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2014 Tour Down Under (21 to 26 January)
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| CountArach |
Posted on 25-01-2014 08:46
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Let me rephrase: Ulissi can't perform in a bunch sprint against actual sprinters. I know he can sprint out of a smaller group very well, but that isn't enough to get the stage victory here. The only option would be for Lampre to control things to get to the bonus sprints and hope that he can top 3 it there.
It reminds me of the 2010 Tirreno-Adriatico where Garzelli picked up the bonus time on the final stage on the criterium circuit.
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| ianrussell |
Posted on 25-01-2014 09:28
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Good stage again. TDU has been a great WT opener. I just need to live in a different time zone in January and it would be perfect early season viewing. |
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| Kalach |
Posted on 25-01-2014 11:04
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issoisso wrote:
Kalach wrote:
I would say Evans is somehow back.. Doesnt matter that he is 36...! He will beat Gerrans as well as Porte in stage 5 
Based on all the gun-jumping you did earlier, are you now going to predict that Evans is so finished he'll end his career tomorrow?
Well I was wrong.. But I think BMC boys lost jersey for Evans..Sorry but only Bookwalter and Wyss for him on the final climb?? They were exhausted too early and then Evans had to attack too soon as there was mentioned..Morabito and Moinard stucked away from Evans group....
Edited by Kalach on 25-01-2014 11:06
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| cio93 |
Posted on 25-01-2014 11:10
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Well that was due to OGE setting an incredible tempo down the descent, causing splits they weren't aware of.
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| mb2612 |
Posted on 25-01-2014 11:40
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Impey is riding really nicely, he's qualified for the worlds already .
 [url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182] Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 07:30
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 25-01-2014 11:42
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If Impey wasn't riding with Gerrans at Milano San Remo, I would be staking some money on him E/W. Really continuing well as he left off last year.
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| Malkael |
Posted on 25-01-2014 14:43
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Stage 6 - Adelaide Street Circuit (85.5 KM)
(Click to Enlarge)
Sitting tenderly upon the shoulders of Orica – GreenEDGE's Simon Gerrans, could the Ochre Jersey change hands yet again during the 2014 Tour Down Under's finale?
With just five seconds separating first place Simon Gerrans from third place Diego Ulissi, the Tour Down Under could still have a few surprises up its sleeve. Not only are there six bonus seconds available out on course via the two intermediate sprints, but during last year's finale several splits occurred in the peloton during the bunch sprint.
Such fine margins means Gerrans, Cadel Evans and Diego Ulissi shall have to remain alert throughout Stage Six. One slightest lapse in concentration could potentially cost Simon Gerrans and Orica – GreenEDGE the overall victory and see the Ochre Jersey back on Evans' shoulders.
Contrary to Stage Four of the 2014 Tour Down Under, Orica – GreenEDGE will be under no pressure to control the breakaway in the interests of winning the intermediate sprints. Although Evans and Ulissi could potentially attempt to overturn Gerrans' advantage, Orica – GreenEDGE should have enough fire-power to mop up the time bonuses through the likes of Matthew Goss and Michael Matthews.
(Click to Enlarge)
With no categorised climbs on the 18 lap 4.75 kilometre long circuit the King of the Mountains classification will see no changes today. The same should, if I have my calculations correct, be true of the Points classification, where Simon Gerrans should have an almost unassailable lead over Diego Ulissi.
Similar to the fourth stage of the 2014 Tour Down Under, the peloton will once again be required to navigate their way through two 90-degree turns within 700 metres of the finishing line. As the cyclists travel back up Flinders Street towards the finishing line they will make a left turn in to Hutt Street with 650 metres remaining before turning right in to Bartels Road 100 metres later to sprint 550 metres for the line.
With both Flinders Street and Hutt Street being utilised to ferry the peloton towards and away from the finishing line these two roads will be divided in half, minimising the space available to the peloton. With space at a premium approaching the finishing line positioning shall be key leading in to the bunch sprint, with the road potentially widening when the peloton turn on to Bartels Road.
Acceleration out of the corners will also be a key determiner in deciding who emerges with the stage victory. The lead-out trains will find it difficult to maintain a high speed through the two corners, and just 550 metres of finishing straight will make it difficult for the sprinters to achieve their maximum speed before the line without an explosive kick.
Favourites, Outsiders and the Joker
Lotto Belisol will be the team to defeat when it comes time for the battle of the lead outs, and will almost certainly keep Andre Greipel to the very front of the peloton. After claiming victory during the fourth stage of the 2014 Tour Down Under, the Belgian team and their German sprinter shall be confident of making it two victories from three attempts.
Giant – Shimano's Marcel Kittel shall be looking for revenge after seeing his hopes of claiming victory on Stage Four dashed by the efforts of Orica – GreenEDGE during the crosswinds. The German sprinter has the acceleration required to scorch by his rivals, however, he will need to be well positioned to ensure he has sufficient road remaining before the line.
Cannondale's Elia Viviani has the potential to upset everyone in the bunch sprint, however, his poor positioning degrades his chances. Should the Italian sprinter be able to keep himself with a few positions of the front of the peloton his blistering speed and acceleration could see him claim a unforeseen victory.
I suspect Orica – GreenEDGE's intentions will be firmly focused on protecting Simon Gerrans' Ochre Jersey, so we may not any of the Australian outfit's sprinters contest for the stage victory. Should Michael Matthews or Matthew Goss receive permission to have a crack at the stage victory they may even be left alone to their own devices without a lead out.
The shorter criterium-like nature of Stage Six means Caleb Ewan could be a dark horse for a podium position if he can repeat his performance from the People's Cycling Classic. Should Ewan be able to freelance his way on to the correct backwheel, the Australian could easily compensate for the lack of a world class lead out. In a conflict of blistering acceleration, rather than just top end speed, the youngster may even have an outside chance of usurping Kittel and Greipel.
Other outside sprinters hoping to upset the apple cart and snatch a surprise stage victory include; the Van Poppels or Fabio Felline of Trek Factory Racing, Mark Renshaw or Julian Alaphilippe of Omega Pharma – Quick-Step, the erratic Roberto Ferrari of Lampre – Merida, Steele Von Hoff of Garmin – Sharp and Jonathan Cantwell of Drapac Pro Cycling.
Are we in for one last surprising twist in the tale? Or will Simon Gerrans hold on to win the 2014 Tour Down Under as predicted? Can Marcel Kittel claim finally a stage victory before the race is over?
Edited by Malkael on 26-01-2014 02:05
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 25-01-2014 14:45
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I could see Evans sprinting for boni seconds! |
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| ruben |
Posted on 25-01-2014 16:40
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Gesinks power data from Willunga stage are on strave.. thought it would be interesting:
https://www.strava...2369092401
He also put the one of corkscrew up a few days ago.
484w for 7 minutes this early in the season... Means Porte must have done some big numbers as well. Porte is of course lighter than Gesink which means he would need less absolute watts to climb well |
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| fosforgasXIII |
Posted on 25-01-2014 16:50
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Kittel to win, Greipel second, Ewan or Viviani third. |
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 25-01-2014 17:44
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Just caught up with yesterdays action and i have to say Richie Porte looked awesome on that last climb
Its going to be an exciting finale in Adelaide  |
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| Matthew21rp |
Posted on 25-01-2014 17:51
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Evans will manage to get a time bonus at an intermediate sprint. Gerrans will then contest the sprint finish trying to get his jersey back. He will some how take advantage of a messed up Lotto train to take the stage and the Ochre Jersey
Edited by Matthew21rp on 25-01-2014 17:52
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| cio93 |
Posted on 25-01-2014 17:58
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The only chance for Evans taking it would be a split during the sprint where Gerro somehow misses out due to a crash, mechanical or such.
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| RobbieMcEwen_Jaune |
Posted on 25-01-2014 23:49
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Matthew21rp wrote:
Evans will manage to get a time bonus at an intermediate sprint. Gerrans will then contest the sprint finish trying to get his jersey back. He will some how take advantage of a messed up Lotto train to take the stage and the Ochre Jersey
Somehow I just don't see this happening. There would have to be no BOTD or the BOTD would have to consist of 2 riders or less. Plus even if this were to happen I can't see Evans outsprinting the best 3 sprinters from OGE. Nor do I see Gerrans winning a stage like this. |
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| 547984 |
Posted on 25-01-2014 23:53
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Matthew21rp wrote:
Evans will manage to get a time bonus at an intermediate sprint. Gerrans will then contest the sprint finish trying to get his jersey back. He will some how take advantage of a messed up Lotto train to take the stage and the Ochre Jersey
Only chance of that happening is a PCM team attack
And I think Greipel takes today's stage because he has a better train. Last km's are very technical iirc from last year
Edited by 547984 on 25-01-2014 23:54
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| wogsrus |
Posted on 26-01-2014 00:51
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This course this year is different to last year. No climbs but much more technical. Hopefully nobody touches down. |
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| Malkael |
Posted on 26-01-2014 02:07
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What's the world record for quickest crash? Europcar and Katusha trying hard to break it.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 26-01-2014 02:43
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First bonus seconds go to the breakaway (Berard, Belkov, W. Clarke).
Well, the only real strategy BMC could have is to give the second sprint to the break as well and hope for a fluke in the third.
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| VeR92 |
Posted on 26-01-2014 03:11
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If I was Ulissi, I would have thought that I was faster than Gerrans and pulled the break back to the intermediate sprint and tried to take some seconds. |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 26-01-2014 03:23
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If BMC doesn't give a fuck about the GC, I hope they at least give Zabel a chance to contest a bunch sprint.
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