So, now for the Pro tour part of my predictions, this month we have 3 simultaneous stage races before the first monument of the season with Milan San Remo.
Our three stage races all have a slightly different national flavour, and as such give us an early indication of who to expect to do well in the respective grand tours.
First up is Tirreno-Adriatico where the lack of any mountain stage in this years race means that strong time trialists will probably dominate the top ten, as long as they can avoid loosing time on the hilly stages.
So who is here and what can we expect?
Sprinters
Well Bos is here, although he won't be able to do anything as there are hills on every stage.
Bennati leads the sprinting field, and he will be tough to beat, although his lack of form in Qatar will give his rival hope. Corioni, Lavoine and Grillo lead the chasing pack, although without much in terms of a lead out they will have to work on their positioning.
One team who won't struggle for lead outs is Carmeuse Cyclisme, along with Bos they have Caethoven and Clerc and will expect to have someone challenging for victory on all 4 flat stages.
Hilly Riders
Trofimov, Hagen and Sánchez Gonzalez lead the way here, although expect Ulissi and Sanchez Gil to also be up there in the finale.
Time trialists
Zabriske, Rogers and Phinney are here, and all will be looking for victory on this stage, and allthough it is classified as hilly, I really can't see anyone other than Zabriske winning this one.
Wild Card
A strong team from Wiggle Ponzi will be here for the hills, while Ignatiev will be testing the water to see if, next year, he will be able to compete for GC's in the pro tour as well.
Overall
It really depends on Wikipedia, should Phinney be the leader then he is favourite for the overall, however should Zabriskie be given the honour then the hilly stages could be very interesting.
After them, and apart from the names already mentioned Kashechkin and Nibali have a good time trial and should be able to hold their own on the hilly stage, it's all set up for an exciting stage.
Next up? Paris-Nice. This year the race to the sun is short on time trials but with a very nice mix of road stages expect to see a battle that twist and turns like a twisty-turny thing.
Sprinters
Van Stayen, Meyer and Haussler are strongest here, although as Meyer and Haussler have Bazajev and Drujon respectively they should be favourites for the 2 flat stages.
Time trialists
Only a short prolouge here, and hence only top quality 2 specialists here, Ford and Coppel, although GC riders Gesink and Pluchkin will push them all the way
Hills
With four vital hilly stages it's a little surprising that there is a weak line up of hilly riders here with Schleck, Gesink, Van Garderen, Sinkewitz and Rodriguez Oliver the cream of the crop.
Mountains
Always the most decisive part of a race this years mountain top finish will likely be conquered by Sella, although Henao Montoya will be up there, preparing to test out his climbing in the Pro Tour for the first time, while Pluchkin continues to improve.
Wild Card
Pellizotti leads the way here and he may well challenge for a top ten, although Youtube-twitter really only have the one card to play
Overall
I think the the Overall will be between Schleck, Pluchkin and Gesink, whether Schleck and Gesink will be able to take enough time in the hills to win this is up for debate, however I think he will just about do it. After that the results get more murky, Sella will definately be somewhere close, as will Popovych and Brajkovic. Rodriguez Oliver Sinkewitz and Caruso will probably trail in behind.
Next up we are in Spain for the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya. Like Paris-Nice we have a prologue, a couple of hilly stages, and a mountaintop finish.
TTists
First up the time trial, and it's a three horse race between Cornu, Keizer and Fiedler, although I expect Cornu to take victory. One dark horse could be Plaza, who may use home ground advantage to good effect.
Hills
Here Valverde and Bakelants are strongest, although we can expect challenges, if there are any, from Pozzovivo and Mehr-Wenige
Mountains
After winning last year Uran is again favourite to take victory, although the field is strong here, with 9 riders over 80 mountain, of them I am going to pick Valverde Pozzovivo and Arroyo as most likely to challenge Uran
Sprints
Lo Cicero and Avelino are probably the fastest riders here, howvever with the hills inherent in racing in Spain expect to see Bewley and Castañeda leading the field here.
Wild Card
After ignoring the Spanish CT team (not bitter at all ) Redbull have sent a decent team to this race, although they will struggle to make an impact in this race beyond the breakaways.
Overall
This Valverde's to lose and as this is a prediction I won't rock the boat by suggesting anyone else, Uran will run him close, but after that 3rd will be a way back.
Finally we move on to the classic you have all been waiting for Milan-San Remo
The Wild Cards
Ginanni and Ponzi will be leaders of their respective teams in the hills for Milan San Remo, while Rowe and Steegmans lead their sprinting line ups, again I feel they will struggle to keep up, although won't get a strong result, although Ponzi strong sprint could be very useful.
Predictions
As for what to expect, who knows, although my prediction is a bunch sprint where most of the sprinters are out of position, based on what normally happens when I play single player.
How to pick the favourites?
No idea but I am going to add the hilly stat to the sprint stat and see what that gives us.
155-Hagen and Bennati
153-Bakelants
152-Ulissi and Ponzi
151-Vastaranta and Van Stayen
150-Bewley and Van Garderen
148-Sonnery, Haussler, Freire, Steegmans, Caruso and Granjel Cabrera
Below that we have Punchuers: Spilak, Sánchez Gonzalez, Rodriguez Oliver, Ginanni and Schleck
This list gives a nice estimate of who wins if we have the aforementioned chaotic sprint. However we could easily have a rider get away, the peleton sit up and a proper sprint for 2nd.
Also the teams compositions are interesting, after last year where the hilly riders buried themselves for sprinters who had run out of steam.
Vesuvio has gone for a breakaway, with Schleck leading a team with no sprinters to speak of. Gazzetta has gone the other way, with lots of minor hilly riders to chase down a break but none who could threaten Bennati's leadership.
As such here are my predictions:
1. Hagen
2. Bakelants
3. Schleck
4. Van Garderen
5. Bennati
6. Van Stayen
7. Bewley
8. Haussler
9. Vastaranta
10. Steegmans
Again any feedback/suggestions would be much appreciated, I hope you enjoyed reading this.
Edited by mb2612 on 11-05-2010 18:48
[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
Well, I wont complain with a Schleck Paris-Nice repeat, and Uran 2nd in Catalunya.
Im surprised that Zabriskie and Phinney are in the same race, theyd score better seperately I would think, but it helps provide an opportunity in Catalunya for Kittel and Ford. Kittel particularly, with a little luck, can ensure it is not simply a 3 horse race in the prologue, as suggested.
I'm gonna comment on the races one by one, for my own sake
Paris-Nice. You name Samuel Sánchez to be 4th. I believe that could potentially happen, but Ulissi 10th? I doubt it. I don't think two riders from my team will be up that high, and I think Lavoine got a decent lead-out from Michael Vingerling and Ulissi
rjc_43 wrote:
I hope Sinkewitz proves you wrong and gets a top 10 in Paris Nice, as it's one of my goals.
I had done nearly the whole thing when I noticed I had copied Vesuvio's file over incorrectly (SN sorted his one by race days ) and Sinkewitz was the person I kicked off the top ten to make room for Schleck, so he should be close to the top ten.
Also, as I have yet to see how any predictions of mine actually turn out. I wouldn't get to worried if I put you lower than you think.
[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
Damn the Paris-Nice is tough this year. Glad I didn't put Contador inhere, only to become 5th or so...
I hope Blaise Sonnery can do something given that he is the best french sprinter here and has a decent leadout by Bileka. I have 3 frenchies, so hopefully some stage succes from Bernaudeau or Mourey if Sonnery isn't strong enough.
Milano - San Remo is among the most unpredictable races in the calender, but I have established my most potent team for a race of it's liking, so I really hope for a top 5 atleast here:
I would be very surprised if he doesn't go within top 15, even if it turns out to be a sprint. Simply because of his great stat aspect and the fact that he will definately be in the front after the hill.
Seeing that a victory in Catalunya is unreachable with Valverde and Úran present, and so my 1st goal of the season will be missed, a top5 both in Spain and Italy would be really pleasant.
Any other result will be considered as a bonus. Yet bonuses are awesome so I'll probably be expectinng them as well
btw very nice preview mb. It's really interesting for guys like me who don't really bother to scout the field for every race. Congrats and thanks
After a bad start in Qatar I'm expecting some quality results in Catalunya, Milano - Sanremo and especially Paris - Nice, where I have both Gesink and Van Stayen.
Also it will be interesting to see what Posthuma can do in Tirreno and hopefully the sixth stage won't be too hard for him.
) Redbull have sent a decent team to this race, although they will struggle to make an impact in this race beyond the breakaways.
) and Sinkewitz was the person I kicked off the top ten to make room for Schleck, so he should be close to the top ten.
