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Tirreno-Adriatico Discussion
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 21-06-2015 17:49
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 Tirreno - Adriatico
The 7 stage Tirreno - Adriatico is the first real glimpse of the climbers and the stage racers in the PT this year. Clashing with Paris - Nice it leads to an interesting start list as usually the two start lists are relatively even in terms of the quality of the leaders. This year is bound to be no different!
History:
The race has been in the Man-Game Calendar since 2007, so has a long and great history. The 2014 version of the race was won by Simone Ponzi of Good Energy who also took home three stages, the bonus seconds no doubt helping him towards his victory, but he is not present this year for the first time in a while and this no doubt opens up an opportunity to everyone else. This edition of the race was however suited to such riders as Boasson Hagen finished 2nd and Bakelants 4th. This has occurred in the past as well as some top hilly riders have finished very high up in the General Classification.
| 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | | 1st | Simone Ponzi | Damiano Cunego |  Frank Schleck | | 2nd |  Edvald Boasson Hagen | Simone Ponzi |  Jan Bakelants | | 3rd | Damiano Cunego | Edvald Boasson Hagen | Philippe Gilbert | | 4th | Jan Bakelants | Dimitri Claeys | Simone Ponzi | | 5th | Frank Schleck | Cesare Di Maggio |  Chris Froome |
Race Profile:
Stage Racers
| | | MO | HIL | TT |  | Spilak | | 85 | 82 | 77 |  | Schleck | | 85 | 75 | 74 |  | Tenorio | | 84 | 76 | 80 |  | Denifl | | 84 | 76 | 72 |  | Martin | | 82 | 77 | 73 |  | Sicard | | 82 | 78 | 76 |  | Nibali | | 82 | 77 | 77 |  | Kritskiy | | 82 | 75 | 80 | | Monsalve | | 81 | 76 | 72 |  | Pozzovivo | | 80 | 76 | 72 |  | Keinath | | 79 | 76 | 75 |
The man at the top of the list, Simon Spilak, is no doubt the favourite to win this year's Tirreno - Adriatico. He is the top Climber in the field and by far the top rider on the hills as well, much better than the other riders who are no doubt good stage racers in their own right. The battle for the podium and for Top 5 and Top 10 in the GC will be a thrilling one, as there are 8 very good climbers who all have a fairly equal hill stat. Although in Schleck, Tenorio and Denifl there are three more top contenders and they will all try to knock Spilak off the top spot. In Monsalve, Denifl also has a top domestique who will no doubt be of great assistance.
Climbers
| | | MO | Hil | TT |  | Alarcon | | 84 | 73 | 66 |  | Henao Montoya | | 82 | 71 | 71 |  | Dombrowski | | 82 | 73 | 69 |  | Sella | | 81 | 74 | 66 | | Morton | | 80 | 74 | 71 |  | Ratiy | | 80 | 70 | 74 | | Fothen | | 80 | 73 | 76 |  | Nerz | | 80 | 72 | 73 |  | Duarte | | 80 | 68 | 75 |  | Cattaneo | | 80 | 69 | 77 |  | Brenes | | 79 | 73 | 69 |  | Elissonde | | 78 | 73 | 63 |  | Shikai | | 78 | 71 | 76 |
There is a fairly long list of good climbers attending this race but one would have to think that they may struggle to keep up on some of the stages, particularly stage 4. They do however have a good chance at fighting for a great result on stages 5 and 6 which feature two juicy looking Mountain top finishes. Alarcon will certainly be the top of this group and will hope to get Red Bull a good start to their Stage race campaign. There are a bunch of other good climbers, one to note is Sella who rides here for Siam who achieved a wildcard to the race, they will certainly be hoping for him to do them justice. The Oz duo of Morton and Pozzovivo will no doubt work together for a good result.
Sprinters
| | | SPR | ACC | HIL | | Degenkolb | | 83 | 81 | 69 | | Vanderbiest | | 82 | 77 | 64 |  | Howard | | 82 | 79 | 68 |  | Roelandts | | 81 | 80 | 71 | | Bennati | | 81 | 73 | 66 | | Zabel | | 81 | 79 | 69 |  | Guardini | | 80 | 82 | 64 |
The sprinters of the PT are given a few chances here in Italy. Stages 2 and 7 are no doubt going to be targeted by such riders. Some of those who can survive a small climb are also likely to fight it out against each other on stage 3. The big German John Degenkolb is the top sprinter here and will hope to perform well, Howard, Roelandts and Zabel will also hope to do well and these four will be most likely to survive and fight at the finish on stage 3. They are highly unlikely to finish high up in the GC due to the tough terrain in the latter stages.
Prologue Specialists
| | | PRO | | Cancellara | | 81 | | Kittel | | 81 | | Ford | | 81 | | Zmorka | | 80 | | Brändle | | 79 |
All of them are here for the opening stage, it is really just a contest to see who wears the first leaders jersey of the race going into the second stage. If they gain enough time they may be able to hold on for a few stages as well. Cancellara and Kittel are the two main favourites but Ford will hope for a great result as well.
Full Start List:
Overall, it should be one great race, it has a little bit for everyone and no one rider is brilliant on all terrains. The fight for the win should be a good one but Spilak will be the man everyone else will be looking to beat!
PS: I am sorry if there are any issues regarding riders I have listed not in the start list. This issue has come as the Race Participation file doesn't match the actual start list which has resulted in a few issues, I have tried to sort out all of them but may have missed a couple.
Full credits to Luis Leon Sanchez for the preview
Edited by roturn on 21-06-2015 19:35
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| roturn |
Posted on 21-06-2015 17:52
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Nice preview LLS!
Btw. The GC bet for Tirreno-Adriatico ends tomorrow morning. So check out if you haven`t seen yet.
Spilak surely the big favourite due to his hill skills. Then again Andy Schleck dominated in last years mountains and with 2 tough stages here, he might annoy Spilak once more there.
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 21-06-2015 17:53
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World Champion
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Great preview.
With how the season is going, well, I expect utter shitness again. Brenes could go in attacks, I doubt it. Kump could do well, somewhere, maybe.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 21-06-2015 17:57
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Just hoping for Pozzovivo/Morton to contesr for the key stages here. Top-10 will be tough, but those two should at least try and go for two in the Top-20. Really need a somewhat better "moral boost" with our first personal goals did fail.
Ford hopefully taking the prologue. Not sure for how long he will keep his streak of consistency though..
Thanks for the preview, LLS. And for doing this race, Gusta 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 16:13
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| Kami |
Posted on 21-06-2015 17:59
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A top 3 should definitely be manageable by Tenorio. It isn't the ideal race for him with not that much TT km's, but there weren't that many other options available due to race clashes. So yeah, i'm hoping for a top 3.
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| Crommy |
Posted on 21-06-2015 18:19
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Spilak should probably win here.
Can't wait to see if Roelandts will do better than his fairly poor season last year. I'm hoping for at least one top 3 finish from him
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 19:35
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Hoping for a few good results in the sprints and a decent GC result for Shikai (or a nice breakaway win or something)
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| Smowz |
Posted on 21-06-2015 19:56
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Well the mountain stages here are the nastiest looking of the season, this should be mountain slugfest.
anarchon cannot miss this. But question is that nasty looking hill stage, AI do your worst.
Please anything but frigging Ford in that chrono. Scrub that anyone but skittles those two lard asses ain't half the men Fab is, let him have one last chrono please I plead you.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 19:58
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Demare should like the rather lumpy nature of stages 2 and 3 as well as stage 7 who will favour the sprinters getting through the previous stages the best, so I hope he participates in the sprints and maybe comes from behind in the last 500 metres for a good result or two.
He has to do with really weak support here though as the main focus of our sprint department obviously lies in Bayern at the moment.
The stage racers are plenty even despite the race clashes, so a Top 20 from Nerz would be a good effort already.
It would be great if Herklotz attacks somewhere for some TV time in a break and maybe Bongiorno is allowed to go clear somewhere later in a stage in his home race too.
For the overall, I hope Spilak can use his favourite status as an advantage for once.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 21-06-2015 20:00
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Sprinter
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Nice preview LLS! This should be a good race. Nibali should be comfortably in the top 10, especially with his nationality bonus.
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| Heine |
Posted on 21-06-2015 20:13
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Sent a strong team and got riders to contend on every stage. Denifl will be the big boss, hopefully he can stay with the Spilak etc on the climbs and get a good result from that. Should have great support in Monsalve and Brändle
Zabel for the flay stages, I hoped we would miss some sprinters here and that he can surive until stae 7
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 21-06-2015 20:13
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Thanks for the kind words guys.
Should be an awesome contest!
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| ember |
Posted on 21-06-2015 21:39
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Really nice to see this one get going! 
I'm looking a lot forward to it as well, finally Dan Martin will get the chance to lead for us in his debut race in our colours. Looking at the start list, a top 5 looks difficult, but that's what I hope for, at least if the AI handles the hilly stage well.
Stage 4 made the decision to send him here easy, as I think his hill and acceleration as a GC rider should see him do well there and hopefully gain some time on the better climbers. At least that's what he has to do if he's going to land that top 5, I think. Though, with six riders at 84/85 MO, it will obviously be difficult 
Spilak must be the big favourite due to his hill stat, he could potentially take minutes there, but bonus seconds and with it the yellow jersey will probably also be enough, as it should be difficult to take yellow from him in the mountains for the top climbers as well.
Will be interesting to see how PCM14 does the mountain stages compared to Schleck/Alarcon domination on PCM13 slightly due to the importance of the acceleration. If it's the same as last season, Schleck must also fancy his chances if he survives the hilly stage.
I've got no one here for the sprints and only six riders due to the clashes, but hopefully that won't stop us from trying to join breakaways, as all riders except Martin should be potential winners from a breakaway on the right stage if they're allowed to go clear. Fingers crossed!
Thanks for the nice preview, Luis Leon Sanchez! And I'm looking a lot forward to the reports
Edited by ember on 21-06-2015 21:55
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| Roman |
Posted on 22-06-2015 00:51
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Superb preview!
Spilak looks indeed like a rider to beat here. With the presence of another 4 MO84+ riders here it likely looks like a good decision to not sending Velits here. Hopefully Howard will actually sprint here after his fiasco in Qatar.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 22-06-2015 04:02
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One of the few races Fothen and Ratiy are in together. A top 10 overall would be nice, but it's going to be difficult. Great preview btw
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| CountArach |
Posted on 22-06-2015 04:34
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My money is on Spilak.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 22-06-2015 07:17
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Great preview, this is how it should look like. 
We are here with several different minor goals, one of these is Zmorka getting a top5 and possibly a white jersey in the opening prologue. Guardini can hopefully challenge for a top5 in one of the flatter stages and Karnulin is here for a top25-30 in GC. No bigger goals really...
Spilak looks like man to beat, and i expect some of the one dimensional riders like Henao or Alarcon to fail somehow.
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 22-06-2015 07:19
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 22-06-2015 08:58
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Hoping for something good from Dombrowski but I would imagine he'll struggle in this field. Can't see beyond Spilak for this (that's where my money is). Thanks Gustavovskiy.
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| Heine |
Posted on 22-06-2015 09:07
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Some strange results, but really happy about Denifl getting a great result for me, even stealing a second on Spilak. Not expected at all
Brändle at 7th is ok, a nice enough result. Good win for Kittel though
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 22-06-2015 09:13
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Lol, are you kidding me, Zmorka 36th with 80 prologue stat? Sure, i am close to writting this season off, because this randomness makes no sense and is everything but fun for me, i will just have to wait for a two GTs of Pluchkin to see us gaatting any solid points i suppose...
Thanks for the report though Gusta. And congrats to Kittel/Vesuvio. Funny that Ford delivers again, i have never seen him having a day off.
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 22-06-2015 09:14
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