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Giro d'Italia Preview and Discussion Thread
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-02-2012 22:35
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SportingNonsense wrote:
Climbers arent going to get any cheaper. Crashes will always happen, and yet climbers will still be the riders scoring the most points in many of the big races.
Maybe they are, but this season it seems much more random than earlier imo. Neither of my climbers are performing this season due to crashes and splits. I think the better way to go is to have a decent amount of subtop climbers whom can become top 10 but not go for the win, and then have 2 or 3 of them in the stage races rather than one strong captain. Both Contador, Serpa and Fothen have been useless for me this season, and they cost about 1/3 of my budget I think.
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| fenian_1234 |
Posted on 04-02-2012 13:01
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I think the problem with Contador and Fothen is that they'll need a big dose of luck to win anything due to the strength of the competition they're up against.
Serpa is not a PT leader and can only really aim to sneak a few top 10's here and there.
Obviously, though, crashes really don't help at all and you've been v. unlucky recently.
Still, whatever else happens this season, you have that 1-2 at MSR. |
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| p3druh |
Posted on 04-02-2012 13:11
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Are you saying Fothen's TdF win was a fluke? Please... I mean, what's lucky about winning a 21-stage long race by 2 seconds with the best and dominant rider crashing and losing tons of time? 
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| SotD |
Posted on 04-02-2012 14:55
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fenian_1234 wrote:
I think the problem with Contador and Fothen is that they'll need a big dose of luck to win anything due to the strength of the competition they're up against.
Serpa is not a PT leader and can only really aim to sneak a few top 10's here and there.
Obviously, though, crashes really don't help at all and you've been v. unlucky recently.
Still, whatever else happens this season, you have that 1-2 at MSR.
Yeah but I can't save the season on one lucky result. And to be fair I had 2 of the main favorites for the race. Pozzato have won the race before, so it wasn't all that unlikely that I would win the race. It was unlikely that I got the 1-2, but I would easily have given that up if it meant that my leaders wouldn't crash out of all other races.
The Stage races for me so far this season:
Tour of Qatar - Getting 5th in the TTT, good start. Stage 2, split. "the worst affected being i1215.photobucket.com/albums/cc512/ANFreeman/Jersey%20Sprites/festina.png Festina". We don't lose all that much here, as we raced shitty anyway.
Tour of Oman - Stage 4. José Serpa caught out, losing 2'23". Serpa finishes in 12th 3'51" down. Deducting the time lost he would have been 3rd.
Tirreno-Adriatico - Diego Ulissi starts out by being 3rd. Stage 2 he loses 4'09" due to splits and crashes. Ulissi finishes in 8th 6'22" down. Deducting the time lost he would have been 5th.
Paris - Nice - Filippo Pozzato being one of the main favorites. Crashes in stage 3 and loses time and time and time.
Vuelta al Pais Vasco - Diego Ulissi crashes losing 8'08" in the first stage. Filippo Pozzato crashes in stage 2 losing 2'42". Both are injured.
Tour of Romandie - Both Serpa and Contador crashes/loses time on stage 3. 4'23" to be exact. Alberto Contador finishes in 6th 2'22" down. He would have won the race. José Serpa ends in 22nd 6'47" down. He would have been 6th.
Giro d'Italia - Markus Fothen misses a split, losing time. Diego Ulissi crashes among with 3 others. The following stage Markus Fothen crashes and withdraws.
So far this season I have had the following Stage races without any bad luck: Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and Vuelta a la Region de Murcia. The latter I didn't have any riders suitable for.
It has been one long hurting way through the races I should have been performing well at. One lucky result doesn't make up for all that lost ground.
EDIT: And I'm not saying that my riders should win the races they attend, but I could be without all those lame crashings always coming my way.
Edited by SotD on 04-02-2012 14:57
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| mb2612 |
Posted on 04-02-2012 15:29
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Not a good stage at all for me, but hopefully it won't make too much of a difference to the back end of the top ten.
 [url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182] Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
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| Kami |
Posted on 04-02-2012 15:29
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I'm still not ruling Schleck out completely, so the 9 seconds isn't optimal (although i gained 8 on yesterday's stage). The good thing is the 50+ seconds on Sella though.
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| CountArach |
Posted on 04-02-2012 15:33
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Kami wrote:
I'm still not ruling Schleck out completely, so the 9 seconds isn't optimal (although i gained 8 on yesterday's stage). The good thing is the 50+ seconds on Sella though.
Absolutely, if Sella loses the Giro by under a minute, it can honestly be said that it was here that made the difference.
mb2612 wrote:
Not a good stage at all for me, but hopefully it won't make too much of a difference to the back end of the top ten.
From 5th-14th is not a huge gap, and there are a couple in there, like Ponzi, who I suspect will fall drastically once the real mountains start. I personally expect Arroyo to be around 9th-10th.
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| Smowz |
Posted on 04-02-2012 16:00
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Sella is under pressure here. Will he reap his revenge on Crostis/Zoncalon? Not sure he has it in him really no shame for Ricco losing a paltry 9 seconds to Schleck there either.
Nice win for Vespa, their race is beginning to turn into a really good one for them.
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| fenian_1234 |
Posted on 04-02-2012 16:44
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That is the number one thing that I wanted for Vespa out of this race! Great to see the ageing Quinziato take that. Gets himself a contract for next season as long as he's not too greedy.
Denies Colombia some vital points though - as last minute entries they are having quite an active race.
Pozzo also had a good stage - just hope he can wheelsuck Sella up a mountain and get a big gain on Schleck at some stage. Only way I think he can make the podium. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 04-02-2012 16:45
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Stupid breakaway. Another stage win chance blown, and it seems that Schleck would have won the stage today without them.
Still, nice to close the gap to Ricco a little bit just in case Ricco falls apart, and of course, a minute's gain on Sella is a very valuable minute. Unfortunate that Samwel had a bad day though - Top 15 should still be possible with all the mountains to come, but Carrara and Ponzi aside, the gap is opening up from the team leaders on to him.
And curse you Vespa, stealing the teams classification by sticking a min in the break! 
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| Mhaley45 |
Posted on 04-02-2012 18:55
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What a fun race to follow.
Sella's best chance, from this point forward, is to stay in contention and let Ricco and Schleck burn each other out, then Sella has one monster stage and steals the show.
I think Ricco and Schleck are too savy to let Sella steal the Giro away from them. Ricco and Schleck are still worried about Sella, so he will not find his path easy.
Looking at Ricco and Schleck it may come down to the final week to see whose body has held up the best.
fun - Fun- FUN race |
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| Kami |
Posted on 04-02-2012 19:00
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Mhaley45 wrote:
Sella's best chance, from this point forward, is to stay in contention and let Ricco and Schleck burn each other out, then Sella has one monster stage and steals the show.
This is exactly what i'm fearing, especially on stage 16 where it will be so hard to control the peleton.
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| Roman |
Posted on 04-02-2012 20:31
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Solid stage for me, losing only small time here on Denifl, unfortunately more on Pozzovivo. But still 4th place is well within reach.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 05-02-2012 02:48
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We're just past halfway in the Giro, and already Ricco has taken in a ton of ranking points - Cunego's 2010 Giro record of 1462 points could well be under threat, perhaps also Andy Schleck's overall record of 1538 from the 2010 Vuelta. Why? Ricco is already on 519.
Schleck and Sella come next, but on 197 and 175 are hardly close to him. Goss again showing how being the top sprinter in a race always has its advantages with 165 points - although he is missing out somewhat with being behind Ricco and Schleck in the Points Classification.
Stage winners Banos Ballester, Pavarin and Ponzi are the others to have gone past the 100 mark.
| 1 | Riccardo | Ricco | ITA | Bacardi - Ignis | 519 | | 2 | Frank | Schleck | LUX | Vesuvio-Accumalux | 197 | | 3 | Emanuele | Sella | ITA | Webeffect | 175 | | 4 | Matthew | Goss | AUS | Wikipedia | 165 | | 5 | José Antonio | Baños Ballester | ESP | Café de Colombia | 123 | | 6 | Marcello | Pavarin | ITA | Wiggle - San Pellegrino | 121 | | 7 | Simone | Ponzi | ITA | Wiggle - San Pellegrino | 118 | | 8 | Enrico | Franzoi | ITA | Pearl Adidas | 86 | | 9 | Manuel | Quinziato | ITA | Vespa - Aprilia - De Rosa | 73 | | 10 | Sébastien | Rosseler | BEL | Jack Wolfskin | 66 | | 11 | Honorio | Machado | VEN | Café de Colombia | 56 | | 12 | Sergio Luis | Henao Montoya | COL | Milka - Vittel | 48 | | 13 | Nolan | Hoffman | SAF | Nestlé Cycling Team | 47 | | 14 | Steven | Kruijswijk | NED | Team B&O | 45 | | 15 | Rafaâ | Chtioui | TUN | UBS - La Pierre | 45 | | 16 | Guillaume | Levarlet | FRA | Carmeuse - Bouygues Telecom | 44 | | 17 | Stefan | Denifl | AUT | Nestlé Cycling Team | 44 | | 18 | Santo | Anza | ITA | Sony Ericsson | 40 | | 19 | Dominique | Cornu | BEL | Jack Wolfskin | 39 | | 20 | Mauricio | Ardila | COL | Jack Wolfskin | 33 |
4th overall Pozzovivvo only has 21 points - not that it matters for the Wildcard team!
If you transfer these scores to the individual rankings, we see Frank Schleck in 6th with 997 points, just ahead of Simone Ponzi on 996. Ricco meanwhile is already into the Top 10, having started the race 40th.
86 riders have scored points - including the now abandoned Markus Fothen. 20 of the 21 teams have scored points - the unlucky team being Volkswagen-Siemens. Like Vespa, ranking points dont matter to them - but it shows how much of a struggle they are finding their debut Grand Tour with just 3 Top 20 stage placings - a best of 14th having been achieved twice.
Im not looking at overall team totals until the end of the race, but the lowest scoring ProTour team so far looks to be Pendleton's Twicer, only Wiggins has achieved points for them - he has scored 11. More points will undoubtedly come for them - being 5th in the Teams Classification, and with Menchov sat in the GC Top 10. Webeffect also only have one pointscorer, but at least Sella is scoring well. Carmeuse, Nestle, UBS and Warner Bros have so far only been able to rely on 2 scorers.
At the other end of the scale, Vespa and Sony Ericsson have had 8 of their riders score points. For Vespa, it is Passalacqua who is empty handed - while unfortunately for Sony Ericsson their pointless rider will remain that way, Johansson having withdrawn from the race. Festina and Jack Wolfskin are just 2 riders away from having all riders achieve points.
15 teams still have all 9 riders and could theoretically have them all score points by finishing the race, but it seems unlikely that the Giro will enjoy 183 finishers as the quantity of mountains increases. Excluding the control team, there were 163 finishers last year.
Edited by SportingNonsense on 05-02-2012 03:01
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| dave92 |
Posted on 05-02-2012 18:45
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Goss is really proving his worth, but yes the presence of Ricco and Schleck in the points competition is holding him down a little.
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 05-02-2012 19:06
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I'm somewhat disappointed that Rowe hasn't provided Goss any kind of challenge what-so-ever. Still, can't complain with two stage wins.
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| CountArach |
Posted on 06-02-2012 06:56
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So now for the really big nine days of the race - any tips on what will happen on the Grosseglockner? It is the first steep major climb to be faced.
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| Smowz |
Posted on 06-02-2012 08:57
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The following two days look far more difficult. Those days we should get big selections.
My prediction for Glossglockner is the Frank Schleck will start to lose time on Sella, maybe Ricco too.
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| ember |
Posted on 06-02-2012 10:48
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Great racing and reports so far!
In my opinion, Ricco should be more than capable to defend his overall lead, but if Sella gets a great day on Zoncolan, Val di Fassa or Finestre, it's wide open.
Also, I'm cheering for Pozzovivo, he's doing great as a continental rider, hopefully he can shine on the toughest stages. |
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| fenian_1234 |
Posted on 06-02-2012 11:53
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Thanks ember. I tend to think like smowz, that when you take the nationality bonus into the equation, Schleck is going to be under pressure the next couple of days. Look to the Italian riders to shine.
Delighted to see Colombia take another stage win there. The points we get in this race might end up being crucial.
Bit lame to see the same riders attacking again and again - I thought that was one of the things Cya fixed in this version? |
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