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La Vuelta a Espana preview and discussion
SotD
Awesome performance form Serpa here, managing to keep Contador in touch and fresh for a final dash. Contador taking some vital time off Intxausti. He will need even more to compete for 2nd though, but this was a very strong stage.

Very sad for Serpa to have lost 10 minutes on yesterdays stage. He is climbing his way with the very best, and could be just outside the top 10 had it not been for the lost time. I'm hoping he can keep on taking a notch into the GC on these stages, and perhaps even make a top 15, but priority 1 must be on having Contador on the podium. Good time on Sella today, which makes Intxausti the strongest competitor at the moment.
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rjc_43
I think it's safe to say that I won't be plugging the Popovych sized gap in my squad next year with another big GC name. Outsiders always give me more satisfaction when they overachieve, rather than a GC rider underachieving.
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p3druh
Wow, Machado is holding up nicely. Nice to see that. If he manages to get a Top-5, it would largely surpass the expectations. No way he keeps up with Intxausti or Madrazo in a 21 stage race but hopefully he manages to keep one of Sella or Valverde behind him.

Too bad Leezer was outside the time limit. It had been awhile since I've had a rider drop out of a GT I think.
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SotD
Looking at the remaining 3 flat stages, I have some slight concerns. There are very few sprinters left, and I really think there could be HUGE gaps for attackers. As far as I can see it these are the sprinters left in the race:

71 Nolan Hoffman Nestlé Cycling Team + 1h28'56
76 Michael Van Stayen Bacardi - Ignis + 1h36'18
99 Dan Holloway Festina - Conec + 2h08'07
102 Jurgen Roelandts Carmeuse - Bouygues Telecom + 2h14'07
112 Maximiliano Richeze UBS - La Pierre + 2h44'45
114 Juan Pablo Forero Milka - Vittel + 2h46'00
120 Mark Cavendish Proximus - Trek + 2h48'33
123 Paride Grillo Sony Ericsson + 2h55'10
124 Tyler Farrar Wikipedia + 3h00'28

From Richeze and downwards the sprinters are even so poor, that they could go out after the next stage. I surely hope they won't so we still have a couple of teams to take advantage from their sprinters. I would love if my team would go for Holloway in those 3 stages, but with no domestiques left it's very doubtful. I guess I have to put my trust in Santander, Bacardi and Carmeuse.
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mb2612
I hope we don't chase on flat stages, as Madrazo will hopefully win the points jersey if the breaks keep getting away.

That was a good stage I guess. At least it was Arroyo who fell and not anyone else, but I hope he's not badly injured. Madrazo does look strongest, which is nice.
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SotD
mb2612 wrote:
I hope we don't chase on flat stages, as Madrazo will hopefully win the points jersey if the breaks keep getting away.

That was a good stage I guess. At least it was Arroyo who fell and not anyone else, but I hope he's not badly injured. Madrazo does look strongest, which is nice.


I think Madrazo will win it no matter what. He might be around 10-15th on the flat stages and definately in the top 3 of all the mountain stages, while the sprinters obviously won't get any points.

So let's make a pact. Please chase down the breakaways so we won't end up with some rider placed around 20th who will win the race, and please let the riders stay on their bikes PCM.
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SportingNonsense
SotD wrote:
mb2612 wrote:
I hope we don't chase on flat stages, as Madrazo will hopefully win the points jersey if the breaks keep getting away.

That was a good stage I guess. At least it was Arroyo who fell and not anyone else, but I hope he's not badly injured. Madrazo does look strongest, which is nice.


I think Madrazo will win it no matter what. He might be around 10-15th on the flat stages and definately in the top 3 of all the mountain stages, while the sprinters obviously won't get any points.

So let's make a pact. Please chase down the breakaways so we won't end up with some rider placed around 20th who will win the race, and please let the riders stay on their bikes PCM.


*looks at current GC*

I think the rider currently in 20th overall should definately be allowed to win the race by a breakaway!

But its never going to happen - breaks dont win by anywhere near that much in PCM
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SotD
I must be mistaken then. Thought I saw some pretty big time gaps, but it's probably just me mistaking it Smile

Hopefully no stupid crashes and splits though. Would be unbearable if I was yet again caught out by my leader.
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mb2612
SotD wrote:
I must be mistaken then. Thought I saw some pretty big time gaps, but it's probably just me mistaking it Smile

Hopefully no stupid crashes and splits though. Would be unbearable if I was yet again caught out by my leader.


I don't think I've ever seen a breakaway rider win a pcm GT so we should be fine on that front, but I seriously fear a stupid crash.
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roturn
Madrazo is super strong.
Santander will get an enormous amount of points of this race. Maybe the highest amount any team gets in a single race this season.
Even after losing Arroyo as high pointer. Wink


Some interesting battles there in the other spots. Everything pretty open now. Fight for the podium and rest of the top 10.
I think Contador looks to strong to lose 2nd but especially the fight for the 3rd will be interesting until the last stage.
 
mb2612
Grin

Now though 3 days of fear on the flats. Also, I just noticed Valls was 15th, which is excellent. And Gonzalo is 23rd, which for a 74 mountain who spends all day on the front is epic. A pity about Arroyo and Lopez Garcia, because then I really could be dominating the Vuelta. Grin

Come on Madrazo, 5 flats stages to go.




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SotD
mb2612 wrote:
Grin

Now though 3 days of fear on the flats. Also, I just noticed Valls was 15th, which is excellent. And Gonzalo is 23rd, which for a 74 mountain who spends all day on the front is epic. A pity about Arroyo and Lopez Garcia, because then I really could be dominating the Vuelta. Grin

Come on Madrazo, 5 flats stages to go.





I have the same fears. Serpa wasn't strong today, but 16th overall is very good. Contador is doing everything right at the moment. Working with Madrazo is by far the best chance to distance Intxausti enough to get 2nd, so I hope that will continue. No point in spending energy to beat Madrazo for a couple of odd-off seconds. Madrazo is the rightful winner of the race, so 2nd would be amazing. All of these stage top 3s is also very nice for the points haul, points competition and the KOM.

Oh and, keep up the good work on the reports. It's amazing stuff.
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SportingNonsense
Terrible.

Iglinski and Samwel were appalling. No excuses, they should never be dropped that early.

Dont quite know how Intxausti is holding onto 3rd place.
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CountArach
A really interesting race to watch if you follow the lower places. Santander should have this in the bag for the win though.
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jph27
mb2612 wrote:
SotD wrote:
I must be mistaken then. Thought I saw some pretty big time gaps, but it's probably just me mistaking it Smile

Hopefully no stupid crashes and splits though. Would be unbearable if I was yet again caught out by my leader.


I don't think I've ever seen a breakaway rider win a pcm GT so we should be fine on that front, but I seriously fear a stupid crash.


I've seen Frederik Kessiakoff win the Tour on PCM09, so it is possible. Pfft

Great reporting, finally got a chance to catch up properly last night. Madrazo is dominating, but still looks like there should be a decent scrap for the smaller places.
 
Pellizotti2
Madrazo really is a cut above the rest. Should be wrapped up by now.
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alexkr00
If Plaza loses that top 10 spot, we are screwed because that would be 3/3 goals failed so far.
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mb2612
alexkr00 wrote:
If Plaza loses that top 10 spot, we are screwed because that would be 3/3 goals failed so far.


I've failled 2 already as well, although the podium in the Vuelta goal should be achievable from here Grin.

After that I need a top ten in the Pro Tour, which doesn't look likely, so I guess I'll only manage 2/5.
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alexkr00
mb2612 wrote:
alexkr00 wrote:
If Plaza loses that top 10 spot, we are screwed because that would be 3/3 goals failed so far.


I've failled 2 already as well, although the podium in the Vuelta goal should be achievable from here Grin.

After that I need a top ten in the Pro Tour, which doesn't look likely, so I guess I'll only manage 2/5.


Actually with the points you'll get here, you'll most likely be in the top 10 of the Pro Tour rankings Wink

Strange thing is that I'm having the worst "goals season" even though the team probably has its best season yet according to the results.
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SotD
My season goals have been fucked up by crashes all year, already lost the Giro Top 10, and definately lost the PT top 3 aswell. I will be lucky to get a top 10 with all those crashes.

I stand a realistic chance at getting 2/5 if I don't crash. Top 10 Vuelta and Tour.
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