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News in February
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| issoisso |
Posted on 26-02-2014 07:18
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Tour de France Champion
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Atlantius wrote:
issoisso wrote:
It's my experience that a world championship that has X written all over it is basically guaranteed to not be won by said person
Copenhagen 2011: Cavendish
Valkenburg 2012: Gilbert
2011 Cavendish was considered the outsider because the sprint was uphill
2012 everyone was mocking Gilbert because he'd done nothing all year
You may recall the first was considered an open race and the 2nd "a shoo-in for Sagan"
The preceding post is ISSO 9001 certified
"I love him, I think he's great. He's transformed the sport in so many ways. Every person in cycling has benefitted from Lance Armstrong, perhaps not financially but in some sense" - Bradley Wiggins on Lance Armstrong
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 26-02-2014 07:24
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World Champion
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Sagan will always have tough job at WC, with Slovakian team not coming even close to likes of spanish,italian or colombian in terms of numbers and especially quality. It would need very good day for him his teammates too. But that course looks perfect indeed for him, but also for other strong sprinters as was mentioned.
And who knows what will happen till September 2015?
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| titleist82 |
Posted on 26-02-2014 08:29
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25 bends in 15 km
it is going to be a last man standing |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 07:18
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 26-02-2014 12:10
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Team Leader
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issoisso wrote:
Atlantius wrote:
issoisso wrote:
It's my experience that a world championship that has X written all over it is basically guaranteed to not be won by said person
Copenhagen 2011: Cavendish
Valkenburg 2012: Gilbert
2011 Cavendish was considered the outsider because the sprint was uphill
2012 everyone was mocking Gilbert because he'd done nothing all year
You may recall the first was considered an open race and the 2nd "a shoo-in for Sagan"
There was never going to be another winner in 2011 when people actually looked at the "hill". I was there and it was obvious that it was never going to be hard enough to challenge any pro cyclists. A thing that was realized by pretty much every single reporter as soon as they came to the site.
The hill got talked up massively mainly because people wanted to believe it was an open race. It never was.
At the start of the 2012 season Gilbert was the massive favourite for the worlds, mid-season he wasn't but after his two stage wins in the Vuelta he was obviously back to being a main favourite.
Sagan was just a case of massive hype. He had no reason to be considered a favourite for that finish and to me the main challenger for Gilbert was always goung to be Purito.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 26-02-2014 12:45
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World Champion
Posts: 14236
Joined: 20-06-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Atlantius wrote:
issoisso wrote:
Atlantius wrote:
issoisso wrote:
It's my experience that a world championship that has X written all over it is basically guaranteed to not be won by said person
Copenhagen 2011: Cavendish
Valkenburg 2012: Gilbert
2011 Cavendish was considered the outsider because the sprint was uphill
2012 everyone was mocking Gilbert because he'd done nothing all year
You may recall the first was considered an open race and the 2nd "a shoo-in for Sagan"
There was never going to be another winner in 2011 when people actually looked at the "hill". I was there and it was obvious that it was never going to be hard enough to challenge any pro cyclists. A thing that was realized by pretty much every single reporter as soon as they came to the site.
The hill got talked up massively mainly because people wanted to believe it was an open race. It never was.
At the start of the 2012 season Gilbert was the massive favourite for the worlds, mid-season he wasn't but after his two stage wins in the Vuelta he was obviously back to being a main favourite.
Sagan was just a case of massive hype. He had no reason to be considered a favourite for that finish and to me the main challenger for Gilbert was always goung to be Purito.
Really? Sagan was not good in the end as he was empty, but über puncher Boasson Hagen got 2nd there and master climber Allan Davis was 6th. Not even mentioning Navardauskas being 8th in the finish...
Purito was 39th...
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 26-02-2014 12:46
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 26-02-2014 13:09
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
Joined: 21-07-2010
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Spoiler Atlantius wrote:
issoisso wrote:
Atlantius wrote:
issoisso wrote:
It's my experience that a world championship that has X written all over it is basically guaranteed to not be won by said person
Copenhagen 2011: Cavendish
Valkenburg 2012: Gilbert
2011 Cavendish was considered the outsider because the sprint was uphill
2012 everyone was mocking Gilbert because he'd done nothing all year
You may recall the first was considered an open race and the 2nd "a shoo-in for Sagan"
There was never going to be another winner in 2011 when people actually looked at the "hill". I was there and it was obvious that it was never going to be hard enough to challenge any pro cyclists. A thing that was realized by pretty much every single reporter as soon as they came to the site.
The hill got talked up massively mainly because people wanted to believe it was an open race. It never was.
At the start of the 2012 season Gilbert was the massive favourite for the worlds, mid-season he wasn't but after his two stage wins in the Vuelta he was obviously back to being a main favourite.
Sagan was just a case of massive hype. He had no reason to be considered a favourite for that finish and to me the main challenger for Gilbert was always goung to be Purito.
Really? Sagan was not good in the end as he was empty, but über puncher Boasson Hagen got 2nd there and master climber Allan Davis was 6th. Not even mentioning Navardauskas being 8th in the finish...
Purito was 39th...
Of course you will "defend" Sagan, though I'm not saying this to belittle him in any way. The statement above is what I believed at the time.
Purito disappointing has nothing to do with the Sagan-hype. But considering that Sagan had no real results after the Tour (except Dutch Food Valley Classic, 2nd to Bos) I would not expect him to be anywhere near becoming world champion. A 3rd in Amstel is/was far from enough to make him the above-all favourite for an Ardennes-edition of Worlds as Isso suggested he was. Looking at the results Boasson Hagen should be expected to be in better shape than Sagan at least and he is by no means bad on hilly terrain.
I think most agreed at the time that Purito was considered the best puncher in 2012, while Gilbert would be considered the best puncher if he managed to find his old (2011) self. Since Gilbert found something resembling that form during the Vuelta and Purito rode a strong Vuelta as well that made those two the claear-cut favourites for me.
Edit: Remember in this discussion that you can't use the result of the race to detemine the pre-race favourite 
Anyway the real issue considering the statement should be that at the time of the announcement of the route Gilbert was the big favourite for 2012 and Cavendish was the big favourite for 2011 suggesting that it's far from a law of nature that the big favourite on paper will lose out in the Worlds.
If anything that should be a good thing for Sagan as he should be considered (at this point in time) the main favourite for 2015 with Cancellara his main opponent if the Swiss doesn't mentally retire beforehand.
Edited by Atlantius on 26-02-2014 13:10
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| SSJ2Luigi |
Posted on 26-02-2014 13:17
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World Champion
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Atlantius wrote:
If anything that should be a good thing for Sagan as he should be considered (at this point in time) the main favourite for 2015 with Cancellara his main opponent if the Swiss doesn't mentally retire beforehand.
Cancellara already said to finish his contract and then retire (would be 2016 iirc)
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 26-02-2014 13:22
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
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SSJ2Luigi wrote:
Atlantius wrote:
If anything that should be a good thing for Sagan as he should be considered (at this point in time) the main favourite for 2015 with Cancellara his main opponent if the Swiss doesn't mentally retire beforehand.
Cancellara already said to finish his contract and then retire (would be 2016 iirc)
Hence my comment about having mentally retired
He will still be riding in 2015, but I'm not convinced he will be motivated/focused enough to be a favourite for the words...
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| SSJ2Luigi |
Posted on 26-02-2014 13:28
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World Champion
Posts: 11971
Joined: 21-07-2012
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Atlantius wrote:
SSJ2Luigi wrote:
Atlantius wrote:
If anything that should be a good thing for Sagan as he should be considered (at this point in time) the main favourite for 2015 with Cancellara his main opponent if the Swiss doesn't mentally retire beforehand.
Cancellara already said to finish his contract and then retire (would be 2016 iirc)
Hence my comment about having mentally retired
He will still be riding in 2015, but I'm not convinced he will be motivated/focused enough to be a favourite for the words...
so that's why I'm hosting I'm with stupid  you would almost think I have no self respect at all
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 26-02-2014 13:44
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World Champion
Posts: 14236
Joined: 20-06-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Atlantius wrote:
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Spoiler Atlantius wrote:
issoisso wrote:
Atlantius wrote:
issoisso wrote:
It's my experience that a world championship that has X written all over it is basically guaranteed to not be won by said person
Copenhagen 2011: Cavendish
Valkenburg 2012: Gilbert
2011 Cavendish was considered the outsider because the sprint was uphill
2012 everyone was mocking Gilbert because he'd done nothing all year
You may recall the first was considered an open race and the 2nd "a shoo-in for Sagan"
There was never going to be another winner in 2011 when people actually looked at the "hill". I was there and it was obvious that it was never going to be hard enough to challenge any pro cyclists. A thing that was realized by pretty much every single reporter as soon as they came to the site.
The hill got talked up massively mainly because people wanted to believe it was an open race. It never was.
At the start of the 2012 season Gilbert was the massive favourite for the worlds, mid-season he wasn't but after his two stage wins in the Vuelta he was obviously back to being a main favourite.
Sagan was just a case of massive hype. He had no reason to be considered a favourite for that finish and to me the main challenger for Gilbert was always goung to be Purito.
Really? Sagan was not good in the end as he was empty, but über puncher Boasson Hagen got 2nd there and master climber Allan Davis was 6th. Not even mentioning Navardauskas being 8th in the finish...
Purito was 39th...
Of course you will "defend" Sagan, though I'm not saying this to belittle him in any way. The statement above is what I believed at the time.
Purito disappointing has nothing to do with the Sagan-hype. But considering that Sagan had no real results after the Tour (except Dutch Food Valley Classic, 2nd to Bos) I would not expect him to be anywhere near becoming world champion. A 3rd in Amstel is/was far from enough to make him the above-all favourite for an Ardennes-edition of Worlds as Isso suggested he was. Looking at the results Boasson Hagen should be expected to be in better shape than Sagan at least and he is by no means bad on hilly terrain.
I think most agreed at the time that Purito was considered the best puncher in 2012, while Gilbert would be considered the best puncher if he managed to find his old (2011) self. Since Gilbert found something resembling that form during the Vuelta and Purito rode a strong Vuelta as well that made those two the claear-cut favourites for me.
Edit: Remember in this discussion that you can't use the result of the race to detemine the pre-race favourite
Anyway the real issue considering the statement should be that at the time of the announcement of the route Gilbert was the big favourite for 2012 and Cavendish was the big favourite for 2011 suggesting that it's far from a law of nature that the big favourite on paper will lose out in the Worlds.
If anything that should be a good thing for Sagan as he should be considered (at this point in time) the main favourite for 2015 with Cancellara his main opponent if the Swiss doesn't mentally retire beforehand.
I was not defending him really much, i just think saying that he was one of the favourites only thanks to the hype is very far from realistic...he finished in the leading group in the end, so saying he was a favourite was always justified, because anybody could win from that group...
I think you are doing exactly what you said cannot be done. You are saying he was never a favourite for you, because he finished "only" 14th, like doing general after the battle (that is czech saying).
And i loled on how you said that 3rd at Amstel is far from enough to signalize someone could be favourite at Worlds with Cauberg on the route. 
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 26-02-2014 13:44
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 26-02-2014 14:03
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
Joined: 21-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
I was not defending him really much, i just think saying that he was one of the favourites only thanks to the hype is very far from realistic...he finished in the leading group in the end, so saying he was a favourite was always justified, because anybody could win from that group...
I think you are doing exactly what you said cannot be done. You are saying he was never a favourite for you, because he finished "only" 14th, like doing general after the battle (that is czech saying).
And i loled on how you said that 3rd at Amstel is far from enough to signalize someone could be favourite at Worlds with Cauberg on the route.
I haven't one time referred to his 14th place as an argumentation. I have referred to him not doing much after the Tour suggesting that his early season form was gone and not easily found again. One good Ardennes-result doesn't change that for me. A lot of riders have that one good Ardennes-result, but that doesn't make all of them favourites for the world championships.
When that is said I was surprised that the front group was so large. Again that is you being the "general after the battle" using the result to label Sagan as a favourite. True as the race turned out a lot of people were close to winning, but that still isn't what we're talking about, when discussing whether or not a pre-race favourite has a decent chance of winning the worlds.
Gilbert was the favourite for Valkenburg when the route was announced (which has to be what we're talking about with Richmond being the base of the discussion) and for me at the time the favourites were Gilbert and Purito.
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| kubys |
Posted on 26-02-2014 14:26
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Domestique
Posts: 704
Joined: 07-05-2013
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
I was not defending him really much, i just think saying that he was one of the favourites only thanks to the hype is very far from realistic...he finished in the leading group in the end, so saying he was a favourite was always justified, because anybody could win from that group...
I think you are doing exactly what you said cannot be done. You are saying he was never a favourite for you, because he finished "only" 14th, like doing general after the battle (that is czech saying).
And i loled on how you said that 3rd at Amstel is far from enough to signalize someone could be favourite at Worlds with Cauberg on the route.
I don't know, but you are incredibly blind towards Sagan. Nobody said he was bad on that WC or so. But that he shouldn't be considered as one of the favourites because of his recent form...
Edited by kubys on 26-02-2014 14:28
Die hard fan of Tom Boonen and Quickstep since 2004.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 26-02-2014 14:36
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World Champion
Posts: 14236
Joined: 20-06-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Oh gosh,stop that. My response was not because i am on sagan watch or because i felt somebody was saying bad things on him. I just reacted,because he really was a big favourite for majority of journalists and people here on the forum. So saying that he wasnt and it was just hype is nonsense. Clear?
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 26-02-2014 14:51
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| ShortsNL |
Posted on 26-02-2014 14:51
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 898
Joined: 17-11-2011
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I must say I am impressed by isso for getting a Sagan flame war going without actually mentioning Sagan himself.
Troll master race
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 26-02-2014 14:53
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World Champion
Posts: 14236
Joined: 20-06-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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ShortsNL wrote:
I must say I am impressed by isso for getting a Sagan flame war going without actually mentioning Sagan himself.
Troll master race
He mentioned him.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 26-02-2014 15:40
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
Joined: 21-07-2010
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Oh gosh,stop that. My response was not because i am on sagan watch or because i felt somebody was saying bad things on him. I just reacted,because he really was a big favourite for majority of journalists and people here on the forum. So saying that he wasnt and it was just hype is nonsense. Clear?
Well the commentators I saw having him as the top favourite at the time was the same ones as were still discussing whether he should win Roubaix, L-B-L, Tour de France or all three at the same time so I didn't really take that as nothing more than a continued expectation of Sagan winning every race he enters no matte what shape he is in
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| Crommy |
Posted on 26-02-2014 20:18
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World Champion
Posts: 10018
Joined: 29-11-2006
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This is an interesting interview with Vayer: https://velonews.c...ion_318036
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| ianrussell |
Posted on 26-02-2014 22:15
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3440
Joined: 09-10-2008
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Interesting stuff indeed. Even, selective, cautious optimism. Thanks for the link. |
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| 547984 |
Posted on 26-02-2014 22:50
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5008
Joined: 29-01-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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ShortsNL wrote:
I must say I am impressed by isso for getting a Sagan flame war going without actually mentioning Sagan himself.
Troll master race
Oh no, setup accounts again
baseballlover312, 06-03-14 : "Nuke Moscow...Don't worry Russia, we've got plenty of love to go around your cities"
Sarah Palin, 08-03-14 (CPAC, on Russian aggression) : "The only thing that stops a bad guy with a nuke is a good guy with a nuke"
Big thanks to jdog for making this AMAZING userbar! |
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| roturn |
Posted on 27-02-2014 09:16
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Team Manager
Posts: 22246
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If Bjarne Rijs was Mr. 60%, then we have a new one.
Yimmy Briceno did have a hemacrotit of 63%!
https://diariodelo...83/106231/ |
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