kumazan wrote:
Yeah, only 20 as this is mountain stage. The green jersey fight is finished, at this point Gilbert has as much chance of winning the green as I do.
You have a pretty good shot then... I don't think it's settled yet... Cavendish is by far the fastest, but there aren't that many points for him to gather...
Today he can get 10pts at most, while Gilbert can get 25 or so.
On stage 14 Gilbert can put on massive pressure, and Cav could easily be dropped over the Cat 2 climb already, so Gilbert could get 15-20 there.
Stage 15 is probably for Mark, but Gilbert could lose "only" 25pts on Cav there.
On stage 16 Gilbert could be in the winning battle
Same goes for stage 17
Stage 18 will give Cavendish some points on Gilbert
On stage 19 Gilbert could get 15points on Cavendish from the intermediate. ATLEAST!
And ofcourse Mark got the best chance on Le Champs-Elysees.
But overall I wouldn't write off Gilbert just yet... the next two stages will decide whether or not he is in the zone though...
kumazan wrote:
Yeah, only 20 as this is mountain stage. The green jersey fight is finished, at this point Gilbert has as much chance of winning the green as I do.
You have a pretty good shot then... I don't think it's settled yet... Cavendish is by far the fastest, but there aren't that many points for him to gather...
Today he can get 10pts at most, while Gilbert can get 25 or so.
On stage 14 Gilbert can put on massive pressure, and Cav could easily be dropped over the Cat 2 climb already, so Gilbert could get 15-20 there.
Stage 15 is probably for Mark, but Gilbert could lose "only" 25pts on Cav there.
On stage 16 Gilbert could be in the winning battle
Same goes for stage 17
Stage 18 will give Cavendish some points on Gilbert
On stage 19 Gilbert could get 15points on Cavendish from the intermediate. ATLEAST!
And ofcourse Mark got the best chance on Le Champs-Elysees.
But overall I wouldn't write off Gilbert just yet... the next two stages will decide whether or not he is in the zone though...
A lot of what youre saying requires Gilbert to have a pretty perfect rest of the race - being allowed in any break he wants to, and having no break winning on some of the stages that traditionally, a break wins on. (Be it stage finish, or intermediate sprints, which the break has always won so far).
Also, on the last 3 sprint stages, Cavendish on average has gained over 40 points on Gilbert on each stage. So not only do you need Gilbert do do amazingly well - not forgetting also that he looks set to put plenty of effort in on stages where he doesnt make a gain, such as yesterday - but you also need Cavendish to perform under par, which Cavendish certainly hasnt been doing so far.
Rojas is the more interesting challenge. In the last 3 sprint stages he averages a loss to Cav of about 22/23 - yet on one of those 3 stages, he only lost 6 points. He hasnt done so well on the flatter sprints that Montpelier and Paris are, but if he does better on them, and makes use of his own ability on the hills, I see him as more of a threat to Cavendish - but only if he does better at limiting his losses on the 2 remaining 'Cavendish' stages.
In previous years, when they didnt care about intermediate sprints, HTC made no effort to chase down Hushovd when he went on his moves. This year. with Martin now out of his optimistic GC hopes, it would surprise me if they dont look to chase down any breakaway moves that develop with Gilbert or Rojas involved.
