Nice work by statictics and several ranking categories for one big one.
Not a best thing to see us right after the duo of expected underdogs, but at least we have something to prove to PT managers and i believe we can finish in front of teams like Movistar, Orange or Meiji to escape the relegation zone.
Sometimes i dont understand the mechanics you seem to spot in the PT races, i feel like you are ignoring the scoring potential of biggest stars of cycling, but you are very likely right, with so much more PT experience.
Thanks for the nice work! Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 02-06-2015 06:49
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Nice work by statictics and several ranking categories for one big one.
Not a best thing to see us right after the duo of expected underdogs, but at least we have something to prove to PT managers and i believe we can finish in front of teams like Movistar, Orange or Meiji to escape the relegation zone.
Sometimes i dont understand the mechanics you seem to spot in the PT races, i feel like you are ignoring the scoring potential of biggest stars of cycling, but you are very likely right, with so much more PT experience.
Thanks for the nice work!
Thanks...
The problem, for me, regarding the biggest point scorers is that many of those are GT riders, and while 85MO is a great stat it cannot be compared to 85SPR, 85TT, 85HI or 85COB which would be a killer stat. And while a few (possibly Pluchkin) could infact be doing a top top result, the inflated amount of 83, 84 and 85MO riders has to level out eachothers points - Maybe except for two riders. But which two riders will stand out? Schleck? Pluchkin? Spilak? Madrazo? Phinney? Tenorio? Taaramäe? Alarcon? Amador? One crash and you can be screwed. One bad/unlucky planning and you can be screwed.
So I basically just assumed that all the top top GC riders would level out eachother during the season. I might well be wrong, and if Pluchkin stands out as a top 5 individual rider then I think your team will be safe. But all teams can move up or down 3 places due to luck/bad luck for others.
Some very interesting previews and analysis. I hope the season does turn out as tight as some of your analysis suggests - without a clear dominant team.
The interesting thing will be to see where the top MO riders cancel each other out. If they are spread out across all GTs then it could be the shorter stage races where the huge duels occur. A couple will surely lose out by picking the strongest GT, but others will prosper.
Not sure I agree that 85 MO is worse than 85 other stats, even with more competition. EBH and Burghardt didnt enjoy great success last year despite having the best H/C stat, while Sprints are unpredictable with breakaways, rider blocks and dodgy trains. A high MO does tend to be more reliable.
SportingNonsense wrote:
Some very interesting previews and analysis. I hope the season does turn out as tight as some of your analysis suggests - without a clear dominant team.
The interesting thing will be to see where the top MO riders cancel each other out. If they are spread out across all GTs then it could be the shorter stage races where the huge duels occur. A couple will surely lose out by picking the strongest GT, but others will prosper.
Not sure I agree that 85 MO is worse than 85 other stats, even with more competition. EBH and Burghardt didnt enjoy great success last year despite having the best H/C stat, while Sprints are unpredictable with breakaways, rider blocks and dodgy trains. A high MO does tend to be more reliable.
Agree with you on this point. The long climbs are the ones that create big gaps for high GC success. And a 85 climber will gain more time on a 83 climber usually than a 85 puncheur on a 83 puncheur.
So the top top climbers can survive a weaker time trial stat much better than the top top puncheurs for example.
SportingNonsense wrote:
Some very interesting previews and analysis. I hope the season does turn out as tight as some of your analysis suggests - without a clear dominant team.
The interesting thing will be to see where the top MO riders cancel each other out. If they are spread out across all GTs then it could be the shorter stage races where the huge duels occur. A couple will surely lose out by picking the strongest GT, but others will prosper.
Not sure I agree that 85 MO is worse than 85 other stats, even with more competition. EBH and Burghardt didnt enjoy great success last year despite having the best H/C stat, while Sprints are unpredictable with breakaways, rider blocks and dodgy trains. A high MO does tend to be more reliable.
True. What I meant with high stat is that the HI riders with 83-85 are usually also the ones scoring the best, the sprint thing is difficult because of sprint trains, positioning and such, and I have in fact also tried to level out the stats of those in my preview, with only teams having sprinters of 78 or less getting a very low amount of stars.
Normally those cobblers with 82+ are also the ones getting the best results, and as there are only three/four of those (In the PT) while there are 20 or so in the climbing region. So while the top cobblers/sprinters are probably not scoring better than the top climbers, they are probably going in somewhere in the mix with some of the top climbers not really doing all that well.
Nice to hear that you have so much faith in my team staying away from the relegation zone! 12th/13th will be tough to achieve, but with a good season by Phinney and Van Stayen it is certainly doable. I'm hoping to end up somewhere around that range myself!
SotD wrote:
It will be interesting to see if he will get the support of Duarte whenever he needs it, or if Duarte is chasing his own results, because that could well be the difference between Phinney winning races or not.
Duarte will support Phinney in Vuelta a Espana and in Tour de Suisse, which are the only mountain heavy races Phinney will take part in. Duarte will lead the team certain places, but there will also be a handful of races that we attend without a real GC contender. Although we might lose some points by doing that, it is as you say essential for Phinney to have Duarte with him in the mountains.
I agree with almost everything you wrote about Bacardi, and it's how i see it aswell. While neglecting cobbles was the plan, it might hit us harder than previous years due to the addition of another cobbled race. I don't really mind not having a cobbler as i've had bad experiences with them.
I do regret not getting a better sprinter though, as it was part of my original transfer plan. Unfortunately, most sprinters were already transferred before i even knew what i could spend on them .
I'm late to the party, but very nice work with the statistics, SotD!
Great to come back home and see all the previews up. The stars rankings for my team look spot on, and looking where it places on the total star ranking, it looks obvious that I need Boasson Hagen to deliver a much better season compared to 2014.
As my team looks compared to the others, I'll happily take 7th this season. Anything between the 7th place you're predicting and the 12th place the stars give us looks reasonable. Fingers crossed a fair bit of luck can make us a contender for a top 5 place.
In general I agree on a lot of your ranking predictions, but there are also a couple of teams that will be really interesting to see where ends. I do believe VW - Andritz have a brilliant team this season, and if Claeys proves he's one of the very best puncheurs, I think they will be a top 5 contender due to the depth of leaders. Especially Monsalve in the role as a second leader for stage races looks very, very strong.
And as your stars ranking says, it's difficult to find the winner this season. If Spilak has the amazing season his stats suggest he will have, I believe you'll be right up there on the podium, very close to the win.
In general a well written preview and one that gives a very good overview of the strengths of each team, thumbs up!
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