Yes, I'm aware of the fact that I said that the time trial would be the decider - but the thing is that, after the time trial, there's plenty of good riders capable of winning this race - with Kessler and Vandenbroeck, both 18 seconds after Hoste, being the biggest favourites. They will both fancy their chances on this hilly stage.
It took a while for the peloton to decide on which riders to let go. Eventually, a large group of 11 got away: Cioni, Cleaver, Wallays, Creed, Thuax, Terpstra, Cioban, Van Mingeroet, Locatelli, Fleeman and Echarri. With about 100 km to go, they had a gap of 8 minutes to the peloton.
In the peloton, NVidia proved that they believe that Hoste has what it takes to keep the jersey by upping the pace. Meanwhile, other riders had other plans. Shpilevski, Tonti and Diggle attacked and were later followed by Bosisio, Muravjev and Munoz Giraldo. Diggle couldn't keep up while the others seemed to manage to collaborate. At this point, with 60 km to go, the front group has reached the first hill of the day, which is actually Mur de Huy, with a gap of c. 4 minutes to the peloton.
More importantly, there was a mountain sprint at the top of Mur de Huy, bringing in 16 points. And as this is the first mountain sprint of the race, Terpstra, who won the sprint, takes the virtual mountain jersey.
Behind him, no major events happened during the climb. Tonti had to let go of the four breakaway riders behind the main break and was eventually caught by the peloton.
So, the situation with 40 km to go: An almost intact peloton chasing - 1 minute to the four-man-group and 3 minutes to the 11-man-group. There are still two hills to go.
After a great chase by Molteni, the four riders were caught shortly before the 2nd last hill, leaving 11 riders in front. Terpstra once again attacked for mountain points and got them. The attacks continued after the sprint, though. Scheirlinckx (1'02 after), Hermans (34 after), Ratti, Leukemans, Wegmann, Quinziato, Kessler, Vandenbroeck, Kessler, Gardeyn all attacked, but the first attack was (partly) unsuccesful.
Instead, Hoste wanted to set everything straight and attacked!
Both Kessler and Wegmann had a small advantage, though. from the previous attack - and they attacked again. They joined and 'left' the riders from the early breakaway while Hoste had to give up on his attack and return to the peloton. At the foot of the last hill - 10 km to go - the two riders in front had a gap of 47 seconds.
As expected, a rain of attacks happened on the last hill. Led by Van Garderen, Vandenbroeck, Hermans and a struggling Meersman - followed by Scheirlinckx, the Vespa duo Bettini and Quinziato - but no Hoste. He wasted his energy earlier.
The outcome of the climb: Vandenbroeck, Hermans and Van Garderen managed to catch Kessler and Wegmann - and every surprisingly, a super-attack from Paolini, who was followed by Zirbel, Bagdonas, Meersman ... and Hoste (!) - increased the number of riders in the front group.
Shortly after, the sprint started: It's Vandenbroeck in front of Kessler and Van Garderen. In the other train, Hermans is leading out for Paolini, Zirbel and Bagdonas. Hoste is last in the group.
With 1 km to go, Paolini has taken over. Hermans is desperately trying to hang on while it's still Vandenbroeck leading out in the other sprint train. Hoste also seems tired, but he knows that if he can hang on, he's very likely to win this tour.
It's a victory for Paolini! Hermans did manage to come closer, but it wasn't enough.
