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Tour Down Under Discussion
seancoll
Tour Down Under
C1 – 6 Stages


pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Profiles/mg_australia.jpg


The six stages of the Tour Down Under feature a mix of short flat and hilly stages designed for those without major mountain capabilities. With a maximum length of 156km, races should be determined by the tactics and attacks as opposed to pure stamina and fatigue. Even the flat stages here (except the final) have some undulation throughout the day though that could cause splits in the groups due to positioning. This 2022 edition is the first with a new parcours, so it will be intriguing to see the race adapt to the new course. The 2023 edition continues to hold the sprint GC bonuses it had in 2022, so the sprinters may be able to gain strong GC positions, even if they don’t make the top group on every hilly stage.


History

The Tour Down Under has been a feature in the schedule since 2008, when the 5-stage inaugural edition was won by Ivan Rovny. 6-stage parcours became the norm for the race in 2010 with no change since then, although the stages have changed with a new race profile this season.

The only Tour Down Under champion to return this season is Tosh Van der Sande who took home the title in 2020 after also gaining a stage victory that season. Hugo Houle is 2022’s top finisher to return after taking runner-up honors behind Jay McCarthy who was ineligible to return this year. Houle also has a stage victory from 2020. Other previous stage winners returning this year are Elie Gesbert (2021 + 5th GC 2022), Marko Kump (2020, 2017, 2016), and Carlos Barbero (2016).



Finding Success

With the combination of hills and sprints, it is tough to know exactly what combination of skills will lead to success in Australia. Sprinters looking for success will need to find it on stage 1 in order to be protected by their teams for the following stages. Those missing out on the top spots may be looked over by their teams for other punchier options in the coming stages, even if they could still perform a high quality position by race end. The same is true for our hills heavy teams, where they will need to prioritize options early on in the tour.

There’s only one rider with top 5 rankings across the hills and the sprints in this race making him the easy favorite: pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/trg.png Arnaud Demare.

Demare could conceivably be considered the favorite for every single stage as his combination of Hill, Sprint, and Acceleration will be tough to match. None of the finishing climbs on stage 4 or 5 should be long or steep enough to make serious GC in roads against the Tryg – Gobyk star. Even if he doesn't take any individual stages, he should be the most consistent finisher and land himself at least a GC podium.

NameFLMOHISTRSRCSPAC
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/trg.png Demare7367807572808281



Puncheurs


NameFLMOHISTRSRCSPAC
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/snz.png Bobridge7167817171666777
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/aab.png Gesbert7174808078786873
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ubt.png Müller7067807671706673
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Beltran6878807170706574
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ade.png Vogt7362807871656263
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/zal.png Moscon7173807677755973
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lmp.png Turgis7367797678707077
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/dev.png Stannard7373797576746978
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/tlt.png Bystrom7268797572676876
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Prevar7170797568666671
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/kmm.png Kanerva6964797569706476


The best man uphill is the Aussie pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/snz.png Bobridge. On the “mountaintop” finishes of stage 4 and 5, he should be able to match the strengths of Demare with strong acceleration. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/aab.png Gesbert also stands out with the ability to handle a hard race. While that may not spell a race victory, guaranteeing yourself in the front group on every stage could be crucial as the Australian roads tend to facilitate fast and aggressive racing even on shorter stages. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Prevar and Beltran should be able to work together as they are the only pair of teammates in the top 10 puncheurs.


Sprinters


NameFLMOHISTRSRCSPAC
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/sfi.png Vesely7360687468768180
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/snz.png Howard7461667267748076
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/kmm.png Haller7261657271768079
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ade.png Lo Cicero6852606557738072
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/jur.png Bol7664707577817977
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ubt.png Van Asbroeck7452707471777977
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/gla.png Kennett7558657376787978
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/mck.png Walscheid7355637174737979
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Lutsyshyn7050546973747980
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/xr0.png Houle7765747570777877
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/muw.png Van der Sande7464697772747878
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/anz.png Scully7351666569767879
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/snz.png Scott7263667271747878
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/zal.png Losch7352657268757879
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/fas.png Matthews7558647065717877
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/gla.png Bennett7052637367787878


The sprint field is equally strong to the hills crew, but again, they all fall behind the skills of Demare. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/sfi.png Vesely is the most likely to upset Demare for a stage victory but he’ll probably struggle to find the final group on the hills stages. With pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/xr0.png Houle’s top finish last year, it’s clear that he knows how to sprint on the streets of Southern Australia and he should be strong enough to protect a strong GC position if he can take some bonus seconds on the first stage. Spark – BNZ Racing stands out as having a strong squad to potentially control the final miles as pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/snz.png Howard should led out by pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/snz.png Scott.

Outside of these, it’s tough to know who teams will be prioritizing. The extra bonus seconds at the finish line should mean that teams might transition GC leadership from a puncheur to their sprinter with a strong early result. We won’t be making GC predictions or delineating between GC contenders and sprinters because it’s tough to know how selective the hills stages will be. If they’re easy, this sprint list is a more likely batch of who we’ll see on the podium in Adelaide. We'll also have to see if Australia brings the first breakaway win of the season, which could spell the biggest GC surprise if Demare and others can't take time back on bonus seconds.

Full Startlist:
Spoiler
Last nameFirst nameTeam
Lo CiceroIvanoAdidas - Eurocash
AreggerMarcelAdidas - Eurocash
BewleySamAdidas - Eurocash
StepniakGrzegorzAdidas - Eurocash
VogtMarioAdidas - Eurocash
BallerstedtMauriceAdidas - Eurocash
MagerChristianAdidas - Eurocash
Osborne JasonAdidas - Eurocash
ScullyTomAir New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
GunmanTaylorAir New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
SkalaJakubAir New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
PhelanAdamAir New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
ShalunovEvgenyAir New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
DiazDaniel RicardoAir New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
PuccioSalvatoreAir New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
CostagliTeodoroAir New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
RickaertJonasAssa Abloy
Van AertBernardAssa Abloy
GesbertElieAssa Abloy
KvistLinusAssa Abloy
MoscaJacopoAssa Abloy
MatsumotoYosukueAssa Abloy
HänninenJaakoAssa Abloy
ChavesJohan EstebanAssa Abloy
GuardiniAndreaCaja Rural Cycling Team
DomeneRamonCaja Rural Cycling Team
BarberoCarlosCaja Rural Cycling Team
SerranoGonzaloCaja Rural Cycling Team
EzquerraJesusCaja Rural Cycling Team
QuevedoXavierCaja Rural Cycling Team
SinkeldamRamonCaja Rural Cycling Team
ScheitFlorianCaja Rural Cycling Team
LoschMaxDK Zalgiris
FrankovicMateoDK Zalgiris
RodriguezBrandonDK Zalgiris
GuldhammerRasmusDK Zalgiris
LaasMartinDK Zalgiris
SossaJuanDK Zalgiris
MosconGianniDK Zalgiris
BereznyakAleksandrDK Zalgiris
KulikovskiyAlexandrDuckDuckGo - Everesting
VahtraNormanDuckDuckGo - Everesting
ArndtNikiasDuckDuckGo - Everesting
StannardRobertDuckDuckGo - Everesting
ZegklisNikolaosDuckDuckGo - Everesting
Diaz SuarezAndy AlihonayDuckDuckGo - Everesting
MontenegroSantiagoDuckDuckGo - Everesting
PonceJoelDuckDuckGo - Everesting
RussoClementEkoi - Le Creuset
ThompsonReubenEkoi - Le Creuset
TeunsDylanEkoi - Le Creuset
Le GacOlivierEkoi - Le Creuset
KaratsivisPanagiotisEkoi - Le Creuset
DelboveJorisEkoi - Le Creuset
GaribianArmanEkoi - Le Creuset
HopkinsDylanEkoi - Le Creuset
MatthewsMichaelFastned
VansevenantMauriFastned
PluimersRickFastned
DenzNicoFastned
van SintmaartensdijkRoelFastned
Van HooydonckNathanFastned
HessmannMichelFastned
Fisher-BlackFinnFastned
KiskonenSiimGenii Hyundai N Cycling
VelascoSimoneGenii Hyundai N Cycling
RobovMomchilGenii Hyundai N Cycling
JarcAljazGenii Hyundai N Cycling
SelimovicHuseinGenii Hyundai N Cycling
StoenchevValentinGenii Hyundai N Cycling
UhiriweRenusGenii Hyundai N Cycling
BechkovAleksGenii Hyundai N Cycling
KennettDylanGlanbia
BennettSamGlanbia
JuneauFrancisGlanbia
WadeAaronGlanbia
McKennaSeanGlanbia
McCambridgeKevinGlanbia
MainKentGlanbia
RyanArchieGlanbia
BolCeesJura GIANTS
TheunsEdwardJura GIANTS
SzarkaGergelyJura GIANTS
StockerManuelJura GIANTS
SchmidMauroJura GIANTS
PageHugoJura GIANTS
Bakke ChristophersenCedricJura GIANTS
RaugalaGustasJura GIANTS
HallerMarcoKraftwerk Man Machine
De BuystJasperKraftwerk Man Machine
RumacJosipKraftwerk Man Machine
BoilyDavidKraftwerk Man Machine
TheorpanousStavrosKraftwerk Man Machine
KanervaJoniKraftwerk Man Machine
MoazemiArvinKraftwerk Man Machine
UhligHenriKraftwerk Man Machine
ThwaitesScottLampre - Pinarello
DzamastagicMarkLampre - Pinarello
MeurisseXandroLampre - Pinarello
KooijOlavLampre - Pinarello
TurgisAnthonyLampre - Pinarello
Van KeirsbulckGuillaumeLampre - Pinarello
MedvedevSergeyLampre - Pinarello
CamrdaKarelLampre - Pinarello
WalscheidMaximilianMcCormick Pro Cycling
NarvaezJhonatanMcCormick Pro Cycling
BagioliAndreaMcCormick Pro Cycling
SimmonsQuinnMcCormick Pro Cycling
NaudPatrickMcCormick Pro Cycling
SeigleRomanMcCormick Pro Cycling
MatteCharlesMcCormick Pro Cycling
MostovZekeMcCormick Pro Cycling
Van der SandeToshMercatone Uno - Weba
MoschettiMatteoMercatone Uno - Weba
BurattiNicoloMercatone Uno - Weba
TurnerBenMercatone Uno - Weba
BlouweLouisMercatone Uno - Weba
HagenEdvald BoassonMercatone Uno - Weba
LaganeChristopherPodium Ambition
PonsGaetanPodium Ambition
MayerAlexandrePodium Ambition
KellyJacobPodium Ambition
WhiteConnorPodium Ambition
MutsumineWataruPodium Ambition
Morales OrtegaJacobPodium Ambition
GonzalezAbnerPodium Ambition
WippertWouterSimba Cement - Tanga Fresh
HabtomMikielSimba Cement - Tanga Fresh
RedeckerHeikoSimba Cement - Tanga Fresh
WeissMartinSimba Cement - Tanga Fresh
HermansQuintenSimba Cement - Tanga Fresh
GoglMichaelSimba Cement - Tanga Fresh
RotaLorenzoSimba Cement - Tanga Fresh
Van HeerdenEddieSimba Cement - Tanga Fresh
VeselyDanielSony - Force India
Van DijkeMickSony - Force India
HavikPiotrSony - Force India
Van DijkeTimSony - Force India
AlbenEsowSony - Force India
HayterLeoSony - Force India
JungelsBobSony - Force India
TratnikJanSony - Force India
HowardLeighSpark-BNZ Racing
ScottCameronSpark-BNZ Racing
MudgwayLukeSpark-BNZ Racing
McCormickHaydenSpark-BNZ Racing
BobridgeJackSpark-BNZ Racing
RodriguezCarlosSpark-BNZ Racing
YatesJoelSpark-BNZ Racing
MarryattJakeSpark-BNZ Racing
LutsyshynRomanTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
GladyshRomanTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
PrevarOleksandrTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
BeltranEduard AlexanderTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
VargaPeterTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
BratashcukAndriiTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
KachurDmytroTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
BudyakAnatoliyTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Van AsbroeckTomTeam UBS - Tissot
BohliTomTeam UBS - Tissot
JacobsJohanTeam UBS - Tissot
MüllerPatrickTeam UBS - Tissot
BrunNilsTeam UBS - Tissot
BlumEliaTeam UBS - Tissot
SpenglerLukasTeam UBS - Tissot
BalmerAlexandreTeam UBS - Tissot
KorosecRokTrans Looney Tunes
CalmejaneLilianTrans Looney Tunes
BystromSven ErikTrans Looney Tunes
SenyenovRomanTrans Looney Tunes
PibernikLukaTrans Looney Tunes
TulettBenTrans Looney Tunes
KatrasnikGasperTrans Looney Tunes
MurnBostjanTrans Looney Tunes
DemareArnaudTryg - Gobik
KumpMarkoTryg - Gobik
HoelgaardDanielTryg - Gobik
SummerhillDannyTryg - Gobik
Blume LevyWilliamTryg - Gobik
KaloniatisGeorgiosTryg - Gobik
HonoreMikkelTryg - Gobik
CurrieLoganTryg - Gobik
HouleHugoXero Racing
HamzaYacineXero Racing
SchomberNilsXero Racing
Tesfaye HeyiHenokXero Racing
BoileauAlanXero Racing
LazkanoOierXero Racing
DuyvesteynKeesXero Racing
RamirezJhon StivenXero Racing


MG Manager - SEE Turtles
 
whitejersey
This really should be Demare's race to win after being nowhere to be found in DUC. We come here with the hopes of getting a couple of riders into the top 20 in the GC and obviously hope that Turgis is much higher than that, he has the ability to produce a massive result here for us! Thanks for a great preview, looking forward to the reports!
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Think our team achieves being not quite good enough to compete on any stage. Still hope Walscheid can scavenge some decent stages positions and if the hills are non-selective both Bagioli and Narvaez are decent sprinters if they get positioning

Thanks for the preview.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
kandesbunzler26
We aren't mentioned as race favourites, but Teuns / Le Gac aren't that far off in the puncheur section and should be able to get good stage results in stages 2, 4 and 5 and thus a decent GC result as well. And though he's no Demare, Russo could show himself in stages 1-4 depending how selective they're riden.

Thanks to sean for the preview.
i.imgur.com/77VDWQo.jpeg


i.ibb.co/PC3Kfz9/Signature2020.pngi.ibb.co/Hpc4z3S/FINALUSER.pngpcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/mostimproved-bk26.png
 
Sykkel_Freak
Hoping to see Gesbert improve on last year’s 5th place. He doesn’t have the best acceleration, so a semi-early attack might be his best chance. In any case, Demare will be hard to beat.

Looking forward to the reports!
 
Gustavovskiy
Good chance for Stannard to show his worth. Withe jersey should be the goal. After that it's hard to really definte a target. Anythibg could happen, but hopefully a top5 can be reached. We'll see.

Demare's race to lose indeed.

Thanks for the preview seancoll!
Manager of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2024/Micros/eve.png Everesting pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2024/Micros/eve.png
 
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TheManxMissile
Rocking up to see if Lagane/Meyer can pop in a surprise stage result. Otherwise hoping for a few breakaways and just a nice time in the Aussie sun
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
DaveTwoBob
Will be interested to see how new boy Kanerva goes, hope he can do as well as Bilbao.

Haller is here for the sprints, hope we don't bother with a leadout!
Manager of Renault Classic [ICL]
Manager of Kraftwerk Man Machine [Man Game]
 
Fabianski
Back from vacation, just in time for our first race of the year Smile
Although Errazkin isn't among the top puncheurs, I'm still hoping for a good GC result by him. Schmid is here to get us a some U25 points (although Stannard and Vansevenant should be stronger) - plus maybe a KoM challenge? Theuns might be an option for the easier hilly stages as well, being one of the stronger sprinters having 70+ hill stat. Speaking of those, Bol doesn't look too bad on that sprinter list - especially his combo of hill, sprint and energy stats is quite unique. If the new PCM values energy stats a little bit (DUC makes me feel it doesn't at all, though), he might get a couple of chances as well.

Definitely not our main focus race (and one we won't stand any chance of winning, like pretty much every race where we face Démare), but some points would obviously be very welcome Smile
 
jandal7
Hope for a good race from Houle, he's always been great here and even though with Demare in attendance I think he'll never get the win he's always been so close to (2x second place by seconds each time) I still have high hopes Smile Almost our weakest possible squad around him other than Tesfaye, but he should be better off wheelsurfing anyway.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."

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Jakstar22
We have boring it quite a strong team here as it’s the opening stage race of the year for us (that we can score in). Our team looks strong and I hope to get a strong result in the GC and in the stages. Really excited for this race! Good luck everyone!
 
liefwarrior
One of those races which feel as though they have been tailor made for Démare. Anything but overall victory will be a disappointment but, as I was reminded in the Down Under Classic, the PCM engine can be a cruel mistress. Strong team to support him here with Summerhill (rouleur), Kump (leadout), Hoelgaard (puncheur domestique) and Honore (puncheur domestique).
__________
Manager of
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2024/Micros/trg.png Tryg - ENI pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2024/Micros/trg.png
 
Eden95
Should be a slam dunk for Demare, he could also legitimately win every stage because that sprinter start list is so surprisingly weak.
Indosat - ANZ HQ

"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett
 
roturn
On paper one for Demare, that said, PCM not always working best with sprint/hill hybrids when only recognized for one terrain as leader, which is annoying when bonus seconds are important.

Beltran a bit unexpected on easier terrain but could do decent nevertheless.

For my own team, no huge expectations. Just had to join here when being in PCT. Vansevenant could do great, could do awful. If catching up a few bonus seconds here and there it could be a nice race for him but don`t have highest expectations.

Sprint wise it`s a home race here. Decided to give Matthews the chance on his own, so he might get a top5 or 10 maybe.

Other than that, a breakaway chance for some riders such as Denz or Van Hooydonck with talents being the fillers.


Stage 1 Update: Haven`t seen the report being out yet. Was pretty impressed by the team. Fisher-Black being a nice option for the break, not stat wise, but Nation wise, not too far off New Zealand.

Matthews then with a strong showing in 4th. Fair enough to lose out on the top3 here, but also beating 2-3 sprinters, you wouldn`t necessarily expect.
Edited by roturn on 02-10-2023 07:51
 
cunego59
Love love love that effort from Uhiriwe and to see it rewarded with the mountain jersey, too - that's an early career highlight and a damn good introduction to his loan team there.

It's also neat to see that on the second sprint stage of PCM22, it's the second time that a sprint train works out really well. We'll have to see if this trend continues - the bend just before the flamme rouge will have helped - but if it does, I think it bodes really well for the future and especially the sprinters' market.

Congrats to Kraftwerk, and at least a slightly encouraging sign from Demare after the flop at the DUC. Those few bonus seconds could come in handy for the overall.
 
Caspi
Happy to see Wippert on 9th on the 1st stage. I guess it's a small overperformance, but not a big surprise.
Habtom might have number 1 on his back, but I think we have better suited riders for this race.
Looking forward to seeing if we'll be competitive on the next stage.
 
jandal7
...this could be a very bad season Pfft
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."

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Gustavovskiy
Congrats on the win to Kraftwerk. Anonymous stage for us. Hopefully we'll be more active on the decisive days
Manager of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2024/Micros/eve.png Everesting pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2024/Micros/eve.png
 
MacC
A real danger of no points or peanuts only here for Glanbia unless Kennett can improve or we get in a successful break...

"long hard season" they said....
 
fjhoekie
Isn't that just wonderful? Well done team, good man for the leadout, at least would be in all stages with a bit harder finish... If somehow Gladysh or Beltran can get themselves into some top 10 placements there is something to be gained here, else it's just a throwaway kind of race
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
 
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