Oops, apparently I only intended to comment on this after getting back from vacation, but then forgot to submit... sorry for being late
I'm definitely not surprised by most of your predictions. I just compared it to mine - we have 11 teams where we differ by 0 or 1 spots, and 17 with a difference of up to 3 spots. So I'll mainly comment on those where we disagree a little more
I see the biggest difference in our assessment of Team UBS, which I can see promoting while you have them outside the Top 10. I guess I'm a bit biased by them being a Swiss team, while you write you don't love any of their riders. I do actually like Buchmann, with the wage obvoiusly being his major downside, though. Spengler's backups have been slightly bumped year after year, and I think he's gotten more consistent lately - at least I can see him score pretty well (also thanks to the big support you also noticed). Van Asbroeck and Schelling could still be solid despite their declines - and they still have one of the division's top TTT outfits, which could be worth quite some points.
I do agree however that the lack of a proper rebuild this year could (and probably will) hurt them later on.
In the category "4 spots lower", we also have Bralirwa. I guess we agree on the leaders being pretty strong, but I probably value the rest of the team a tad higher. Most importantly, they have significantly improved their TTT unit - and if Izagirre isn't held back by his inferior backups, they could be having a great season. But yeah, you see, we're talking about differences of 4 spots, so we still see them in a similar region ^^
Let's take a look at the differences the other way round then, teams you have 4+ spots higher than I do. The most notable difference there is Popo4Ever, which you have 6 places higher. As you write, Padun and Beltran will obviously be their biggest scorers by far - and I don't see that much behind them to be honest. Prevar has declined and already struggled last year, Taaramäe and Pluchkin have really measly backups now - but at least there's some really good depth. And if they continue to get some Varga magic (still ridiculous that a non-punchy non-sprinter finishes 2nd in TDU), you could indeed be right with that 8th place.
For Xero, I absolutely agree on your assessment of their leaders, and that someone needs to step up if they are to promote. With your 5th place prediction, you think someone will - I think it won't happen, so that's the main difference I guess. And I also don't like that much that none of their leaders really can TT, as you can't avoid all the TT-heavy races in PCT.
So, who's left? 2 teams, Lampre going first. I agree that Turgis, Meurisse and Daniel look great - and Dzama has already shown a whole lot of magic in TDU, so he could be a big contributor I didn't really expect for them. However, even more so than for Xero, I really don't like their lack of TTing - not in PCT. Even though they'll likely finish higher than some people think (at least they got higher than you or me though last year), I'm not quite sure if Top 10 is on the table with the cobbles competition having grown stronger.
And the final team with a bigger than 3 spots difference is mine. I'll definitely take that 7th place - I'm hoping for an outcome in that region, but didn't dare putting us that high
Whereas I might have the riders it takes to get a PCT Top 10, I might be lacking the (planning) experience to get the right riders to ride in the right races. TDU already was a partial failure with all of Schmid, Theuns and Bol present (and only one of them performing), so I have to hope my plans work out better in other races. I'd be happy with a Top 15, but Top 10 would obviously be nicer still
Thanks a lot for taking so much time to do this prediction, it was a lot of fun reading it!
