|
PCM.daily Stat Discussion
|
|
| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 22:36
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
| IP: None |
|
|
| Ollfardh |
Posted on 18-10-2020 18:51
|
World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
|
It's hard to give cobble updates with Paris-Roubaix and a few others missing. Alaphilippe was good on the hills, not really on the pure cobble sections (although he took Stationsberg really well).
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
|
| |
|
|
| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 18-10-2020 20:51
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
Ollfardh wrote:
It's hard to give cobble updates with Paris-Roubaix and a few others missing. Alaphilippe was good on the hills, not really on the pure cobble sections (although he took Stationsberg really well).
With no Paris-Roubaix the 83 cob stat really can't be given out and even then we kind of decided that 82 cob was going to be the max anyway.
Alaphilippe who's hill at 83 is so much higher than everybody else's is probably about a 76 cob max but we'll never know how he would've gone towards the end because of that crash. Overall it was a poor Flanders (almost without a soul for the lack of people) but had Alaphilippe stayed in it would have made the finale with WVA and VDP that more interesting.
|
| |
|
|
| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 18-10-2020 20:59
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
Also we have updated nearly all the flat and other stats to a new maximum of 83/82 but for res we have kept it a max of 81 due to it big influence on play.
Hans- Almeida has been put to 75/74 in TT.
Also interested in hearing the climbing stats for the Giro as we have had a couple of mtn stages now. Remember the Giro is like a b-movie so don't get carried away with too high climbing stats 
Some observations of mine: Almeida looks to be suffering from a rec problem but he has the rest day and we'll see how he goes next week, Fuglsang is suffering from a serious rec problem. Nibali looks past it but he could come good in the final week. Pozzovivo is being hyped up once again, did he have another mechanical today? Finally not really convinced about Kelderman, he just followed the wheel of the impressive Hindley but never attacked to take pink which had he been as strong as thought he would've done.
|
| |
|
|
| Vali |
Posted on 18-10-2020 21:59
|
Domestique
Posts: 735
Joined: 05-07-2011
PCM$: 200.00
|
I don't think that Almeida has a rec problem, he was a lot better on this stage than the 2 previous mountain top finishes in the 1st week. So not sure about his recovery yet, he could obviously still very easily crack in the 3rd week.
But what the hell is going on with Hindley? He was insanely strong. Kelderman was dying in the slipstream on those 5% slopes in the last 5 kms.
Credits to the_hoyle for my avatar. |
| |
|
|
| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 18-10-2020 22:16
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
Vali wrote:
I don't think that Almeida has a rec problem, he was a lot better on this stage than the 2 previous mountain top finishes in the 1st week. So not sure about his recovery yet, he could obviously still very easily crack in the 3rd week.
But what the hell is going on with Hindley? He was insanely strong. Kelderman was dying in the slipstream on those 5% slopes in the last 5 kms.
Yes it's difficult to note how Almeida is and how he will go in the final week and yes again in that Hindley looked better than Kelderman.
|
| |
|
|
| Ho0liGaN |
Posted on 19-10-2020 01:11
|
Junior Rider
Posts: 42
Joined: 30-06-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
Remember that the hill stat is basically used only when doing performances that are in the red zone. Above 85 effort it starts counting, below that it does nothing. Given that fact, and the low amount of CLI stats MVP has compared to both Alaphilipe and WVA. In light of his recent results, going back to national championship where he decimated the entire field and rode 40k solo, doing the same again in the Eneco Tour (or whatever it's called these days) then the next day just barely losing the wheel to the top 6 on the toughest climb in LBL. I currently rate MVP as the 2nd or 3rd on pure hill stats. He won't have the CLI to dominate races like lombardia (where, similar to the WC just barely couldn't follow the better climbers) but will be a contender if they don't pace up those longer climbs.
The two other currently being Hirschi and of course Alaphilipe.
My stats would be CLI/HILL
ALA: 76/83
MVP: 68/82
HIRSCHI: 72/81
WVA: 77/80
Of course there's a lot more riders around these levels. Fuglsang with similar stats to WVA, Mollema as a sleeper pick took yet another top 5 in a monument and has to be in contention. And then we also have the guys who performed strong at the WC.
As for my thoughts on the giro so far: Ganna beasting in the TTs as expected. And I feel justified in proposing to give Fuglsang abysmal REC stats. I know he had a mechanical problem and lost time. But this dude just seems to fall of a cliff once week 2 starts. His relatively good TT results he gets in 1 week races just seem to have disappeared, as well as his abilities to perform in long climbs.
The caliber of riders that are left in this giro is frankly speaking piss poor. We got grandpa nibali who is now clearly past his prime. Got dropped in his prep races by Mollema and ciccone, can't follow Kelderman, gets slapped in the face in the timetrials.
Majka who's been a good domestique for Contador back in the Day is performing similar to him. Bilbao who's well past his top form by now.
That leaves us with the strongest 4 today, hindley, geoghan heart, Kelderman and Almeida. While it's good to see a season where Kelderman hasn't kissed the ground yet and able to ride to his potential, no one ever saw him as the man to rival the likes of a froome in the past or a pogacar or roglic. He's basically a weaker version of Dumoulin. A good timetrialist, and a good climber. He's the guy you want as last guy to help the real leader. In game that would get him to a 78/79 CLI and a 74/75/76 TT (depending on personal preference and max stat used). As for hindley, he's riding very strong, 2nd leader for his team but clearly NOT the leader, I think of him as a Kuss and the tour.
Geoghan heart is showing his talent, developing steadily into what could be one day, a contender for the podium in a GT with stronger opposition. (He might get it this giro, but as I said, the opposition really is piss poor)
Finally Almeida, Young lad having its breakout performance, riding with the power of hope and dreams. Clearly a talented timetrialist, and I would rate him highly. As for pure mountain stats I'd like to wait a bit more to see what ends up happening. We saw Alaphilipe do similar things and then only to never reproduce them.
One last thing, and that's Thomas. He really showed me he's still a top contender. He would've won this giro without breaking a sweat. As we were previously on the fence about his level. I'm more that certain he'd be at least on the level of a Dumoulin.
That's all for now  |
| |
|
|
| Arberg |
Posted on 19-10-2020 13:49
|
Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
|
ALA: 76/83
Fuglsang: 78/81
Hirschi: 74/81
MVP: 70/79
WVA: 75/78
Edited by Arberg on 20-10-2020 12:48
|
| |
|
|
| King_Ric |
Posted on 19-10-2020 20:47
|
Junior Rider
Posts: 44
Joined: 03-07-2019
PCM$: 200.00
|
Hirschi is a decent climber too. He deserves more than 72. |
| |
|
|
| AiZaK |
Posted on 20-10-2020 12:17
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
Alaphilippe 76/83
Fuglsang 78/81
Hirschi 74/81
Van der Poel 69/79
Van Aert 75/80 |
| |
|
|
| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-10-2020 13:24
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
Hooligan- Some good stuff there and we have some similar stat changes for the next update which will most likely come out after La Vuelta but some of it is quite extreme that you have put as well. I have some doubt about the huge differences between the mtn and hill stats. For example Fleche Wallonne is one of the purest hill stat races and therefore these extreme climbing stats can work but on races like Liege and Lombardia this becomes more of an issue as these are competed by two types of rider. 1. The GT rider with his high mtn like Pogacar and the hill climber with medium mtn like Alaphilippe and this formula works to give a balance between these type of riders in these races BUT as he have seen a rider like Hirschi with those extreme stats can easily win FW but I have my doubt that he could win Lombardia or Liege with such a low mtn. Hirschi therefore needs to be closer to Alaphilippe in mtn around 75 because let's face it, had it not been for Alaphilippe's silly swerve he probably would've won Liege and I doubt with just 72 mtn he would be there to contest with the riders that were there in real life with their much higher mtn stats. Overall stats for hill races with their hill, mtn, res and acc combinations are hard to get right, especially since a rider like Alaphilippe is pure acc in these races whereas Fuglsang and Hirschi are more res, so it's a hard balance.
Aizak, Arberg, King Ric-
At the moment I'd go with these but I do think some work needs to be done with both VDP and WVA because with these hill stats and their other stats they're probably winning most races now that they enter
Alaphilippe 76/83
Hirschi 75/82
Fuglsang 78/81
Ulissi 74/81
Cosnefroy 72/81
VDP 68/79
WVA 75/78
|
| |
|
|
| King_Ric |
Posted on 20-10-2020 19:40
|
Junior Rider
Posts: 44
Joined: 03-07-2019
PCM$: 200.00
|
Seems very reasonable. I probably just wouldn't make Ulissi that strong but he is riding well lately. |
| |
|
|
| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-10-2020 21:23
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
King_Ric wrote:
Seems very reasonable. I probably just wouldn't make Ulissi that strong but he is riding well lately.
He's a difficult one and finished third at FW last season behind Alaphilippe and Fuglsang and has been doing better with longer races like Lombardia as well but could be a point less in both mtn and/or hill.
|
| |
|
|
| Jakob8b |
Posted on 21-10-2020 07:31
|
Amateur
Posts: 12
Joined: 15-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Tafiolmo wrote:
He's a difficult one and finished third at FW last season behind Alaphilippe and Fuglsang and has been doing better with longer races like Lombardia as well but could be a point less in both mtn and/or hill.
74/81 seems reasonable to me, if you balance it with low RES and STA. |
| |
|
|
| AiZaK |
Posted on 21-10-2020 10:17
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
In my opinion Schachmann deserves 81, Ulissi 80 |
| |
|
|
| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 21-10-2020 10:30
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
Schachmann actually has 81 hill in the stats stretch and I'll put everyone here with a hill of 80 or more plus the two special riders: Also these stats need riders like Ulissi, Schachmann and Cosnefroy to have good acc and res to make them competitive for races like Liege because of their much lower mtn stat than the others.
Alaphilippe 76/83
Hirschi 75/82
Fuglsang 78/81
Schachmann 74/81
Ulissi 74/81
Cosnefroy 72/81
Bennett 78/80
Mollema 78/80
Valverde 78/80
Woods 78/80
Formolo 77/80
Kwiatkowski 74/80
VDP 68/79
WVA 75/78
|
| |
|
|
| AiZaK |
Posted on 21-10-2020 10:57
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
In my opinion I would change:
- George Bennet 78/79 (I know his great results in Lombardia and Piamonte)
- Formolo 77/79
- Kwiatkowski 74/79
- Ulissi 74/80
- Cosnefroy 72/80 |
| |
|
|
| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 21-10-2020 13:42
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
AiZaK wrote:
In my opinion I would change:
- George Bennet 78/79 (I know his great results in Lombardia and Piamonte)
- Formolo 77/79
- Kwiatkowski 74/79
- Ulissi 74/80
- Cosnefroy 72/80
By lowering these riders it gives them a lesser advantage in these races than against some of the bigger GT riders like Roglic, Bernal, Pogacar and Pinot. Kwitakowski though would work with less as he has high res and flat stats to help compensate.
|
| |
|
|
| Forever the Best |
Posted on 22-10-2020 22:16
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3803
Joined: 27-06-2014
PCM$: 400.00
|
Domen Novak worked nicely for Bilbao at Piancavallo and today. Today he still managed to finish 12th himself.
Ben Swift is 19th in the GC after 18 stages, he was also 16th today ( he was in the break but they got caught early so still impressive )
Geoghegan Hart and Hindley had another amazing climbing performance. The 2 strongest climbers of the Giro without doubt.
Dennis did his best performance ever on Stelvio, putting 5.58 W/Kg for 71:08 minutes.
Pernsteiner was 9th today and is 11th on GC.
Ganna won stage 5 and finished 23rd today ( ( he was in the break but they got caught early so still impressive )
Pello Bilbao was 3rd today.
I think these are all riders that deserve a MO stat upgrade.
The user formerly known as 'The Schleck Fan'
Gracias Alberto.
|
| |
|
|
| purepasd |
Posted on 23-10-2020 12:14
|
Domestique
Posts: 541
Joined: 23-01-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
Given the low quality of the competition in this giro, I believe the performances of Bilbao, Pernsteiner and Dennis match their current stats. The other ones that you mentioned seem reasonable to upgrade, especially Novak and Hindley. |
| |
|
|
| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 23-10-2020 13:32
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
As Purespasd has mentioned this is a really low quality GT the weakest I've probably ever seen and no rider really is worth much more than 77 or 78. Bilbao is already a 79 mtn stat and had he not ridden the Tour would be the best rider here. Fuglsang we have at a low rec anyway and Nibali is looking past it, despite finishing second last year. This really is a GT of 76, 77 and 78 climbers. Kelderman is actually a weak 78 and Geoghegan-Hart is a better 78, Almeida about a 77 with good TT and it's only really Hindley that has surprised everybody and looks the strongest and better than Kelderman (despite the fact he can't TT)
Other riders like Novak have been noted and better back-ups for riders like Dennis and Ganna have been done. ,
|
| |
|
