, though the sprint competition is quite tough.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 27-09-2012 07:50
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11819
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valverde321 wrote:
Hopefully we can start/keep beating Oz, thats my goal for the rest of the season...
You won't believe me, that's it's the same for me the other way round
A shame, the break made it, Cooke looks in shape and this stage was flat enough.. still, he's doing well.
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