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2014 Tour Down Under (21 to 26 January)
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| Blueprint |
Posted on 22-01-2014 08:10
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Domestique
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Malkael wrote:
I've heard that Ulissi wants to target Milan - San Remo as one of his goals this year. Whether that is a smart decision is another matter.
The new route might be good for him and Lampre can have a very strong team there with for example Ulissi, Costa, Cunego, Pozzato, Modolo, Cimolai, Favilli and Niemiec. |
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| depeche92 |
Posted on 22-01-2014 08:23
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Domestique
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Ulissi can't handle 200+ km races. Milan-San Remo is almost 300... |
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| Selwink |
Posted on 22-01-2014 08:27
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No?
Giro 2011, stage 16: 230kms
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 22-01-2014 08:28
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World Champion
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Blueprint wrote:
Malkael wrote:
I've heard that Ulissi wants to target Milan - San Remo as one of his goals this year. Whether that is a smart decision is another matter.
The new route might be good for him and Lampre can have a very strong team there with for example Ulissi, Costa, Cunego, Pozzato, Modolo, Cimolai, Favilli and Niemiec.
While i would still put above the Sagan, Gatto, Moser, Marcato,Caruso, de Marchi, Ratto, Mohoric lineup.
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| depeche92 |
Posted on 22-01-2014 08:32
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Domestique
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Ok, but you can not compare classics to giro/tour/vuelta stages... |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 22-01-2014 08:37
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World Champion
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Also that one was from break right? And still 230kms, not 300. He can have a chance, but top5 is impossible imo...
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| CountArach |
Posted on 22-01-2014 08:51
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depeche92 wrote:
Ulissi can't handle 200+ km races. Milan-San Remo is almost 300...
Most of his classics wins at the end of last year were around 200km and he finished inside the top 30 in Lombardia. I think he will surprise people with his ability over the greater distance this year. He is a bit older so has a bit more in his legs. He also hasn't really tried more than 200km many times particularly as team leader.
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| Strydz |
Posted on 22-01-2014 08:56
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Saying Ulissi can't handle the distance of Milan-San Remo at this stage is a bit of a harsh call, he has been on a solid upwards path the last few seasons so this season is the time to have a crack at a race like that. He really hasn't had the chace to show what he can do in a race such as San Remo yet so give the guy a chance.
Great win today and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him on the podium come the end of the TDU
Hells 500 Crew and 6 x Everester
Don Rd Launching Place
Melbourne Hill Rd Warrandyte
Colby Drive Belgrave South
William Rd The Patch
David Hill Rd Monbulk
Lakeside Drive Emerald
https://www.everesting.cc/hall-of-fame/ |
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| ianrussell |
Posted on 22-01-2014 09:16
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Classics Specialist
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Looking forward to Ulissi versus Gerrans up Willunga not to mention what Evans, Porte, Gesink or a whole handful of others might be capable of.
Just one complaint, can't they run this race under 150km of floodlights at 3am local time just so I can watch it live at a convenient time - something to improve for next year |
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 22-01-2014 09:37
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Selwink wrote:
No?
Giro 2011, stage 16: 230kms
Putting one result doesn't change anything, EBH got 2nd at Worlds and won long stage at Giro, so what.
The difference is, when tempo is solid throughout he won't be there at the end. Worlds in 2012, nothing happened until final lap and he could do it. Same with Ulissi in last year, what happen this year we don't know yet
Edited by Alakagom on 22-01-2014 09:38
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| Kalach |
Posted on 22-01-2014 13:18
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I would say Evans is somehow back.. Doesnt matter that he is 36...! He will beat Gerrans as well as Porte in stage 5 |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 11:31
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| Malkael |
Posted on 22-01-2014 15:55
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Stage 3 - Norwood to Campbelltown (145 KM)
(Click to Enlarge)
With Simon Gerrans stretching his lead in the General Classification over everyone but Diego Ulissi, Stage Three of the 2014 Tour Down Under could be a case of now or never for several cyclists still dreaming of wearing the Ochre Jersey. With conventional wisdom dictating that Corkscrew Hill will be the final opportunity for someone to gain time on Gerrans before Willunga Hill.
The inclusion of two intermediate sprint points means there will once again be a total of six bonus seconds up for grabs. A daring team could attempt to close the time gap to Simon Gerrans in the General Classification by shackling the breakaway, however, doing so would be a risky strategy liable to actually improve Gerrans' buffer.
(Click to Enlarge)
After successfully defending his King of the Mountains jersey on a countback, Adam Hansen and Lotto – Belisol will be keen to claim some points at the Category 1 “KoM” point located atop Corkscrew Hill. However, the Queenslander could face stiff competition from compatriot William Clarke, of Drapac Pro Cycling, and the General Classification battle that could unfold.
Category 1 - "The Corkscrew" (2.5 KM @ 9%)
(Click to Enlarge)
Measuring 2.5 kilometres in length with an average gradient of 9%, reaching maximum gradients of 14.6%, Corkscrew Hill should cause several splits in the peloton. The emphasis will be on the General Classification contenders to be to the fore of the peloton, where they can react to and neutralise the attacks of their rivals.
After the summit of Corkscrew Hill there will be a 7.4 kilometre descent in to Stage Three's finish in Campbelltown. The narrow and snaking nature of Montacute Road may allow a brave and proficient descender to maintain or extend a time gap over less proficient descenders after the summit of Corkscrew Hill.
(Click to Enlarge)
When the peloton reach the outskirts of Adelaide the road begins to straighten out and lend itself well to a straight line sprint contest. Which should suit those with a high top speed due to the descending nature of the road. However, given the sprinters failed to contest a similar stage finish last year, the stage victory should be claimed by someone with a strong sprint very selective groups.
Favourites, Contenders and the Joker
Last year Team Sky's Geraint Thomas claimed the stage victory after outsprinting George Bennet and Ben Hermans of Radioshack – Leopard and Javier Moreno of Team Movistar to the line, with an onrushing peloton close in arrears. With the Welshman currently ahead of Richie Porte in the General Classification, it will be interesting to see how the British outfit play their cards.
Simon Gerrans should once again be in contention for the stage victory, in the interests of protecting his Ochre Jersey. The Victorian has proven time and again he has a superb sprint from selective groups and must once again be considered a strong favourite. Ideally, Gerrans would prefer a larger buffer over Diego Ulissi and Cadel Evans approaching a potentially decisive showdown on Willunga Hill.
Both Lampre – Merida's Diego Ulissi and BMC's Cadel Evans could be massive threats to Simon Gerran's Ochre Jersey today. Evans competitive spirit, never say die attitude, and well honed descending skills could serve him well at Corkscrew Hill. While Diego Ulissi's acceleration could prove problematic for his rivals during the ascent of Corkscrew Hill or a small bunch sprint.
Robert Gesink of Team Belkin, Maxime Bouet of AG2R Le Mondiale and Simon Geschke of Giant – Shimano could also cause Orica – GreenEDGE some headaches. Any sort of a time gap by the finishing line and the time bonuses on offer to the first three finishers could see any, or all, of the trio move within range of one tiny mistake costing Simon Gerrans the overall race victory.
My joker for the stage victory is Lieuwe Westra of Team Astana, who has been lurking there or there-about just outside the top 10 General Classification placings. The Dutchman would be a dangerous cyclist to allow free over Corkscrew Hill, where his time trial abilities could come useful in a race against the peloton to the line.
Someone must be doomed to fail miserably during Stage 3, for this preview (excluding this epilogue) comes to exactly 666 words.
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| LeaNzinga |
Posted on 22-01-2014 16:17
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i like your detailed presentations Malkael
expecting Porte and Gesink to do something on this stage, but Gerrans is once again favorite for me, if Gavazzi is placed in front after the last hill he got to be one of the outsiders 
> AG2R La Mondiale < >Havre Athletic Club< >Jean-Christophe Peraud<
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| Selwink |
Posted on 22-01-2014 16:26
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Gerrans didn't win this last year, due to a bad shape early in the race. He recovered on the Old Willunga Hill. I think he'll give some space here in the sprint, to save a little. Gasparotto will win I think.
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 22-01-2014 16:31
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Selwink wrote:
Gerrans didn't win this last year, due to a bad shape early in the race. He recovered on the Old Willunga Hill. I think he'll give some space here in the sprint, to save a little. Gasparotto will win I think.
How you come to that conclusion? He shown nothing past two days. Gavazzi is much more likely to be Astana's option here.
Edited by Alakagom on 22-01-2014 16:32
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| Selwink |
Posted on 22-01-2014 16:36
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Grand Tour Champion
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Whoops, actually meant Gavazzi there...
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| Malkael |
Posted on 22-01-2014 17:01
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Sprinter
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Going to have to put my hands up and give credit to Gavazzi if he claims the stage victory. I was considering including him but erred on the side of caution when trying to evalute how well I thought he might cope with the final ~10 kilometres of the stage.
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| MartijnVDD |
Posted on 22-01-2014 19:34
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Breakaway Specialist
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Exit Rojas.
He broke the scaphoid bone in his wrist. |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 22-01-2014 23:11
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Tour de France Champion
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Just watched the last kilometer cuz I read that Ulissi won. Great for him, he's one damn fine rider. New Lampre jerseys look good btw.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 22-01-2014 23:43
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Tour de France Champion
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Looking forward to another nice battle on stage 3  |
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