Great preview of my team, and similar to my own views of the team. We have two very strong sprinters, I think 2 of the Top 5 going by the Sprint stat in the entire Man game, although the weakness on the hills probably means they aren't quite as good as that, but still should grab good results spread out the year. Then the rest of the team is basically A- leaders for the PCT. Not absolute stars but also very good and with some luck, able to bring in lots of points.
Nice preview. Probably my favourite one, as it has Metinvest rated as 6th.
That would be awesome placement really andf in some circumstances maybe even promotion spot, we will see, but same as you, i think we will come just short in 2014 and will fight more year after.
@jph: pff, foolish tries, Reus will have his ass kicked. Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 07-04-2014 13:30
Oz Cycling Project Manager: tsmoha / Prediction: 7th
Coming off the back of two seasons spent at the bottom of this division, Oz now have finally found the resources to really improve the team's overall quality and can now look forward to their first top-half finish with the top ten well in reach.
After missing him last year as he maxed out, Oz now have their captain and best rider back in the form of Bobridge who's better than ever. His TT and hill ability makes him a dangerous threat for races with one or both of those disciplines. Should be great rivals with Ignatiev.
They have one of the top sprinters in the division in Goss, who should still add a few points despite the amount of competition. Koren should prove to be a good scoring addition being another with decent climbing and good TT skills while Visconti adds hilly depth for the classics. Rogers is also back and should still dominate the flatter TT's despite ageing.
There are more, which shows Oz's capabilities as an all-round team. The riders are there for a possible promotion push, but they may just fall short. Next year though they should be a force to be reckoned with.
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Another of the continental crew last year, Privatbank had a relatively successful year in which they managed to reach the top ten. This season though like many who have come up, it could be a battle against relegation.
The Ukranian squad decided to go with a sprinting focus this year and set up to support a big sprinter, one that never really came. It remains their strongest department, but they'll have to rely on the likes of Greipel and Vanoverschelde to bring in results wherever they can, which could prove tough.
On the side they have a couple of decent climbers with both Topchanyuk and Efimkin arriving with decent climbing stats, though they aren't anywhere near amongst the best on the mountains. Konovalovas adds hilly time-trialing skills that could prove valuable if things go down to the wire while Vaitkus can fend for himself in the sprints as well.
The depth in secondary leaders should take them over the line and keep them in the division just about I think. Without that clear big point-scorer though it could be close.
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Project: Africa Manager: aidanvn13 / Prediction: 28th
A mid-table finish last time out in the continental tour didn't prevent this team becoming a favourite of many's riding under the name MTN-WBR because of their exotic focus. Now back for more in the PCT division, they had a strange transfer season in which they couldn't quite get the sprinter they needed to complete their goals, before losing their best rider due to going over cap.
All that means that their best rider ended up probably being Augustyn, who came in from Aker on a very low wage. The South African is a good quality stage-racer at this level who can score decently wherever he goes. However, he isn't among the best climbers in the division so could struggle to bring the top fives if the competition is tough.
Project have an impressive sprint department, but they lack a quality leader after main target Van Heerden got poached from them. They had to resort to Maksimov, who can get top results but only if the road is completely pan-flat. There is plenty of backup for him but no rider good enough to lead except maybe the slower Lay. Hategka adds a hilly leader but once more he isn't among the top bracket of riders on that terrain.
Losing Krasnoperov and Van Heerden in transfers were real blows as now they have to rely on the likes of Hategka and Augustyn to save them from relegation with big points. It could be too tough a task.
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Quickstep Manager: Alakagom / Prediction: 2nd
After a talent spending spree last year, this team was predicted to have a relegation battle on its hands. The opposite happened though, as plenty of surprise results lead them towards the top half as they became the best new team in the division. Things are looking even better ahead of their second season, where after a great transfer season the look to have top riders on all terrains.
It's hard to pinpoint where this team's strength is because there are just too many. I'm going to predict that their best scorer will be the recently signed Froome, who should be one of the best if not the best puncheur in the division this year. With the vast majority of hilly races in this division he won't bump into major riders everywhere and a few wins should be on the cards.
They also have one of the top sprinters in the division in the form of Vantomme, who's performances last year fired Rothaus - Aegon to promotion. They have arguably the strongest cobble department in the league with Baugnies a great leader due to his decent hill ability as well and Steurs there backing up which should come with it a heap of points. Marquez also returns to lead them in the mountains, and you can see him doing well also after he won races last year at this level.
Quickstep have race-winning leaders wherever they go which should comfortably fire them to promotion and give them the capabilities to challenge for the title. Bacardi may prove to be a little bit too strong for them there, but anything can happen.
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RBC Pro Cycling Manager: jt1109 / Prediction: 11th
Last year RBC had a transition year after their time in D2, where they built the foundations of a good PCT team by not relegating and signing some good riders. This year they'll look to build on that be finishing higher up the table, with maybe a top ten on if they do very well.
Their big leader this year will be Bellis, who rides for yet another team. The journeyman has proved year in and year out that he is a top quality rider at this level and that his combination of great hill ability and a decent sprint can bring in points. He'll hope to carry on his performances of the past few years for RBC.
They also brought in Vanderbiest in transfers, and even though he isn't the best in the division he should do well in the sprinter classics and grab top fives and top tens wherever he goes. Docker is another sprinting option with impressive climbing skills while Anderson is a mini-Bellis in a way snd should follow the Brit with some good results.
Overall, I think the leaders at RBC are enough to consistently score well and move them quite high up. A promotion push isn't quite on yet but that could well be the case next year if they can keep improving.
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Repsol had a close scrape last year relegation wise and could have easily gone down if not for a couple of saving results near the end of the season. Now back for more though they do look a better outfit, even if they won't be near the top of the division.
The team spent big on Kislerovski in transfers, making him the season-highest paid rider in the division behind Pozzovivo. For this money they get one of the best stage-racers in the division, one that should pull off a couple of big wins along the way. However though, there are better riders in these races so he'll have to try and avoid the likes of Intxausti, Uran, Pozzovivo and Brajkovic.
Clearly a climbing focused, a slightly declined Kashechkin should be a decent point scorer and should launch another assault on the Tour of America which could prove to be fruitful. Other climbers like Ardila and Soler will look to grab results dotted around, with maybe Acevedo going for a few hilly classics. They also have a sprinter in Andriato, but nothing special really.
It should be enough to stay away from the relegation battle this time and take a mid-table placing due to their firepower on the mountains. If they hit the wrong races though, things can go a lot worse.
Hmm 11th maybe a bit too high for my team possibly 14th-19th is a bit more realistic does depend completely on Bellis though other then that it's about spot on as we will be much stronger next year.
Swedbank - PEAB Manager: viking90 / Prediction: 9th
One of a few Scandinavian-based teams now in the game, Swedbank had a consolidatory year last time out as they stayed clear of relegation and began to build for future years. This year they will undoubtedly be stronger, but how strong is quite hard to predict.
After a strong transfer season they managed to recruit plenty of hilly talent, which should be their best terrain this year. Their biggest acquisition was certainly Skujins on loan from Vesuvio, who will return maxed to his parent team but for now he is one of the stronger puncheurs in the division and could land good points if his season is planned wisely.
Adding to the hilly squad is Hoogerland, who should be able to lead on the hills on his own and score because of his great all-round climbing ability. Lofkvist was their main man last year and can get good results in stage races this year despite not being among the very best, something he did well last year. In Kreder they have rider who can sprint well and climb a little, a good combination and Hermans adds more depth.
Overall, quite a few strong leaders should be enough to put Swedbank well into the top half and could be enough to push them into the top ten. If Skujins, Lofkvist and Hoogerland are all distributed nicely between races it could be a good season for the Swedes.
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Team CSC - Orbea Manager: Mresuperstar / Prediction: 8th
CSC fell far below expectations last year and ended up having a nightmare season, finishing in a relegation spot. Saved by the vast number of disbanding teams, Mre has worked wonders in transfers to transform this team from potential relegation candidates to top ten material.
One thing that hasn't changed is the team's main focus, with the mountains being the big strength. Abal once more leads the way, and with a whole host of strong climbers behind him, a better season could be in store than last year for the Spaniard.
Massive mountain depth is impressive, with Cobo, Lloret, Plaza, De La Fuente and Serpa all above 75 mountain, a brilliant lineup. Despite their ages, this could be a great year for the mountain squad. Add to that Ventoso who should fire just as last year for Prio, even if he'll run into the likes of Kump and Vastaranta. Barrio can bring in the odd result or two on the hills also.
The big climbing depth should push CSC into the top ten, with Ventoso and the others adding onto that. I think that other teams may have bigger scoring leaders, but CSC should have a much better year this year than last.
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Team Hornbach Manager: tyriion / Prediction: 17th
Last year, riding as UPC, this team just managed to steer clear of relegation due to some consistent sprinting results and Reus adding some crucial points. This year sees the team building on that by really creating a super-strong cobbles team and having a good sprint setup once more.
Their biggest asset is certainly new recruit Franzoi, who is undoubtedly the strongest on the cobbles in the division. Baugnies may have a say on hillier routes, but look no further than the Italian on pure cobble ability. It's this that could bring in Hornback plenty of points if he can win a few races, something that he is certainly capable of.
Veelers, Trentin, Lindeman and Wynants all add to what I think is the strongest cobbled lineup in the division, something that could bring in points galore in the limited number of cobbled races there are. On top of that Lavoine is a decent sprinter, if not great in a division packed with sprinting talent, while Gavazzi is yet another rider in the PCT that is adept as a sprinter-puncheur.
This combined should keep Hornbach away from relegation. No mountain, hill or TT options could leave them short in quite a few of their race days, but their impressive cobbled depth should make up for that and should get them into a lower mid-table spot.
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Team Kenya Airways Manager: FroomeDog99 (Me) / Prediction: 23rd
Quite a hard one for me, but I think I've not been too biased. Finishing in mid-table last year like I predicted, we added some good point-scorers I hope, which I think will be enough to just about steer clear of relegation.
Our main asset is the hills, with Ben Nasser headlining. The Tunisian combines good hill ability with also a decent finishing kick, something that could make him a good outsider in most hilly races his year. He also avoids quite a few of the bigger hilly races that year so could do well I hope.
Behind him there is less talent, but Samwel will hopefully get in a few top fives/tens wherever he goes due to his mountain talent, even though he isn't up to scratch in other disciplines like other more rounded stage racers. Gasparotto and Wegmann will also hopefully do decently and add points here and there on hilly races with flat finishes, but there are plenty of others like that in the PCT. Ndbri is also a decent climber.
Overall, not the best depth but I think Ben Nasser + the rest should be enough to generate enough results for survival. It could be close though and we could well go down with our leaders being quite loose canons.
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Team Puma - SAP Manager: cio93 / Prediction: 13th
Last year was a strange one for Puma, with no expectations of survival in the Pro Tour before a couple of surprise results lead them towards the brink of a great escape. In the end though they were just relegated. Now with a fresh chance to rebuild in the PCT, they once more spent big on talents.
Their biggest rider is surely new arrival Ciolek, who should be one of the top sprinters in the division thanks to some training even if there is plenty of competition. If he can score Puma should have a relatively pleasant season.
Behind him Nerz should be a decent leader in stage races if he can avoid the more heavily contested races. The still developing Kelderman and Vogt should be able to do decently on the hills as well even if big results on the cards. Also, you can't talk about this team without mentioning Herklotz (and the loaned out Demare), two of the biggest talents in the game.
Promotion straight back to the PT is unlikely due to Cio's need of Herklotz, but they should be good enough to stay in the top half with Ciolek's speed and the manager's planning skills with the other riders. They should be back up with the big boys in a couple of years.
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Venchi were rock-bottom of the PT last year and had a tough year among the elite, but now they are back in PCT they should have their chance to shine once more and bouncing straight back should be on the cards for the Italian team.
The big star I think will be Van Staeyen, who is just a total beast after his training. A good puncheur in his own right and also one of the top sprinters in the division, that is a deadly combination I think he will top the individual standings come the end of the year. Send him to the right races and he could put Venchi in the promotion places by himself.
Not the only star in this team though, Duarte should be a strong stage-racer if he can avoid the hills as he strangely hates them. Craven combines great hilly skills with a strong TT, a combination that could bring in plenty of good results and Di Maggio is one of the best puncheurs in the division even if he lacks backup stats. Van Avermaet and Corioni also add sprinting options.
Overall, their squad is better than last year I think! Sykkel has done a great job in transfers and Van Staeyen's firepower combined with the rest's points should lead to promotion. Quickstep and Bacardi are marginally stronger in my eyes but Venchi have the potential to prove me wrong.
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Very nice, well worth the wait. The highest I've been placed so far... I like you. Great looking at the roster photo and seeing all that green in my mountain section (and seeing a guy named Newton), it just makes me happy.
Whatever happens I'm really going to enjoy this season.
I think this is a very solid and thoughtful prediction Froomedawg - well done! I should imagine 1st through to 14th is about right - on reflection and the tidbits released by their managers puma and Gazelle will be happy with mid table years.
There is nothing much between the teams from 15th to 25th, so It really is guess work for them. Not sure the two teams hornbach and AMEX will finish so high.
In general though great work you are for PCT what Count and roturn is for PT with deep analysis.
Great last part of your anylysis, sorry to all the other boys doing them, but it hink yours is the most complete and deep one, kuddos for that! I think Kenya could end up even higher than you put yourself.
Nice to see us 6th and Ignatiev 2nd in individual ranking, my realistic picks would be 8th and Mikhail 4th-5th individually, we will see. Van Stayen should be banned!
Don´t expect my planning to be smart and wise, come on I did my planning on a friday night with some whiskey it was the only time I had enough time over
After all these previews saving me from relegation, I have become hopeful. You can't all be wrong right? And you are right on Groenewegen, hewill be my star in a few years, though he will require some training.
Great looking at the roster photo and seeing all that green in my mountain section (and seeing a guy named Newton), it just makes me happy.
