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Introducing: Man-Game Fantasy Betting
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| SotD |
Posted on 10-04-2012 19:38
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World Champion
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Damn the odds are low for the TdF... Betting on Taaramae or Kashechkin or those likes should give 10.00 or so imo. Those odds are WAAY too low.
If I was to put them, I would do something like this:
Cunego 1.75
Madrazo 2.25
Pluchkin 2.75
Dekker 3.00
Spilak 3.00
Phinney 5.50
Fothen 6.50
Uran 6.50
Popovych 7.00
Amador 7.75
Kashechkin 8.50
Karpets 8.00
Taaramae 9.00
Henao 11.00
D.Martin 12.50
F.Marquez 17.00
Another Rider 14.50
As a bookie, you want people to think they get a bargain, by putting money on a rider, the betting company knows well enough stands no chance of winning the race.
Edited by SotD on 10-04-2012 19:38
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 10-04-2012 19:59
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The odds of Dan Martin making the top ten are probably 4.5!
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| jph27 |
Posted on 11-04-2012 17:05
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Team Leader
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No bet for Tour Stage 1, due to lack of time between now and it happening. Stage 2 should have one though.  |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 12-04-2012 11:09
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Tour de France Stage 2
| Ventoso | 2.5 | | Trofimov | 2.75 | | Cunego | 3 | | Impey | 3.5 | | Vastaranta | 3.75 | | Van Stayen | 4 | | Swift | 4.5 | | Kreder | 4.5 | | Dekker | 5 | | Spilak | 5 | | Pluchkin | 5 | | Goss | 5.5 | | Granjel Cabrera | 5.5 | | Another rider | 5.75 | | Phinney | 6.25 | | Holloway | 6.5 | | Luke Rowe | 6.5 |
Thanks to Avin Wargunsson for helping out, having two of us doing odds and bets, etc is making things much easier. PM your bet to either of us, and if Avin posts odds then they are fine to bet on. |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 12-04-2012 13:25
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World Champion
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jph27 wrote:
Tour de France Stage 2
| Ventoso | 2.5 | | Trofimov | 2.75 | | Cunego | 3 | | Impey | 3.5 | | Vastaranta | 3.75 | | Van Stayen | 4 | | Swift | 4.5 | | Kreder | 4.5 | | Dekker | 5 | | Spilak | 5 | | Pluchkin | 5 | | Goss | 5.5 | | Granjel Cabrera | 5.5 | | Another rider | 5.75 | | Phinney | 6.25 | | Holloway | 6.5 | | Luke Rowe | 6.5 |
Thanks to Avin Wargunsson for helping out, having two of us doing odds and bets, etc is making things much easier. PM your bet to either of us, and if Avin posts odds then they are fine to bet on.
This is my first placing of odds, so if anybody has some suggestions to make them better, he is more then welcomed to share his experience with me
Edit: And ever more difficult start because of stage 2 being so unpredictable. Rated as flat and mountainous as the queen stage...
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 12-04-2012 13:27
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 12-04-2012 13:27
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Id still say the odds need to be more spread out - with higher odds for the more outsiders. Having 6.5 for the 15th/16th favourites is very low!
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 12-04-2012 13:30
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World Champion
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SportingNonsense wrote:
Id still say the odds need to be more spread out - with higher odds for the more outsiders. Having 6.5 for the 15th/16th favourites is very low!
Good point, as i was not sure about this myself, thanks for feedback, i will reflect that in some latter stages if i will be the one doing them.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 13-04-2012 10:28
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World Champion
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Tour de France - Stage 3
| Phinney | 2 | | Cancellara | 2.5 | | Keizer | 4.25 | | Fiedler | 5 | | Dekker | 5.25 | | Pluchkin | 5.5 | | Karpets | 6 | | Bernaudeau | 6.5 | | Fothen | 7.25 | | Uran | 7.5 | | Trofimov | 7.5 | | Kritskiy | 8.25 | | Grabovski | 8.5 | | Spilak | 9 | | Madrazo | 10.25 | | Another rider | 7.75 |
Stage 3 is 28 kms long TT. Should we look beyond World ITT champion Taylor Phinney?
His main rival could be diesel-powered Fabien Cancellara, who will maybe regret his two attacks in previous stages. Or maybe flying Dutchman Martijn Keizer from Bacardi or GC guys like Dekker, Pluchkin, Fothen will surprise the rest?
Please send PM with your bets to jph27 or to me.
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 13-04-2012 10:30
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 15:16
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 13-04-2012 13:28
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Classics Specialist
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Quick Tip: Think of the odds as a percentage as this is how bookmaker make markets in real life for horse racing/cycling/Football each odds have a percentage and when you add all the percentage together it is usually equal to 110% some bookmaker try and go over some come under. Usually though 117% is what it comes to.
So on here you have
2 - Evens - 50%
2.5 - 6/4 - 45%
4.25 - 10/3 - 33%
5 - 4/1 - 20%
as you can see you have already hit 148%(which if you did in real life punters would outrage) with just 4 riders so to make the odds more realistic try to decide between you who you feel is a the winner you will then place said rider in the spot and give him a percentage chance of winning.
Do so for about 8 - 9 riders(remeber the another rider option) untill you have a percentage for each rider. Check what the percentage equals then chop change percentage till you are happy with your over-round before publishing the odds. You can then get clever offer a group of riders at attractive odds that you feel will not trouble your favourite or favourites in the hope of enticing costumers offer match betting or things that are more harder to predict but you can give short prices to e.g
In real life:
Cavendish to win
1 stage
2
3
4
5
6
7
Though there are only 7 options it is highly difficult to predict how many times Cavendish will have the oppurtuanity to sprint may have crashed / pulled out etc.
So you can offer shorter prices for the higher stages with him being so dominant but can spread it over a number of days knowing that it is highly unlikely that you will lose more money then you will take with it being spread over 7 days and the unpreditablity.
Hope this helps and Good Luck
If you need anymore help PM me.
P.S JPH i am looking forward to watching you race Saturday your riding against a couple of team mates of mine so Good Luck! |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 13-04-2012 13:33
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Thanks for that, afraid I won't be going on Saturday though (parents going away/at work), although I may be doing the second weekend in two weeks. |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 13-04-2012 19:34
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Team Leader
Posts: 7374
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Tour of Slovenia GC Winners
Mresuperstar - 65
Count Arach - 32.5
Original bets are of course returned. |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 13-04-2012 19:36
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Team Leader
Posts: 7374
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Overall Standings
| ember | 490 | | Alakagom | 435 | | Sporting Nonsense | 290 | | Mresuperstar | 235 | | Count Arach | 222.5 | | SotD | 190 | | viking90 | 190 | | Sykkel_Freak | 155 | | Smowz | 110 | | Avin Wargunsson | 100 | | Miguel98 | 100 | | rycadinho | 100 | | brownwm | 90 | | wackojackohighcliffe | 0 |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 14-04-2012 10:10
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World Champion
Posts: 13662
Joined: 20-06-2011
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Tour de France - stage 4
| Cunego | 1.5 | | Trofimov | 2.75 | | Spilak | 3.75 | | Popovych | 4.25 | | Phinney | 5.75 | | Caruso | 6.75 | | Albasini | 7.5 | | Martin | 7.75 | | Mehr-Wenige | 9.5 | | Vastaranta | 10.5 | | F.Marquez | 13 | | Another rider | 3.25 |
Stage 4 is the last stage on the beautiful island of Corsica, but nothing beautiful awaits the riders. Seven classified hills/mountains on the road concluded by the hill-top finish.
Will we see the first succesful breakaway stealing the glory, or maybe legendary Cunego will try to gain back some time on his rivals and the actual leader Taylor Phinney? Watch out for Trofimov also, as he is going for a hattrick on Corsica...
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 14-04-2012 10:12
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| SotD |
Posted on 18-04-2012 10:23
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
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jph27 wrote:
Tour de France - Points Classification
Will the route eliminate the stronger sprinters in the mountains, meaning the strong men have a better chance than the fast men?
| Vanderbiest | 3 | | Lo Cicero | 3.25 | | Swift | 3.5 | | van Stayen | 3.5 | | Granjel Cabrera | 3.5 | | Holloway | 3.5 | | Ventoso | 3.5 | | Kreder | 3.5 | | Goss | 3.75 | | Avelino | 3.75 | | Duque | 4 | | Galdos | 4 | | Lavoine | 4.25 | | Forero | 4.25 | | Vanoverschelde | 4.25 | | C.Meyer | 4.25 | | L.Rowe | 4.25 | | Vastaranta | 5 | | Howard | 5 | | Another Rider | 5.5 |
My bet of 100 for another rider seems solid at this point. Ventoso is the only "real" threat at this point, but Cunego solid climbing, and Trofimov a monster on the hilly stages, I feel fairly sure that I will snatch me some 550 from this
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 20-04-2012 08:12
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World Champion
Posts: 13662
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After the little break, there are two options to make a man-game bet. These are not the stages that are pending in the first place, but you will have a chance to think about it and send your bet to jph27.
Tour de France-stage 10 Bagnères-de-Luchon - Col de Portet
| Cunego 1.75 | | Pluchkin 2.25 | | Madrazo 2.50 | | Dekker 4 | | Fothen 4.50 | | Henao Montoya 6.25 | | P.Velits 8.25 | | Gadret 8.50 | | D.Martin 9.5 | | R. van der Hugenhaben 12.5 | | C.Barredo 13.5 | | Hoogerland 14.5 | | Another rider 3.5 |
Stage 10 is the real mountain killer, as SN said in the preview. Col du Peyresourde, Col d'Azet, Col d'Aspin, Hourquette d'Ancizan and the summit finish at Col de Portet. Nobody wants to have a bad day here! So the battle of GC riders and the pure climbers continue, who will prevail?
Int. Osterreich Rundfahrt - Stage 5
| Valverde 1.75 | | Ben Nasser 3.25 | | Pozzovivo 3.75 | | Van den Broeck 4.75 | | De la Fuente 5.50 | | Lloret 7.75 | | Caruso 8 | | Rujano 8.50 | | Löfkvist 9.25 | | Txurruka 10.50 | | Capecchi 12.5 | | Another rider 2.75 |
The day after the brutal climb to Grossglockner, there is another pretty tough stage rated hilly. There is a nasty climb in the middle of the route and also an uphill finish to the line. Will the sprinters survive? Probably not, so watch for the punchers and climbers like Valverde,Ben Nasser or De la Fuente. The win for the breakaway is also quite possible.
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 20-04-2012 08:14
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 27-04-2012 09:04
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World Champion
Posts: 13662
Joined: 20-06-2011
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As stage 11 report is probably behind the door already, the next chance for those interested in the man-game betting is stage 12 of TdF.
The stage is rated as flat and the profile is quite similar to the stage 8, which was won by Ventoso. He will be again the favourite together with the other sprinters, but the breakaway win is also not impossible, as the teams would save themselves for the mountains rather than chasing maybe.
Tour de France - stage 12
Link to the profiles
| Ventoso | 2 | | Swift | 2.75 | | Van Stayen | 3.75 | | Goss | 4 | | Granjel Cabrera | 4.25 | | Vanderbiest | 5 | | Kreder | 5.75 | | Vastaranta | 6.5 | | Trofimov | 7.5 | | Cunego | 8.25 | | Paterski | 9.5 | | Cancellara | 10.5 | | Summerhill | 12 | | Another rider | 2.5 |
Again send your bets to jph27...
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 27-04-2012 10:02
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 03-05-2012 07:16
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World Champion
Posts: 13662
Joined: 20-06-2011
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Tour de France - stage 14
Link to the profiles
| Cunego | 1.75 | | Trofimov | 2 | | Spilak | 3.5 | | Phinney | 4.25 | | Popovych | 4.75 | | Madrazo | 6.25 | | Cataldo | 6.50 | | Dekker | 6.75 | | van der Hugenhaben | 7.50 | | Mehr-Wenige | 8.75 | | S.Chavanel | 10.25 | | El Fares | 10.5 | | Kreuziger | 12 | | Another rider | 3.25 |
The Tour circus enters the Alps with the tough hilly stage finishing on short but steep Mont Colombis. The favourites should be fresh and ready after the two sprinter stages.
The stage profile favours the punchers, rather than pure climbers, so Trofimov is the big favourite once again, besides Cunego of course, who wants to put some time on likes Pluchkin and Madrazo before the last week.
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 03-05-2012 07:16
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 10-05-2012 13:01
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World Champion
Posts: 13662
Joined: 20-06-2011
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Post Danmark Rundt - Stage 3
Link to the profiles
| Haussler | 3 | | Napolitano | 3.75 | | Vantomme | 4.50 | | Breschel | 5 | | Bonnet | 6.25 | | Haedo | 7.50 | | Crocket | 8.50 | | Vanspeybrouck | 9 | | Boom | 9.25 | | Kluge | 10.50 | | Mohs | 12.75 | | Dekkers | 13.50 | | Another rider | 2.75 |
Stage 3 of this interesting north European CT stage race has interesting profile. Will this be race for sprinters, punchers, or cobblers? Maybe the rider who combine these disciplines well, will have the biggest chance in stage 3, someone like Haussler or Breschel?
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 10-05-2012 13:03
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