I agree it's impossible to predict who will become great in what area, but I do think it's possible to predict how far a rider will go, or whether he'll actually have any good results. It appears to help if your dad was a cyclist for one. But thats probably because they get the correct training. Not only training, but I reckon mentally, the ones that succeed, are much stronger than those weaker willed/motivated/confident/etc.
issoisso wrote:
My point on that is that, so far, none of those three has shown the climbing performances of previous generations.
Throw a Beloki in there, and Beloki wins easily and is being compared to Merckx.
That's just how things go. Even Merkx himself is probably overhyped due to racing against slightly weaker generations than the usual ones.
I would say that Contador has proven his climbing prowess, although that makes sense for many other riders
421 watts as his best for this season. Even accounting for the decrease of doping in past seasons, that's "low" (meaning low for the best climber of a generation)
schleck93 wrote:
issoisso wrote:
I think he won't ever win it...
It's easy to say that everyone knew that Armstrong, Merckx, Induráin would be superstars, but at the same time, everyone "knew" that Jean-François Bernard, Valentino China or Yaroslav Popovich would be superstars....
Rumers will know that he stopped his carrer because he didn't want to keep doping but if he didn't dope he wouldn't win anything and get a proper salary, so he decided to stop his carerer[/quote]
That's pretty much what China said a couple years ago.
rjc_43 wrote:
issoisso wrote:
It's literally impossible to predict
I agree it's impossible to predict who will become great in what area, but I do think it's possible to predict how far a rider will go, or whether he'll actually have any good results. It appears to help if your dad was a cyclist for one. But thats probably because they get the correct training. Not only training, but I reckon mentally, the ones that succeed, are much stronger than those weaker willed/motivated/confident/etc.
EDIT: For example, Dan Martin has probably the best chance of many young Irish riders as he is believed in by his team manager 100%, and has such a great back up team behind him, provided at no extra cost to him, by Garmin.
I think it's impossible. You can try to guess with some chance of getting it right, but it's impossible to say "this guy will be this good".
As for the family ties, yeah, that's seen in most sports, it's really a question of mentality, of knowing from a young age exactly what it takes to win.
Well, sure, everything is always guess work, even if its worked, or something similar has worked in the past.
I don't doubt there are countless cyclists out there who's parents were pros, and they just didnt cut it as a cyclist for whatever reason. It's just we don't see them.
What I was attempting to get at, is that in this day and age, it appears that those with more social support, financial, training aid, etc, etc, get a lot further than those without. So you can almost predict that the young riders at Garmin, Columbia, CSC, etc, who have a solid support team in place, will do better than those riders elsewhere. Another example, look at British cycling and how much its taken off, and the road aspect from this year on (and in 2010 - The Sky Professional team), to see that support 100% behind the riders does get results. Especially in the youngsters.
Giro ProContinental wild cards (plus any possible surprise changes to the previously announced ones) will be announced in one month (end of january).
Joaquim RodrÃguez will be Caisse's GC rider. But something tells me he'll be half dead by then. He wants to be in top form for 3 consecutive months...
issoisso wrote:
Giro ProContinental wild cards (plus any possible surprise changes to the previously announced ones) will be announced in one month (end of january).
Joaquim RodrÃguez will be Caisse's GC rider. But something tells me he'll be half dead by then. He wants to be in top form for 3 consecutive months...
issoisso wrote:
Giro ProContinental wild cards (plus any possible surprise changes to the previously announced ones) will be announced in one month (end of january).
Joaquim RodrÃguez will be Caisse's GC rider. But something tells me he'll be half dead by then. He wants to be in top form for 3 consecutive months...
Which 3 months?
March (Paris-Nice)
April (Hilly classics)
Maj(Giro)
BenBarnes wrote:
Thor wears a live rattlesnake as a condom.
issoisso wrote:
Giro ProContinental wild cards (plus any possible surprise changes to the previously announced ones) will be announced in one month (end of january).
Joaquim RodrÃguez will be Caisse's GC rider. But something tells me he'll be half dead by then. He wants to be in top form for 3 consecutive months...
Which 3 months?
March (Paris-Nice)
April (Hilly classics)
Maj(Giro)
But he said he wanted to be on form for Tirreno (not Paris-Nice) and then Giro, plus he'll be GC contender for Vuelta for Caisse d'Epargne, wants a good result in WC, and would like to have good results in Classics! isn't it a little crazy I know he's a talented rider but ...
He has the talent for any of those individual things, but he can't possibly be in form for all of them in one year.
He wants to be in form for the Tirreno in March, Classics in April, Giro in May. Then a rest and the Vuelta and Worlds in August/September.
The problem there is March-May. It's from mid-march to end of may. His only chance is to hit top form right at the classics and then hold it through may, but even then he can't hold it all the way, it's impossible.
Edited by issoisso on 29-12-2008 11:15
issoisso wrote:
He has the talent for any of those individual things, but he can't possibly be in form for all of them in one year.
He wants to be in form for the Tirreno in March, Classics in April, Giro in May. Then a rest and the Vuelta and Worlds in August/September.
The problem there is March-May. It's from mid-march to end of may. His only chance is to hit top form right at the classics and then hold it through may, but even then he can't hold it all the way, it's impossible.
He'll maybe not be fully concentrated on Giro, more on Classics and Tirreno, and then later in the year, he'll try to have good results at Vuelta.
Too bad for Caisse he doesn't go to the Tour, cause with the help of Rodriguez, and a route that, i think, suits Valverde, they could make something good (only if Valverde doesn't have his usual GT bad day )
issoisso wrote:
I actually think he'll go full on from the giro, but be too tired from leading his team at the classics.
Yep, but why go full from, when you see the GC contenders there is going to be at the Giro ?
As for the Classics, when you also have Valverde, there's no problem for the leadership
A_Kloeden3 wrote:
Yep, but why go full from, when you see the GC contenders there is going to be at the Giro ?
Because it's a critical time in his career when he needs to prove he can be a GC contender of the top level. He's at the stage Sastre was in 2003/2004. He needs to show he is good enough to fight with the best.
A_Kloeden3 wrote:
As for the Classics, when you also have Valverde, there's no problem for the leadership
The difference being that for once in his career, Valverde will skip the classics so he can get to the Tour fresh and finally get a podium
A_Kloeden3 wrote:
Yep, but why go full from, when you see the GC contenders there is going to be at the Giro ?
Because it's a critical time in his career when he needs to prove he can be a GC contender of the top level. He's at the stage Sastre was in 2003/2004. He needs to show he is good enough to fight with the best.
agreed
issoisso wrote:
A_Kloeden3 wrote:
As for the Classics, when you also have Valverde, there's no problem for the leadership
The difference being that for once in his career, Valverde will skip the classics so he can get to the Tour fresh and finally get a podium
If Valverde has his usual bad day (Hautacam, vuelta this year), it's going to be difficult for the podium, with guys like Contador, Leipheimer, even Evans,or Sastre. But he can once be clever, and have a good tactic, something that he has never shown in GTs
He's not good enough to win. The idea here is that by skipping the classics he'll be fresher come Tour time and be able to gain enough time on the climbs to offset his time trial losses, especially with only one flat TT.
That said, his climbing has never been good enough to drop the favorites, so it's doubtful it will be now.
Smoothie shoots me in 3....2.....1.....Edited by issoisso on 29-12-2008 11:43
issoisso wrote:
He's not good enough to win. The idea here is that by skipping the classics he'll be fresher come Tour time and be able to gain enough time on the climbs to offset his time trial losses, especially with only one flat TT.
That said, his climbing has never been good enough to drop the favorites, so it's doubtful it will be now.
issoisso wrote:
He's not good enough to win. The idea here is that by skipping the classics he'll be fresher come Tour time and be able to gain enough time on the climbs to offset his time trial losses, especially with only one flat TT.
That said, his climbing has never been good enough to drop the favorites, so it's doubtful it will be now.
As Samuel Sánchez clearly shows us by his enormously different TT results every year, some riders are so well suited to those that they win them, and fall flat on their faces when the opposite (more frequent) type of course comes around.
issoisso wrote:
He's not good enough to win. The idea here is that by skipping the classics he'll be fresher come Tour time and be able to gain enough time on the climbs to offset his time trial losses, especially with only one flat TT.
That said, his climbing has never been good enough to drop the favorites, so it's doubtful it will be now.
As Samuel Sánchez clearly shows us by his enormously different TT results every year, some riders are so well suited to those that they win them, and fall flat on their faces when the opposite (more frequent) type of course comes around.
I don't know how the Annecy TT will be.
When you meant "only one flat TT", was it the Annecy one ? Cause the it starts with flat section, next to the lake, and then, the final part is hilly, with Col de Bluffy, and some other hills, before the finish.
I know he's a talented rider but ...
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