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Herald Sun Tour Discussion
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 29-07-2020 10:48
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Grand Tour Champion
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 Herald Sun Tour
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2018 | Rasmus Sterobo | Compal-Merida | | 2017 | Maxime Monfort | Team Reddit | | 2016 | Kiril Yatsevich | The Spark Project p/b Bollé | | 2015 | Aidis Kruopis | Indosat - ANZ | | 2014 | Jose Mendes | Bank of Ireland - Irish Cycling | | 2013 | Michael Rogers | Oz Cycling Project | | 2012 | Kristjan Koren | California Giant Berry Farms-Specialized | | 2011 | Jose Alarcon | Team IKEA - Bianchi | | 2010 | Cadel Evans | Team Olympus AirAsia - Presented by Petronas | | 2009 | Adam Hansen | Procycling - BBC |
Herald Sun Tour debuted on the calendar in 2009 and the race, held in Victoria, Australia, has been on the calendar ever since. Over the years it has varied in length, division and type of race, but for the last few years it seems pretty consistent: a five-day continental stage race focusing on sprinters and time trialists. The time trialists will likely have the edge in the GC unless a sprinter can win all stages and can assemble 80 bonus seconds, but that will be a tough ask.
Profiles
The riders participate in four flat stages and a time trial to the west of Melbourne. The first stage starts in Geelong and finishes in Ballarat, and is the only stage which features a slightly uphill sprint. The second stage, from Mt Macedon to Bendigo, has some climbing in the first part but a mostly flat finish. After starting in Bendigo, stage three moves to the Nagambie area for another sprint, with the fourth stage being the time trial around the same area. The finish line of the final stage is drawn at the Mitchelton Winery, where the sprinters have a last battle, after which the champagne will pop for the winners.
Startlist
| Time trialists | TT | FL | SP | Time trialists | TT | FL | SP |  Robert | 79 | 67 | 55 |  Reckweg | 74 | 76 | 68 |  Cruz | 78 | 75 | 68 |  Thill | 74 | 74 | 62 | | Downey | 77 | 73 | 61 |  Braico | 74 | 72 | 67 |  Van Baarle | 77 | 73 | 57 | Al Murawwi | 74 | 71 | 65 | | Rekita | 77 | 71 | 69 | Mihaylov | 74 | 70 | 70 | | Sebright | 77 | 69 | 54 |  Durasek | 74 | 70 | 60 | | Betilson | 75 | 74 | 62 | Kukrle | 74 | 69 | 65 |  Joeaar | 75 | 70 | 65 | Ratiy | 74 | 66 | 53 |  Ortega | 75 | 65 | 53 | Castrillo | 72 | 73 | 67 |
To be in contention for the overall victory, you have to be an accomplished time trialist. Robert is arguably the best in the field, the French Champion beating the legendary Coppel in their national championship.
A shame there is no team time trial, otherwise Glanbia would be favorites by quite a margin. Cruz, Downey and Sebright would have made a sick team there, but for the individual event it will give them a high chance of many top GC positions.
Van Baarle cannot be underestimated, the Dutchman is not far down Robert and Cruz, and the form on the day of the time trial will be hugely important.
Favorite for the young rider classification is Rekita, with Kukrle and Castrillo as only plausible opposition there. The Pole is also a good contender for at bare minimum a top five.
Ratiy will be disappointed with the lack of mountains in the race, on just the time trial he will likely not be able to challenge for the top prize, but a good classification is still pretty much possible.
From the time trialists, Mihaylov is the best sprinter though far off the specialists. Picking up bonus seconds will likely not be possible.
| Sprinters | SP | ACC | TT | Sprinters | SP | ACC | TT |  Carsi | 80 | 82 | 67 | Young | 78 | 77 | 55 | | Moser | 80 | 79 | 70 |  Nepomnyachsniy | 78 | 76 | 67 | | Bennett | 79 | 79 | 57 | Cimolai | 77 | 77 | 57 |  Von Hoff | 79 | 77 | 65 | Kamberaj | 77 | 76 | 67 | | Suryadi | 79 | 76 | 64 | Kruopis | 77 | 75 | 70 | | Vaquera | 78 | 80 | 54 | Van Poppel | 76 | 78 | 62 |  Yamamoto | 78 | 78 | 58 | Losch | 76 | 77 | 62 |  Cisse | 78 | 77 | 67 | Andersson | 76 | 76 | 60 |  Szalontay | 78 | 77 | 67 | Geschke | 75 | 74 | 55 |
Four sprinter stages would normally see many of them wanting to ride here, but this race clashes with Course de Solidarnosc which has four flat stages without time trial. Mohs and Holloway have chosen to participate in the latter, leaving room for riders like Turkish Champion Carsi to take glory in their absence.
The sprinter which is most likely to have a shot in the GC is Moser, as he can pick up bonus seconds with his sprints. More importantly though, he is somewhat competent against the clock, unlike most of his peers.
Representing Australia is Von Hoff, a sprinter who should not rank far behind the aformentioned two. Riders on a similar level are Bennett and Suryadi.
Successful in the past has been Kruopis, having shown that by winning in 2015 with his decent time trial capabilities. His team might elect to focus on Nepomnyachsniy in the sprints, as he might be able to take a stage win.
Surprisingly, other than Kruopis, only one sprinter has taken a stage in the history. Geschke likes the opening stage very much, as the sprint is slightly uphill which suits his skillset. He took the win there in 2014, 2016 and 2018, which means he should win again in 2020. Too bad we are in 2019.
Sprints can be unpredictable so the list of contenders is long: Vaquera, Yamamoto, Cisse and Szalontay can all take a win or more.
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 29-07-2020 14:54
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 34654
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Time is running out for the Eddie Stobart boys to get that first race win of the season  |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 29-07-2020 18:46
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Given the startlist, I should probably have sent Guillén here instead of Solidarnosc, as he won't have any chance against Holloway and Mohs anyway. But well, let's see what Cissé and Walscheid can do here. Cissé has alread got quite many decent results, and Walscheid just got two stage Top 10s in Basque Country and had a good deal of great leadouts, too, so I don't want to be too pessimistic before the race actually starts...
In terms of GC, we definitely know we're lacking a TT specialist, and that's on the wishlist for next year. Gamper could be a candidate in three years...
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 03:04
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Bot Agent
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 29-07-2020 22:19
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Interesting that the game has us as the strongest lineup here. Should be a good race regardless tho!
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 29-07-2020 23:54
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3999
Joined: 26-07-2011
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Oof the startlists here are nice to see, yet we still have an awful shot at anything.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 30-07-2020 11:41
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
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Definitely can't complain about Cissé's 4th place here, especially given that Walscheid as his leadout missed the split... That 27" gap is rather good news, too, although it still seems unlikely to get some GC points. But if he continues sprinting that way, I'm already pretty happy.
Gamper being our only rider in the second group is good and bad news; good because he's our best TTer, bad because all others seemed to be sleeping...
Congrats to BNZ for a great day and thanks for the report!
By the way, I guess Moser's odds of getting a good GC result are pretty good right now... Could be a great race for Euskaltel if Robert delivers as well.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 30-07-2020 12:17
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
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Awesome win for BNZ and home rider Steele von Hoff, love to see it 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 30-07-2020 14:20
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
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Van Poppel with a 5th is a decent start to the race, and is most likely where I'd assume we would end up.
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 30-07-2020 15:25
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 34654
Joined: 22-08-2010
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A steady start from Cimolai  |
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 31-07-2020 04:18
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3999
Joined: 26-07-2011
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Sigh we can't even avoid points if we want to right now that's how stupidly strong Azteca has been. Thanks to our stagiere picking up whatever tiny number of point for leading the KoM by dumb luck. He's actually a solid rider to make sure and hold that I'm honestly not sure how many KoM points are even available at all in this race though.
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 31-07-2020 10:30
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
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Cissé's poor positioning is really a shame, as he seemed to be the strongest on the final meters. Given the situation with 1,000m to go, I definitely have to be happy with a second straight Top 5, but it could have been so much more... Pretty much sums up our season: minor points here and there, but we're often lacking the big results for a better overall position...
Thanks for another great report, and congrats to Nepo!
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 31-07-2020 16:37
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 34654
Joined: 22-08-2010
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Cimolai puts in s good result again  |
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| quadsas |
Posted on 31-07-2020 17:48
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
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Nepo is a bit bipolar, either he grabs a win or completely falters as evidenced by stage 1. He aint in contention for GC but any points with this weak squad is a win
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 31-07-2020 19:27
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3999
Joined: 26-07-2011
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Roberge doing good work to keep that KoM jersey... wtf is a climber like Pinot even doing at this race!
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 01-08-2020 09:25
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Team Leader
Posts: 5533
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Not the best start in the opening stages from Moser. He should really be doing a lot better here... Stage 4 will of course be huge for the GC so just need everyone to be within striking distance!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 01-08-2020 10:19
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Directeur Sportif
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Hell yes, a win for Eddie Stobart!
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 01-08-2020 10:26
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Team Leader
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Interesting finale there. Unsure as to why Jakobsen isn’t part of the lead-out as I feel it would be an easy win for Moser if he did. Regardless, much happier with Moser there taking 2nd although he really shouldn’t be losing a sprint to a guy who’s 77/77. Interesting to see how much time he loses in the TT.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 01-08-2020 11:06
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Team Leader
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Joined: 30-11-2006
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Carsi, very dissapointing.. :/
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 01-08-2020 12:02
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
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Not good enough. Especially disappointing to see that Walscheid has done absolutely nothing for Cissé in these 3 stages. Cissé's position looked nice this time, taking Nepo's wheel, but the latter somehow messed up with his timing. Hoping to finally get a podium on the last stage... And maybe an OK result from Gamper in the TT - he might have a shot at some minor U25 points.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 01-08-2020 14:14
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2933
Joined: 09-05-2011
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21 seconds are not enough for Kamberaj to hold onto the U25 jersey considering his subpar TT. We have Kurkle, who is generally the best TT'er the team has to offer in this race. At least we scored some points for holding the jersey though.
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