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Le Tour 09: Rest Day 2 - Verbier (SUI)
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| issoisso |
Posted on 20-07-2009 14:51
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People seem to have a misconception that when A attacks and B can't follow, that A is going to pay for that effort.
A is at the limit. But B is also at the limit, which is why B can't follow. B is going to suffer just as much.
Sastre is done for. Don't expect him to do more than he's doing now.
Wednesday we're going to find out if Wiggins can hold on. If he can, he's got a great chance at being third on the podium behind Contador and A. Schleck.
Despite the climb in the time trial, Schleck is going to lose quite a bit of time. And I can't possibly see him sticking with Contador in the mountains. Contador is extremely explosive, while Schleck struggles a bit with changes of speed. He's not someone with a great acceleration. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 28-11-2024 04:10
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| ruben |
Posted on 20-07-2009 14:52
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Without the TTT, Kreuziger would have been 18th at the moment.
So how would that be a bad prediction? |
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| Speedtrash |
Posted on 20-07-2009 14:59
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top 4 same as mine....
I totally agree with sastre, his time will come....
seldon71 wrote:
chrica04 wrote:
Wiggins will get 2nd overall.
Verbier was still a short mountain, so don't get overly sold on Wiggo yet.
He has done great, but I have a feeling he will have a MAJOR blow-up in upcoming stages coming... It might only be on Ventoux, but I just don't believe he has an hour of effective climbing in him - not yet this year.
OTOH, Sastre almost always gets stronger by every mountain km covered. I think he is still a serious candidate for 2nd spot as I believe him making up meaningful time to everybody but Conta & Andy from here on AND he will beat Andy by 1 to 1½ mins in Annecy TT.
Klödi could probably fight for the 2nd spot too, but only if Astana is ready to let him do it while Lance would be demoted below Klödi as a helper for Contador. NOT LIKELY!
Top 15 pick :
1) Contador
2) Sastre
3) A.Schleck
4) Klöden
5) Nibali
6) Casar (makes up some 5 mins in a successful breakaway on stage 17)
7) Lance
8) Cadel Evans
9) F.Schleck
10) Wiggins
11) Tony Martin
12) Vandevelde
13) Le Mevel
14) Karpets
15) Nocentini |
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| Roman |
Posted on 20-07-2009 15:07
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..would have been.. would have been isn't in cycling.. Roman had bowel problems in last week  .. Kreuziger will beat Nocentini, Hincapie, Le Mevel and Monfort easily, he is better climber than Karpets or Casar too.. And his time trial ability is moore better..
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| Sherpa |
Posted on 20-07-2009 15:10
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SportingNonsense wrote:
That link is from May 2006, it is hardly relevant considering Wiggins will have been at his 'bulkiest' in 2008 for the Olympics.
Immortal said something like this:
Also, to put things a bit in perspecive. As far as I know Bradley now weighs 63kg right?, that gives him a BMI of 17,5. Anything under 18,5 is considered seriously underweight. (Lenardo Piepoli who as issoisso mentioned is just skin and bones is at about 17,6)
Also, considering his unusual height and the obvious fact that he as a cyclist has a lot of muscles adding up to the weight, his BMI is in praciss even lover. He probobly doesn`t have a unnecesairy fat-cell left in his body. (which is very evident in the picture shown earlier in this thread)
If he was bulkier at the Olympics in 2008, how can he be 63 kg, when is weight was more than 76 kg? That means he has lost more than 12 kg and not just 6
Edited by Sherpa on 20-07-2009 15:16
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| Deadpool |
Posted on 20-07-2009 15:11
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Roman wrote:
..would have been.. would have been isn't in cycling.. Roman had bowel problems in last week .. Kreuziger will beat Nocentini, Hincapie, Le Mevel and Monfort easily, he is better climber than Karpets or Casar too.. And his time trial ability is moore better..
Chauvinism FTW! |
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| Stijn_vranken |
Posted on 20-07-2009 15:34
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Roman wrote:
..would have been.. would have been isn't in cycling.. Roman had bowel problems in last week .. Kreuziger will beat Nocentini, Hincapie, Le Mevel and Monfort easily, he is better climber than Karpets or Casar too.. And his time trial ability is moore better..
Monfort will probably get top 20 if not top 15.
He has become Top 15 already in the vuelta
btw Monfort does have a decent TT
prevent hangovers --> stay drunk
pozzato, basically the most stupid cyclist around
RIP WW. Gone but not forgotten
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| KurtinSC |
Posted on 20-07-2009 16:29
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CrueTrue wrote:
Polti wrote:
CrueTrue wrote:
When the testers accept to sit down and wait for 55 minutes instead of go test the riders, you won't get any positives, that's for sure.
hmm that story; i don't like Astana but Grégory Rast has a column in a swiss newspaper in which he wrote that this whole story was total bullshit and blown by German media, which still can't forgive that Armstrong was better than Ullrich. In my opinion, Rast is reliable.
Fact: Testers arrive, they wait for 55 minutes before they test the riders.
Fact: In 55 minutes, you can use products to cover up the doping.
I'm not saying that it (the Astana riders using masking products) happened, but I am saying that it could have happened, and that we won't get any positives as long as the testers screw up that much.
Fact: It was 6 AM on the day of a mountain stage, and the testers (for whatever reason) agreed to wait until 7:00.
I would like to know if anyone was tested at 6:00 AM yesterday... or if anyone is tested at 6:00 AM on any of the upcoming mountain stages and time trials.
It does make a difference if Astana is being singled out with these tests... or if they are just the only team making fuss and all the teams are getting sporadic 6 AM wakeup calls from testers. |
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| doddy13 |
Posted on 20-07-2009 16:51
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Sherpa wrote:
SportingNonsense wrote:
That link is from May 2006, it is hardly relevant considering Wiggins will have been at his 'bulkiest' in 2008 for the Olympics.
Immortal said something like this:
Also, to put things a bit in perspecive. As far as I know Bradley now weighs 63kg right?, that gives him a BMI of 17,5. Anything under 18,5 is considered seriously underweight. (Lenardo Piepoli who as issoisso mentioned is just skin and bones is at about 17,6)
Also, considering his unusual height and the obvious fact that he as a cyclist has a lot of muscles adding up to the weight, his BMI is in praciss even lover. He probobly doesn`t have a unnecesairy fat-cell left in his body. (which is very evident in the picture shown earlier in this thread)
If he was bulkier at the Olympics in 2008, how can he be 63 kg, when is weight was more than 76 kg? That means he has lost more than 12 kg and not just 6
You really don't like Wiggins do you?
There's no point slapping a schleck - Sean Kelly on "Who needs a slap"
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 20-07-2009 16:52
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Don't turn this into an Astana argument - it's not what the discussion is about.
It's about the fact that the testers agree to wait for 55 minutes before testing despite the rules clearly saying that the tests have to be done immediately after the testers have shown up. |
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| kadel |
Posted on 20-07-2009 17:12
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of course they single out riders they suspect are using illegal drugs. They would be stupid not to, wouldn't they? |
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| Roman |
Posted on 20-07-2009 17:20
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Stijn_vranken wrote:
Monfort will probably get top 20 if not top 15.
He has become Top 15 already in the vuelta
btw Monfort does have a decent TT
I know that Monfort is good cyclist - climber and time trialist, but probably only for top 20 this year.. Kreuziger is better so far.. 
Deadpool: No, no
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| KurtinSC |
Posted on 20-07-2009 20:10
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kadel wrote:
of course they single out riders they suspect are using illegal drugs. They would be stupid not to, wouldn't they?
I guess you're for airline security only searching those of Arabic descent too?
I don't know if it's random or not... but it should be. If it's not it raises the possibility that a tester is letting his personal bias impact the results of a race. By choosing to test only one team with a GC threat at an early hour on mountain stages, it's very easy to make an argument that the tester or testing agency is showing a bias against a specific team or rider.
If that's the case, then it puts more doubt into if that group might also be "faking" the results due to that percieved bias.
You HAVE to maintain the appearance of being non biased while doing this sort of thing... otherwise the testing will serve no purpose because anyone caught will appeal based on that bias.
Plus, if the testing isn't random, it will miss those the testers don't suspect who are actually guilty. It's not a good way to go about it, and I'd be shocked if the tour was doing it that way. |
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| niconico |
Posted on 20-07-2009 20:14
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ruben wrote:
Wiggins is probably sure one. And then the 3rd place is between A.Schleck/Sastre/Nibali...etc
You have no reason to believe that Wiggins can take second. As of now he is, unbelievably, the only one who can actually beat Contador. But we don't know anything about how he will do in the third week in a Grand Tour.
Hopefully he will destroy Contador on the time trial.
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| Deadpool |
Posted on 20-07-2009 20:15
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A_Schleck wrote:
ruben wrote:
Wiggins is probably sure one. And then the 3rd place is between A.Schleck/Sastre/Nibali...etc
You have no reason to believe that Wiggins can take second. As of now he is, unbelievably, the only one who can actually beat Contador. But we don't know anything about how he will do in the third week in a Grand Tour.
Hopefully he will destroy Contador on the time trial.
I doubt he will, Contador is a fantastic time-trialist and Wiggins isn't nearly as good for longer tests. |
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| niconico |
Posted on 20-07-2009 20:16
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He was pretty good on the long time trial in the Dauphine in, was it last year?
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| Deadpool |
Posted on 20-07-2009 20:17
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A_Schleck wrote:
He was pretty good on the long time trial in the Dauphine in, was it last year?
I didn't say he wasn't good, I'm saying he isn't as good, and likewise Contador is better in longer time-trials |
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| Guido Mukk |
Posted on 20-07-2009 20:18
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A_Schleck wrote:
ruben wrote:
Wiggins is probably sure one. And then the 3rd place is between A.Schleck/Sastre/Nibali...etc
You have no reason to believe that Wiggins can take second. As of now he is, unbelievably, the only one who can actually beat Contador. But we don't know anything about how he will do in the third week in a Grand Tour.
Hopefully he will destroy Contador on the time trial.
You are way to optimistic..better hope that Wiggins can keep podium place.. |
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| niconico |
Posted on 20-07-2009 20:18
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Well Wiggins is suddenly outclimbing Carlos Sastre, so I'd never say never given his tempo abilities.
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| Guido Mukk |
Posted on 20-07-2009 20:21
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A_Schleck wrote:
Well Wiggins is suddenly outclimbing Carlos Sastre, so I'd never say never given his tempo abilities.
Yeaah and he beat also Menchov..and Armstong (all other Giro guys). |
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