Well, you want some comments? Here you are - blame yourself for this wall of text
Stage Racing
I can fully get why Crabbe is #1 there - Chiarello should indeed be the division's best stage racer. However, he doesn't have bad support - he doesn't have any support at all! No other rider above 69Mo, meaning he'll likely be isolated very quickly - if that is a factor, he'll suffer from it. Furthermore, there's not much support for the TTT-heavy races - and there are three of them. Not sure if he can spend his RDs in a useful way in enough other C2 races.
It's a similar case for Lunke in terms of climbing support, which is only slightly better. But Gjensidige should be far stronger in TTTs, so I can see a higher scoring potential for Lunke compared to Chiarello.
Caja should do pretty well if Munoz gets some good planning decisions - and Ablenado was already strong last year, no reason he's much weaker in 2023. Berhane should get some good results for JEWA, and Garby is definitely a good rider to have for Tafjord.
And that's pretty much it with good climbers - I don't consider Alarcon or Manfredi to be in that category (anymore). Würth with Elosegui and Schelling are looking good for some surprise results, as are Ekoi with APP and Gall (as long as there's no TT for the latter). And Bordeaux with Iturria and Rochas, who furthermore have probably the highest number of 70+ Mo riders. Also expecting more from Fabbro (ANZ) this year, but planning will be key for him as well.
All in all, I think the Top 8 teams could indeed be the Top 8 in this domain in the end, but I'd slightly reorder them.
Puncheurs
No way past Eiking and Jensen in the pure hilly races, as reflected by Gjensidige and the Coyotes taking 1st and 3rd in the ranking. But probably no way past the Lagane/Mayer duo in the easier races where sprint matters. And then we have the likes of Lafay, Dall'Oste, Teuns and obviously APP for the more hybrid races. But the hills are looking really stacked, maybe even more than stage racing, so hard to predict a clear pecking order. Edmondson should be good in some races, and the Caja duo of Serrano and Quevedo had some great races as well last year. And Tajford should be there as well, now that Dyrnes won't get blocked by EBH anymore. Should be a fun year in the hills!
I'd say the Top 3 look pretty realistic here, but then I'd rather have Podium Ambition, Tafjord and maybe Caja Rural ahead of Crabbe - but don't remember which 5 teams I had on my top spots here tbh.
Cobblers
I agree that Strava should easily be #1 here. Especially Gaday looks great, and I'd even expect him to do pretty well at C1/HC level. But what's behind them? Last year, I expected Breen to do really well for Tafjord, but he was rather disappointing - getting some support by Kulppi now might however be what he needs to do better. Trantin for Saeco is intriguing, although I really don't like his energy stats after the second decline. Taubel (JEWA) has done well in CT cobbles in the past, whereas Chatarunga (Crabbe) was great last year, and Lampaert (Stela-Vita) has a decent scoresheet as well. Strong sprinters like Saber, Havik or to a lesser extent Naesen, Matthews or old man Bewley could get their results in a pretty weak CT field as well. Should be interesting with such a select group of cobblers!
Sprinters
Probably the area involving the highest degree of randomness, and hence the most difficult to assess. Personally, I value sprinters like Kamberaj (Stela-Vita) or Krieger (Hilcona), but also Boudat - which is why I had JEWA pretty high on my list, not because of Degenkolb. Riabushenko (Babymetal) could do well, too - just like the Würth duo of Minali and Willwohl. And then, there's obviously Saber (Mercatone Uno), who should still be worth at least part of his money. On the other hand, not really a fan of Zariff with pretty horrible backups - but with Scully still there as well, Air New Zealand should still score some decent sprint points.
Time Trialists
Gjensidige are the obvious winners here, having #1 and #3 in the division (I value Belevics slightly higher than Knotten) - there definitely was more competition in TTing last year. Tafjord and Würth should be pretty close for 2nd best in ITT-heavy events.
However, in terms of TTT, there's no way past Podium Ambition and the Turtles - and given how TTT-heavy the CT calendar actually is, I value their TT departments about as high as Gjensidige's. But whereas Podium Ambition could really capitalize on this with O'Connor in Catalunya, Vancouver and Trentino, the Turtles don't really have anyone who would fit their TTT lineup and who can climb well at the same time.
So, I can actually fully agree with these Top 5 (although I may have voted otherwise).
Rouleurs
An interesting category, and not one I'm usually considering too much - as it just takes some luck to capitalize on high flat. However, Arashiro is a proven baroudeur, and I'm still somewhat disappointed that I couldn't get him from FA. He's the clear #1 in the division in this discipline, and so Babymetal logically are on top. Stela-Vita's Yzeiraj is a cool rider to have as well, though, and they have several 75+ rouleurs. Which also holds for Tafjord and Strava, so not surprised to see them up there as well. Gjensidige have TT star Van Moer and sprinter Rojus, both having a great base for consistently strong performances with their rouleur skills.
Overall
Gjensidige and Tafjord in the Top 3, can definitely see that. I also had Podium Ambition up there, as it's one of the most well-rounded teams in my eyes. But well-roundedness doesn't help with this scoring system, where every discipline has the same weight.
Unfortunately for Strava, Cobblers and Rouleurs - their strongest areas - are the terrains potentially having the least impact on the final rankings. But thanks to the weighting system (and to the lack of competitors on the cobbles), they end up 3rd in this overall ranking. I rather have them at the lower end of the Top 10, or just outside - similar to the prediction.
And I also value Ekoi higher than the community prediction, as I'd have them on the final promotion spot - right ahead of Crabbe. And behind Würth. So I guess my prediction isn't that far away from the community one - will happily compare it after the season
Thanks again for doing this - it looks like there were still quite a lot of managers participating, although it definitely was a bit tedious.
