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PCM.daily Stat Discussion
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 19-09-2020 21:57
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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AiZaK wrote:
Imo Nibali 78 in Hills, Carapaz 77 in Hills and Froome 76 in Hills
At most Nibali would be 77 hills, remember he is past his best and keeps 80 because he did finish 2nd in the Giro. Froome is 75 to try and demonstrate his weak form at the moment and in many DB's is actually a 79 mtn. Carapaz though could be 77 hill and the hill is indeed important especially on shorter climbs.
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| purepasd |
Posted on 19-09-2020 22:36
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Domestique
Posts: 541
Joined: 23-01-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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I think Carapaz deserves 81 MO, he won the Giro in big fashion just last year and was supposed to peak for it again this year, hence the suboptimal fitness form for him in this tour, though almost winning the KOM anyway. |
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 19-09-2020 22:40
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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And Froome just now I would give him 79 in Mountain. His year is too bad |
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| Ho0liGaN |
Posted on 20-09-2020 00:48
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Junior Rider
Posts: 42
Joined: 30-06-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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Tafiolmo wrote:
These are the provisional climbing stats for the next update and have listed just some of the main climbers in the Tour with mtn and hill followed by REC. Obviously all the other stats not listed such as ACC, RES and TT etc have a big impact too but have just listed these three below.
Pogacar 82/78 (79)
Roglic 82/78 (75)
Pinot 82/77 (68)
Bernal 82/76 (79)
Landa 81/77 (81)
Lopez 81/77 (76)
Porte 81/77 (73)
Quintana 81/76 (75)
Kuss 81/75 (75)
Uran 80/78 (79)
A.Yates 80/78 (71)
Bardet 80/78 (76)
Dumoulin 80/77 (78)
Mas 80/77 (77)
Martin 79/78 (76)
Valverde 78/80 (75)
WVA 75/76 (76)
Listing others here that are not at the Tour or in the case of Buchmann forgot to add him to the list:
S.Yates 81/78 (73)
Buchmann 81/77 (77) acc 70 and 74 res
Steve K 81/76 (80)
Carapaz 80/77 (79) Based on his Giro
Nibali 80/76 (82)
Thomas 80/77 (77)
Froome 80/75 (79) We don't really know enough
Fuglsang 79/80 (67)
Bilbao 79/77 (77)
Caruso 78/77 (77)
Think this is a very nice list, and is a fair representation of the world of cycling.
Of course, everyone will have slightly different opinions on certain riders or stats.
I would advise you to run AT LEAST a dozen or so simulations/in-game races. See how results pan out. Getting the REC stat correct is really difficult.
Just had a full tour play through with WVA (78/78(73)) as my leader, just to see how overpowered I made him. And basically right till the last three stages I was in contention to win the tour (within 1 minute of Pogacar, Bernal and Porte) only to lose 2 minutes in the last mountain stage, and another minute in the final hilly timetrial. (mind you, thats with Poga, bernal and porte having 73-74 in TT and WVA 78)
I'll do some more testing myself, I might bump up Pinot to 70REC for instance, as the drop off in daily form really doesn't happen with 73, I was still getting good/decent recovery (what it says on the sheet before you start the stage) and getting ranges between -2 and +2 on the FOTD thing.
I think the thing with REC is, that when you give above 75, it really doesn't differ that much till you get like 80. At least not for the FOTD, it does a bit for the amount of green energy you start the stage with. Once you get real close or below that 70, the difference is pretty big though, you're much more likely to have -2 or -3 day's and you should consider yourself lucky when you'll get a 0 or +1. Conclusion: a REC of 74 or 77 is a much smaller difference than the difference between 74 or 77 MTN.
One thing I would personally change from the list you provided is upping WVA's hill stats, I'm not 100% he'd be able to follow a Alaphilipe in San Remo or beat the guys he did in Strade Bianchi with only 76.
Also, i'll be looking forward to see how you statted the TT and "support" stats, as they are nearly as important in-game |
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| Ho0liGaN |
Posted on 20-09-2020 03:03
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Junior Rider
Posts: 42
Joined: 30-06-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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As I was bored, I took the liberty of doing 10 more simulated tours, this time i've only done the 2020 version, to keep the variance as low as possible. From these 10 sims i've gotten the following results.
| Best By | Average | Highest Placing | Appeared x | | Roglic | 2 | 1 | 8 | | Pogacar | 3,22222222222222 | 1 | 9 | | Lopez | 4,5 | 1 | 6 | | Kruijswijk | 4,71428571428571 | 1 | 7 | | Bernal | 4,85714285714286 | 1 | 7 | | Landa | 5,5 | 3 | 4 | | Tom Dumoulin | 6 | 1 | 10 | | Rigoberto Urán | 7,66666666666667 | 5 | 3 | | S Yates | 9,375 | 3 | 8 | | Kuss | 9,42857142857143 | 4 | 7 | | Froome | 10,2857142857143 | 3 | 7 | | Pinot | 10,2 | 4 | 10 | | Romain Bardet | 10,625 | 3 | 8 | | Nairo Quintana | 11 | 3 | 9 | | Richie Porte | 11,3333333333333 | 5 | 9 | | A Yates | 12,125 | 4 | 8 | | Richard Carapaz | 12,6666666666667 | 8 | 3 | | Geraint Thomas | 13,4 | 8 | 10 | | Mollema | 13,5555555555556 | 9 | 9 | | Vincenzo Nibali | 13,6 | 4 | 10 | | Emanuel Buchmann | 16,6666666666667 | 8 | 9 | | Martin | 17 | 10 | 4 | | Enric Mas | 17,6666666666667 | 15 | 6 | | Fuglsang | 18,3333333333333 | 11 | 6 |
I'm very satisfied by these results. My stats were only a bit different to what you're planning to do. (I've lowered my 83 CLI to 82). Of course I dont exactly know how you're planning to stat TT and the support stats. But REC was thhe same or within 1 of what you were planning.
Perhaps my Porte, Buchmann and Mas are a little low. And I don't really like how high kuss is with 81CLI, but with only 4 results to go off, hard to really give too much value to that. The only one I left out of this sheet is Valverde, He never made top 5 and was usually similar to Mollema, and thats where I want him to be.
Also Carapaz and Uran must have done something wrong, becuase they were only brought 3 times to the tour so take their results with an extra pinch of salt |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-09-2020 08:27
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Pursepad- Yes I'm fully aware of Carapaz being used badly by Ineos and am thinking between 80-81 mtn for him anyway
Aizak- Froome is like a 79 now but as said before we really don't know how he will go and I think with 80/75 he's not going to be a big threat and in my recent Tour de France with these stats he hardly featured that much anyway.
Hooligan- When I was making those REC changes I did think that the differences might need to be greater for them to have an effect so will look to spread out even further and thanks for the stat trials.
Also will be working some on the TT stats as well.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 20-09-2020 08:33
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 20-09-2020 08:38
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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I forgot yesterday, I think WVA must be 78 in hills and you can give him 74 in climbs so he can do good races in mountain stages (like Kwiatkowski last years)
Edited by Tafiolmo on 20-09-2020 10:32
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-09-2020 10:33
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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AiZaK wrote:
I forgot yesterday, I think WVA must be 78 in hills and you can give him 74 in climbs so he can do good races in mountain stages (like Kwiatkowski last years)
Yes he's like Kwiatkowski in the mtn dom role and it seems that most members want him with higher hill anyway.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 06:21
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Bot Agent
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| Forever the Best |
Posted on 20-09-2020 10:55
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3803
Joined: 27-06-2014
PCM$: 400.00
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Buchamnn and Kruiswijk 81 feels a bit high. They were good last year, but the level was not that high imo. Especially seeing them have a higher MO than Nibali, Carapaz and Thomas is just wrong imo. I mean, Nibali was one or two tactical decision(s) away from winning the Giro last year.
Also, Porte should have a higher hill stat.
Posted in another forum after the Puy Mary stage ( credits to roundabout at Cyclignews forum ):
I think Porte historically does well on these shorter effort climbs - Willunga, Malhao, short side of Leysin, Mauselaine, murito in the 2018 TdS.
The user formerly known as 'The Schleck Fan'
Gracias Alberto.
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| Arberg |
Posted on 20-09-2020 11:18
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Lopez 81 in mountain. Porte was stronger except for one stage. |
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| Arberg |
Posted on 20-09-2020 13:46
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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TT stats:
81: Dennis
80: Campenaerts, Evenepoel
79: Pogacar, Van Aert, Küng, Castroviejo
78: T.Martin, Asgreen, Cavagna, Dowsett, Ganna, Dumoulin
77: Froome, Roglic, Thomas, Alaphilippe, Porte |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 20-09-2020 14:06
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Pogacar better than Ganna, Cavagna & Dumoulin? Seriously?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Arberg |
Posted on 20-09-2020 14:19
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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https://www.youtu...hzld_tFedg
https://www.cycli...tle-458762 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 20-09-2020 14:25
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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So that's 1 mountain TT in the last weekend of 3 week GT and 1 national championship (also climbing route) where he beat famous riders like Marko Pavlič and Nik Čemažar?
You know, every now and then I start to think "maybe Arberg isn't that crazy after all", and then you do something like this 
Edited by Ollfardh on 20-09-2020 14:30
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-09-2020 14:26
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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I wouldn't make Pogacar a better TT rider than Roglic and certainly not Dumoulin. Roglic cracked terribly yesterday but is a proven TT specialist but given the fact that Pogacar has beaten Roglic twice in mtn TT he does need to have a stat that is close to Roglic, so beating him will be possible.
To know how good Pogacar is at TT we really need to see him in a long flat TT.
Bear in mind that GT riders usually do well in TT in the final week if their rec is good anyway, so they don't need a TT stat as high as specialist like Dennis, Ganna etc
Will be revising TT for the update too but bear in mind the Worlds is very close by.
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| Arberg |
Posted on 20-09-2020 14:49
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Pogacar was also fastest on the flat and has beaten Roglic twice in a row now  |
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| Arberg |
Posted on 20-09-2020 14:53
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Pogacar 83 in mountain. His ascent on stage 8 and yesterday was out of this world! As well as the fact, he was winning one man over a fantastic team. |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-09-2020 15:29
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Interested to know how many people actually think Pogacar is worth 83 mtn?
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| cio93 |
Posted on 20-09-2020 15:33
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World Champion
Posts: 10845
Joined: 29-10-2007
PCM$: 500.00
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Friendly reminder that there would be a decent chance he's 84mo by the time of the first GTs in a career then. I know you can't factor that in too much, but still.
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| Forever the Best |
Posted on 20-09-2020 15:35
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3803
Joined: 27-06-2014
PCM$: 400.00
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Tafiolmo wrote:
I wouldn't make Pogacar a better TT rider than Roglic and certainly not Dumoulin. Roglic cracked terribly yesterday but is a proven TT specialist but given the fact that Pogacar has beaten Roglic twice in mtn TT he does need to have a stat that is close to Roglic, so beating him will be possible.
To know how good Pogacar is at TT we really need to see him in a long flat TT.
Bear in mind that GT riders usually do well in TT in the final week if their rec is good anyway, so they don't need a TT stat as high as specialist like Dennis, Ganna etc
Will be revising TT for the update too but bear in mind the Worlds is very close by. Pogacar was already 36 seconds or so faster than Roglic in the flat part and his time was similar to Dumoulin on the flat part.
The user formerly known as 'The Schleck Fan'
Gracias Alberto.
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