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Other Races 2009
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| Deadpool |
Posted on 25-08-2009 22:15
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issoisso wrote:
Deadpool wrote:
Lets just call it the Remmert Wielinga Corollary. Never ever say Young Rider X will win Race X in his career without qualifying the statement with "if he develops to his appeared potential."
If you'll allow me, here's a perfect example:
Imagine a guy who as an espoir wins everything. Everything. Mountains, hills, time trials, worlds. Even Roubaix.
Think of how much Hagen had won by May of this year when he was winning his Giro stage. By that point, this guy I'm talking about was finishing the Giro 3rd overall.
This year he finished the Giro 15th and the Tour 41st and hasn't won a race in forever.
You can never. ever. ever. ever. ever. ever. EVER. predict how a rider will develop.
That is a great example, although I still feel Popovych is destined for a GT victory in a really off-year. My guess would be the Vuelta in 2013, when he'll be 33 and all the big name riders will be at the 100th Tour (which I think Prudhomme is going to go insane with). That is however, still a massive longshot. |
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| ruben |
Posted on 25-08-2009 22:31
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2 at what Isso says.
Ofcourse there are talents who do make it and who keep being superstars. But there's more no's than yesses.
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| chrica04 |
Posted on 26-08-2009 00:14
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ruben wrote:
After today, Hagen has... 1300+ CQ points 
Which means he is the 4th best rider of this year so far, only Contador, Cavendish and Valverde have accumulated more CQ points...
And @Kurtin the Hagen fan.
WRONG about type 2 fans.
Dekker, at age 22 (same age as Hagen now), had already won the Tirreno Adriatico AND the Tour de Romandie, plus top 6 in 3 hilly classics, plus numeroous other wins top 10's/good results.
And I thought he was a sure thing to win this and that and this.
WRONG.
You never know, not even with Hagen, you can say what you want but cycling is unpredictable as hell. You can't say he will win hilly classics or cobble classics or other small tours or whatever, you can't even say there is a big chance of that. Who knows?
Also, I would like to point out, that in the Ardennes stage Hagen was definately NOT strong. On the hardest climbs he was in great difficulty. And not by any good ardennes rider, but by f*cking Joost Posthuma. Joost Posthuma, not Valverde or Schleck, but Joost Posthuma. Also guys like Greg van Avermaet and Johan Vansummeren jumped away at that point, where Hagen was dropping back to the end of the pursuing group.
Just keep that in mind before declaring he will win hilly classics and this and that. Tehre are no certainties.
Ruben, I have never had problems with you like others....but you can't bring Dekker in here. Who knows how long he was doping while winning those races. |
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| Deadpool |
Posted on 26-08-2009 00:50
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Please chrica, just back off, don't get into that. Ruben's already had enough problems with people sticking the Dekker thing in his face. |
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| chrica04 |
Posted on 26-08-2009 01:24
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Deadpool wrote:
Please chrica, just back off, don't get into that. Ruben's already had enough problems with people sticking the Dekker thing in his face.
Sorry man. Ruben....no worries, everyone has opinions! |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 21:24
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| KurtinSC |
Posted on 26-08-2009 13:04
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ruben wrote:
Well I know it's impossible to put KurtinSC or other 'type 2 fans' of the certainity idea.
Because I've been like that for years. But countless dissapointments or failed talents (whom I knew sure of would be great, like Popovych, Dekker, Giling, Grabovsky, etc) later, I know there are no certainties.
I just hope riders I like and did well in the past do well, and always repeat that. But I never never never will say anymore rider x will win this or that in the future. Or even will have a big chance of winning. We'll see. If you say it like this: "Rider X will do great here and there IF he keeps developing" than you can't go wrong 
the bold part is important
Well, I never really thought of myself as a "fan" of Boasson Hagen. I've just been impressed by his progression this year and think it likely that he keeps progressing (for whatever that's worth).
I do find it interesting that on this board people are very quick to attack others who predict development in some riders while doing the same with their favorites. Some of the "anti-Hagen" crowd were big proponents of Cav in 2007 (when he hadn't beaten any elite sprinters yet), and some of the "pro-Hagen" guys now were anti Cav in 2007.
Some of this criticism seems very targeted for some reason. (okay... I know the reason... national loyalty for the most part).
Obviously, we don't know how anyone will develop. But it's a fun thing to talk about. And if we're guessing which guys will continue to develop well, people like Boassan Hagen, Gesink or Dekker before the drug stuff seem like good bets. Will they all? Of course not. But Hagen turning into a good hilly classics rider seems like less of a stretch then Wiggins finishing top 5 at the Tour did a year ago. I don't see that sort of discussion (or thinking Gesink could win a GT or Dekker pre-doping) as being that unrealistic.
Right now, Hagen seems like a very good flat rider and decent sprinter who can get over hills well. Thinking he can win a race like Milano-Sanremo seems to make sense... it seems suited toward his riding ability... without any real development.
San Sebastian is similar is a bit hillier, but might be in his current range. Lombardia might be as well. The Ardennes right now are not... and may never be. But he's shown a lot of improvement in the hills so far so I don't see why you discount it immediately either.
For me, watching riders develop is one of the most fun parts of cycling. Guessing how they'll develop is part of the enjoyment of being a cycling fan. |
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| ruben |
Posted on 26-08-2009 13:22
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Yeah I know that, it's just that there are no certainties. A rider with an awesome season at age 22 can still turn out to be an early peaker (like Popovych).
And a rider who looks like nowhere good enough for world class at the same age, wins big races 5 years later.
Erik Dekker for instance was 30 when he suddenly won 3 tour stages, clasica san sebastian and a year later the world cup. Nobody ever could guess that from a rider who won little tours like ENECO Tour when it was still smaller (Ronde van Nederland 2.3 on UCI) and other small races (Dekker was kinda like Posthuma right now).
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| mrlol |
Posted on 27-08-2009 22:39
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Stef Clement won the Dutch TT championship with 49 secs to number two, Koos Moerenhout. According to himself, he worked quite hard for this after the Tour, so it isnt a real suprize to him he won.
Too bad we wont see the jersey in Assen next saturday
1 Stef Clement Nederland RAB 00u00'00''
2 Koos Moerenhout Nederland RAB z.t
3 Rick Flens Nederland RAB z.t
4 Joost Posthuma Nederland RAB z.t
5 Maarten Tjallingii Nederland RAB z.t
6 Tom Stamsnijder Nederland RAB z.t
7 Jos van Emden Nederland RAB z.t
8 Niki Terpstra Nederland MRM z.t
9 Kai Reus Nederland RAB z.t
10 Sander Oostlander Nederland EL2 z.t
11 Peter van Agtmaal Nederland EL2 z.t
12 Arno van der Zwet Nederland EL2 z.t
13 Maint Berkenbosch Nederland CJP z.t
14 Erik van Lakerveld Nederland EL2 z.t
15 Levi Heimans Nederland EL2 z.t |
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| issoisso |
Posted on 28-08-2009 11:21
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mrlol wrote:
Stef Clement won the Dutch TT championship with 49 secs to number two, Koos Moerenhout. According to himself, he worked quite hard for this after the Tour, so it isnt a real suprize to him he won.
Too bad we wont see the jersey in Assen next saturday
1 Stef Clement Nederland RAB 00u00'00''
2 Koos Moerenhout Nederland RAB z.t
3 Rick Flens Nederland RAB z.t
4 Joost Posthuma Nederland RAB z.t
5 Maarten Tjallingii Nederland RAB z.t
6 Tom Stamsnijder Nederland RAB z.t
7 Jos van Emden Nederland RAB z.t
8 Niki Terpstra Nederland MRM z.t
9 Kai Reus Nederland RAB z.t
10 Sander Oostlander Nederland EL2 z.t
11 Peter van Agtmaal Nederland EL2 z.t
12 Arno van der Zwet Nederland EL2 z.t
13 Maint Berkenbosch Nederland CJP z.t
14 Erik van Lakerveld Nederland EL2 z.t
15 Levi Heimans Nederland EL2 z.t
Wielinga lost 7 mins on the winner 
The preceding post is ISSO 9001 certified
"I love him, I think he's great. He's transformed the sport in so many ways. Every person in cycling has benefitted from Lance Armstrong, perhaps not financially but in some sense" - Bradley Wiggins on Lance Armstrong
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| mrlol |
Posted on 28-08-2009 11:28
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I wonder why he doesnt have any team atm? |
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 28-08-2009 11:31
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KurtinSC wrote:
ruben wrote:
Blahhhh
Obviously, we don't know how anyone will develop. But it's a fun thing to talk about. And if we're guessing which guys will continue to develop well, people like Boassan Hagen, Gesink or Dekker before the drug stuff seem like good bets. Will they all? Of course not. But Hagen turning into a good hilly classics rider seems like less of a stretch then Wiggins finishing top 5 at the Tour did a year ago. I don't see that sort of discussion (or thinking Gesink could win a GT or Dekker pre-doping) as being that unrealistic.
Right now, Hagen seems like a very good flat rider and decent sprinter who can get over hills well. Thinking he can win a race like Milano-Sanremo seems to make sense... it seems suited toward his riding ability... without any real development.
San Sebastian is similar is a bit hillier, but might be in his current range. Lombardia might be as well. The Ardennes right now are not... and may never be. But he's shown a lot of improvement in the hills so far so I don't see why you discount it immediately either.
For me, watching riders develop is one of the most fun parts of cycling. Guessing how they'll develop is part of the enjoyment of being a cycling fan.
I agree with the general gist of your post, it makes sense, is logically constructed and all that jazz, but for one point. Hagen has shown results on cobbles, flats, time trials, but he has yet to show immense talent on the hills. I don't see how he's shown his "potential" for the Ardennes, so forgive me if I am proven wrong in 4 years time, but unless he looses more weight he won't be winning any Ardennes classics. And I'd vouch a small dog on that.
[url=cleavercycling.co.uk]  [/url] |
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| kadel |
Posted on 28-08-2009 11:33
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yesyes and you can keep telling us how he is not really good and he can keep winning. Doesn't matter. |
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 28-08-2009 11:40
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Where have I ever said he's not good? I just said he's not Ardennes Classic win good.
Kadel, you are possibly the shittest reader I have ever known. If you haven't got anything constructive to say in a discussion, just butt the fuck out.
[url=cleavercycling.co.uk] [/url] |
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| niconico |
Posted on 28-08-2009 11:50
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issoisso wrote:
mrlol wrote:
Stef Clement won the Dutch TT championship with 49 secs to number two, Koos Moerenhout. According to himself, he worked quite hard for this after the Tour, so it isnt a real suprize to him he won.
Too bad we wont see the jersey in Assen next saturday
1 Stef Clement Nederland RAB 00u00'00''
2 Koos Moerenhout Nederland RAB z.t
3 Rick Flens Nederland RAB z.t
4 Joost Posthuma Nederland RAB z.t
5 Maarten Tjallingii Nederland RAB z.t
6 Tom Stamsnijder Nederland RAB z.t
7 Jos van Emden Nederland RAB z.t
8 Niki Terpstra Nederland MRM z.t
9 Kai Reus Nederland RAB z.t
10 Sander Oostlander Nederland EL2 z.t
11 Peter van Agtmaal Nederland EL2 z.t
12 Arno van der Zwet Nederland EL2 z.t
13 Maint Berkenbosch Nederland CJP z.t
14 Erik van Lakerveld Nederland EL2 z.t
15 Levi Heimans Nederland EL2 z.t
Wielinga lost 7 mins on the winner
Didn't he retire at one point?
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| KurtinSC |
Posted on 28-08-2009 12:49
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rjc_43 wrote:
KurtinSC wrote:
ruben wrote:
Blahhhh
Obviously, we don't know how anyone will develop. But it's a fun thing to talk about. And if we're guessing which guys will continue to develop well, people like Boassan Hagen, Gesink or Dekker before the drug stuff seem like good bets. Will they all? Of course not. But Hagen turning into a good hilly classics rider seems like less of a stretch then Wiggins finishing top 5 at the Tour did a year ago. I don't see that sort of discussion (or thinking Gesink could win a GT or Dekker pre-doping) as being that unrealistic.
Right now, Hagen seems like a very good flat rider and decent sprinter who can get over hills well. Thinking he can win a race like Milano-Sanremo seems to make sense... it seems suited toward his riding ability... without any real development.
San Sebastian is similar is a bit hillier, but might be in his current range. Lombardia might be as well. The Ardennes right now are not... and may never be. But he's shown a lot of improvement in the hills so far so I don't see why you discount it immediately either.
For me, watching riders develop is one of the most fun parts of cycling. Guessing how they'll develop is part of the enjoyment of being a cycling fan.
I agree with the general gist of your post, it makes sense, is logically constructed and all that jazz, but for one point. Hagen has shown results on cobbles, flats, time trials, but he has yet to show immense talent on the hills. I don't see how he's shown his "potential" for the Ardennes, so forgive me if I am proven wrong in 4 years time, but unless he looses more weight he won't be winning any Ardennes classics. And I'd vouch a small dog on that.
Well, he's shown that he can handle smaller hills... but nothing like the Ardennes yet. And right now I don't think he's a guy who's going to win an uphill finish. But what we've seen in some races is the ability to win stages with hills near the finish but a flat run up to the line. More Milan-Sanremo type races then the Ardennes.
I may be wrong, but it's seemed to me like some of his wins or high finishes have been in stages and races that were quite hilly... not the ardennes by any stretch, but nothing you'd call flat or rolling either. There's a big jump between that and the Ardennes... but as I said the Ardennes are not right now in his current range and may never be. |
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| chrica04 |
Posted on 28-08-2009 13:48
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Yea, maybe not the Ardennes yet. He did win that stage in the Giro that was quite hilly adding to his ability as a Puncheur. I also think that sometimes, the tougher the finish (rain, tight corner, very technical) suits his abilities.
Plus it helps when you can TT like a beast! I think he will be great for races with TT's and stages like Eneco, Poland. But I think others have stated this as well. |
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 28-08-2009 14:01
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The problem with using Milan San Remo as an example race he could win doesn't mean he's anything special on hills. As everyone used to say, Cavendish can't climb for toffee, yet he managed to improve enough to get over and win. I certainly do think Hagen could win an even bigger race than Gent Wevelgem, and yes, MSR is well within his reach if he displays some of his Giro form early season, but as to that, and the Giro stages, showing his hill ability, I'm less inclinded to believe he'll do anything spectacularily big on very very hilly courses.
As chrica mentions, the tougher the race - weather, road surface, etc , wise, the better he seems to do.
Even if he stays at this same level for the rest of his career, no one could knock what he's done so far, and I'm certainly not about to do that. Ever.
[url=cleavercycling.co.uk] [/url] |
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| issoisso |
Posted on 28-08-2009 14:20
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rjc_43 wrote:
Where have I ever said he's not good? I just said he's not Ardennes Classic win good.
Kadel, you are possibly the shittest reader I have ever known. If you haven't got anything constructive to say in a discussion, just butt the fuck out.
You weren't around when that guy joined the forum, so let me show you just how pointless it is to pay him any attention. In his mind:
Muslim = Terrorist
non-Christian = Evil
Nihilism = Evil
Communism = Evil
Socialism = Evil
The preceding post is ISSO 9001 certified
"I love him, I think he's great. He's transformed the sport in so many ways. Every person in cycling has benefitted from Lance Armstrong, perhaps not financially but in some sense" - Bradley Wiggins on Lance Armstrong
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| kadel |
Posted on 28-08-2009 14:35
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Domestique
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rjc_43 wrote:
Where have I ever said he's not good? I just said he's not Ardennes Classic win good.
Kadel, you are possibly the shittest reader I have ever known. If you haven't got anything constructive to say in a discussion, just butt the fuck out.
Did I quote you? You must be the most shitty reader I ever saw. It was a general reply to the thread. |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 28-08-2009 14:57
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look man you replied after rjc's post and you obviously were refering to rjc's argument don't embarass yourself
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