|
PCMdaily DB Stat Discussion
|
| Cossack |
Posted on 02-09-2014 12:27
|
Domestique
Posts: 582
Joined: 16-07-2011
PCM$: 200.00
|
matt17br wrote:
Cossack wrote:
Dancycling wrote:
2. Nibali is the only of the big four mountain guys who has ever done okay at the Ardennes or any hilly classic. He should be better than the others at hills whilst Contador is next as he performs the best in hilly stages. Nibali: 79 Contador: 79 with lower stamina, Froome: 78 and Quintana 77.
Nibali only successful of them in Ardennes, orly? https://cqranking....ceid=17137
Also Contador was 11th in Fleche 2011 and 9th in Liege 2010.
You can not take results of 2010 or 2011 really in consideration for a 2014 db I think that Contador and Nibali should anyway be on the same level on HI.
I know that, I jsut wanted to show a proof that Nibali isn't the only top GC rider (bar Valverde and Rodriguez) who in the past showed some good form in Ardennes. The point is just that it depends whether Nibali or Contador actually target those races or not.
|
| |
|
|
| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 01:05
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
| IP: None |
|
|
| matt17br |
Posted on 03-09-2014 09:41
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
Tvetcov definitely deserves 71 in TT and 70 in PRL. |
| |
|
|
| silent_control |
Posted on 03-09-2014 10:24
|
Under 23
Posts: 66
Joined: 28-06-2014
PCM$: 200.00
|
@matt17br: I think that you are right. One of the Eurosport commentators from my country (who is a former cyclist), who knows Tvetcov, said that he usually does well in stage races only because of his TT. (There was a little discussion among the commentators regarding the riders from Romania who should be sent to the World Championships, because the places for Romania are a bit limited. The commentator who said that he's good in TT was implying that it is weird that Oleg Berdos and Tvetcov are preferred over Andrei Nechita (who's also the national champion) and that maybe it has something to do with the fact that they recently got the Romanian license (they are from the Republic of Moldova). Then he said that Tvetcov is better than Nechita only because of his TT.)
When I checked the EP, I was surprised to see that he has 70 mountain; I was expecting him to have 70 TT and lower mountain 
Edited by silent_control on 03-09-2014 10:30
|
| |
|
|
| matt17br |
Posted on 03-09-2014 10:36
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
silent_control wrote:
@matt17br: I think that you are right. One of the Eurosport commentators from my country (who is a former cyclist), who knows Tvetcov, said that he usually does well in stage races only because of his TT. (There was a little discussion among the commentators regarding the riders from Romania who should be sent to the World Championships, because the places for Romania are a bit limited. The commentator who said that he's good in TT was implying that it is weird that Oleg Berdos and Tvetcov are preferred over Andrei Nechita (who's also the national champion) and that maybe it has something to do with the fact that they recently got the Romanian license (they are from the Republic of Moldova). Then he said that Tvetcov is better than Nechita only because of his TT.)
When I checked the EP, I was surprised to see that he has 70 mountain; I was expecting him to have 70 TT and lower mountain
He was great at USA Pro Challenge on the Mountains and he was 3rd if I remember correctly in a hilly TT.
Anyway, if I were the Romanian ct, I'd send Grosu and Tvetcov. There aren't better riders in Romania. Grosu had a lot of wins and he defeated Nechita in nearly all the races he took part.
Maybe the discussion is on the 2nd rider. Berdos and Grosu would be in discussion for me, as Berdos is a good puncher and the Ponferrada's race doesn't suit for Grosu. So I'd send anyway Berdos and Tvetcov. I think that Romaninan ct's right.
For the TT, as I guess there's only a spot for Romania, there's no way to not sending Tvetcov as this year's route is perfect for him and he could really take a top-20.
Edited by matt17br on 03-09-2014 10:39
|
| |
|
|
| matt17br |
Posted on 03-09-2014 12:47
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
Overall upgrade for Ryan Mullen of An Post - Chain Reaction with 6 PO and po 6/7 (but I'd like 7 more) for Gougeard?
-3 MO & HI Vanotti, he isn' a climber at all, +4 FL for him.
Uran +4/5 FL, Serry +2 TT
Luis Mas from Caja Rural overall upgrade, like 71 MO etc..
Samu Sanchez +1 TT
Edited by matt17br on 03-09-2014 13:05
|
| |
|
|
| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-09-2014 13:43
|
World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
|
How are you guys rating Tim Wellens? I find it hard to quote an allrouder without making him too strong. He's obviously a puncheur, but has good TT results, isn't slow, takes cobbles decently and climbs good enough.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
|
| |
|
|
| matt17br |
Posted on 03-09-2014 13:43
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
Ollfardh wrote:
How are you guys rating Tim Wellens? I find it hard to quote an allrouder without making him too strong. He's obviously a puncheur, but has good TT results, isn't slow, takes cobbles decently and climbs good enough.
I only wanted to update his Hill stat: Maybe 76. |
| |
|
|
| gotlandrules |
Posted on 03-09-2014 16:31
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1358
Joined: 07-05-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Ppl still went Majka on the same MO stat as Aru? Thats just wrong... |
| |
|
|
| matt17br |
Posted on 03-09-2014 16:52
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
gotlandrules wrote:
Ppl still went Majka on the same MO stat as Aru? Thats just wrong...
No, it's quite right, infact he has lower backup stats. And he was amazing at le tour.
Anyway: Barguil too underrated +1 MO +1 HI
Sicard +3 MO +3 HI
Anacona +2 MO +2 HI
Serry +3 MO
Navarro +1 MO
Pardilla +1 MO
Gorka Izagirre +2 MO
Teunissen 68 MO (+8) +2 FL 68 TT (+6)
van der lijke +9 TT (70) +7 PRL (71)
Spoiler Petacchi -1 SP & ACC
Pelucchi +1 SP -1 ACC
Markus -1 SP -1 ACC
Dehaes -1 SP & ACC
Valverde (yeah, didn't have the same shape of a time in sprints) SO -1/2 SP
Grosu +2 SP & +3 ACC (really you must watch one of his sprints, he his PURE power)
Modolo +1 SP
Moreno Moser +3 SP (he is quite fast)
Geraint Thomas +1/2 SP
Vanmarcke -1 SP
Navardauskas -1 SP +2 ACC (76-76)
Boonen -1 SP
Vangenechten +1 SP
Gaurdini +1 SP
Mclay +2 SP & ACC
Daniel Hoelgaard +1 SP
De Buyst overall upgrade (mainly focused on SP guy)
FL:69
SP:70
ACC:71
END:69
RES:68
REC:66
HIL:67
PO:5/6
____________________________________________________________________
Horner -1 MO and backup stats downgrade
Fuglsang -1 MO
Kreuziger -1 MO
Betancur/Costa +1 MO (Costa more likely a "77.5", but with his backup stats then it could suit)
Van Garderen +1 MO with lower backup stats
Nieve +1 MO with low backup stats
Luis Mas from Caja Rural overall upgrade, like 71 MO etc..
Peraud -1 MO (This is a crucial stat, I think that Peraud did very good at the Tour, but it was his only podium in a GT... He is now the 6th best GT rider, I'd better put him on 79 with higher backup stats)
Miguel Angel Lopez +2/3 MO
Zoidl -1 MO
Anyway: Barguil too underrated +1 MO +1 HI
Sicard +3 MO +3 HI
Anacona +2 MO +2 HI
Serry +3 MO
Navarro +1 MO
Pardilla +1 MO
Gorka Izagirre +2 MO
Teunissen 68 MO (+8) +2 FL 68 TT (+6)
-3 MO & HI Vanotti, he isn' a climber at all, +4 FL for him.
_________________________________________________________
Nibali +1 DO (minor update)
Stybar +2 DO (minor update)
Martin +5-6 DO (minor update)
_________________________________________________________
Turgot -1 COB
Vincent Jerome -1 COB
Oss-Devolder-Bozic +1 COB
Gilbert -1/2 COB (only because he doesn't race Cobbles classics, so with 75 could compete in let's say Harelbeke and be top 10)
Danny Van Poppel +5 COB
Senechal +2 COB
Van Keirsbulck +1 COB
Fuglsang +1 COB (Same as Nibali)
Skujins +1 COB
Groenewegen +1/2 COB
Haussler -1 COB
Roelandts -1 COB (Overrated guy in every db, his only really good result on the COBBLES was 3rd at RVV)
Wellens +6 COB (70), 64 is a bit low for this guy who proved that he can resist onto nearly every terrain.
_________________________________________________________
Froome -1 TT
Dumoulin +1 TT
Van Garderen is more likely a 77.49, so -1 TT
Dennis +1 TT
Dowsett +1 TT
Tvetcov +3 TT +3/4 FL (you said that you updated him, but.. no)
Degand +4 TT & PRL
van der lijke +9 TT (70) +7 PRL (71)
Uran +4/5 FL, Serry +2 TT
Samu Sanchez +1 TT
Wellens +2 TT
_________________________________________________________
Cancellara -1 PRL
Martin +1 PRL
Dumoulin +1 PRL
Malori -1 PRL
Phinney -1 PRL (I know he did nothing this year, but he NEVER done nothing in PRL, mainly good in long TTs)
Kwiatky +1 PRL
Thomas & Dowsett -1 PRL
Froome +1 PRL
Danny van Poppel +1 PRL
Tvetcov +4 PRL
Degand +4 PRL
Formolo +3 PRL
Cattaneo +3 PRL
________________________________________________________
Daniel Moreno -1 HIL
Giampaolo Caruso +1 HIL
Majka +1 HIL
Gallopin +1/2 HIL (most likely 2)
Wellens +1/2 HIL (Most likely 2)
Van Keirsbulck +2/3 HIL
Hofland +2 HIL, he's very underrated.
Magnus Cort +1 HIL
Zoidl -1 HIL
Miguel Angel Lopez +4/5 HIL
Roelandts -1 HIL
Alafaci +4/5 HIL, he is a quite good puncher, too.
Tony Martin -2 HIL with 75 he would have won TDS
Aru +1 HIL (77 is worth)
Pasqualon +2 HIL, he is a good puncher
Overall upgrade for Andrea Fedi:
FL:71
SP:69
END:72
RES:70
REC:68
HIL:72
PO:6
Davidenok overall update (underrated in the db):
FL:69
MO:70/71
TT and PR:65-66
ACC:71
END:70
RES:66
REC:71/72
HI:72
PO:7
________________________________________________________
Some rec suggestions as well:
Kittel has too high REC: Better put him to 80 REC, so -2 REC
Cav -1 REC
Uran -1 REC
Greipel -1 REC
Kristoff, crucial update +3/4 REC, because he's better in the 3rd week
________________________________________________________
And why not some Potentials suggestions?!
Wellens 7 (biggest missing from the 7 po list)
Kudus 7 (tough one, but he's very young and he has already got some great results)
Grosu 7
Teunissen 7 (one of the best young guns for the cobbles classics)
Groenewegen 7 (same as above, bit less)
Alaphilippe 7
De Buyst 5
Davidenok 7 (+ overall upgrade)
Ruffoni 6 (tough one)
Daniel & Markus Hoelgaard 6
Mclay 6
Haig 6
Felline 6
Hugh Carthy 7
Muhlberger 7
Herklotz 7
Vervaeke 7
Sicard 6 (I know it is weird, but I would like to give a possibilit to this guy)
Gougeard 7
Mullen 6 + Great overall upgrade
________________________________________________________
Disclaimer:
All those stats are very subjective!
The post is updated constantly, every time I want to suggest something.
Edited by matt17br on 06-09-2014 09:19
|
| |
|
|
| TankNL |
Posted on 03-09-2014 18:06
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
matt17br wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
How are you guys rating Tim Wellens? I find it hard to quote an allrouder without making him too strong. He's obviously a puncheur, but has good TT results, isn't slow, takes cobbles decently and climbs good enough.
I only wanted to update his Hill stat: Maybe 76.
again based on calculated stats from actual results
| cyclist_id | CyclistName | FLA | MOU | HIL | TT | PRO | COB | SPR | ACC | DWN | FTR | STA | RES | REC | POP | | 16722 | WELLENS Tim | 72 | 71 | 76 | 69 | 69 | 56 | 69 | 70 | 78 | 75 | 74 | 76 | 71 | 79 |
|
| |
|
|
| matt17br |
Posted on 03-09-2014 18:39
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
TankNL wrote:
matt17br wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
How are you guys rating Tim Wellens? I find it hard to quote an allrouder without making him too strong. He's obviously a puncheur, but has good TT results, isn't slow, takes cobbles decently and climbs good enough.
I only wanted to update his Hill stat: Maybe 76.
again based on calculated stats from actual results
| cyclist_id | CyclistName | FLA | MOU | HIL | TT | PRO | COB | SPR | ACC | DWN | FTR | STA | RES | REC | POP | | 16722 | WELLENS Tim | 72 | 71 | 76 | 69 | 69 | 56 | 69 | 70 | 78 | 75 | 74 | 76 | 71 | 79 |
I'm always right 
Anyway, you're great, you developed a very reliable system
Edited by matt17br on 03-09-2014 18:40
|
| |
|
|
| TankNL |
Posted on 03-09-2014 19:29
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
For those who are interested, posted a link to the excel file with the calculations. Including a sheet with the stat changes due to the Vuelta.
link to the post in the forum topic;
https://pcmdaily.c...ost_971007
Edited by TankNL on 03-09-2014 19:29
|
| |
|
|
| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-09-2014 19:38
|
World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
|
I'd rate his TT a bit highet, but otherwise it seems pretty accurate, nice work with developping that tool!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
|
| |
|
|
| depeche92 |
Posted on 03-09-2014 20:16
|
Domestique
Posts: 489
Joined: 24-08-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
Not really accurate, his MOU should be much better than 71
Overall those calculated stats are not good. There are too many variables in a cycling race and final results don't say everything.
Maybe they can be used as a starting point in building db, but If you still have to modify almost every rider what's the point? |
| |
|
|
| alex valceanu |
Posted on 03-09-2014 21:41
|
Domestique
Posts: 486
Joined: 04-07-2011
PCM$: 200.00
|
Stuyven i think deserves an upgrade .
|
| |
|
|
| MartijnVDD |
Posted on 03-09-2014 22:44
|
Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 801
Joined: 26-06-2012
PCM$: 200.00
|
You don't win Eneco with 56 on cobbles. It would cost him minutes on the Geraardsbergen stage while in fact he finished with the big bunch that included Cancellara, Terpstra, Thomas, Langeveld... |
| |
|
|
| Dusen |
Posted on 03-09-2014 22:51
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1173
Joined: 30-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
75-76 Cobbles?
He is a great all-round rider but lets be carefull not to make him a monster in PCM cause that he is not (yet) |
| |
|
|
| TankNL |
Posted on 03-09-2014 23:19
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Dusen wrote:
75-76 Cobbles?
He is a great all-round rider but lets be carefull not to make him a monster in PCM cause that he is not (yet)
Really?? that way he could compete in Gent Wevegem, Vlaanderen, Omloop?
His best result is the 8th place in a stage with cobbles, part of a stage-race (the Eneco Tour). For the rest no professional results on cobble races... heck, even the year before that, he was 96th on the cobble stage in the Eneco. |
| |
|
|
| Dusen |
Posted on 03-09-2014 23:22
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1173
Joined: 30-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
|
TankNL wrote:
Dusen wrote:
75-76 Cobbles?
He is a great all-round rider but lets be carefull not to make him a monster in PCM cause that he is not (yet)
Really?? that way he could compete in Gent Wevegem, Vlaanderen, Omloop?
His best result is the 8th place in a stage with cobbles, part of a stage-race (the Eneco Tour). For the rest no professional results on cobble races... heck, even the year before that, he was 96th on the cobble stage in the Eneco.
Well you don't win the Eneco tour without being able to do cobbles well Mr. Statistics |
| |
|
|
| admirschleck |
Posted on 03-09-2014 23:32
|
Team Leader
Posts: 6690
Joined: 11-10-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
Dusen wrote:
Well you don't win the Eneco tour without being able to do cobbles well Mr. Statistics
No point in trying to say something like that on a sarcastic way ("Mr. Sarcastic"), while you're just not agreeing on one stat. That's just not how it should be done. Tank's system is really awesome, but there's something called reality and something that can't be expressed and showing with statistics, unfortunately.
Both of you have the point. His cobblestone results aren't good enough to have a decent COB stat, but PCM doesn't work that way. You have to be at least 65+ at cobbles to even be able to survive them in PCM, as we all know how strange cobbled stages are - waaay too many attacks from cobblestone guys, that nobody who has 56 COB could survive.
I'd personally give him something around 66-67. Perhaps one or two stats less or more, but it shouldn't go out of that range.
Edited by admirschleck on 03-09-2014 23:34
|
| |
|
