|
2010 Tour de France - Shades of '66?
|
| Cordelier |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:25
|
Under 23
Posts: 60
Joined: 24-07-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
CrueTrue wrote: Hah, I knew it  So far, all you've been saying can be traced back to what Liggett said during the Tour. When Armstrong was dropped, he was a good team mate for Contador for not 'attacking'. When Armstrong attacked, he was back at his old level, destroying the field, etc. Armstrong just couldn't do anything wrong.
What I'm saying is that Armstrong had a free role. He didn't work for Contador at any point - yes, he 'stayed' back, but that was probably more a case of Armstrong not being able to follow than him wanting to be "a good team mate".
And that's also my point when it comes to analysing the 2010 race. Armstrong wasn't strong enough in 2009 - especially not in the first weeks where he can thank Klöden for not being totally dropped and out of the GC:
Saying that Contador has "no chance to win", is just ... weird. Contador pretty much did it by himself during the 2009 Tour. He didn't use his team to reel in Andy Schleck - he attacked before Andy, except on Mont Ventoux where he countered him. Contador has proved that even without full support, he's (too) strong.
You also hint that Andy Schleck has worse chances than Armstrong, because he's not the best time tirallist - can I please remind you that even with that downside, A. Schleck ended 2nd in this year's Tour? Also keep i mind that Armstrong is very, very far from previous years' dominating in the time trials. A. Schleck was only 15 seconds slower than Army in the last time trial of TdF 09.
And in addition to those riders, many of the riders who did well at the 09 Tour are young guys who're still improving. An injury-free Robert Gesink - in a duo with Menchov - is scary. A trio of Nibali, Pellizotti and Basso is scary.
I can give you one thing, though: Valverde won't do better than Armstrong in the '10 Tour - he'll be out, suspended 
Well, what can I say? We were obviously watching different races Crue.... it seemed to me that Armstrong was doing his share to protect Contador - when Contador was shadowing Andy, Armstrong was shadowing Frank.
True enough, Andy did finish 2nd - but that was because he was the best rider on the second-best team. I submit that even if Contador had crashed out, Astana was so dominant in controlling the peloton that whoever led the team - be it Armstrong, Leipheimer (had he not been injured), or Klöden - would have beaten Schleck.
Like I've said, I fully agree Contador is the strongest rider in the world - but that's not going to be enough if he's still on Astana next year. He's just going to get swamped by the better teams who will be able to throw attack after attack at him and wear him down until he eventually breaks. He's going to be in the same situation that Cadel Evans has been with Lotto the last 3 years - a giant among dwarves.
The Tour is always won by a rider on the top team. It's more important you have the best team than that you are the best rider in the field. I think next year, Radio Shack is going to be that team - maybe not so dominant as Astana was last year, but still better than Saxobank will be... and waaaaaay better than Astana will be. The only team that could challenge them is a Caisse d'Epargne with Contador. |
| |
|
|
| CrueTrue |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:29
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 29989
Joined: 20-10-2006
PCM$: 200.00
|
I hope that you're here in July next year |
| |
|
|
| Cordelier |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:32
|
Under 23
Posts: 60
Joined: 24-07-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
Deadpool wrote: You do realize I am taking the teams they ride for into account with those rankings...
Also as Mike said, its clear you listen to Ligget, who i detest (as my quote which Guido Mukk references in his signature makes clear)
Well, we obviously disagree about Liggett - I think he's a talking encyclopedia of cycling. He's been doing Tour commenatry since Eddy Merckx was tearing up stages - and he's seen it all. It's hard to argue with that kind of experience.
Do you really think Contador with Vinokourov and a bunch of anonymous Kazakhs is the best team out there? Personally, I don't even think he's even going to be in the Tour.... defending champion or not. Astana isn't going to get invited and they're not going to let him go. |
| |
|
|
| kumazan |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:32
|
Team Leader
Posts: 6662
Joined: 02-07-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
I agree that Lance won't win the Tour again, but he can make a top ten next year, imo. Who can actually beat Lance, taking into account the super-team he'll have for the next Tour? AC, Schlecks, Gesink, Nibali and Kreuziger (not sure about these two) and... Wiggins?, Evans? They are better than Lance, but not by much, and I have my doubts on Wiggo. Samuel? Maybe, he's a little inconsistent though. But still a top 10 is attainable to Lance.
About the Valverde's bad day, huh, I let that to isso, he explained it before better than I could. But he'll have a bad day: the day he'll be finally banned |
| |
|
|
| Cordelier |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:33
|
Under 23
Posts: 60
Joined: 24-07-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
CrueTrue wrote:
I hope that you're here in July next year
Ohhhh... I'll be here. I wouldn't miss this for the world. |
| |
|
|
| doddy13 |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:34
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7891
Joined: 04-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
tee-hee Army fanboy-ism.
Don't worry isso will be visitng after work tonight, i've alerted him.
Anyway, Contador WILL win the tour next year, he's the best individual rider, his team was against him this year, and still won. To say there was teamwork, well i've never laughed so much on a cycling thread before. I hate Contador, but i felt very sorry for him this July, and saying there was teamwork in that Astana team just laughable,.
And Schleck had team support and came second, why? Because he couldn't follow Contador's attacks. Could he follow Lance's yep. Could Lance follow Andy's nope, heck he couldn't follow Wiggins' attacks, and he wasn't very confident.
So, go watch some more Ligget commentary and go report back your findings. Meanwhile like Mike says, stick around next July, should be a blast.
There's no point slapping a schleck - Sean Kelly on "Who needs a slap"
|
| |
|
|
| ursul |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:45
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1320
Joined: 15-05-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
doddy13 wrote:
Anyway, Contador WILL win the tour next year, he's the best individual rider, his team was against him this year, and still won. To say there was teamwork, well i've never laughed so much on a cycling thread before. I hate Contador, but i felt very sorry for him this July, and saying there was teamwork in that Astana team just laughable,.
.
It depend, if he fell, he have a flat, or if he race Giro.
and you need to remember paris-nice
When Nothing goes rigth, go left...
|
| |
|
|
| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:47
|
Team Manager
Posts: 33046
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
ursul wrote:
It depend, if he fell, he have a flat,
Could happen to anyone, and would have to be unlucky to have that cost a race.
ursul wrote:
or if he race Giro.
He wont
ursul wrote:
and you need to remember paris-nice
Unlikely to be repeated
|
| |
|
|
| markene2 |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:48
|
Domestique
Posts: 419
Joined: 22-06-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Personaly Lance did a good ride the second half of the tour. Mount Ventoux he rode superb i would say. Protected his 3rd position. It's bullshit that he wont even get in the top 10. He will probably get a 2rd - 5th place.
But right now no one can beat Contador. He is the strongest climber. (though i am no fan of him.) Nibali will be dangerous. He will be aiming for a top 5 result. But its also wrong that Contador won it all by himself. The Astana team rode their nuts off to work for Conta. I dont think he could have won it without Astana.
And it will also be interesting to see Andy and Frank next year. They are the only one that can chalenge Contador. (right now)
Edited by markene2 on 03-11-2009 16:49
|
| |
|
|
| CrueTrue |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:53
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 29989
Joined: 20-10-2006
PCM$: 200.00
|
Just out of curiosity: Who said that Armstrong wouldn't be able to do a top-10 in 2010? Of course he will. A top 5 is likely too, and with a bit of luck, top 3, although I'd still say that this is highly unlikely.
Edited by CrueTrue on 03-11-2009 17:14
|
| |
|
|
| markene2 |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:56
|
Domestique
Posts: 419
Joined: 22-06-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
My bad. Thought it was here somwhere  |
| |
|
|
| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 17:07
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
| IP: None |
|
|
| kumazan |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:57
|
Team Leader
Posts: 6662
Joined: 02-07-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
CrueTrue wrote:
Just out of curiosity: Who said that Armstrong wouldn't be able to do a top-10 in 2010? Of course he will. A top 5 is likely to, and with a bit of luck, top 3, although I'd still say that this is highly unlikely.
doddy said that, and for him was my response, but while I was typing a bunch of posts appeared 
I agree with you, but I wouldn't say that a top 5 is very likely for Lance. |
| |
|
|
| facmanpob |
Posted on 03-11-2009 17:32
|
Domestique
Posts: 426
Joined: 29-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
doddy13 wrote:
And Schleck had team support and came second, why? Because he couldn't follow Contador's attacks. Could he follow Lance's yep. Could Lance follow Andy's nope, heck he couldn't follow Wiggins' attacks, and he wasn't very confident.
I just did a quick analysis of the Tour from a Contador vs Schleck POV
Andy Schleck lost 4' 11" overall on Contador
He lost 1' 04" on two mountain stages - 7 and 15 (Arcalis and Verbier)
He lost 40" in the TTT
He lost 2' 27" in two ITT (1 and 18)
If you were Andy Schleck, where would you concentrate your training? ME, I'd work on Time Trialling, because to lose 2 1/2 minutes on your main rival in only 55km of ITT is shocking for a potential Tour winner.
That's why Contador can win next year's tour without a strong team - he is a much better time trialist! |
| |
|
|
| doddy13 |
Posted on 03-11-2009 17:33
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7891
Joined: 04-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
i never mentioned Schleck winning, nor him time trialing
But yeah, it's kinda universally known Schleck isn't the best time trialler.
There's no point slapping a schleck - Sean Kelly on "Who needs a slap"
|
| |
|
|
| ANFreeman |
Posted on 03-11-2009 17:39
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1019
Joined: 11-05-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
It's funny how much this thread has digressed from the original topic...
But yeah, I think it's safe to say that the RadioShack team will be able to follow Contador, the Schlecks and any other main contenders, but the chance of them getting away is pretty unlikely. They'll win the TTT if there is one next year (I think it's safe to assume there will be, but I remember my dad saying something about there not bein' a TT. I ignored him, as ,like Armstrong, he's over the hill and perhaps a little deluded...) and, even if Contador or Schlecks have a poor team, they won't make enough time in order to feel safe in the mountains, where they'll be quite unlikely to make any time.
Also, strange to see Wiggins not being mentioned. Maybe, as a brit, I'm a bit biased, but I think if he can repeat his performance, he'll be another one to give Lance some "trouble..." by which I, of course, mean someone else he'll be unable to follow.
Ps. I'd like to apologise if anything I said was factually wrong or impossible. I don't keep up with the news much, haha. |
| |
|
|
| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 03-11-2009 17:43
|
Team Manager
Posts: 33046
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
ANFreeman wrote:
It's funny how much this thread has digressed from the original topic...
But yeah, I think it's safe to say that the RadioShack team will be able to follow Contador, the Schlecks and any other main contenders, but the chance of them getting away is pretty unlikely. They'll win the TTT if there is one next year (I think it's safe to assume there will be, but I remember my dad saying something about there not bein' a TT. I ignored him, as ,like Armstrong, he's over the hill and perhaps a little deluded...) and, even if Contador or Schlecks have a poor team, they won't make enough time in order to feel safe in the mountains, where they'll be quite unlikely to make any time.
So the 2 best climbers in the Tour are unlikely to gain any time in the mountains? Right....
And theres no TTT
|
| |
|
|
| Bosskardo |
Posted on 03-11-2009 17:47
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1559
Joined: 07-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
SportingNonsense wrote:
So the 2 best climbers in the Tour are unlikely to gain any time in the mountains? Right....
And theres no TTT
No need to answer him if he even doesn't know the Tour route.
|
| |
|
|
| issoisso |
Posted on 03-11-2009 18:39
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 22918
Joined: 08-02-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
It's funny to read what this guy writes. He's just like Phil Ligget: knows barely anything about the sport, constantly says outlandish things that have no basis in reality and has his head far, faaaaar up Lance's ass 
Nice to have you on the forum Phil. You're extremely quotable
(What else can I say about a guy who makes awful awful errors in his PRE-WRITTEN COMMENTARY IN PUBLISHED CYCLING DVDs. Seriously, if someone makes gross errors in something that isn't thought up and said in the spur of the moment, that's a whole new level of awful)
The preceding post is ISSO 9001 certified
"I love him, I think he's great. He's transformed the sport in so many ways. Every person in cycling has benefitted from Lance Armstrong, perhaps not financially but in some sense" - Bradley Wiggins on Lance Armstrong
|
| |
|
|
| markene2 |
Posted on 03-11-2009 19:18
|
Domestique
Posts: 419
Joined: 22-06-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
issoisso pwns the newbies |
| |
|
|
| Thrige |
Posted on 03-11-2009 19:18
|
Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 808
Joined: 17-11-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
issoisso wrote:
It's funny to read what this guy writes. He's just like Phil Ligget: knows barely anything about the sport, constantly says outlandish things that have no basis in reality and has his head far, faaaaar up Lance's ass
Nice to have you on the forum Phil. You're extremely quotable
(What else can I say about a guy who makes awful awful errors in his PRE-WRITTEN COMMENTARY IN PUBLISHED CYCLING DVDs. Seriously, if someone makes gross errors in something that isn't thought up and said in the spur of the moment, that's a whole new level of awful)
Jesus Christ xD Don't know this guy, but he sounds completely incompetent |
| |
|
