With some little tweaks (taking into account two predictions each for two users), we also had 7 predictions for CT (which you can find here). And here's how the aggregated prediction looks like compared to reality:
Whereas the PT and PCT predictions had the bottom two right, the CT one correctly predicted the Top 2. Both Jura and McCormick were in the Top 5 in every individual prediction, with the former even taking first in all but one, and the latter a podium in all but one.
Already in 3rd place, however, we have the biggest surprise of the division - actually the only team ending up 5 or more spots higher tahn predicted! As it was already said before, Glanbia took full advantage of a (T)TT-heavy CT calendar, and achieved not only promotion, but even ended up on the podium! The highest prediction they got saw them in 6th place, so they definitely surprised (almost) everyone. Yeah, I'm not surprised, but that doesn't matter as I didn't do a prediction, so that's easy to say
Colombini in 4th place actually are the second highest overperformers according to the preview, finishing 4 spots higher than predicted. Just like for Glanbia, their highest projected finish was 6th place - but unlike the Irishmen, all but one predictions saw them end up inside the Top 10.
Seeing Tryg promote isn't really surprising, as they were predicted to end up 4th. Only one prediction had them not promoting - and if not for a great ToA, that one prediction might actually have been accurate. But Zimmermann and Hoelgaard just turned things around in the final third of the year. Overall, that means that the community prediction - and the vast majority of the individual ones - correctly predicted 3/5 promoting teams.
What about the other ones? Well, they must be among the rather disappointing teams then. This is especially true for Tafjord - projected to finish 3rd, they ended up all the way down in 9th place, and probably don't even have a shot at disband promotion (if that still is a thing). Especially Hagen couldn't quite shake off his Minions failure mode, and surely was one of the most disappointing riders this year.
BNZ, who were predicted to take the final promotion spot, actually weren't that bad, ending up "just" two places below. They did have a solid season for sure, but not more. They might still end up going to PCT, though.
We do have two more pretty disappointing teams; the first one are Air New Zealand, who instead of taking a Top 10 finish only just made it inside the Top 15. None of Scully, Naesen or Fabbro were able to score as well as they were expected to, and so it definitely wasn't a great season for the Kiwis.
The other underperformers were Le Creuset, who were seen as a solid Top 15 contender - but finished 2nd to last (not counting Eddie Stobart, who were added to the division once predictions were already in). Great depth on the hills plus Boivin weren't quite enough to finish high up - probably some lessons learnt for the future, though.
As we're talking about the bottom feeders anyway, let's just compare prediction vs. reality in that region of the table. Without any surprise, Podium Ambition weren't able to leave anyone behind (bar the aforementioned Eddie Stobart) - last place in all predictions, last place in reality.
There wasn't much love either for Staffbase and Bordeaux pre-season - those guesses turned out to be right, though. Both ended up one spot higher than expected, but still within the bottom 5. At least that's still a Top 15 for the latter. Air New Zealand also hit ground on the final 5 spots, which as said before is pretty disappointing.
Overall, the CT predictions were by far the most precise - with even the worst preview having a lower average deviation than the best PCT one. Which isn't really surprising, though. On one hand, CT has 5 teams less (even 6 for the predictions). And on the other hand, there often is quite a difference between relegated teams, returning CT teams and new ones, making predictions easier - only in most cases, obviously.
So, the Community Prediction sets the benchmark at 2.2 spots per team on average. Which sounds great - but I tell you that someone was even a lot better: cunego's 2nd prediction in the lazy/busy wizards prediction thread reached the amazing average of just 1.7, easily netting him the Most accurate 2022 CT Prediction Award! Less than two spots off per team, that's an amazing outcome I'd say! He exactly predicted the final place for Jura, McCormick, Tryg, Bonduelle, Le Creuset and Podium Ambition! His only big miss was Glanbia, where he predicted 10th place - all others are within 3 spots from the prediction - congrats!
The Continental Division Songfestival by Nemolito, Marcovdw, Eden, SotD and cunego (again) actually was the better "Community Prediction" than the one taking every preview into account, ending up at an average deviation of 2.0 spots per team.
Next are Ulrich Ulriksen's two predictions in the lazy/busy wizards thread - with the 2nd one having a slight edge over the first (2.3 vs. 2.4), despite the 2nd one having the higher maximum deviation (8 spots for Tafjord).
cunego's first prediction then is the final one ending up below 3 spots of average deviation, with a value of 2.7. He got almost all the same teams right as in the 2nd one, but the misses for the others were mostly higher.
MacC and Croatia both posted in the lazy/busy wizards thread as well, and both of them end up with a 3.3 places per team average deviation. Both have a prediction that's 10 spots off the outcome (Mac for Colombini, Croatia for Air New Zealand) - and both missed Glanbia's final rank by 9 spots. Indeed, not even Mac had faith in his team
And this concludes the 2022 edition of the Community Preview! Thanks to all who participated in some way, and I'm already looking forward to the 2023 predictions! May the ones for my team look better than in my previous PCT adventure
I always like the look back to see whether our conglomerate preview once again did fairly well - which i think we did. Due to having a good idea who would be involved in the relegation fight while the promotion fight was completely unpredictable - which itself was almost predicted
Hopefully, we'll see some more previews for PT next year and id also like to see some PCT ones if there will be no more conglomerate previews. Im gonna try to throw in a lazy prediction at least
