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TOTC 3: Pre Race Discussion Thread
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 22:14
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| Shonak |
Posted on 02-12-2013 22:27
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But it's not about the 20/21st person in the list, it's about the guys in the middle, let's say 7-13. That's 6 people of 20 participants at the core of things, but you can extend it to 8, 10 or even 12. They are always at a disadvantage, in every draft. It's not fair to them to always make comprises while the Top 3/Bottom 3 can each say in 4 of the 8 drafts: Hey, I take that one, and that one, and that one, and one of them belongs to me.
Yes, the riders are not overpowered, and it can be that even the 15th gets his first rider. The one he would choose if he was Number One.
I understand the draft system and I think it works the best for this kind of game and I appreciate the strategy that one has to decide upon picking his riders, however there's room to optimize. In reality it's pretty simple. The table above shows the principle system and each time the ranking in the group itself can change additionaly. An Example: This means that the original 5th listed person in Group 2 for example can get their favourited rider in Pot 5 without any worries and the 4th listed can try for two of his favourited listed riders and the third, well he will in this instant get both times one of the 3 preferred riders, when Group 2 is atop. Geez, that makes it sound way more complicated, but you get the idea? The principle of choosing riders would stay the same throughout the draft, but it's just more equal towards everybody.
Edited by Shonak on 02-12-2013 22:32
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 02-12-2013 23:06
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Done some maths, even got out Excel and a Calculator for this (although the Calculator wasn't really needed)
So we've got 4 Groups of 5 People. For the purpose of explanation Group 1 is G1 etc. and Person 1 in Group 1 is 1A, Person 1 in Group 2 is 2A etc. Rounds are shortened to R#
R1 goes G1 G2 G3 G4. In more detail it goes 1A 1B 1C 1D 1E 2A 2B 2C 2D 2E 3A 3B 3C 3D 3E 4A 4B 4C 4D 4E.
R2 = 4A 4B 4C 4D 4E 3A 3B 3C 3D 3E 2A 2B 2C 2D 2E 1A 1B 1C 1D 1E
R3 = 3A 3B 3C 3D 3E 4A 4B 4C 4D 4E 1A1 1B 1C 1D 1E 2A 1B 1C 1D 1E
R4 = 2A 2B 2C 2D 2E 1A 1B 1C 1D 1E 4A 4B 4C 4D 4E 3A 3B 3C 3D 3E
R5-8 is just in reverse so no need to detail it.
So i picked out 4 People at random, 1A 2C 3E 4B, to do the more specific math.
1A = 68
2C = 86
3E = 100
4B = 76
Clearly visible i think. The middle men, 2C and 3E are the two highest values, whilst the outer men, 1A and 4B are the lowest values. In this system the middle men have lost out compared to the outer men. In addition each person has a unique value creating imbalance between everyone involved in the system. There are clearly defined winners and losers. This is partly due the Group ordering, which is not a true serpentine
I havn't done the maths on the opposite people, 4A 3C 2E 1B, but i know the values will not be equal and that the middle men will be worse off.
Also i did this without including Group specific serpentining. I can do that if you like but i reckon that there will still be unequal totals floating around, although i can't know until i do the math. What i can say is that including this extra level of serpentine is going to be excessive when compared to a basic 1-21 serpentine we are currently using.
If the in-Group serpentine is included, and it leads to all equal values for each person, then yes the system works as fairly as a standard serpentine. And yes it would give more people chance of "1st pick". Except it isn't "1st pick" anymore, it's "21st" then "41st" and so on. Of course with set Pots for each round it is still 1st pick because that resets because of a totally new set of riders.
Basically the system can work (i would need to do the in-group serpentine numbers to know for certain) as long as there are no more than 20 people and 8 rounds and a totally new set of riders each round. Very specific set up which offers very slight mental benefits to a couple more people, but does not change anything overall
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| Shonak |
Posted on 03-12-2013 00:35
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Thanks for the effort and explanation, ManxMissile. You certainly know your math.  I do wonder though what you have taken into the calcutation excatly? Only the draft order as a serpentine system, or also the 3 choices each one has, what value is applied to them?
The way I see it the guys 2C and 3E lose out because there has been no group specific serpenting. 1A and 4B have therefor of course lower values, because without group specific serpenting A and B will always come ahead of C and E, thus they get higher values in comparions each time. I imagine with group serpenting applied, there will still be some unequality left but I suppose we can (wrongly?) just account the factor of randomness to it. Of course "complete" serpenting won't cause perfect equality, since Pot 1 will always belong first to the guys in Group 1 but The Rider has already shown that he has balanced 9 Pots quite nicely, where in Pot 2 potential leaders are to be found & picked, and so on. It'd be interesting to know how the current serpenting holds up against the "complete" serpenting system in terms of equality but you don't have to calcucate it such for me - only if you want to^^
I am not saying that the system I recommend is 100% equal, after all what is in this life? But it would be more equal towards everybody I think.
Be it as it may: The bit of additional effort may not hold up to its mathematical gain, however on a sociological level it is an improval in my eyes. After all, the original claim still stands: In the current serpentine system Top 3 & Bottom 3 can pick their 3 preferred riders without "fear of losing out" in 4 out of 8 drafts, while the guys in the middle - let's say 9, 10 & 11 - will always have to take in sacrifices in their choice of 3 riders. At least with a Group serpenting system combined with an individual serpenting within in the groups, each person will have at least once the 100% chance of getting one of their 3 preferred riders out of their pot.
Well, anyway, TOTC3 is about to start and I look massively forward to it. I suppose we will have enough time to discuss details when TOTC4 kicks off.
Edited by Shonak on 03-12-2013 00:40
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| The Hobbit |
Posted on 03-12-2013 07:05
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Hmm, we'll, all I have to say is:
NOBODY CARES, well obviously you do, but other than that...
It's only a game guys, don't worry about it, to be fair I don't like either system. There is NO way to do it so everyone will be happy, just enjoy it while you can, the more we moan the later it will be. |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-12-2013 07:51
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Hope to get my draft in later today!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 03-12-2013 12:08
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The Hobbit wrote:
Hmm, we'll, all I have to say is:
NOBODY CARES, well obviously you do, but other than that...
It's only a game guys, don't worry about it, to be fair I don't like either system. There is NO way to do it so everyone will be happy, just enjoy it while you can, the more we moan the later it will be.
I don't moan, I simply discuss the existing serpenting system as it is. Isn't that what discussion boards are for - to discuss things? Plus, it doesn't hold up TOTC3 since the system for this edition will not change. 
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-12-2013 12:28
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Actually, I still have a question. Will the nationality bonus be Italian for the entire race or will the different stages each have their own nationality bonus?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| The Rider |
Posted on 03-12-2013 12:49
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Ollfardh wrote:
Actually, I still have a question. Will the nationality bonus be Italian for the entire race or will the different stages each have their own nationality bonus?
Hope this helps. I looked to the way GT's were already implemented into the database. In the STAGE field where each individual stage is managed, for the Denmark stages which were in the 2012 Giro the country field still said Italy rather than Denmark. I have copied this format.
So I believe the game will believe all the stages are in Italy, but not 100% sure by any means. 
I've put all of the jerseys into the game so I am now waiting for less than 10 different people's draft lists to come in. *** in POST 2 next to your jersey means you have successfully sent me your choices.
Edited by The Rider on 03-12-2013 12:51
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-12-2013 13:58
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That's mine done! When is the deadline and when can we expect the draft?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| The Rider |
Posted on 03-12-2013 14:27
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Ollfardh wrote:
That's mine done! When is the deadline and when can we expect the draft?
It was likely take place tomorrow evening at around 6-7 GMT. Of course only if the remaining guys have sent in their lists (See Post 2). I have messaged the remaining guys and I will set a deadline tomorrow morning if necessary. |
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 03-12-2013 14:49
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Sent them in as well now
Damn, I'd never expect that I could be so happy with having first pick in Round 9.
And that has a reason, you'll find out soon(easy to guess, but whatever  )
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
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| The Rider |
Posted on 03-12-2013 19:22
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Jesleyh wrote:
Sent them in as well now
Damn, I'd never expect that I could be so happy with having first pick in Round 9.
And that has a reason, you'll find out soon(easy to guess, but whatever )
I hope soon. Only about 7 draft lists are needed now. If they are not in soon we might have to get some bounty hunters to track 'em down. |
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 03-12-2013 19:50
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Well, you'll find out in Stage 1 to be exact
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
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| The Hobbit |
Posted on 03-12-2013 20:30
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Shonak wrote:
The Hobbit wrote:
Hmm, we'll, all I have to say is:
NOBODY CARES, well obviously you do, but other than that...
It's only a game guys, don't worry about it, to be fair I don't like either system. There is NO way to do it so everyone will be happy, just enjoy it while you can, the more we moan the later it will be.
I don't moan, I simply discuss the existing serpenting system as it is. Isn't that what discussion boards are for - to discuss things? Plus, it doesn't hold up TOTC3 since the system for this edition will not change.
Well, I wasn't talking to you, or anyone in particular, just generally, sorry, bit immature of me. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 03-12-2013 21:00
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Jesleyh wrote:
Well, you'll find out in Stage 1 to be exact
I thought so. I could have wanted him, too. But being that far down it is not so clever for me to go for it
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| The Rider |
Posted on 03-12-2013 22:36
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Right I am issuing an ultimatum. The remaining four guys have until This Thursday @ 15:00 GMT to send me their rider lists. If they are not sent by this time then all 27 of their picks will be randomly chosen.
Hopefully we can get them all in by tomorrow dinner time though! : |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-12-2013 08:05
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Can they be randomly assigned after the people who did send in draft lists? Last time it was a bit annoying in the rounds where I got last that a few people got random picks I was after.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jaxika |
Posted on 04-12-2013 09:06
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Ollfardh wrote:
Can they be randomly assigned after the people who did send in draft lists? Last time it was a bit annoying in the rounds where I got last that a few people got random picks I was after.
+1 |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 04-12-2013 11:40
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+1, seems like a good suggestion by Ollfardh.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| The Rider |
Posted on 04-12-2013 16:38
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Ollfardh wrote:
Can they be randomly assigned after the people who did send in draft lists? Last time it was a bit annoying in the rounds where I got last that a few people got random picks I was after.
Sure.
Only three more lists needed, c'mon guys! |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
