Introduction
The return of two famous riders in this centenary Tour of Italy.
van Basso and Lance Armstrong this year trying to return to the highest level.
Before they stopped racing in 2005 and 2006, they were the two best grand tour racers. In 2006, Ivan Basso won the Giro, flying with 440 watts of average climbing power
He had, in particular, an astonishing performance at the Monte Bondone with 460 watts average for 45 minutes, better than Miguel Indurain in La Plagne in 1995.
Before his first retirement, Lance Armstrong won for the seventh time the Tour de France in 2005 with 425 watts of average power standard. [and regular performances at 450 watts]
Ivan Basso also presents his physiological data on the site
www.mapeisport.it.
Shortly before the Giro, he developed 412 watts in the Giro del Trentino during the ascent of Alpe di Pampeago.
For Lance Armstrong, this is an interesting challenge and a great unknown. During his mini retirement, he kept in shape by participating in marathons and mountain bike racing.
Over the past two years, Alberto Contador took over as the best specialist in stage races in three weeks.
He won three major national tours, but with a much inferior level of performance in the mountains: 425 watts average (435 maximum) in the Tour de France in 2007 and 410 watts average (425 maximum) in the Giro 2008.
Contador did not defend Giro title. On the contrary, Carlos Sastre, Denis Menchov and Levi Leipheimer are the ones facing the two "ghosts from the past".
Stage 4: PADOVA-SAN MARTINO DI CASTROZZA
The first serious confrontation between the favorites of the race took place at the end of the fourth stage on the climb to San Martino di Castrozza.
During the stage, the first pass of the Giro, the Croce d'Aune, was been climbed together by the pack at 393 watts average.
It is a relatively high value that has not really cracked the peloton with 80 riders still in the peloton at the top of the first pass.
Voigt, De Bonis and Bellotti started the rise to San Martino with a lead reduced to 2'10 "on the pack of favorites. Voigt dropped his latest escape companions, but would be caught and passed by the pack at 2 km from the arrival.
Several teams (LPR and Acqua & Sapone) take turns on the final climb's modest 6% slope. At the end of the climb, Basso of the Liquigas team took the race in hand. Soler attacked twice, but he was cauht by Di Luca in the last fifty meters.
Danilo Di Luca won the stage in a sprint of 30 riders. Lance Armstrong was dropped in the last kilometer and conceded 15 seconds. 33 riders came to the top of San Martino at a 430 watts average.
This calculated power is a valid one [by "valid" they mean it's not abnormal for a group this large], because starting from 25 km / h, riders placed in the middle of the group can benefit from drafting wheels.
We thus had 33 riders who have developed more than 400 watts for 26 minutes. This shows that the overall level is high and conforms to recent years. For a first contact with the mountains, Lance Armstrong has been very resilient.
Croce d'aune
Peloton: 393w
Voigt+Bellotti+De Bonis: 373w
San Martino di Castrozza
Peloton: 430w
Armstrong: 425w
Stage 5: SAN MARTINO DI CASTROZZA-ALPE DI SIUSI
The riders of the Tour of Italy must this time climb at the end of the stage the long climb to the Alpe di Siusi. The rise of 24.9 km was relatively easy until 7km from the finish.
Breakaways of the day Voeckler, Serpa, Ochoa, Visconti, Pietropoli had 1 minute advantage on the peloton at 15kms to go. In front of the peloton, the Liquigas team set a fast pace on a rapid pace. The advance of the escapees rapidly decreased. Bunch packed (
) at 10 km from the finish.
A peloton of about 80 riders arrived together at the last part of the climb to the Alpe of Siusi. Cheula attacked, then was joined by Devenyns but took only 5 seconds and the peloton came back to them quickly enough.
The Liquigas team powered on at 410watts for the first mile. Armstrong was dropped at 6.5 km from the summit. A little further forward, Garzelli and Cunego were dropped from the pink jersey group.
The top group contained only 25 riders at 5 km from the summit. It was still led by Szmyd, teammate of Basso. The latter then took over and accelerated gradually. He maintained an average power of 430 watts. Only 7 riders could follow: Di Luca, Leipheimer, Horner, pink jersey Lovkvist, Menchov, Sastre and Arroyo.
Arroyo was distanced, Lovkvist yielded but then came back. Basso slowed somewhat in the last kilometer, Rogers returned and Menchov won the sprint.
The first six of the stage, Menchov, Di Luca, Lovkvist, Basso, Leipheimer and Horner have developed an average power of 425 watts for about a little over 26 minutes.
The stage was short (125 km) but with a very long final climb and a partial recovery in the middle.
Basso appears less strong than in 2006. We believe his real power to be 417 watts (69 kg). Armstrong was dropped and achieved a worse climb than the previous day. With 375 watts of average, he was 80 watts from his maximum threshold (between 2000 and 2005 at the Tour de France).
Alpe di Siusi
Menchov, Di Luca: 425w
Lovkvist, Basso: 424w
Leipheimer, Horner: 423w
Sastre: 420w
Arroyo, Rogers, Kessiakoff: 419w
ten Dam: 418w
Soler: 412w
Pellizotti, Simoni: 411w
Cunego: 381w
Armstrong: 377w
Stages 6 and 8:
The analysis is boring. all you need to know is that Garzelli's failed attack in stage 6 (not 8) was insanely powerful for a solo man.
Stage 10: CUNEO-PINEROLLO
The only climb done at speed is too short (under 20 mins) for conclusions to be drawn.
Stage 12 ITT
Comparisons to usual climbing performances cannot be drawn easily due to the riders using time trial equipment to improve performance. Still, the strongly prevalent idea is that Menchov and Leipheimer's performances were quite superhuman.
Conclusion (AKA the important part. If you skip all else, read this)
What is the trend after 12 stages? Menchov, Leipheimer and Di Luca appear in the mountains to be just above the others. Menchov has just completed perhaps his finest achievement as a cyclist in his absolute show in the Cinque Terre time trial with a climb of 21 minutes at almost 470 watts (again, time trial equipment used).
Leipheimer is in a very good year, better than the Tour de France 2007 and Di Luca has regained his form of the Giro 2007. However, the road to Rome is still long, nothing says that the trend will continue.
Sastre is currently at the same level as the Tour de France 2008. Garzelli was a great animator [of the race]. He has not won a stage but currently enjoys fabulous fitness.
Basso does not have the same potential as at the Giro and the Tour in 2006 and 2005. It would be about 30 watts above what he's shown this year.
After a period of 3 seasons and a recent fracture of the clavicle, Armstrong was already a surprise. He's improves over time. The american probably does not have the same weight as when he won the Tour.
His relative climbing power is 415 watts maximum, or 40 watts less than in 2004.
To be among the favorites of the Tour de France, he must in a month and a half lose a few kilograms and improve 20 or 30 watts (absolute) power.
Armstrong is able to improve this way in such short a time, as he has already proved in the past.
Other riders have already been in bad shape in the Tour of Italy prior to shinin in the Tour de France (Greg LeMond, Jan Ullrich ...).
