The battle for promotion is always the key season long battle in the continental tour, and as ever, will be hotly contested. There are 4 promotion spots available, and based on previous seasons, while 1 or 2 teams will be expected to pull away, the battle for the final spots is always close - and this season ought to be no exception.
For the sake of convenience, Ive picked 6 teams to focus mostly on - teams who could be argued to be the favourites, but will keep on eye on the others - a surprise can never be ruled out. However, I wont be featuring 100% Me and for now at least, none of the new teams either.
But with teams using their overall race days, and the race days of their leaders, at different points, the overall picture will be hard to work out into the season ends in Japan.
Wiggle - San Pellegrino Current Ranking: 2nd
Points: 752
Race Days Used: 25
Points/Race Day: 30.08
On the face of it, Wiggle have made the best start. Ignatiev has won the Volta ao Algarve, and they are the highest placed of my main 6 contenders. That they have used 1/6th of their race days may be a worry, but the fact is that we have seen a couple of their weaker races. Of their 2 expected main points scorers, Ignatiev has only used 5 of his 34, Ponzi only 2 of his 50.
Team IKEA - Bianchi Current Ranking: 6th
Points: 509
Race Days Used: 20
Points/Race Day: 25.45
If their promotion hopes are to rest largely on Rein Taaramae, then San Luis shows a promising start. Of all the HC races, it was the one most likely to be the hardest for stage racers (Burgos and Portugal clashing, thus splitting the field, while Langkawi more suited to pure climbers), and yet he took a dominant win. Elsewhere there may be some cause for concern though. A stage and 6th overall may have been good Down Under for Flügel, but he took nothing from La Tropicale, and will need to improve his consistency.
Team LEGO Current Ranking: 15th
Points: 300
Race Days Used: 22
Points/Race Day: 13.64
Some reasons for concern in the season so far for Lego. Dmitri Claeys has made a lacklustre start, while Gerald Ciolek was not particularly convincing in the early sprints. Tachira could have been a great opportunity, but it was missed. Schwab did lose time in a crash, but the rest of the team failed to benefit from a weaker lineup. The pressure therefore will be increased on Maxime Monfort, who finished a strong 2nd in Bloemfontein, and is next in action at Tour Meditteraneen.
UBS - Annie Chun's Current Ranking: 8th
Points: 495
Race Days Used: 16
Points/Race Day: 30.94
Despite a slow start in Bloemfontein, Schumacher will be expected to score the most for the team - so it bodes well that others members of the team have been going strong in his place, for now. Roux, Richeze and Forster all won stages of La Tropicale, with Richeze taking 2 more in his home race San Luis - where Kohl also managed 4th overall. Evidence therefore suggests they have the depth to mount a strong promotion challenge.
Santander Current Ranking: 23rd
Points: 140
Race Days Used: 9
Points/Race Day: 15.56
Only 2 races in, so it could be early to judge, but there will be concerns amongst the Spanish team. David Abal ought to have done better than 6th in San Luis, while Ventoso missed out in Bloemfontein. C1 races may be more lucrative, but they will need to boost their HC showings as the season progresses - with hopes now that Cobo and Lopez Garcia can be strong points scoring assets.
Cillit Bang - IT-Factory powered by the Moon X Current Ranking: 10th
Points: 436
Race Days Used: 20
Points/Race Day: 21.8
Jonathan Bellis is currently sitting in 2nd in the continental standings. The problem with this? Well, he has already used 20 of his 46 race days. Hassen Ben Nasser has raced the same amount, but with only 51 pts, the gamble of racing him alongside Bellis may be coming at the cost of a promotion hope.
Others
Pendleton's Twicer Current Ranking: 7th
Points: 506
Race Days Used: 10
Points/Race Day: 50.6
Perhaps the most impressive start to the season, if maintained, could firmly establish them as a promotion prospect. Yes, fortune greatly favoured them in the Tour Down Under - therefore giving a slightly disproportionate view - but their fortune could easily continue. We've yet to even see their team leader Phillipe Gilbert.
Mercedes-Benz Current Ranking: 13th
Points: 328
Race Days Used: 9
Points/Race Day: 36.44
They took an early lead and have some good reasons to be optimistic. Pozzato is unlikely to be dropped much on the hills, and proved he has the sprint to capitalise, and while on the subject of sprints, Haedo appears to be returning to his 2009 form.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica Current Ranking: 1st
Points: 955
Race Days Used: 30
Points/Race Day: 31.83
They are our current leaders and do appear to be set for their best season yet. Florentino Marquez is challenging amongst the best in the mountains, with other climbers such as Colorado and Nazaret indicating the ability to score well when racing amongst weaker fields. Furthermore, Jurgen van den Broeck is already making good use of his all round capabilities - its just a question of whether he will be able to limit losses on the mountains, or just get in the way of the rest of the team.
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If the 9 teams highlighted, plus Vespa, Petronas, and current high flying new team Red Bull, continue to score at their currrent rate, then the final standings would be as follows:
1
Pendleton's Twicer
7590
2
Mercedes-Benz
5467
3
Sport Lisboa e Benfica
4775
4
UBS - Annie Chun's
4641
5
Wiggle - San Pellegrino
4512
6
Red Bull
3856
7
Team IKEA - Bianchi
3818
8
Cillit Bang - IT-Factory powered by the Moon X
3270
9
Petronas - Olympus
3010
10
Vespa-Caffrey's
2363
11
Santander
2333
12
Team LEGO
2045
Of course if those were the tallys, then some other teams would undoubtedly place ahead of those 12, and the idea that the current scoring rates would continue for the season is flawed - but still it makes for interesting viewing.
Prior to the start of the season, my 4 promotion tips would have been Wiggle, IKEA, UBS and Cillit Bang. 8 races in, and while sticking with the first 3, I have my doubts about Cillit Bang, and would replace them with Lego. Yes, a slow start but Claeys is likely to have some success, Monfort was strong in Bloemfontein and Gil is yet to race. The likes of Pendletons and Mercedes do have the potential to maintain their starting pace, but it wont be easy, while Santander need improvement, as do Vespa - Steegmans no doubt dissapointed in his debut, with Ginanni still to come.
I don't know about the points, but I completely agree with the (normal) promotion spots, but with the order of Ikea, Wiggle, and then UBS. I think Taaramae is just too unbeatable this year.
Taaramae is just one, with limited race days. Ok, there's also Alarcon, Flugel and Vanspeybrouck, but I still think that Wiggle will win CT. Ignatiev is even more unbeatable than Taaramae and there are great puncheurs in that team. Being this CT, where it's possible to choose races, I think Rjc is in every single damn hilly classic - two race days and many points to offer. That's Wiggle's advantage, lots of depth in team's main area. IKEA has an all-round squad, G_Larsson chose different types of races, but IKEA isn't dominant in any terrain apart from stage races, where Alarcon is also very important.
Good point, but I still think Ikea can take it. That said, Ikea does have more risk in its schedule, and if we were posting odds I'd give Wiggle the lowest to promote. I'd also give them the lowest odds to have their manager banned because of a rant caused by the team missing promotion
Nice report SN. Its all a bit up in the air at the moment!
San Luis suited Taaramae from the point that he could bring all his skills to bear, that is Mountains, TT, Hills and Stamina. That said he had a fantastic race that stes IKEA up well for the rest of the season.
Its a similar story for Ignatiev, the TT was long enough for him to obliterate the field. He will want to avoid losing time on hilly stages again but those stages don't always seem to go to as expected.
Interesting that 100% Me are not placed in the top 10 I sense a little modesty (I am guilty of that too).
Based on early season results I would say the following look like promotion material:
Pendletons, UBS, Sport Lisboa, Wiggle and an outside chance Mercedes.
Vespa and Santander its too early too tell.
Cillit Bang and LEGO have not had the start they need.
Well, i'm very happy with the 50 points per raceday and if i do get that 7th then I will be over the moon. I love all these new things like the predictions. they make the game even better
I expect a few points comeing up at Tour Med, but nothing like what we got in the first 3 races. I'm not really expecting big things from MB until Tour of Turkey, so really anything from here till Pozzato starts racing again is a good result.
I think I'd more likely be banned for flooding the forum with tears if I don't promote. But saying that, Auber almost look likely to stay up after the massive early Qatar haul.
Smowz wrote:
Interesting that 100% Me are not placed in the top 10 I sense a little modesty (I am guilty of that too).
To be honest, I wouldnt know where to start in terms of trying to predict on 100% Me. But whether they are a Top 10 prospect or not, they have 0 chance of promoting, so theres no point featuring them in a promotion-themed topic.
My thoughts on Vespa were that the two races we started so far this year were an absolute wash-out, so I'm a little surprised that the team would be on course for 10th. Then again - I expect the team to finish in the Top 10 at least of just about every race entered so am far too demanding of the team.
Wiggle are looking good - but Pendleton's have had a fantastic start, especially since Gilbert has yet to get on his bike.
I sense a little modesty (I am guilty of that too).
