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La Vuelta 2012 expectations
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| 9-Ball |
Posted on 24-07-2012 22:37
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'Fresh' might be a hindrance to Little Al, however. He may be fresh to the point of being far from big race ready. In the TdF he'd have that first week to possibly get up to a racing edge. This (heroic) Vuelta course however will throw him into the thick of things very early on. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't have enough juice for the GC.
Zroome on the other hand, he could eat the planet Neptune for breakfast and still be hungry for Jupiter by tea time. I hear he collects Zeus costumes. This kid is really something and he's only 27. By the time he's 30 ... who knows! All I can say is, they're gonna need some bigger Alps. 
It was eleven more than necessary.
Jacques Anquetil
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| Movistar |
Posted on 25-07-2012 03:58
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Just hope Andy can make this as the course sets up great for him and watching Alberto, Froome, Andy on these steep climbs would be awesome.
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| Ybodonk |
Posted on 25-07-2012 13:58
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Aquarius wrote:
ruben wrote:
Giro 2011 Contador would beat Froome's ass. So that's bs. Maybe you forgot he rode 2011 Tour with already a Giro in his leggs? (where he easily destroyed Nibali uphill and could even ride at 90% the last 3 mountain stages because the lead was too big...)
So I don't get the whole Contador wasn't at a good level in 2011 bullshit.
Yes he wasn't good in the Tour, but with the amount of race days he had and the amount of races he had gone full in, that's normal.
Giro 2011 Contador managed 420 W on his best ascents. And he soft-pedalled the rest of the way.
At the Tour he managed 400-410, which I agree, is a level below (it's like the usual difference between the third or fourth G.C. rider and the strongest one).
So, even at the Giro, he was far from his former best, like a couple of other "miraculous" performers, actually.
How much did Froome manage this year ? 415 average, and obviously he wasn't giving it all. Hint : he and his group climbed Peyresourde almost as fast as the best Contador from 2007.
So, no, Contador wouldn't beat Froome's ass. Not in biblical proportions at least. Thin margins maybe.
Maybe the number of racing days made Contador fade, I'm not denying that, but there's a dozen of other plausible explanations for that, so calling it BS is a bit strong, IMO.
Question mark is on both Froome motivation (and level) and Contador's form (and level) for the Vuelta.
Aquarius you know that i respect you and your expert opinions. And i value that you obv. do know a lot about watts and scientific part of cycling.
I dont know how to explain this in english but i will try.
Contador was not competing against the best in those two Giros.
If you have a runner, take Usain Bolt. He will not break be able to produce his maximum wattages and quickest run without competing against the best. This also leads to a higher avg tempo/speed. Same goes for Haile Gebreselasies earlier WR in diff. running. When the best are theire, then the true potential will be revealed and forfilled.
Do you understand my point?
Contador didn't have to ride faster than the 420 w because of the competition. It was a weak Nibali Scarponi Di Luca or whoever he was riding against.
I am 100 percent that Contador wiill adapt to the current pace by Sky.
Let the pace be at 420 avg W im 100 percent certain that Contador will have the potential to break all these W records, and current paces that Sky are setting.
Contador is a sports ferrari. He has been riding at the 5th gear, maybe sometimes at 6th year. But yet he hasnt revealed his true potential, because he was never forced out in these situation and competition level.
He still has a 7th gear where he also can press the "sports" button.
Everything is relative and so is the pace in cycling.
Contadors earlier watt perfomances was relative to the current pace at that time.
Hope you understand my methaphoric reflections.
Edited by Ybodonk on 25-07-2012 14:05
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| ricotero_uy |
Posted on 25-07-2012 16:28
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My only expectation for this Vuelta is that Fabricio Ferrari could be in the Caja Rural list.
He would make history becoming the first uruguayan racing in a GT. |
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| Aquarius |
Posted on 25-07-2012 20:33
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Ybodonk : had it been for Contador only, then your vision of things, and other people's one would be very possible.
But I don't think it is what happened. I know my theory has a lot of speculation in it as well, but let me write it.
Between the 2000's and until 2010 (included), all the best G.T. riders produced insane wattages. In 2011, the figures were all lower. Were the best riders of the late 2000's still there ? Yes they were. Contador, A. Schleck, Evans, etc. All those who managed to reach figures that I don't consider natural faded. Contador and A. Schleck being the most blatant examples.
As a result, a guy like Cadel Evans, who still managed to perform at the same level as before, won the Tour de France. Rolland won the Alpe d'Huez stage and Voeckler was 4th in Paris.
There are only two possibilities about Contador 2011 : he soft-pedalled all through the Giro, or he dug into himself there. I know it's a caricature, don't get cynical.
If he soft-pedalled and did only 420 W, he should have been able to show his real level (440 W average) at the Tour de France, and win it easily, or do 420 but manage the race and the gaps to his opponents. With 420 on his best climbs he won the Giro.
At the Tour de France he could have won with that, or close to, but he was under that level (more 405-410). He shouldn't have decreased if he didn't waste himself at the Giro. Conclusion : despite not facing the best riders, he got wasted in Italy. And when he, according to you or Ruben, could have adapted to his opponents, or crushed the field in France, he was stuck below his Giro level.
Why ? The only obvious reason, according to me, and it works for A. Schleck as well, is that the blood passport, or the biological one, and better testing, made all those folks slow down on dope. And that didn't affect those who are or were supposed to be cleaner (Evans, Europcar leaders - although one year later it seems they're not that clean after all).
That's why, given this year wattages so far this year, I can't see Contador performing anywhere close to his former level. Probably somewhere near his Giro 2011 level. A little above if he's peaking or had found better "methods", a little below if he's suffering from a lack of competition. In both case that'd put him around Sky level in the mountains. No way he'd be miles above them.
As for Bolt : he and his likes avoid each other as much as they could, and unless they're in for breaking a PB or a world record, or an Olympic finale, they sprint for victory, not for the time. They break records when they're peaking, and they try to peak for their season main objective. I'm sure they'd manage the same performances against a bunch of nobodies if they were racing the same races at that time. |
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| Ybodonk |
Posted on 26-07-2012 09:31
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Aquarius wrote:
Ybodonk : had it been for Contador only, then your vision of things, and other people's one would be very possible.
But I don't think it is what happened. I know my theory has a lot of speculation in it as well, but let me write it.
Between the 2000's and until 2010 (included), all the best G.T. riders produced insane wattages. In 2011, the figures were all lower. Were the best riders of the late 2000's still there ? Yes they were. Contador, A. Schleck, Evans, etc. All those who managed to reach figures that I don't consider natural faded. Contador and A. Schleck being the most blatant examples.
As a result, a guy like Cadel Evans, who still managed to perform at the same level as before, won the Tour de France. Rolland won the Alpe d'Huez stage and Voeckler was 4th in Paris.
There are only two possibilities about Contador 2011 : he soft-pedalled all through the Giro, or he dug into himself there. I know it's a caricature, don't get cynical.
If he soft-pedalled and did only 420 W, he should have been able to show his real level (440 W average) at the Tour de France, and win it easily, or do 420 but manage the race and the gaps to his opponents. With 420 on his best climbs he won the Giro.
At the Tour de France he could have won with that, or close to, but he was under that level (more 405-410). He shouldn't have decreased if he didn't waste himself at the Giro. Conclusion : despite not facing the best riders, he got wasted in Italy. And when he, according to you or Ruben, could have adapted to his opponents, or crushed the field in France, he was stuck below his Giro level.
Why ? The only obvious reason, according to me, and it works for A. Schleck as well, is that the blood passport, or the biological one, and better testing, made all those folks slow down on dope. And that didn't affect those who are or were supposed to be cleaner (Evans, Europcar leaders - although one year later it seems they're not that clean after all).
That's why, given this year wattages so far this year, I can't see Contador performing anywhere close to his former level. Probably somewhere near his Giro 2011 level. A little above if he's peaking or had found better "methods", a little below if he's suffering from a lack of competition. In both case that'd put him around Sky level in the mountains. No way he'd be miles above them.
As for Bolt : he and his likes avoid each other as much as they could, and unless they're in for breaking a PB or a world record, or an Olympic finale, they sprint for victory, not for the time. They break records when they're peaking, and they try to peak for their season main objective. I'm sure they'd manage the same performances against a bunch of nobodies if they were racing the same races at that time.
About the soft pedalling thing in 2011, even though he saved himself a bit and could produce 440 w. I do believe that the Giro was so hard that he lost a lot of fatigue and stamina. That affected his TDF and made him "only ride 410 w". Dont forget he also wrote the whole year until the Giro and won almost race attended in.
So i do think it is very possible that he was very exhausted when he arrived at the TDF 2011.
A man of your intellectual level should also have this in mind.
But lets say he beats Froome in this Vuelta, and also beats everybody in next years TDF, can we agree on that i am right then ?
And if Sky beats Contador again this year and next year, then i will surrender and eat my own hat.
But yes it could also be that they dope a bit less compared to earlier. |
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| Trout80 |
Posted on 26-07-2012 12:33
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I think Froome will be tought to be on Vuelta. He was already at TDF certainly the best man on mountains.
Hopefully Cobo and other can give at least good challenge to him. |
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Posted on 25-11-2024 08:37
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| issoisso |
Posted on 26-07-2012 17:36
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All this talk about Contador being tired at the Tour....are none of you aware he injured his knee in the early stage crash?
According to him, that affected his performance a lot more because he was always in pain.
The preceding post is ISSO 9001 certified
"I love him, I think he's great. He's transformed the sport in so many ways. Every person in cycling has benefitted from Lance Armstrong, perhaps not financially but in some sense" - Bradley Wiggins on Lance Armstrong
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| Guido Mukk |
Posted on 26-07-2012 23:02
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issoisso wrote:
All this talk about Contador being tired at the Tour....are none of you aware he injured his knee in the early stage crash?
According to him, that affected his performance a lot more because he was always in pain.
Correct
man was injured ..has just won toughest Giro. Was still ready to atack..even over 100km before finish. I realy miss him after 2012 Tour |
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| Montolivo |
Posted on 26-07-2012 23:05
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Guido Mukk wrote:
issoisso wrote:
All this talk about Contador being tired at the Tour....are none of you aware he injured his knee in the early stage crash?
According to him, that affected his performance a lot more because he was always in pain.
Correct
man was injured ..has just won toughest Giro. Was still ready to atack..even over 100km before finish. I realy miss him after 2012 Tour
Really?  Can't say i like him, but this years tour was a bit boring. |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 27-07-2012 05:53
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Montolivo wrote:
Guido Mukk wrote:
issoisso wrote:
All this talk about Contador being tired at the Tour....are none of you aware he injured his knee in the early stage crash?
According to him, that affected his performance a lot more because he was always in pain.
Correct
man was injured ..has just won toughest Giro. Was still ready to atack..even over 100km before finish. I realy miss him after 2012 Tour
Really? Can't say i like him, but this years tour was a bit boring.
And that is what is Guido saying i think, that it would be less boring with him, if i got him right.
And i agree, same with Andy, both are able to make long-range GC attacks, not just wait. But dont worry, just less than a month and we have the steak lover back in action.
Edit: Or is he going to Burgos? That would be even sooner...
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 27-07-2012 05:54
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| Pellizotti2 |
Posted on 27-07-2012 08:12
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I think his first race is Eneco Tour, but I'm not sure. Will be fun to see what he can do on the Muur stage. 
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 27-07-2012 08:24
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Pellizotti2 wrote:
I think his first race is Eneco Tour, but I'm not sure. Will be fun to see what he can do on the Muur stage.
True, it is mentioned on the Eneco web when i now look there. Strange choice, as Burgos would be better preparation fo the Vuelta imo, maybe he doesnt wanna show himself in the mountains much?
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 27-07-2012 08:24
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| CountArach |
Posted on 27-07-2012 09:20
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Pellizotti2 wrote:
I think his first race is Eneco Tour, but I'm not sure. Will be fun to see what he can do on the Muur stage.
True, it is mentioned on the Eneco web when i now look there. Strange choice, as Burgos would be better preparation fo the Vuelta imo, maybe he doesnt wanna show himself in the mountains much?
High profile race which will make the sponsors happy. Also higher quality of opposition (though not great). Not to mention it is good practice for the TT, which he will probably want to get some practice in with before the Vuelta.
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| kumazan |
Posted on 27-07-2012 11:03
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Yeah, there's also that little detail that he's banned when Burgos start, but whatever. 
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| abel2323 |
Posted on 27-07-2012 11:20
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No vuelta for Andy (https://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=53900)
what a surprise!!!! |
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| Pellizotti2 |
Posted on 27-07-2012 11:22
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He seriously can't focus on anything else than the Tour.
This time he has an okay excuse with the injury at least.
Edited by Pellizotti2 on 27-07-2012 11:23
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| kumazan |
Posted on 27-07-2012 11:32
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What the hell? He'll ride the Worlds but not Lombardia? Oh ffs.
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| Pellizotti2 |
Posted on 27-07-2012 11:36
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kumazan wrote:
What the hell? He'll ride the Worlds but not Lombardia? Oh ffs.
We shouldn't blame him. After all, you get really tired after riding nine races in one season. And finishing in all of them... oh wait, scratch that.
Also, four of those nine were one day races. 
Edited by Pellizotti2 on 27-07-2012 11:36
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 27-07-2012 11:42
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kumazan wrote:
Yeah, there's also that little detail that he's banned when Burgos start, but whatever.
I thought he is free to ride from 1st of August, my bad than
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