Arberg wrote:
Cavendish has won 34 stage victories in TDF. Of course he is the best in a sprint. No luck, he's just faster.
Faster than those present. Can't get beaten by someone who's not there. Not trying to diminish his results. But beating the (2) last pure sprinters doesn't automagically make you the best.
That's why I rate him on about the same level as merlier.
I think the database is in a very good position now and don't expect any big changes for the rest of the season unless someone steps up late season.
In my DB (so far):
83: Pogacar (or 82)
82: Roglic, Bernal, Lopez, S. Yates
81: Carapaz, Caruso, Landa, Uran, Porte, A. Yates, Buchmann, Pinot, Carthy, Kuss
80: Almeida, Chaves, Dumoulin, Vingegaard, Mas, Kruijswijk, Martinez, Thomas, Quintana, Vlasov
other notes:
I would downgrade Campenaerts to TT 78 as he has shown little in the near past
Pogacar needs a skill that he can handle bad weather well, unlike f.e. S. Yates and many others (stage 8)
Aizak- Yes Castroviejo might be worth more than 76 mtn and I actually like 77/75 for him, he's consistently now a fantastic mtn dom for Ineos in GTs
Aurora- Agree that whilst Cavendish might be making history, he's only really beating the best of the rest at the Tour. As for Yates I haven't got PCM21 but from what I've heard the weather aspect has been taken out of the game and if this is the case then that is not good, as this was a great 'characteristic' feature.
As for the stats , we've done nothing drastic and the stats have been kept high as they were with the last DB update meaning there are many riders over 80. Hooligan's ideas have been added like reducing Roglic to 81 mtn but building him into a 'super man' with superb back-ups like a classic's rider, we didn't go crazy with the back-ups but they are HIGH. Pogacar has been built like this as well but as his mtn will be 83 we decided not to go too crazy. Having Roglic at 82 mtn with these crazy back-ups would have him more like an 83 so at an 81 he should feel more like an 82.
The harder work is actually thinking where do all the other 81 and 82 mtn riders fit in an around the Pog and Rog show. As we all know Pogacar has been a world apart at this Tour because most of his rivals have been so out of form. Only Carapaz has ridden as expected and Vingegaard being the huge surprise is the only big mtn increase we've made, we've kind of made him like a Pogacar mk.II but still keeping him below Roglic in that team but ahead of Kuss and Steve K. Tomorrow we'll find out how well he can TT as well.
As for the sprinters Bennett and Ewan will still be the best with riders like Groenewegen being given a chance to prove that they can still do it with the very best. I decided to increase Cavendish to a high sprint/acc to make him one of the best of the rest around the level of Merlier but kept low back-ups compared to other sprinters.
Also you will notice that we are being patient with many riders that haven't performed or crashed often like Groenewgen, Buchmann and Froome who've kept their stats for now but if they keep underperforming will get a decrease soon.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 16-07-2021 22:38
Roglic must not have had 2 less than Pogacar in mountain. It is too much. The biggest difference between them is at time trals, where Pogacar clearly a best.
Arberg wrote:
Roglic must not have had 2 less than Pogacar in mountain. It is too much. The biggest difference between them is at time trals, where Pogacar clearly a best.
It more than likely is going to happen unless other members and DB team members can convince me otherwise Putting Roglic to 82 with a 'classic's riders' attributes is frightening and at 82 could make him better than Pogacar. We don't want Roglic to be the best GT rider in the DB BUT the second or possible equal best with Pogacar.
Admittedly Roglic was more than likely on amazing form coming into this Tour if we use Vingegaard as a benchmark and possibly knowing that Roglic would've been even better. Even with this possibility, I doubt Roglic would've matched Pogacar on stage 8 where Pogacar destroyed the field and imo I doubt Roglic could've matched him.
Pogacar needs to be better than Roglic, but not that much better. Let's also not forget Roglic beat Pogacar in Basque country earlier this year, which included a 28 sec gap in the ITT.
As for the Jumbo pecking order, Vinge definitely the number 2 for now but I don't think Kuss is a worse climber, just worse recovery and less of an allrounder in general.
These are the current stats with Pogacar's stats first and Roglic second. Please comment on any suggested changes on ANY of the stats as these two riders will be the most focused on when the next DB update comes out. Big question though, if Roglic were 82 mtn and all the other stats stayed as they were who would be better between Pogacar and Roglic? Also any other stat suggestions on how to stat them as well are welcome.
Mtn 83/81
Hill 80/81
Cob 65/64
Flat 75/76
Spr 70/71
Acc 76/78
TT 78/79
Pro 77/78
Sta 80/77
Res 77/78
Rec 83/77
Dow 75/75
Figt 82/80
Another good question is how good is Roglic's STA and Rec? Have his bad days in the latter part of GT's been a rec problem or more of the fact that he miscalculated his peak form over a period of time. He changed his preparation for the Tour this year, which as we know was a long period before the Tour without racing. Also how great is his STA? I don't believe that he would've won LBL if not for Alaphilippe's stupid swerve and that race would'be been won by Pogacar or Hirschi imo.
Everyone has different opinions about the top riders and I think they are the easiest to change if people want. I think the DB team does a great job at statting the riders and in the whole, the stats are always accurate. It doesn’t mean you can’t make changes or agree with everything. Tafiolmo said that they’re not going to mark Froome down, but I think I will as he has not shown anything in all the races he’s raced since last year and coming back from his injury and if anything he’s getting worse, but that’s obviously down to personal opinion.
The question I have for the DB team is how do they go about giving stats to the less “obvious” domestiques? For example, someone like Armirail has impressed me a lot over the last couple of years. Again, it’s personal opinions, but I think he’s massively underrated in the DB. When he goes in a break, or when working for Gaudu he’s always strong. He had a couple of very good stages at the Vuelta last year for Gaudu and worked really hard on a few stages in this year’s Tour (especially the St Gaudens one I think it was). He’s also had some decent result when riding for himself, like finishing 3rd in the Mercan’Tour classic a few months back. And he’s half decent in the TT. And there are more riders like that, and I think this is definitely the hardest riders to rate.
As an aside, will there be an update of the DB after the Tour?
Tafiolmo wrote:
Another good question is how good is Roglic's STA and Rec? Have his bad days in the latter part of GT's been a rec problem or more of the fact that he miscalculated his peak form over a period of time. He changed his preparation for the Tour this year, which as we know was a long period before the Tour without racing. Also how great is his STA? I don't believe that he would've won LBL if not for Alaphilippe's stupid swerve and that race would'be been won by Pogacar or Hirschi imo.
Definitely, he also cracked badly at the WC last year and Fleche this year. Pogacar is a much better rider in the classics, while it should be closer in the stage races.
Tafiolmo wrote:
Another good question is how good is Roglic's STA and Rec? Have his bad days in the latter part of GT's been a rec problem or more of the fact that he miscalculated his peak form over a period of time. He changed his preparation for the Tour this year, which as we know was a long period before the Tour without racing. Also how great is his STA? I don't believe that he would've won LBL if not for Alaphilippe's stupid swerve and that race would'be been won by Pogacar or Hirschi imo.
Definitely, he also cracked badly at the WC last year and Fleche this year. Pogacar is a much better rider in the classics, while it should be closer in the stage races.
Exacatly. Why do we even think that Roglic is better in Classics than Pogacar? I think it's opposite, eventually they are equal. Tadej is a beast, superior and absolutely perfect example of all-arounder. Maybe for game it's bad that Pogacar will dominate Ardennes and GTs but IRL it is what it is.
Putting Roglic to 82 with a 'classic's riders' attributes is frightening and at 82 could make him better than Pogacar. We don't want Roglic to be the best GT rider in the DB BUT the second or possible equal best with Pogacar. 
