knockout wrote:
Rule #1 : Always be a bit further down the road when you start posting your things..

Dippofix wrote:

Starting a season preview in February wouldn't be much good though, would it?

Cycleman123 wrote:


Well then don't start something you can't finish in time.

nacho63 wrote:


Did you not do the same with your predictions?

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Euskaltel	29	3	74,68	76,4	72	74,4	73,4	77,2

Captains : Ion Izagirre, Rudy Verboven and Benat Intxausti
Team Manager : Atlantius
Expected Finish : 16th

"Viva la Espana!" or should I say "Viva la independencia!" cause we're not actually in Spain, we're in the Nothern Regions of Spain. The spanish guys in orange are back this year and after thorough statistics, the team has gotten a lot more stronger on the overall side of things. The only downside to this has been, that the team could've been a lot stronger and all this is for staying at a theme, but this deserves much respect aswell.

Even though the team has an overall better team, they're still gonna face the fact that their number of point scorers are around 5 people and I do see that they got some strong support. Big applause for bringing "Spanish Cobblers" to the team, which existence might've been unknown for like since Flecha was able to do well in the Spring Classics!

The best theme in the WT is here at Euskaltel, but for keeping a theme one must see the downsides and this project could've worked better elsewhere, but the core theme of the independence of the Basque Country is an unique story, which are shared by their neighbours in the East.

My Opinion

I do like this team and I also personally praised this as the team with the best Transfer Season. Though the team hasn't been upgraded by great lenghts, they will get a lot of support from me and others for keeping such a clean theme in the WT.

Verboven finally have proper support for himself and the mountain squad is strong as ever, but the sprinters are few and weaker than anyone else in the WT, so trouble awakes in that area to say the least. It's gonna be close for Euskaltel to survive, though their 3 GT's this year might be their ticket to stay in the WT for another year!

Garmin - Sharp

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Garmin	30,2	12	76,36	77,2	76	77,2	74,6	76,8

Captains : Dan Martin, Andrew Talansky and Bradley Wiggins
Team Manager : Dippofix
Expected Finish : 8th

Hills and Mountains are just one of the few areas the divine terrain of the Americas can offer, but anyhow the team has stayed within these areas to make an new American project, does this not remind you of some other project?? (US Postal)

We won't need a doping scandal to see what's under the blanket, but the team has gotten really strong in all areas this year. This team can do everything and in a positive sense this project is already more succesful than that of US Postal. You can really only love or hate this team for making such an overall team, so why they're expected to become 8th is still a good question.

Fact is that the other team has gotten just as strong, so individual skills got to be on the right place all season for success to arise and the team's final placement will depend on whether they wins these fights. Dan Martin is an automatical podium to any Ardennes Classic. Talansky, Wiggins and Velits is an almost secure Top 10 in any GT and this is just the beginning.

It's frightening to say the least, that the WT's top is so strong, while the other half has gotten the wrong foot out of the bed. Top 8 is all give or take and it can end in many ways with so many factors. Let's just say that Garmin is a strong team and they are going to be interesting to follow.

My Opinion

This team got it all and nothing to say the least. By nothing I sense that this team is slippery when it comes to getting the big scores in the important races, so in the end it's all up to the manager. Garmin is hard to place and I do think that they can earn a high ranking if they pull themselves together and do well all year long.

Consistency and Courage are the key words for this team and to be frank they could end in the Top 3 if they were extemely lucky with startlists and if their riders got Podiums in every GT (which is possible)

Katusha

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Katusha	26,8	11	74,88	76,6	71	75	75,4	76,4

Captains : Roman Kreuziger, Alexander Kristoff and Simon Spilak
Team Manager : Bikex
Expected Finish : 11th

Remind me what leaders were on Katusha last season and when you've answered that you can already see why they are 11th on our list. Katusha wasn't the brightest in the Transfer Season and all great achievents are in the hands of 3 people. Imagine the Sagan scenario, where Kreuziger crashes on the 5th stage of TdF and suddenly Katusha are battling the bottom tier teams?

Sprinters are unreliable to say the least and basing their ending results on their stats aren't always the big triumph. Cavendish were 47th on the rankings last season and imagine a Top 10 in a GT for Kreuziger and that spot for Kristoff, then Katusha is all about the domnestiques. Last season Katusha had one of the best mountain trains and now we're gonna see less red, hopefully blood won't cover many percents in that matter.

Right sorry time for some positive words like, Why sell one of the best mountain trains, so you can get a young climber which will end on the same level just with less support? Well that's the best I can come up with and now let's be serious cause someone needs help.

Jan Barta, Roman Kreuziger and Marko Kump for Purito, Moreno and Vicioso is just not great enough for a team with bigger standards than being under the 10th spot in the rankings. The team has gotten younger and green passages are far from certain for this team, but I do say that the Age Average shows some sort of progress.



The next generation is here and it's colorful, but this won't be enough for me to become fond of this team, but as an big fan of Jan Barta I can find a soft spot approaching. Identity is lost and even though part of that identity was foreign, I still can't figure out the right spot for Katusha.

Easter European with a touch of Nordic sense is the new formula and the team has become more focused on smaller stage races than the GT's, which is not a bad thing, but nor will give them a huge advantage when one of the biggest stage races approaches. Careful planning is always the key for the smaller teams and new standards are to be set for Katusha.

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Lotto	27,8	6	74,48	75	73,2	72,2	77	75

Captains : Andre Greipel, Jurgen Roelandts and Jurgen van den Broeck
Team Manager : Marcodw
Expected Finish : 14th

"The Cobbles Team that couldn't ride on the Cobbles" is my opening thought and I don't see any signs of Lotto perserving the great Cobblers from Belgium, instead they've gotten themselves a Transfer Window with small domnestiques replacing stabile members of once a proud clan of showing what pure teamwork is.

When I see Lotto as a team, I see a place for harmony to grow and their great Teamwork is widely known among the team trying to mimic that. As previously stated sprinters are unstable and the teams only big advantage are the others team's disadvantage of acquaintance.

VdB will give the team a decent spot in any GT and Greipel is a stabil choice for few stage wins, so I wouldn't count them out of the big scene there. Lotto can end in a good position if their startllist's are smart and lucky enough for some of their riders to dominate smaller races. Lotto deserves credit for keeping their identity and the weakness of the team is that there isn't enough to satisfy a high ranking spot.

My Opinion

I don't have a lot of words for this team, cause they are brilliant in their own way and you have to credit them for getting so young talents for some big jobs. The only reason the Age Average is this high is because they got some older veterans to lead them and for them to get new leaders, they need to stay attractive for more better deals next year.

This season is all about getting themselves in a good position, cause if they fail hard they will have to recover very slowly. The brilliance of the manager is not accounted for and if they we're to get a strong custom rider on the team, they might be able to get back on track quicker than expexted.

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Lotto	27,8	6	74,48	75	73,2	72,2	77	75

Captains : Andre Greipel, Jurgen Roelandts and Jurgen van den Broeck
Team Manager : Marcodw
Expected Finish : 14th

sgdanny wrote:
@Ollfardh and The Hobbit : Garmin's preview were already quite long and as I don't rate cobbles that high, I simply chose not include it

Ollfardh wrote:
Yeah, saying that to a Belgian.. Consider any progress points made with the preview as lost

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Movistar	29,2	6	76,12	78,8	72,6	75,4	76	77,8

Captains : Alejandro Valverde, Nairo Quintana and Rui Costa
Team Manager : Knockout
Expected Finish : 1st

When your in Top 3 of the strongest team in the pack, then it demands you to have an overall squad and in this Transfer Season they have managed to go further than that. Movistar can now both do well on Cobbles and in the Sprints now, which makes them just as overall strong as Sky and BMC.

Alejandro Valverde is the No.1 point scorer of all the riders and he's automatically almost secured a Top 3 in the Rider Rankings. He's a beast in the Ardennes and other than that his climbing skills are on the same level as Contador and Froome. Nairo Quintana is the future Emporer and successor to both Valverde and Purito in the mountains.

Now you might think they just have great support, well I would say more like fantastic support with an Rui Costa with alike skills in Mountains and Hills, just on a smaller level. Now time to be more specific and I don't really see Sky doing better in the number of riders capable of getting as many points as the riders from Movistar.

I could mention a lot of their other names, but fact is that instead of perfecting other areas, they've managed to go all-in on every terrain and the progress have been equal to each other, so the thing is that they still only have strong riders in the hills and mountains, but are on the expected level in the other areas, without making one specific stronger.

My Opinion

The unwritten rule is that you should dispute those who perfect everything and the top teams are hard to really love in general, but they manage to have some coloful riders and they set the agenda for the others. My point being that they take the role as Target Board and the others are considered to be the arrow, which are trying to hit the biggest number possible.

Only thing that you can say as a person is, that yet after Sky's season last season, you must say that Movistar is stronger for another reason and that is they don't have as good stats as Sky, but their core strength is that the leaders have stronger support when looking away from the Top 5 of each main category.

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Quickstep	26,5	7	76,4	77,4	75,4	77,8	74,8	76,6

Captains : Tony Martin, Tom Boonen and Michal Kwiatkowski
Team Manager : Paul23
Expected Finish : 6th

It's now officially possible to remove the strongest cobble team in a decade and remove it, just to find yourself exactly where you were last season. More interesting is the fact that Time Trial's are Quickstep's strongest area and then you must ask how they expect to get many points from there?

Only bright thing which have occured here at Quickstep is, that the team has gotten a lot younger and the team now have a foundation to stand on. This foundation is not strong enough for Quickstep to hit it's previous standards and their main focus is still confusing to say the least. Kwiatkowski is the future of the Ardennes, but this might change to a was, since he will be focusing more on the mountains, to fit something that the team actually needs.

Giving Quickstep 6th place is probably a big question mark and while still having solid point scorers, one small mistake can send them way back and I don't think they will recover that easily. A downgrade was in the making of everyone's beliefs, but I don't think for a second that we would see such a strong team vanish.

The team is young and the next generation is all Quickstep really got on their hands, when it comes to the consistency a top team needs and when looking out of the Top 5 of each category, one might wonder who will make those small and necessary wins.



Terrible Transfer Season ends up with a team, which is both to be questioned about, but also a team you can't persist having some good thoughts about. The team is more pure now and the overpriced youngsters are in need of proving their value this year and I doubt they will be able to do that.

Quickstep's only hope is for the other rivals to fail and for themselves to establish something new in the GT's and the team will have a strong field for Tour de France, so I expect to see some great things still from this team. In the end it's up to perfect race planning and a lot of luck for this team to end in 6th, but Kwiatkowski and Boonen are two heavy riders to look out for.

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Orica	28,5	11	75,68	77	71,6	76	77,2	76,6

Captains : Simon Gerrans, Diego Johnson and Matthew Goss
Team Manager : Cycleman123
Expected Finish : 15th

They might be the Australian monopoly with a touch of european cycling, cause apparently a big Continent like Australia isn't filled with enough stars for a pure australian team. The reason for mentioning this first is, that despite that there is a lot of australian talent, the team has gotten into a path filled with various nationalities and Orica has lost it's former pure focus.

The Transfer Season has been colorful, but in the end the team has gained less than they've lost and the team must consider themselves at the bottom of the World Tour. They don't have a certain Top 10 in a GT, their strongest riders are sprinters, which have to fight against the best and the same occurs in the Ardennes where the opponents also are stronger.

Orica is trying to keep up with the other big teams, for this they deserve credit, but perhaps it would've been better for them to bring in some youngster for the future, as their current leaders won't make them relegate that easily. The team has a good foundation for the future still, but it could've been a lot better and the signing of Cadel Evans shows just why this is the current situation.

The team still has it's roots and as I recall their original goal was to create a strong team for young talents to learn from more experienced riders, but they've instead decided to focus more on surviving, than beginning to perserve on younger talents for the future.



I liked how the team shaped out on their first year of existence, but the new manager has chosen a different path, which on a lot of places are too safe and experience has been prioritized before creativity, so I've lost some love for this team.

They will depend on Stage wins in the GT's, which is possible and is going to happen at some point, but this isn't enough if you want to stay in the WT, so I think that if they can get a stabile and consistent tempo on their results, they will perhaps take Lotto and Euskaltel on about the 14th place. They won't relegate, but I think that they won't get an succesful season out of this so far.

Nat.	Team	Age	Nationalities	AVG	MO	CB	TT	SP	HL
	Sky	28,1	10	77,44	78	76,8	76,6	77,6	78,2

Captains : Chris Froome, Mark Cavendish and Rigoberto Urán
Team Manager : jaxika
Expected Finish : 2nd

They dominated the World Tour last year and even though they've only gotten stronger during this transfer season, they've still managed to only get 2nd in our predictions. This reason is fairly simple and the problem with Sky is that I only see them win over Movistar, if Mark Cavendish manages to do way better than last year.

When you see out of the Top 5 of each main stat, they just don't have the depth to beat Movistar and Cavendish seems to be the only card capable of turning the tides. Two young custom riders are given some big roles, with Weschenbach in the hilly sprints and Alf Pedersen in the cobbles.

Only problem is that they've not proven their worth yet and I doubt these two guys will do much to beat Movistar. With my counting I only see 5 riders that really will fight for the big points, but Froome might take two GT wins and that is unfortunately both possible and also true that if he does that, the season rankings are quickly done by then.

My Opinion

Nothing much to say about this team, I do like some of their riders this year and to be fair they have a boring team. Don't judge me, but I really don't see much than raw riders, which is capable of fighting for the big spots.

Jaxika must face the automatic wrath of all his opponents, as Team Sky is both feared and always credited by the negative words of his opponents.

Ollfardh wrote:
Hmm, I think you have a few positions double 2nd and 16th

Hi Adrian nice too meet you, how are you settling in at BMC after your move from Team Sky?

I'm loving it! The manager made me feel right at home straight away. Unlike Sky with their GC focus i've felt right at home here amongst a group of riders who are allowed to ride as they like. I've created good friendships with Andy, Adam and Simon and work closely with Thor and Taylor. All in all i am very happy right now and i just want to try my best for this team.

Some were surprised too see you leave the British outfit as a Brit yourself after a great year, how did the move come about?

It was never a great secret i wasn't totally happy at Sky. I'm so glad i had the chance to ride for the UK's flagship team and work with some amazing people. But the team and myself were heading in two different directions and i wanted out. BMC courted me heavily last year and offered me so much in exchange for my signature, i just couldn't say no.
Looking now it's less clear a decision to make. Sky's cleared out a bit in the GC department to better support Cav's. And if Mark is willing to go back the team must be doing something right.

You were one of the more successful EPIC riders last season beating Brouwer in a head to head, what was your moment of last season?

My favorite moment... Either winning the Guildford stage of the Tour of Britain, winning the Velo d'Or for Best EPIC Rider or being the first EPIC rider to wear a GT Leaders Jersey.
I lived for a couple of years in Surrey and had a girlfriend who lived in Guildford. Those were roads and fans i knew personally so to succeed there was a great personal moment.
Winning the Velo d'Or award was a perfect cap to a season. So great to be recognised my the managers and UCI and to put an end to the rivalry with Willem.
And you just can't beat making history in Pink. A defining moment for any riders career and one i will always cherrish. But i couldn't ever pick between them.

You've already stated that you will target the years first monument Milano San Remo, what else do you have instore for 2014?

Yes the MSR is a big target for me. I finished in the Top10 last season and now with the easier, but still tough, route i'll be looking at the Top5. After that my next goal will be the Giro, no secret there. Great race for me last year and now i get to travel to it with some dedicated riders to make a real challenge at the Points Jersey. Finally i'll just be aiming at the late season classics again. No specific race goals just looking to repeat the August-Sepetember-October run i had last year because that was an amazing period of results.
No Tour de France, even though it starts in the UK. I didn't ask to go either. It would be great but i didn't want to cause a clash with Tejay and the Tour will go back to the UK again.

Belkin managed to fend off BMC for 3rd place in the team ranking, after the transfer window do you think you can pip them this year?

It will be tough. Belkin, Sky and Movistar have all improved their teams since last year. Then there will be an increasing challenge from behind as well as most World Tour teams have taken big steps forwards. BMC has done very well through transfers as well so perhaps the gaps havn't changed.
Can we beat Belkin? I have to say yes don't i! I think we'll be able to tell a lot at the end of Part 1 as to what teams will do well this season so i'll reserve major comment until that time.

Who do you think will be the suprise rider and team of 2014?

Keep an eye on FDJ.fr. They've cut back but all that's done is make them leaner and more focused. They could give a lot of WT teams a close run. Sticking in France watch Europcar. They shocked to a Top10 last year and have made significant improvements i think in the transfer period. Khamphan, Shroeder and Hinault are all excellent riders and could be fighting for that top EPIC rider position.
If i had to pick a team to watch more than others i'd say Sky actually. Yes they are expected to win but they could go even better than last year, and that is scary.
On the rider front i'd watch Kelderman. That team, Belkin, is dedicated to making him a GT winner and i'd expect him to possibly podium one this year if he keps growing as he did last year.

Thanks for taking the time to speak to The Tracker Adrian!

Always a pleasure and I hope you'll have me back again through the season.