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MB's Statistical Analysis
mb2612
Top  #1 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 18:09
Hi

So I figured would look at last years results, and see what they would tell us about. I came up with some interesting statistics.

As such I figure I should share them with you. The numbers should all be right, although the analysis is potentially useless, as I haven't been the best manager.

If you have any ideas on stuff you want too see in the future, comment and I'll look into it and see what I can pull from the numbers.

On with the stats
i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png

Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated
 
SotD
Top  #2 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 18:11
Can you tell me if riders are likely to score the same amount in the new PCM version than the one we used so far? Wink
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SportingNonsense
Top  #3 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 18:13
SotD wrote:
Can you tell me if riders are likely to score the same amount in the new PCM version than the one we used so far? Wink


If anyone has done any PCM10 analysis, good for them, but Id prefer they kept that to themselves - I like the idea of going in to the rider race selections where the majority of managers arent entirely sure how PCM10 will work out (me included!).

I think this is more based on the 2011 season, and if so, I look forward to it!
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ember
Top  #4 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 18:15
Nice initiative mb2612, I'm looking forward to some enjoyable numbers/reading Smile
Edited by ember on 13-06-2011 18:16
 
mb2612
Top  #5 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 18:16
Yeah, this is more based on past results than the change in version, also, as there is a decent chance we will use pcm11 the analysis may well be useless.
i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png

Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated
 
Rin
Top  #6 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 18:34
I would be interested in general in sprints as I have Ciolek and he underperformed.. Maybe a new PCM will fit him more (or my team is just bad as Pokerstars showed last season) so how often a sprinter won who had a leadout, who won without a leadout train but picking a wheel etc.
i1215.photobucket.com/albums/cc512/ANFreeman/Jersey%20Sprites/bianchi.pngTeam Bianchi - 2012 Man-Game ProContinental Tour Championsi1215.photobucket.com/albums/cc512/ANFreeman/Jersey%20Sprites/bianchi.png
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mb2612
Top  #7 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 18:54
Ok, so first up I decided to look at the build of a successful CT team, how many leaders you want, whether you should go for one big star or several little ones, etc.

First up, lets look at the table with each teams best rider removed:
1Team IKEA - Bianchi49603649
2Wiggle - San Pellegrino46853630
3100% Me39633296
6Milka36442897
4Pendleton's Twicer37212824
8Petronas - Olympus33322805
13Bimbo Nutella31952657
9UBS - Annie Chun's33262630
5Bacardi - Colt36452628
11Team Pokerstars.com32382587
7Santander33622540
14Tinkoff Credit Systems - Rosneft30862511
12Sport Lisboa e Benfica32032465
10Team LEGO32702436
15Red Bull28732210
16Mercedes-Benz26452097
17Quiksilver-Kraft23391889
19Vespa-Caffrey's22351682
18Team Telenor-SAS22831673
22EL AL - IDF20691556
25Intesa16421461
21Cillit Bang - IT-Factory powered by the Moon X21971419
20Pirelli - Internazionale22261395
24UniCredit17681258
23YouTube - Twitter20511153
27Bbox Bouygoues Telecom12931060
26Yamaha - Greenpeace1341978
28Team Falcon-Husqvarna1287966
29HighRoad-TomTom1072753


As you can see, the top 3 remain the same, Milka rise to 4th, while Bimbo's rise shows that the lack of a strong leader really cost them last season.

Final PlacingTeam NameTotal PointsPoints without best riderPoints without top 2 riders
3100% Me396332962738
2Wiggle - San Pellegrino468536302695
1Team IKEA - Bianchi496036492519
8Petronas - Olympus333228052295
11Team Pokerstars.com323825872219
6Milka364428972196
13Bimbo Nutella319526572170
4Pendleton's Twicer372128242114
9UBS - Annie Chun's332626302003
14Tinkoff Credit Systems - Rosneft308625111997
12Sport Lisboa e Benfica320324651877
10Team LEGO327024361857
7Santander336225401753
15Red Bull287322101725
5Bacardi - Colt364526281723
16Mercedes-Benz264520971685
17Quiksilver-Kraft233918891536
22EL AL - IDF206915561283
25Intesa164214611281
18Team Telenor-SAS228316731271
19Vespa-Caffrey's223516821261
24UniCredit176812581045
20Pirelli - Internazionale222613951033
21Cillit Bang - IT-Factory powered by the Moon X21971419893
27Bbox Bouygoues Telecom12931060850
23YouTube - Twitter20511153822
28Team Falcon-Husqvarna1287966774
26Yamaha - Greenpeace1341978665
29HighRoad-TomTom1072753482


Without the best two riders 100% Me takes over as leader, although the top 3 are still comfortably ahead, they were clearly the best teams last year.
Petronas and Pokerstars also clearly have massive strength in depth, while Bacardi fall to 15th, they were very reliant on Kirchen and Ricco.

I won't go through all the riders, but here is the full table for up too five riders missing:
Final PlacingTeam NameTotal PointsPoints without best riderPoints without top 2 ridersPoints without top 3Points without top 4Points without top 5
1Team IKEA - Bianchi49603649251919001349995
2Wiggle - San Pellegrino468536302695208115411176
3100% Me396332962738221917011383
4Pendleton's Twicer372128242114183315561291
5Bacardi - Colt3645262817231010772604
6Milka364428972196169413841113
7Santander3362254017531199895741
8Petronas - Olympus333228052295190715361209
9UBS - Annie Chun's33262630200314481064752
10Team LEGO32702436185714431059778
11Team Pokerstars.com323825872219190816331363
12Sport Lisboa e Benfica32032465187715401228990
13Bimbo Nutella319526572170177014491146
14Tinkoff Credit Systems - Rosneft30862511199715741232978
15Red Bull28732210172513381098940
16Mercedes-Benz26452097168512981021789
17Quiksilver-Kraft2339188915361210911662
18Team Telenor-SAS2283167312711028825660
19Vespa-Caffrey's223516821261999760569
20Pirelli - Internazionale222613951033763594442
21Cillit Bang - IT-Factory powered by the Moon X21971419893505368247
22EL AL - IDF2069155612831028823619
23YouTube - Twitter20511153822563370263
24UniCredit176812581045857674502
25Intesa1642146112811131999895
26Yamaha - Greenpeace1341978665536447377
27Bbox Bouygoues Telecom12931060850692538425
28Team Falcon-Husqvarna1287966774595437308
29HighRoad-TomTom1072753482309243183


Intresting to note that without the top 5 Pokerstar's were second, while Bacardi had fallen too twentieth. One feels that for next season one leader should get Pokerstars promoted, while if you are a new team then the Bacardi strategy of three leaders and not much else could be one to go for.


However looking at teams without leaders only tells us half the story, the leaders are more important that those supporting them, this table below shows the teams ordered by the points gained by their top 3, however it also shows points gained by other riders
Team Name3 best riders2 Best ridersBest Rider"nd Best Rider3rd best rider
Team IKEA - Bianchi3060244113111130619
Bacardi - Colt263519221017905713
Wiggle - San Pellegrino260419901055935614
Santander21631609822787554
Milka19501448747701502
Pendleton's Twicer18881607897710281
UBS - Annie Chun's18781323696627555
Team LEGO18271413834579414
100% Me17441225667558519
Cillit Bang - IT-Factory powered by the Moon X16921304778526388
Sport Lisboa e Benfica16631326738588337
Red Bull15351148663485387
Tinkoff Credit Systems - Rosneft15121089575514423
YouTube - Twitter14881229898331259
Pirelli - Internazionale14631193831362270
Petronas - Olympus14251037527510388
Bimbo Nutella14251025538487400
Mercedes-Benz1347960548412387
Team Pokerstars.com13301019651368311
Team Telenor-SAS12551012610402243
Vespa-Caffrey's1236974553421262
Quiksilver-Kraft1129803450353326
EL AL - IDF1041786513273255
UniCredit911723510213188
Yamaha - Greenpeace805676363313129
HighRoad-TomTom763590319271173
Team Falcon-Husqvarna692513321192179
Bbox Bouygoues Telecom601443233210158
Intesa511361181180150

As you can see these are the teams with leaders, Ikea again lead, while Bacardi and Santander show well. Cillit Bang impress in tenth, they are one team who really needed decent domestiques.

All of this said and done, it's not telling us what the most successful team would be. As such I will correlate between all the above stat and the overall points to see what bears most relevance.
PMCC
Points without best rider0.981648907
Points without top 2 riders0.931525701
Points without top 30.860740286
Points without top 40.805890416
Points without top 50.762251807
3 best riders0.898356678
2 Best riders0.874124026
Best Rider0.791529422
2nd Best Rider0.898376091
3rd best rider0.862764033

Where the higher correlation means they have more impact on the final result.

The interesting things to take out of this are:
a) The three best riders are more important than the rest of the team combined. This implies that if you can get 3 leaders then the rest don't really matter much

b) The 2nd best rider is more relevant to the teams overall position than the teams best rider. This is probably because a few teams go for the single leader strategy, which won't give you what you need to promote. Your second best rider really shows how you are doing though.

c) Most interestingly, I did these numbers for all the previous seasons (08-10) and the results were all the same, the change in points system made very little difference to how important the leaders were, with the second rider always the best indicator of overall position. I won't include the graphs for them because this post is long already, but if you want I can give them too you.

In conclusion. it's your second and third best rider who are most important in deciding how well you will do, so if you are a CT team you will need 3 leaders to do well.

Tomorrow I will do the same for the PT
i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png

Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated
 
Kami
Top  #8 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 19:11
Nice to read, and it really shows how Bacardi worked last season. Your conclusion is actually the same as Bacardi's season. Pfft
Edited by Kami on 13-06-2011 19:11
Manager of:
Bacardi Limited


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mb2612
Top  #9 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 19:28
Rin wrote:
I would be interested in general in sprints as I have Ciolek and he underperformed.. Maybe a new PCM will fit him more (or my team is just bad as Pokerstars showed last season) so how often a sprinter won who had a leadout, who won without a leadout train but picking a wheel etc.


Sure I'll look into sprint chains and how important they are.
i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png

Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated
 
rjc_43
Top  #10 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 19:44
The sprint chains aren't as important as having a good sprinter. And I don't mean a sprinter with just 80 sprint. I mean a sprinter with 75+ in other stats.
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Smowz
Top  #11 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 19:48
I think it is worth adding that the points the best riders score depends very much on race selection and indeed the level of competition.

Sprinters and punchaers were top class in the CTour last year, whereas stage racers, cobblers and time triallers were in short supply. Therefore relatively modest riders like Taaramae, Vanspreybrouk and Ignatiev were able to go amazingly well.

Now at least with punchaers you were gaurenteed a steady stream of good results.

Gilbert, Ricco, Ponzi, Efimkin all delivered for their teams, but then again those riders are good enough to win protour races. There is a fair amount of really high quality punchaers who largely missed out such as Pozzato and Ginanni.

Sprinters would invariably fluff their lines at least 2 out of 3 occasions. Ben Swift statistically is one of the best (behind Boonan and Bennati) sprinters in the Man Game, some of his performances were pitiful!

Finally, I'll introduce a paradox... I suppose I better make my second best rider my best rider then Smile
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Manager of i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys14/srb.pngSimply - Red Bull i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys14/srb.png
 
Roman
Top  #12 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 19:48
Interesting, really interesting reading, great work mb!

a) The three best riders are more important than the rest of the team combined. This implies that if you can get 3 leaders then the rest don't really matter much


That's exactly how my team worked. Efimkin, Hushovd, Casper. And then only random results from my team. Nice to have this confirmed now. Smile
Manager of Moser - Sygic
 
SportingNonsense
Top  #13 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 20:07
Conclusion: My team is awesome Pfft

Interesting to see how the depth of team plays out though - team depth is going to be very important in CT this year - theres going to be 175 race days per team rather than 150, and Im expecting this to reward teams with depth versus the teams with 1 or 2 standout riders.
farm8.staticflickr.com/7458/9357923136_f1e68270f3_n.jpg
 
mb2612
Top  #14 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 20:09
Smowz wrote:
I think it is worth adding that the points the best riders score depends very much on race selection and indeed the level of competition.

Sprinters and punchaers were top class in the CTour last year, whereas stage racers, cobblers and time triallers were in short supply. Therefore relatively modest riders like Taaramae, Vanspreybrouk and Ignatiev were able to go amazingly well.

Now at least with punchaers you were gaurenteed a steady stream of good results.

Gilbert, Ricco, Ponzi, Efimkin all delivered for their teams, but then again those riders are good enough to win protour races. There is a fair amount of really high quality punchaers who largely missed out such as Pozzato and Ginanni.

Sprinters would invariably fluff their lines at least 2 out of 3 occasions. Ben Swift statistically is one of the best (behind Boonan and Bennati) sprinters in the Man Game, some of his performances were pitiful!

Finally, I'll introduce a paradox... I suppose I better make my second best rider my best rider then Smile


I'm not sure that's true, about which riders are the best.

It's another thing I'm trying to look into, although this afternoon gave be the conclusion that you get more points if your cobbled stat is lower, so some work still needs to be done.
i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png

Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated
 
Heine
Top  #15 Print Post
Posted on 13-06-2011 21:05
Maybe interesting to take the same, but instead of useing the best scoring riders, use the best paid ones? Or something like that

I like this Grin Considered doing some statistics myself, but never got around to it.
 
SotD
Top  #16 Print Post
Posted on 14-06-2011 12:48
SportingNonsense wrote:
SotD wrote:
Can you tell me if riders are likely to score the same amount in the new PCM version than the one we used so far? Wink


If anyone has done any PCM10 analysis, good for them, but Id prefer they kept that to themselves - I like the idea of going in to the rider race selections where the majority of managers arent entirely sure how PCM10 will work out (me included!).

I think this is more based on the 2011 season, and if so, I look forward to it!


Hence the smiley Wink
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CrueTrue
Top  #17 Print Post
Posted on 14-06-2011 12:49
Besides - who says we're going to use PCM10? PCM11 is just as likely, I guess Wink
 
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SotD
Top  #18 Print Post
Posted on 14-06-2011 13:23
That will be pretty important as to how I'm going to chose in the Transferseason, so I surely hope it will be settled before we start.

EDIT:

And I hope we stick to whatever game we are using right now...
Edited by SotD on 14-06-2011 13:24
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mb2612
Top  #19 Print Post
Posted on 15-06-2011 00:17
So for the second time I'm writing a statistical analysis while drunk so I apologise for any typos and I promise I will try and do tomorrows look at sprinters sober.

Anyway here is the analysis of what makes a good Pro Tour Team in terms of leaders.

First lets see the teams sorted by their three leaders:

"+3"
Vesuvio-Accumalux5044
La Gazzetta dello Sport4825
Sony Ericsson4353
Wikipedia4135
Warner Brothers3988
Team B&O3472
Carmeuse Cyclisme3459
Pearl Adidas3425
Domina Vacanze3314
Philips - TDC3202
Jack Wolfskin3194
Festina - Corona3180
Lipton Ice Tea3136
Café de Colombia3003
Energie-Diesel2564
Auber 93 - Look2537
Team Nespresso2391
Team Starbucks-Radioshack2014
Lafarge1578


Vesuvio take the lead, while Warner Bros and Carmeuse clearly lacked strength in depth, at the other end of the table Festina and Auber did excelently in making sure every rider contributed.

Here is the table of teams subtracting their top few riders, sorted without the top 5.
-1-2-3-4-5
8Auber 93 - Look636453134393382733432888
3Pearl Adidas757663215089415132802807
4Festina - Corona716258784827398232602571
1Sony Ericsson807158844584371830982542
7Team B&O643047313285295826342317
2La Gazzetta dello Sport775353933983292824942180
17Energie-Diesel519739173138263323662158
9Jack Wolfskin615348643581295924982140
18Team Starbucks-Radioshack473140093293271723692034
16Team Nespresso540642943643301523911993
13Philips - TDC568343493334248121611913
11Lipton Ice Tea600842443544287222771913
15Café de Colombia542834152894242520521794
19Lafarge397033472831239220451760
5Vesuvio-Accumalux713151233443208718551653
14Carmeuse Cyclisme552340673050206418101592
10Domina Vacanze609748773750278318941564
12Warner Brothers596938182597198117631554
6Wikipedia663244783435249717021516


Auber and Pearl are the runaway leaders in having support riders, while interestingly the 5 bottom contains several teams who did well last year, clearly sacrificing quantity to keep their quality.

Finally lets look at the correlation between all these figures and the final points total

Points without best rider0.87813927
Points without top 2 riders0.723017952
Points without top 30.53403634
Points without top 40.472958812
Points without top 50.452283928
3 best riders0.795687819
2 Best riders0.764785395
Best Rider0.61720105
2nd Best Rider0.750866084
3rd best rider0.587706994


As you can see again the same things are true for PT teams as CT ones, the second best rider is still the best indicator of final position, and again the best three riders are much more important than the rest, a couple of differences though.

1) The correlation is much worse, this implies the teams are much closer, there is much less difference between a winning and loosing team here than in the continental tour.

2) After the first 2 riders are removed the correlation drops drastically, this shows how expensive leaders are, so if you have strong leaders you can't afford back up. Although leaders are still worth it.
i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PT/std_zpsb6c2f350.png

Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated
 
rjc_43
Top  #20 Print Post
Posted on 15-06-2011 16:21
I think you've ignored one of the most important factors of the Management Game.


The Manager.
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