So the offseason market has taken some time to develop but the market for the big 3 is now becoming clearer.
Starting with the King himself:
Possible Destinations: Gent: Rocha has enjoyed tremendous personal success and typically enjoyed the support of the best cobbled team in the peloton at Gent. But despite his six seasons of 3,000+ points he only has 1 senior title because Gent haven't been competitive in the hills or the mountains. And Gent, who don't have the largest budget, face the challenge that the more money they give Rocha the less they have to put a team around him.
ABCA: The thought that the defending champions could sign the most dominant rider the in the peloton has to be dismaying to the rest of the competition. But with their sugar-daddy ownership the Dutch squad have the wherewithal to get Rocha. And with premium riders like Levassuer and Willemsen already on the roster and a reasonable core of cobbled riders Rocha would not be worried about being a one-man team.
UNO: The Barcelona squad have the money to spend and it is thought that Rocha might prefer a team closer to home. UNO also has strong riders in other disciplines and would have a great shot at the title with Rocha on board. But they have little depth in the cobbles and would struggle to put a cobbled team around Rocha for a season or two.
Colombia: The development of Janus into a premium rider is bittersweet for the Colombians. It is great to develop a rider of his quality it is just unfortunate that his skill set is similar to their current #1 rider: World TT champion and home-country hero Enrique Raya. And Janus has said he would prefer to have the lead role in the mountain stages while Colombia would want him to focus more on the punchier races as Raya leads in the mountains. So it isn't clear that the Colombians have the money or the will to compete for his signature. Nevertheless you don't let a rider like Janus escape without at least putting an offer on the table.
Bianchi: Generally considered the front-runners for Janus' signature once they resigned Swiss, cobbler Fabian Favre, and took themselves out of the Rocha sweepstakes. Janus is a natural successor to Bianchi legend Uwe Ullman who they did not resign. With glamour of the famous Italian team and the guarantee of a lead role in the mountains they seem like the perfect destination for Janus.
Liege et Namur: The only problem for Bianchi fans is that Liege can offer Janus all the same things: a rich contract and mountain leadership for one of the biggest teams in the peloton. Liege et Namur may also be a little more willing to stretch their budget as their other leaders Cant, Zucchi and Bianco, are all on the wrong side of 30.
Versailles Versailles are the third famous team in on Janus. But while recent years have generally seen Bianchi and Liege near the top of the standings, Versailles have struggled and spent last season in the second tier. But they have carefully managed their contracts and have a lot of budget flexibility to compete for Janus and at Versailles he will be the face of the team rather than being 1 of 3 or 4 top stars at the other two.
Tigres Bilbao: Historically the best Basque riders have been developed by Tigres but have starred for richer, more famous teams. Ibarrola was supposed to end that. With a few years of senior division stability under their belt and far more of the revenue derived from TV contracts Tigres expected to be able to retain their star. So when Ibarrola announced he wanted to explore the market it sent shock waves through the team and fans. It still seems likely that the Basque rider will stay at home as Bilbao can offer him good money, a leadership role and a strong team. And maybe, with a good season from sprinter Mario Pignatelli, a shot at the title.
UNO: If they don't get Rocha, Ibarrola is an obvious fallback for UNO. Their current leader for the hilly races, Tomás Roza, is 34 and out of contract and they have money to spend. The question is whether Ibarrola is willing to desert his Basque heritage for the bright, lights of Barcelona.
Hamburg: Hamburg have the classic problem of less established senior division teams: even when they have money to spend the very top riders are nervous about signing because if things go wrong they will be in a relegation battle. Hamburg are rumored to have put a lot of money on the table for Ibarrola, but he may just use it as leverage with other teams.
Gent: If Rocha signs with Gent then they aren't a player in this battle, but if he doesn't they will have the money and the team to be attractive to Ibarrola. And perhaps leaving Tigres for Gent will be a little more palatable for his Basque fans than joining Barcelona.
One more team profile before I move into rider signings: Bianchi Milano
History
Founded in 1899, Bianchi are one of the giants of the peloton. With 11 World Series titles they are tied with Liege et Namur for the most. They are one of the "11 Old Ladies" the 11 teams that drove the development of the World Series. They are now independently owned but retain naming rights and a long-term bike sponsorship with the manufacturer. More recently, led by the great German climber Uwe Ullman and Czech rouler Matej Hájek, they won back-to-back titles in 2015 and 2016
2020 Season Recap
2020 was supposed to mark the start of a new era for Bianchi. The 36 YO Ullman was moved into a domestique role and new signing Federico Raggi was supposed to take up the mantle. But Raggi struggled while wearing the rainbow stripes and the bottom fell out for Hájek. At one point Bianchi appeared to be relegation candidates but they finished strongly with Raggi playing a key role as Gromulka won Lombardia, Favre bossed the Ronde but lost out in the sprint and Hájek showed he has still has it by winning the worlds in Bergen. Bianchi fans will point out that ABCA suffered a miserable 2019 but built some late momentum and went on to win the title in 2020.
2021 Early Prognosis
The possible outcomes for Bianchi in 2021 seem to range from a title win to another low to mid-table finish. Raggi, and Favre are all back as well as a strong core of domestiques. If Raggi finds his 2019 form, Favre is as consistently strong as he was in the Ronde and they win the race to sign Wojciech Janus then look for them to be in the title fight.
But if none those happen and Favre is again their only moderate scorer they will be mid-table at best.
The end of an era
Uwe Ullman and Bianchi have announced they have decided it is time to part ways. But after 8 great seasons Ullman will always be welcome in Milan.
