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Vuelta a España Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:27
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Directeur Sportif
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 Vuelta a España
The second Grand Tour of the year. Welcome to Spain! A race often dominated by Spanish riders, but won by José Alacorn (Red Bull) last year. The climbing sensation from 2014 won't be at the start this year, so will we see another Spaniard re-claiming the top of the podium this time?
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | | 2014 |  Alarcon | Contador | Tenorio | | 2013 | Tenorio |  Nibali | Contador | | 2012 | Madrazo | Contador | Intxausti | | 2011 | Valverde |  A. Schleck | Rujano | | 2010 | A. Schleck | Intxausti | Gomez Marchante | | 2009 | Mancebo |  Gesink | Plaza | | 2008 |  Vinokourov | Gutierrez Catalana | Dekker | | 2007 | Mancebo | Kashechkin | Gomez Marchante |
As for the route, go and check roturn's detailed preview for an in-depth analysis of the course, that will suit those capable of riding against the clock: three ITTs (one hilly, total of 130km) speak for itself! The first week though offers a nice chance for strong(er) puncheurs and/or TT-specialists to slip into the leader's shirt, while - of course - mountains (six MTFs) will be the second big key to any GC-success here.
The Startlist
The GC Contenders | Captains | MO | HI | TT | Captains | MO | HI | TT |  Pluchkin | 85 | 75 | 79 |  Pozzovivo | 80 | 76 | 72 |  Tenorio | 84 | 76 | 80 |  Ratiy | 80 | 70 | 74 |  Amador | 84 | 75 | 78 |  Suaza | 80 | 65 | 73 |  Phinney | 82 | 77 | 83 |  Pinot | 80 | 74 | 65 |  Gesink | 82 | 81 | 80 |  Keinath | 79 | 76 | 75 |  Kritskiy | 82 | 75 | 80 |  Lecuisinier | 79 | 73 | 75 |  Dekker | 82 | 76 | 79 |  Wellens | 79 | 73 | 70 |  Contador | 82 | 76 | 74 |  Costagli | 79 | 71 | 70 |  Cunego | 82 | 81 | 70 |  Kohl | 79 | 73 | 69 |  Abal | 81 | 70 | 77 |  Brenes | 79 | 73 | 69 |  Monsalve | 81 | 76 | 72 |  König | 77 | 75 | 74 |  Guldhammer | 81 | 77 | 71 |  Mestre | 76 | 71 | 68 |
Let's begin this with the former Vuelta-winner(s): Tenorio (2013) and, well, Valverde (2011). While the latter probably won't be his team's GC-guy, Tenorio will of course try and do better than last year's 3rd place behind Alacorn and Contador. His MO/TT combination ain't that bad, to say at least.
Speaking of MO/TT, we surely have to consider Phinney, Gesink and maybe also Kritskiy as serious threats for the GC-victory. Especially Phinney (as clearly the best TTler here) and Gesink (as one of the best puncheurs amongst the GC-riders) will aim for nothing less than the (top of the) podium.
And then we have Pluchkin of course. Also strong against the clock, the premium climber has still to gain time on the summit finishes. He's capable of doing that, but the first flat (and long) timetrial in the first week will be about to limit the losses against Phinney.
Amador, Dekker, Contador (coming off three consecutive Vuelta-podiums) and Cunego as the next GC-favorites then. Cunego should like the look of the first week and may aim high here.. definitely two interesting wildcard teams with Bonsucro (Contador) and Buff (Abal).
The Sprinters | Sprinters | MO | SPR | ACC | Sprinters | MO | SPR | ACC | | Swift | 60 | 84 | 82 | Maksimov | 53 | 81 | 84 | | Lo Cicero | 56 | 84 | 78 | Roelandts | 61 | 81 | 80 | | Mohs | 56 | 83 | 82 | Zabel | 60 | 81 | 79 | | Guerao | 57 | 83 | 76 | Bennati | 53 | 81 | 73 | | Howard | 63 | 82 | 79 | Guardini | 55 | 80 | 82 | | Tzortzakis | 61 | 82 | 79 | Castañeda | 55 | 80 | 79 | | Goss | 57 | 82 | 78 | Van Avermaet | 52 | 80 | 71 | | Vanderbiest | 64 | 82 | 77 | Lay | 56 | 79 | 81 |
Kicking off with three flat stages, many teams decided to bring their premium sprinters to Spain this year. And so we got an elite selection of ProTour-sprinters here: Swift and Lo Cicero as the favorites for the easier profiles.
Mohs, local hero Guerao, Howard, Tzortzakis, Goss and Vanderbiest make it eight 82+ sprinters then. One thing should be clear: a few fast men will definitely regret spending those race days afterall.
The Specialists | Puncheurs | MO | HI | TT | TT guys | MO | HI | TT | | Bakelants | 75 | 84 | 67 | Viennet | 54 | 67 | 80 | | Van Garderen | 72 | 82 | 69 | Martin | 68 | 72 | 79 | | Froome | 70 | 82 | 67 | Vlatos | 52 | 64 | 79 | | Flügel | 72 | 81 | 65 | Mottin | 58 | 61 | 79 | | Bilbao | 67 | 79 | 63 | Goncalves | 73 | 71 | 78 | | Anuar Aziz | 67 | 79 | 62 | Paillot | 68 | 70 | 78 | | Sagan | 74 | 78 | 68 | Climbers | MO | HI | TT | | Roux | 65 | 78 | 62 | Nazaret | 80 | 71 | 65 | | Valverde | 77 | 77 | 69 | Duarte | 80 | 68 | 75 | | | | | Brambilla | 79 | 76 | 70 | | | | | Shikai | 78 | 71 | 76 | | | | | Elissonde | 78 | 73 | 63 | | | | | Medvedev | 78 | 64 | 63 |
Quite a list of puncheurs, too: Bakelants, Van Garderen, Froome and Flügel are brought here to dominate those early hilly stages. Definitely worth a try, but of course it's a gamble with a first timetrial already on the fifth day here.
Speaking of this timetrial, we do see a few pure TT-specialists like Viennet, Martin or Vlatos. We may not expect those names to fight for more than a Top-10 in the TTs though. Just my feeling.
Nazaret, Duarte, Brambilla, Shikai or Elissonde build the first "core" of 2nd tier climbers. Either some strong supporters for their GC-captains or possible KoM/stage-hunters.
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:32
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Judging on how the Giro went either Gesink or Cunego is going to build a huge gap on stage 4 and 6 with a possibly 4 mins + buffer I can see them both having huge races here especially Gesink |
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Posted on 22-11-2024 13:58
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:32
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This is going to be one hell of a race.
Here's hoping Gesink won't disappoint.
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:35
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Grand Tour Champion
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Probably don't have the class to perform well here but Valverde definitely has the potential for a stage win or two here. Big TT kilometres give Phinney a big chance but I'm going to plump for Tenorio, who knows with this AI though.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:37
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Strong field in all specialisations. I think it'll be a battle between Tenorio, Pluchkin Kritsky and Amador however.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| roturn |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:41
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That moment tsmoha opens 3 preview threads at the same time. 
Had loved to participate on this route with Keizer to be honest.
The top6 in the favourite list also the best time trialists within the GC riders. So I expect a nice fight.
Tenorio and Gesink I think will come down as losers of those 6, while the win is decided between Pluchkin and Phinney with outside chances of Amador, which is needed by UBS.
Also Kritskiy could fight for a podium here while I am not 100% sure about Dekker.
Guldhammer, Cunego had excellent Giro`s and while they will lose a lot in the TT`s, they should be right up there with the best again in the mountains to still fight for top5-7 I guess.
Contador as PCT dominator must be thought about of course. Can`t see him winning here, but he will surely be in the mix of all mentioned above and might even become best Spaniard here ahead of Tenorio.
Abal, Monsalve, Pozzovivo, Pinot could be those riders, that do decent throughout the race but still finish outside of the top10 due to the high competition. In worst case they will land behind 2-3 breakaway riders as in the Giro, where I think Keinath, Kohl, Lecuisinier, Wellens, Brenes would be decent bets for 3rd week attempts. That said, there shouldn`t be a 2nd Festina scenario with a long term leader without any support team this time.
What I am looking forward to is also Suaza. He showed great climbing skills in the first Giro mountain stage as helper. Now let`s see what he can do as a leader here. Top10 could be possible as there aren`t as many hilly stages here. Though the first week will be tough for him with some time losses I guess.
Enough of GC rider predictions. In the sprints the top4 will make the results while Tzortzakis won`t have another Giro performance in this field. Would be cool if Goss takes a stage this time in tougher field while I really hope that Bouygues is not screwed again by ignoring Roelandts also in this GT.
The puncheurs will have a shit GT here. They had lots of opportunities in the Giro and only some really scored well there. So with less opportunities, most will not score a lot in the Vuelta I think. But then again I think it`s once more Sagan to surprise in some of this hilly stages to grab a win.
Thanks for reporting this tsmoha. Know it must be not ideal with a GC rider and sprinter here for yourself. |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:43
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Will be nice to see if Contador can get a podium for the PCT team here! Also will be cool to see what Abal can do here.
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| Heine |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:46
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Been looking forward to this. Not an extremely strong team from me, but I have someone to try on all (non-TT) stages. Hopefully we will be able to steal some points here and there. Main-goal is top 10 from Monsalve and a stage win
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:48
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Classics Specialist
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While I'm not in any of the GTs they are probably the most fun races to keep an eye on, and in this race, both of my riders on loan are involved with Veilleux on Orange-KLM probably working fully as a domestique and Salinas on Metinvest, who could easily end up with a heavy load of work pacing the peloton up some of the climbs.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| Kami |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:52
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I hope Tenorio will actually perform up to his level here, unlike he did in Tirenno. A podium should definitely be manageable. But like roturn said, he might just aswell finish in the lower part of the top 10. Hopefully his TT/MO will carry him trough, and i just gotta hope he doesn't lose 10+ min in the hills like Uran did in the Giro.
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| The Rider |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:55
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Grand Tour Specialist
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roturn & LLS: You rated Contador very highly. Hoping your right. I can't see him repeating the GC podium, but let us see when the race unfolds. He has been taking Machado to the cleaners! However, it would be great to see plenty of the Spanish champ in the action and somewhere ensconced high in the top 10 in GC.
Aside from Contador it will be a real stretch for us to be the first PCT team to take a GT stage win this season, but you can never tell. It is after all Bonsucro's first GT so, for now, we will just soak it up. Thanks tsmoha.  |
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| ember |
Posted on 07-08-2015 10:55
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Pluchkin looks like a good bet for the overall, it should be between him, Tenorio and Amador, really as the gap down to the others in the mountains is significant.
For Guldhammer, he's admittedly sent here as I really wanted to have a shot at a decent result in all races this season. No doubts the route doesn't suit him at all, but we shall see.
A top 10 would be very, very good, but I can easily see him fall out of it with all those stage racers having a solid TT to back them up combined with similar riders to Guldhammer who could very well beat him here eventhough Guldhammer got the better of them in the Giro.
Several great puncheurs are great news for Guldhammer, I think, as it should increase the chance to use the hilly stages to his advantage compared to a couple of other overall contenders.
Just like in the Giro, I hope we'll be active and try to join the breakaways. We don't have quite the same climbing depth here, but Stake Laengen, Hoem and Sørtveit could all be strong enough to grab a win from a breakaway on a mountain stage.
Thanks for the preview and the massive work you're doing for the game with all the reports, tsmoha. Brilliant work, and it's incredible how fast the season is actually going! |
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 07-08-2015 11:05
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Small Tour Specialist
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Great start-list for the Vuelta after a surprisingly weaker Giro. The TT kms have brought out a lot of 56 chainring GC beasts, all of whom will have got a shock at the impact of the hilly stages at the Giro. With the likes of Bakelants here to ensure that the hilly stages go crazy, I like the balanced look of Gesink for overall (assuming his therapy for falling down over the winter months has fully sunk in!) - particularly with stages 16 and 19 being rated hilly, even though look like mountain parcours at first glance. 10 days in the GC might look quite topsy-turvy with GT luminaries with a lot of ground to make up. This may well prove the most exciting of all 3 GT's of the season.
Also good to see a strong turn out of sprinters, although most are likely to pack their bags and shuffle of home after stage 15 without a final sprint stage to slog through the mountains for.
A final Bon chance for the wildcard teams representing the PCT in the form of Buff and Bonsucro. Both bring decent line-ups with a captain who can have some bearing on the front of the race.
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 07-08-2015 11:22
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Really strong wildcard riders with Conta and Abal here. Will be keeping an eye on if any of them can beat Brajko's 6th place at the Giro.
For the win, its definetely Pluchkin's to lose. Lucky that he's the only 85 beast here. I somehow think Tenorio is going to go really well aswell, with the addet nat. bonus + the suiting parcour. He might be nr. 1 challenger for Red. Amador will end 3rd, I think. That's my prediction for podium, but with such a strong field it's really wide open for who's gonna end where in top 5, which is really interesting!
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 07-08-2015 11:26
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Both Tzortzakis guys are active here  Hope mine, who's loaned out to Bonsucro can show himself, and the other guy may as well take a sprint then, would be fun for the family.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| SotD |
Posted on 07-08-2015 11:42
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This looks very interesting. Clearly we are not going to do very well here, but I have to cross my fingers that Lecuisinier can end above Suaza and König here to take a bit of points away from Vesuvio and Becherovka.
Especially Vesuvio is looking strong with Swift here. He should do extremely well, and could be able to snatch 300+ points himself here.
Also Becherovka with Sagan could do well.
That said, it is going to look very interesting after this race, as some of the other teams further behind could score extemely well - And well above those top 5 PT teams. Things could be very close, which is always enjoyable...
Thanks a lot for the work you put into this game Tsmoha. It really is phenomenal!
My bet for the win is Pluchkin, my hope is Gesink.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 07-08-2015 11:42
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So here it is, first of two races i have been looking forward to the most in 2015 man-game season. Not surprising that Pluchkin will lead Metinvest lineup in both.
Great preview and great startlist, this should be one hell of a spectacle and nail biting time for us managers of GC favourites.
I was aware that Pluchkin is only 85climber being end here, so hopefully he will show that advantage in many of the brutally looking mountain stages. Tenorio and Amador are closest competitiors climbing wise, but someone like Gesink can be dangerous because of selective looking hilly stages. I am not too afraid of Phinney to be honest, he should not gain more in TTs then he will loose in mountains,but that will sadly depend on daily form. There are so many options that can happen, i will just hope for Pluchkin being attentive and ready to strike.
We have a win goal here, but i will be happy with any of the podium places, anything worse would be a disaster. Also stage win is a must with such a superior climber.
Salinas should be a great help Kentaurus and i also hope we will see him pulling the front for Pluchkin, together with Karnulin, as those are the two strongest climbing domestiques in our squad (pretty weak i know). 
Good luck to all!
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| jph27 |
Posted on 07-08-2015 12:22
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Pinot will hopefully go for a top 15 on GC, Elissonde for stage wins and a top 30 on GC, and then Vanderbiest for the sprints - plus hopefully lots of breakaway appearances. Have to hope the TTs don't damage us too much and Pinot doesn't collapse in the final few days as at the Giro.
And thanks once again to tsmoha, fantastic effort once again. |
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| Smowz |
Posted on 07-08-2015 12:25
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Hmm quite a nice GC line up here. PouPou Pluichkin starts out as favourite he does have runner up tag, you feel Tenorio, Phinney or Amador could be the danger men.
Some real left field selections here also. Cunego is romantic choice, but this could be a tough one out on the barren Spanish climbs. Gesink is known to me as GT avoider so that one will be interesting to see Alex tearing his hair out. Bakelants is the hilly punchy gamble that so often does not pay dividends thanks to pissing breakaways.
Sprint field better quality then at Giro. Should be good chances for fatty men in first two weeks. My team may build train, have Santos here who should be good last man for Guano - Swift will be looking to dominate using Vesuvio uber train against Lo Cic and Vuelta 2014 big sprint star MOHs.
I am going to cheer for Amador for win keep red jersey in Latin America!
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 07-08-2015 13:35
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Nice preview tsmoha. This should definitely be a great race. I'll have to pick Pluchkin for the win. I would love to see Amador on the podium, but I think guys like Gesink/Phinney/Cunego/Contador could definitely challenge for that. Since Nibali has majorly under-performed this year and this is Amador's first race, it should be interesting to learn how his stats translate into this version of PCM.
I hope the hilly stages are easy on me. Amador also usually has an advantage when there are lots of TT kilometers, but in this field it actually looks like he is half a step behind a lot of these guys. But I really need a win if my team is going to stay afloat, and a win is going to be very unlikely.
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