Unpredictability is good as long as it is predictable unpreditability. What i mean with that is: Unlikely results or unpredictable races are good when you could predict that sth might be an option or when it makes sense in hindsight. E.g. Milan San Remo can end up in a mass sprint, a group of puncheurs / climbers getting away on the poggio or a solo rider attacking in the downhill and all of that can be good unpredictability. But when the entire peleton does a casual sunday ride until 1k to go where random positioning is deciding the race like that one terrible MG edition we had, thats bad unpredictability.
I think that is a good definition of desirable unpredictability. Now managers have begun to see the possible range of outcome they can make decisions based on that knowing the race plays out one way maybe the puncheur wins and another way the punchy sprinter wins. What didn't happen and would be bad unpredictability, and I hope would never happen, would be if a 65 hill sprinter with mediocre backs ups won the GC.
knockout wrote:
What i disliked about this edition was mainly not the result but that the puncheurs barely tried to make a difference. They were not riding to make a difference in the final stage but were just cruising along for the most part. (If i had gotten the exact same result after a 10km solo attempt by Lopez or if he tried to follow the attacks in the end but failed, i would still be a bit disappointed but it would have been a lot easier to accept the result.) That was imo the only issue with this race but id say its a "small-ish ai issue of this edition" and not a "profile issue" or sth that needs to be fixed from a calendar POV.
I agree with too. After they catch the break somebody should have attacked immediately and instead the next 10k or so was wasted. I think this is a subtle AI problem that comes up in certain stages, particularly hilly ones, it feels like the peloton gets very passive until the end. Last year in California's hillly stage the race ripped apart and had only favorites left with 40k left and then they all just rode together to the final climb. Very frustrating. We can hope 22 addresses that.
Also, just adding I didn't take any comments as criticism the race. It is a different kind of route so am interested in reactions.
Slightly disappinted with the result. As KO I had hoped for a more selective final stage, but it wasnt meant to be. I'll live with 8th. Just not sure the team will survive the PT with this sort of outcome.
I agree with you guys. It's nice to have these unpredictable races, but within reason. This race IMO was within that. I planned with both Farantakis and Koretzky here as I couldn't really determine the difficulty of the last stage.
What I tend to do when I plan, is to look at past results, and check if the route was similar, to see if something unexpected has happened in the history that we could exploit - or should be aware of when picking strength of domestiques. In particular back when I had winning type riders. Now I basically look for chaos which is our chance to win races
Whoops. Just found out I totally missed this race. So time to catch up
Stage 1 was a classic LPH stage. Flat rated but everyone near the back. Luckily we got Kelderman back in the end, too bad he was the only one and our strong time trialists immediately all lost any GC hope, including Kelderman. Stage 2 was less eventful, luckily, and we all managed to stay in. Hoped to not lose too much time in the TTT then. 25 seconds is not a drama, as long as Kelderman performs in the final hilly stage.
And... he doesn't do shit. 16th in the GC is the only 'positive' for us this race, so I guess for my mental health it was better that I initally missed this race instead of keeping hopes up for three days in a row
Congratulations to all stage and jersey winners, and thank you for the great reports Ulrich
This race was a huge wasted opportunity for my team. The TTT still went very well and we almost even beat Vesuvio. However, only having Gidich remain with such a big favorite's group is very disappointing, when almost my entire team could've kept up on a good day. Mano and Bevin just missed out being in the +49 group.
Thanks for the reports Ulrich and congrats to ISA on a rather surprising victory!
Regarding the discussion above, I think it's a very nicely designed race. The TTT can make a difference and with the 4th stage being relatively selective it is a good combination. I also don't think how it turned out is an issue and it's within the range of what could've been expected.
