As said earlier, I planned to do a PT check for the 2014 season. So here it is: My preview over all 22 PT teams and a predicted ranking.
Will try to add at least 4 a day.
Keep in mind that the transfer in/out riders are not all transfers, but the ones, that should make the most impact in teh 2014 season. So don`t expect that I add great future talents in there for example.
Also the team ranking system with stars might look weird on a first view. But I made an overview over all 22 teams for 5 terrains and so I created an own system for every single terrain, which is not necessarily the same on another terrain. So 2 stars in mountains might be totally different point/stat wise than a 2 star rating in sprints for example.
After all teams are posted, a final ranking prediction will be posted to make fun with after the season.
Also the different length of the previews might have something to do with a one dimensionality of the team`s strength sometimes, but could also be because of my time at that moment, when I wrote it. That said, not all teams are written yet.
Edited by roturn on 04-04-2014 19:42
The team replaced the three most important leavings with very similar riders and added some more depth with Levarlet, Kruijswijk and Sibilla, who gets a chance to prove himself as a teams leader.
I really like their balance on all terrains and might even see them in the top5 in the end.
Next to the mentioned transfers, they also got some nice stat gains by Daryl Impey in especially, who should be one of the best sprinters this year seeing his strength in the hillier races. Also other talents have made the next step and improve their depth.
Star of the team though is Boasson Hagen and with his training he became the strongest puncheur in the Man Game. So expect him to have a huge season and eventually even the best scorer 2014?
Their amount of talents is pretty impressive and so we should see lots of Scandinavian riders being able to do well on Pro Tour level in future.
Special mention for Sondre Holst Enger, Vegard Stake Laengen and Christopher Juul-Jensen, who should become nice riders in years to come.
Just by looking on the main transfers it`s good to see that the team might have lost a bit of their depth. While the stage racers were replaced immediately, even though older and a bit weaker imo and Forero is replaced by improved Howard, there clearly is no replacement for a guy like Coppel. You could argue that a maxed Sergent now can replace him in TTT`s but he is far from the Coppel`s strength.
With Peter Sagan the team was able to get a great puncheur to strengthen their Ardennes team in comparison to 2013 and also improved König will help on the climbing department. But also the loss of the Nepomnyachsniy twins and their cobbled depth with Verbist will probably hurt this year.
That all said, the next Czech cycling generation is already showing themselves and should make it an awesome team in 1-2 years with a huge Czech core.
With a trained Peter Velits into a great GT racer as also a nice boost for Bewley making him one of the top3 sprinters or eventually even the best, the team should score pretty well this season even though the team depends mainly on those two. Rujano this season and Sagan in the next seasons should backup those two nicely.
Mountain:
*****
Hill:
**
Sprint:
*****
Cobbles:
*****
Time Trial:
***
Bouygues Telecom
Rider In
Rider Out
Jan Bakelants
Jaime Suaza
Daniel Teklehaimanot
Guillaume Levarlet
Morgan Kneisky
Adrien Petit
After one season in PCT the team made the direct way back to PT again. Some of their most important riders last season like Taaramae, Roelandts or Martin are still part of the team and build a great core.
But the new star surely is somebody else. Jan Bakelants is joining the team as one of the very best puncheurs and gives the team a good chance in the Ardennes. Also Bakelants will become a rich man I guess.
That addition makes the loss of French puncheur Levarlet less bad I think as it surely is an improvement. The mountain terrain though has weakened with that move as Suaza had to leave the team and the loaning in rider Teklehaimanot won`t be able to replace him.
Kneisky and Petit are nice additions to their depth but won`t become the biggest point scorer.
Most of their riders are in a great age for professional cycling but they are not known for their great talents, so not much is coming in future. That said their core of Bakelants, Martin, Taaramae, Roelandts still can score a lot for at least 3 more years.
Taaramae with some hill and time trial training makes him a more complete stage race, who surely should have a nice season even though there are several riders now being stronger climbers.
Mountain:
****
Hill:
*****
Sprint:
****
Cobbles:
**
Time Trial:
***
Festina-Canal+
Rider In
Rider Out
Simon Spilak
Alberto Contador
Riccardo Ricco
Markus Fothen
Vadim Ratiy
Diego Ulissi
Gianpaolo Caruso
Geert Steurs
Gatis Smukulis
Pierre Rolland
Arnaud Demare
Anthony Lavoine
By looking on the long list of riders leaving, you see a huge rebuild here. Not less than the 4 strongest riders left the team. So the question is: Was the team able to replace those?
The answer is yes. A clear yes for me actually.
Contador and Fothen are both quality riders. True. But they were replaced by Spilak and Ricco. They are younger and in especially Spilak should be able to have a great season after his mountain training being one of the top climbers now having good chances for wins in 2014.
As Ricco might have to ride the races, Ulissi had done in the past, you might expect Ratiy to race the more mountaineous stage races. So in the end it was a 3 for 3 replacement with a similar amount of quality.
Their depth is pretty awesome and several of those backup riders are not maxed yet, so the team might have one of the best talent developing you might see in the Pro Tour and still being able to fight for the top spots.
Lecuisinier is a future great and already a nice help this year. Tzorztakis might become a huge sprinter from Greece. Plus they have Keukeleire, David, Vasyliv, Koretzky...
Sprint wise it`s still Guerao being their main sprinter this season but the improved talents and Demare on a loan deal surely gives them a lot of opportunities to fight for stage wins everywhere.
Only their cobbled focus is totally gone with Steurs, who wasn`t replaced. Still a team that surely can be expected to at least top 5 if not being on the podium in the end.
With Velits and Sanchez Gil two good point scorers left the team but in the end were replaced by two strong climbers in Henao Montoya and Brambilla. So mountain depth became better while there was no perfect replacement for the hilly races. Vanendert at least got a small hill training.
Next to the two mentioned additions the team has still a clear leader in Robert Gesink, one of the most complete stage racers in the Man Game but actually starts to lack some climbing strength in comparison to all those trained stage racers. Still a great rider to have in every team and a sure point scorer. With the other 3 additions the team got much more depths for the mountains and should belong to the stronger teams there.
Nobody knows how alexkr will use the leaders. But I think Gesink could be used for quite a few hilly stage races and classics this season as they don`t have a strong enough point scorer in those races otherwise. Vanendert, Sinkeldam and Castroviejo add enough depth for solid support.
Sinkeldam and Broers are also their only chances for decent results on the pavement. But actually every single top10 result there would already be a huge success. Same for the sprints as the team lacks a great sprinter. Talent Wesley Kreder made a huge step after last season and could actually surprse on harder finishes. But he might need another year before he can ride for top results.
Also their former monopol of top time trialists seems to be gone. They still have Gesink, Posthuma, De Kort and promising talent Walsleben but they probably won`t take the top spots in the TTT events this season. Other teams have taken over.
Feature though is not looking bad for the team. Their leaders are in a good age and some talents are looking really, really well: Stancu, Walsleben, Kreder, Pantano Gomez, Majka and yes, even Nechita will give them a nice depth in the next seasons.
This season though will become a tough one I think. Too much they are reliable on Gesink and the mountain squad in especially. But the PT probably was never as strong in the mountains as in 2014. So every missed point there will hurt the team a lot and so it`s one of the hardest to predict. Can be top10, but I think the team has to look down to the late top15 and with bad luck even further down.
Probably my favourite team.
Hard to judge the own team as unbiased as possible. Probably won`t do well with it.
The team was mainly scoring with Maxime Vantomme in sprint classics last year, Bellis/Geschke in hilly races and Boom in time trial races. Of those 4 only Boom survived the transfer season and is the last remaining leader.
Therefore a long list of additions. Keizer and Gomez Marchante add them some strength in the mountains, which was absolutely no focus in the previous 2 seasons. But both probably rarely will belong to the top10-15 climbers in the field. So it won`t be easy to deliver top results.
For the hills Bellis was replaced by Lulu Sanchez and Roux. Both could score some points but the same issue again. They don`t belong to the top puncheurs in the league but at least Sanchez Gil is a decent climber and time trialist as well making him more complete than a pure puncheur.
The cobbles also rarely were raced by the team so far even though Boom celebrated a huge win in the E3 Prijs. With Vanmarcke, Ballan and Nooytens the team has good depth there and could fight for top10 results. But Vanmarcke might need some training before he can indeed reach the top results.
The loss of Vantomme wasn`t replaced with the same value. Instead 3 unmaxed sprinters have to fight for some points now. Guardini on a loan deal and Nizzolo probably with the better chances. Both will be stronger next season but could get a few top10`s already this year.
Krieger could also jump into the top10 very rarely I guess but his best race should be Avenir to be honest.
The team`s strongest terrain might be the time trials. With Keizer and Schädlich the team got two excellent riders against the clock and also Boom, Dumoulin, Sanchez etc. make it one of the strongest TTT squads.
The team in total probably is the weakest in the division and their only hope to avoid relegation is their balance to score small points in every race. But will those point be enough to stay in the PT? Unlikely I think but at least the small wages (495k maximum) allow the team to stay together in PCT in case.
Probably the most loyal manager coming to renewals and transfers. You rarely see anyone leaving the team or being traded away. Instead the team slowly develops some great Spanish talents making them some of the best.
Madrazo and Tenorio proved to be some of the best as both can call themselves a GT winner. Possible that both will win another GT in 2014. Madrazo surely is a top3 stage racer in the division and Tenorio got some more training moving him even closer to the very best. So in total two riders that guarantee top results in all mountain races, they participate.
Valls and ageing López Garcia are great backups for those races, where their leaders can`t participate. Both should be able to get decent results and with some more climbing domestiques they are one of the best for the mountains.
Jesus Del Nero is a great rider that left the team. A perfect breakaway rider you might say as he surely is always one of the strongest in the breakaway. But in the end the team often has to work for their leaders and so breakaway riders are not needed as much.
Well. Let`s stop talking about mountains and look at the other terrains. Okay. Let`s stop talking about other terrains. The team just does not like any other terrain and surely is not looking forward to all those hilly, cobbled or sprint races as they barely score a point there.
The leaders just can`t spend their limited race days on the hilly races and Insausti, Sanz, Reynes or Rodriguez Segarra are no point scorers on their terrain at all. So in all those races without their top2-4, they will most likely end up without big points but should be visible in breakaways.
Ablenado and Gonzalez Salas need a special mention as both are the teams biggest talents and should do pretty well on their terrain in 2-3 seasons. But in general the team most likely will keep their core of Madrazo, Tenorio and Valls for quite some time due to their young age.
Ranking wise a tough call. Can the duo score enough points in the GT`s to avoid relegation? Probably. But will it be enough for a top 5 spot? Probably not. More likely it will be similar to last year where the team was not too far off the relegation zone and if their leaders have one unlucky crash at the wrong time, then even relegation could become possible. More than any other team Santander needs their two leaders to score a lot.
Mountain:
*****
Hill:
*
Sprint:
*
Cobbles:
*
Time Trial:
***
Simply Red Bull
Rider In
Rider Out
Jerome Coppel
Emanuelle Sella
Jose Alarcon
Michael Van Stayen
Benoit Vaugrenard
Juan Van Heerden
Maciej Bodnar
Jack Bobridge
Bruno Santos
Michel Sibilla
Huge chances for the team in their 2nd PT season. Except for Cancellara all great point scorers from last season left the team. In especially Van Staeyen is a huge loss but also Van Heerden was a good part of their 2 top sprinter squad.
The additions of three decent sprinters Santos, Colbrelli and Soupe were necessary after their loss but none of those can even replace them a tiny bit. Also only one of those (Santos) is a real part of the team as the other two are loaned in.
With ageing Sella leaving the team as well and the younger but pretty similar strong Alarcon joining, this is a good swap imo. I have a good feeling actually about Alarcon, who looks stronger than ever. I predict he will have a similar good season as in 2012, when he dominated the PCT mountains.
The hills are still a weak terrain for the team as they don`t really have a strong leader there. Juul-Jensen and Prevar might be able to get some free roles here and there. But in the biggest races top results would be a surprise.
Cancellara is still the team`s star. And should once again be the best scorer. In the cobbled races he still fights for the win even though the backup is a bit weaker without Sibilla. But Spartacus is just too good to miss the important sections.
Time trials are huge for the team as they belong to the best with the Cancellara/Coppel duo. Also behind those the team has enough strength to go for the win in TTT`s.
Viviani and Juul-Jensen look like good riders next season when they are maxed. Also some other talents should be stronger next season eventhough the team lacks the very best young prospects.
Ranking wise hard to predict. Cancellara is a solid scorer. Coppel should score here and there. But then a lot depends on Alarcon. If he finds his form, then a top5-10 is possible for the team. If he can`t score a lot, then a top10-15 is probable. But at least the depth is good enough to avoid relegation clearly. No worries for the team.
In comparison to others a quite calm transfer season. Mikhail Ignatiev is the only big rider out but is replaced by their own talent Malori, who made his final step and is a a real time trial machine even though not as strong as the Russian.
Surely their biggest improvement is in the sprinter section with the "cheap" addition of Jacopo Guarnieri, who is still a bit overpaid but in that crazy free agent market quite a steal still. Surely the chance to become one of the best sprinters with some training and already a sure candidate for some stage wins.
In the mountains definitely one of the weaker teams even though the addition of Faiers surely gives the team some more depth. But actually they are just waiting on Cattaneo to full improve, which unfortunately takes one more year than possible. So it`s still 2 years until we will see his full strength.
Nothing changes in the hills and cobbles as their British trio is still expected to get the results on the paves while Ponzi still belongs to the best puncheurs in the division being able to score a lot. Probably their strongest point scorer in the end.
Talent wise some great riders next to Cattaneo. Palini, Moser or Battaglin surely will add a nice depth there in 1-2 seasons.
ING - Pro Cycling Team is another team joining the PT fun.
With Romain Sicard the team spend a lot into their new star. Now he has to deliver big times in his first maxed season. Can he bring the Tour de France win back to France?
Having a super overpaid leader makes it hard to bring enough depth around him. So don`t expect the team to be very strong in mountain or hill races without him. Young Aru still needs one season while there is not much strength in the hilly races at all.
Standing out though is their time trial line up. Possibly the strongest in the division. The addition of a trained Fiedler, Bouet, Rolland, Clement and Navardauskas next to Van Winden and Zabriskie makes it a power train and the favourite for all team time trials, where at least half of those will take place. Eventually even gives Sicard a good gap in the Tour de France before the first mountains come.
No leaders on the cobbles as also being one of the weaker teams in sprints where Kip is their stand out rider there but might not be able to still participate in the sprints due to his weak climbing over speedbumps.
In total the team needs Sicard to score hugely in his 46 race days because strong results in the two time trial races won`t be enough. And relegation could cost them a lot as Sicard won`t accept a big paycut after this season.
The team definitely lost a lot of riders, that delivered a lot of results in the last couple of years like Monfort, Cobo, Lloret or De la Fuente. All were ageing, so it might have been the best chance to trade them this season for a good value.
With Ivars, Bauer and some other signings they at least keep a good amount of helpers in the climbing area, but definitely the depth on the hilly area is missing a bit strength.
Still having a bit weaker Cunego, who still is one of the strongest and Claeys for the hilly classics is a great value. Eventually Cunego can have a last chance to go for a GT victory, but a podium is more likely.
The addition of Burghardt and Verbist improve their cobbled squad by a lot. If the German can finally improve and deliver as you would expect, then he would be a great scorer for the team. And even though the depth on the cobbles is not the very best, you should expect them to be visible late in those races.
Ciolek out, ageing Bennati in seems like a good move for this season but is not a long term trade as the Italian is already on the downside of his career. With the unfortunate loss of Stauff the backup is not as strong as last year and Croket and Van Hoff won`t score too much I guess.
That all said, it has to be said again: The team has a great scoring leader on all terrains and belongs to the top5 in the Pro Tour because of that. In other races without those it will be interesting to see how much Ivars/Moschella etc. can deliver on their own.
Mountain:
****
Hill:
*****
Sprint:
****
Cobbles:
*****
Time Trial:
**
Pendleton's Twicer
Rider In
Rider Out
Joseph Dombrowski
Thomas Faiers
Jonathan McEvoy
The team`s core around Gilbert, Gusev, Martin and Kohl stays the same as last year. And it might be the last season as 3 of those are 32 already.
But with Faier`s replacement of Dombrowski the team made a big step forward as he is already a similar strong rider but has still a lot of potential.
So without the big winners but top5-10 GC riders they should do pretty well in all mountain races. In especially Martin got a bit stronger in the off-season and can be expected to perform well.
In the hills it`s all about Gilbert to get the top results. Everything from winning in the Ardennes to top10 is possible. A weaker result would be disappointing actually, so scoring there is secured as well. Lutsenko is their talent for the future and a good support in 2014.
The cobbles are for Gusev in his last strong season. He needs to step up a bit, then he should be able to score quite a few points this season. With Senechal the team got another huge talent for the future. But he is still 1-2 seasons from being a valuable scorer.
So in all 3 areas they have a huge talent to replace their ageing stars, which proves some good long term planning.
That said the sprinters are almost not given in the team and so we shouldn`t expect them to take part in any mass sprint. That will cost the team a lot of points but due to their depth in the other races, they should be able to avoid relegation. But if their leaders don`t deliver, it will be a long season as the biggest point scorers are missing.
The team did just make a few moves, but those were mainly big ones.
Despite the fact, that their mountain strength was already limited last season with Rujano only, they traded him without a real replacement. In a division with so many mountain races this will surely hurt the team a lot.
Therefore their not given focus on the hills in 2013 totally changed. With Roche and Ginanni the team got two quality puncheurs. First one might even be able to score some points in the mountain races while Ginanni got some training to make him a top5 puncheur in PT. Also Izagirre was added to their depth and has still a bit room to improve. So their 3 biggest signings were all to strengthen the hilly squad.
We don`t have to talk about the cobbled and sprint section as the team already belonged to the very best last season and did make many changes there. Tom Boonen surely got a bit weaker again but still is a absolute star and possibly being still one of the top sprinters in the division as also a top cobbler.
With Nolf, De Vocht and an improved Kluge the depth in the cobbles is brilliant and also Mohs and improved Degenkolb show their impressive amount of top sprinters.
A leadout of Maaskant-Kluge-Mohs-Degenkolb-Boonen is more or less the best possible in the Man Game.
In total they improved their squad a lot but they need their top stars Boonen, Ginanni and Roche to score a lot to avoid being thrown back in the rankings due to their weak mountain squad.
So everything is possible here. Top10-top20. More likely around the first though as the scoring potential of 2-3 riders is very high.
Mountain:
*
Hill:
*****
Sprint:
*****
Cobbles:
*****
Time Trial:
*
Prio - Porto
Rider In
Rider Out
Tiago Machado
Ruben Plaza
Markus Fothen
Francisco Ventoso
Rui Costa
Jose Mendes
Pedro Nicácio
Marc Machado
The next team stepping up from the PCT and the next, that overpaid a lot for their new star. Tiago Machado is an excellent stage racer for sure and even a potential GT winner. Surely the investment might pay off if he keeps them in the division.
But the team made more big moves and actually should end up ahead of the relegation zone. Ageing Fothen can still top5 in the GT`s and also Rui Costa has to be watched in this years hilly classics as he got a nice improvement.
Avelino could surprise some top sprinters actually and is good for good results but I wouldn`t expect huge scoring from him to be honest. Same for Caldeira.
With the loss of Marc Machado you probably won`t see a lot in the cobbled races. So the team is mainly about climbing, where I would expect quite a bit from those even though the depth is not perfect.
In future though with Rafael Reis, the team should have a great stage racer alongside some other nice talents from Portugal.
This season it`s all up to the top 3-4 riders to score enough to invest more next season. Avoiding relegation must be the goal, but if their stars score as much as I think, they are able to do, then this shouldn`t be a big issue.
Mountain:
****
Hill:
***
Sprint:
***
Cobbles:
*
Time Trial:
**
Vesuvio-Accumalux
Rider In
Rider Out
Jaime Suaza
Mwangi Samwel
Romain Feillu
Steven Caethoven
Chen Shikai
Marcel Barth
Fredrik Strand Galta
Toms Sjkujins
Keeping their leaders with the Schleck brothers and Swift surely will work in 2014 as well delivering many points. That said, Frank is no longer as strong as before as he starts to regress. Still a valuable point scorer. Schleck as one of the best climbers still even though some other riders closed the gap and might look stronger now, while Swift still might be the best sprinter in the Pro Tour. At least one of the top3.
Gastauer and Skujins were a luxus issue. First improved a lot and could backup Frank a lot this season. Not sure how his season is planned. But in case he gets some freedome, he could be a valuable point scorer as well. Otherwise an elite helper for Frank. Skujins though could replace Schleck next season when coming back from the loan deal.
Samwel might be a loss but then again he was immediately replaced by more one dimension climber Suaza, who at least should be able to stay with Andy for most of the final climb. But he probably won`t be the best point scorer on his own due to his weak backup stats.
Also Caethoven was 1:1 replaced by Feille. Probably even a bit stronger leadout for Swift. So sprints should work very well in all races including their top3 sprinters.
While the cobbles are not a focus, the TTT`s shouldn`t be too bad. Kittel has a huge machine and also De Gendt, Porte or Jungels will add enough speed to provide less time loss than some other teams.
In general a very strong team. One of the best with Festina, Wikipedia and 1-2 more I think. And future is looking great with the addition of stage race talent Galta as also some self developed talents such as Kirsch, Skujins, Gastauer, Jungels...
So everything but a podium would surprise me.
Mountain:
*****
Hill:
****
Sprint:
*****
Cobbles:
*
Time Trial:
***
VolksWagen-Mapei
Rider In
Rider Out
Emanuele Sella
Martijn Keizer
Yonathan Monsalve
Vadim Ratiy
Domenik Klemme
Damien Gaudin
Filippo Pozzato
Matthias Kessler
Ivan Kovalev
Jaime Alberto Castañeda
Nacer Bouhanni
As PCT promoter, Volkswagen saw a lot of changes as all other promoting teams more or less.
In especially the stage race swap of Keizer/Ratiy for Sella/Monsalve is huge. In my opinion a great swap for Volkswagen. Sure, you could argue that Keizer and Ratiy are 26 only but they are not ready for huge point scoring in PT without training.
Meanwhile Sella is a stronger climber and could be the best point scorer of those 4 in 2014. If so, then his points could keep the team above the relegation zone and the deal paid off. Then Monsalve will be even stronger next year when reaching his maximum and immediately becoming a great stage racer, who could become a GT podium rider with some training.
The hilly department became really strong with the addition/training of Klemme. Together with Flügel he is building a nice duo, who might score the best when not racing the same races I think and as both are capable to climb tougher climbs as well, they might have a small advantage over other puncheurs. Also Pozzato adds depth there as he can score a lot of points on easier hilly stages with his strong sprint. Problem could be to use this trio the best way avoiding to get unlucky results when the team is choosing the wrong leader.
In the cobbles Zepuntke can already ride into the top10 this year I believe. At least coming close and once when maxed he is one of the favourites of course. Together with Pozzato and Teunissen, the team should be able to score quite well here even though they won`t be able to beat the best cobbled teams.
Sprints are (still) the weakest area. Zabel is not yet ready for huge wins but might get a few notable results. Also Pozzato and Bouhanni could do well in a few sprints. But as two of those are not maxed yet, future is not looking bad at all.
For stage races with TTT´s the team might not be the best, but Brädnle, Kovalev and Haugard at least reduce the loss quite a lot and coming to Haugard, we see another huge talent. Incredible amount of unmaxed riders here.
So in best way their transfers secure them the stay in PT and I guess it will be around the top15 actually. So in the next 1-2 years the team will be incredibly strong and eventually being able to fight for the PT crown?
Mountain:
****
Hill:
****
Sprint:
**
Cobbles:
***
Time Trial:
**
Wikipedia
Rider In
Rider Out
Luke Durbridge
Matthew Goss
Ben King
Wikipedia keeps their status of being the team to beat in 2014! The team is strong enough to win the PT division again.
Let´s just look at their stage racers. True. Phinney has lost a bit on the stronger climbers. But he is just very complete and his timetrialling will always give him an advantage. Denifl got a huge boost and became the better climber but less complete rider. Still GT top5 is possible for him. And the depth behind is great. Pinot, Talansky (not maxed yet), Mai and Atapuma will help them a lot staying with their leaders.
The hills are also very suited for the team. Van Garderen is the star here but might lack a bit to the best. Still with improved and not finished McCarthy (the next star of the team?), Meyer, Landa and Kinney enough support to close a lot of gaps. So expect them to score well here.
Time trials? Sure. Phinney, Bookwalter, Van Rensburg, Durbridge, Robert, Li... Good enough to get nice TTT results, even though it shouldn`t be enough to win against the divisions strongest. But the Tour de France TTT should move Phinney into a good positon already.
Also the cobbles suit the team. Summerhill became a better cobbler with the years and this season he should do very well and eventually even win a classic? With luck yes, but a regular top5 scoring is also nice.
So let`s come to their weakness. The team does not like sprints in 2014. Matthew Goss had to leave and wasn`t ideally replaced as King is not capable to get top results. Not even sure if he is going to join sprints at all.
But let`s compare the strengths and the weaknesses. Easily to see that the team is strong enough to compensate the sprint points. It might even give them chances to get some breakaway points on flat races.
So not sure if they will win the PT. But they are capable of it for sure. Will be hard against Festina or Vesuvio though as every missed opportunity will hurt a lot this season.
Without any big changes the team goes into the 2014 season. Surely Richeze`s loss will hurt the team a bit as he was able to get a few solid sprint results in 2013. That said the team totally lost the sprint focus this season and is not expected to do anything valuable there. Danilo Wyss though is expected to give it a few tries though. This in especially counts for tougher stages or semi cobbled classics, where he will be the lonely leader.
That said the strength are surely on the uphill part. Amador even became a bit stronger this season and might got for a GT podium or with luck even his first win?
Also Nibali could be capable to podium in one of the GT`s. In especially if riding in his home race Giro d'Italia could work well. Depth behind that duo could be a bit better as Frank and Riblon are the best domestiques already and in case they need to take leadership in some races, it will be hard for those to score a lot of points.
Schumacher still is their leader in the hills despite his stat loss. Still he should do very well here and has chances to podium in the Ardennes. That said opponents like Boasson Hagen or Bakelants in especially won`t make it easy for him. With Fumeaux he has nice support, who "replaces" ageing Albasini, who can still lead the team with his experience.
Not sure if Amador is going for Le Tour. But if so he should have a good TTT squad behind him with Goncalves, Chtioui, Champion, Dillier and co. It won`t win them TTT`s probably but could reduce the time loss I think.
Talent wise the team surely takes profit by other PCT/CT teams with a Suisse focus. 15 riders from the Switzerland ride for UBS this season and some of them like Fuchs, Reichenbach, Schelling or Dillier have still some room to improve. Swiss cycling looking pretty well at the moment and in a few years the team might even be led by a Swiss leader.
Ranking wise I predict the team to be around 6-10. There are stronger teams around but with good planning the team could surprise some of them but low focus on two terrains hurts their chances to top5.
Mountain:
*****
Hill:
****
Sprint:
*
Cobbles:
*
Time Trial:
**
Team B&O
Rider In
Rider Out
Zakkari Dempster
Steven Kruijswijk
Nick Van der Lijke
Domenik Klemme
Borislav Ivanov
With Dempster and Van der Lijke the team got two nice riders in. While first will strengthen their TTT squad, second is only on loan but already of some value in tougher sprints. I predict at least 2 stage wins for him this season already.
On the out side we also have two quality riders as Kruijswijk was a great rider to have with his aggressiveness in many races, which led to some points. Also Klemme left and became stronger now at Volkswagen and surely will be missed here.
But let`s come to the leaders. One man is above the rest for sure. Pluchkin is the star and got a nice training boost making him a huge GT contender this season. Without bad luck the Tour could be his GT this season. And different from last season he got better backup as Guldhammer improved and is maxed now. He might not be as complete but surely can top10 in GT`s or even better in one week races.
Keinath as third stage racer can reach similar value as Guldhammer I think. In general great stage racers to cover all races I guess.
The mountains though still lack the quality since the loss of Boasson Hagen. Guldhammer might be used as hilly leader in some races after Klemme is gone. But also Grivko or improved Kwiatowski might have to fill that hole. Surely not ideal to have no real point scorer here but depth is okay.
In the cobbled races the team might hope for Drucker to get a few solid results. He is not really a top10-15 rider there but eventually can surprise on a good day.
Same for the sprinters. Next to mentioned Van der Lijke with an advantage on the hillier stages the team has Sobota and Vinter. Both tthough won`t do too much I think.
At least the time trialists look a bit better again. Nothing outstanding but a great depth as next to their stage racers and Dempster the team also have Steensen, Stenersen, Jorgensen, Christensen and Vandborg. So more or less a monopol on Danish time trialists it seems.
The season should be fairly better than the last with improved talents and moves them up the rankings and off the relegation zone. In the next seasons with developed talents even more is possible as osme of those are looking pretty well. This season a top10 might be possible if Pluchkin has huge results. Top 15 though is for sure normally. More is hard due to their one dimensionality on mountain races.
Mountain:
*****
Hill:
*
Sprint:
**
Cobbles:
**
Time Trial:
***
Team Bpost - Vlaanderen
Rider In
Rider Out
Jurgen Van den Broeck
Cyril Gautier
Robin Van der Hugenhaben
Remco Broers
William Bonnet
Romain Feillu
Andreas Stauff
Mathieu Drujon
Rick Flens
Next former PCT team and one of my favourites to be honest. With a huge cobbled focus the team promoted even with a struggling Gautier, who had to leave. In the end I expect a much better season by the French but he was nicely replaced by trained Van der Hugenhaben. Still not happy to see him riding for you.
Support in the hills though is not the best with Zingle as best helper and also Van der Hugenhaben is no top5 contender on a normal day.
Van den Broeck riding for a Belgium team in his old days is nice. He surely will be able to get a few top10`s and score valuable points. Behind him it`s only Van der Hugenhaben for one week races scoring in stage races. Wellens still needs a few more years and Curfs is not storng enough. But at least they deliver some decent support.
Cornu will lead their TT squad and got some decent time trialists next to him such as Flens, Beukeboom, Vandewalle or Vandousselaere.
The coobles still are their strongest part though. Vanspeybrouck even got trained a bit and belongs to the top5 cobblers in this division. So expect him to score a lot of points as also his backup Albert and Stallaert are pretty strong.
The sprinter squad also got updated with Stauff as lead sprinter. Stallaert will improve even more next season but is already a great leadout for him. Also Bonnett and Boeckmans can bring him into a good position I guess. Stauff might be not sprinter with many victories in the end but should be in the point rankings a lot.
Next to the huge amount of talents, which will lead to a great future, it`s also impressive to see their strict National focus on mainly Belgium with some riders from the Netherlands, Germany and France.
Their great balance with 80+ riders in all 5 terrains will work well for the team and move them ahead of the relegation zone. That said some of them will still struggle to get the best results. So a top15 is more likely than a top10 but in the end I might underestimate the great balance and we will see them further up.
Tinkoff did not lose the most important riders as Kolobnev and Kiryenka both were ageing. That said, they had good value last season. But it`s nothing in comparison to their star transfer. Yuri Trofimov joins the team and directly makes them a greater team as he belongs to the very best in the Man Game. He should be able to take several wins in hilly races or even in more mountaineous. He almost can do everything on any terrain.
Together with Kritskiy they have a very strong point scoring duo. Both might be able to top10 in any GT even though Trofimov most likely will go for the less mountaineous one week races and Kritskiy goes for top5-10 in GT`s.
Kolesnikov, Kunshin, Belkov and Ignatenko will help them a lot and eventually even get the chance to lead a team in some races. Same goes for Rovny, Rybakov and Zakarin. Last unfortunately wasn`t used a lot in the right races, so he stagnated a bit and is not as good as he could have been to replace Kiryenko to 100%.
Time trialing and Cobbles are not the very best races for the team. While first is still decent with some support for the leaders, the cobbles are just for Kozontchuk to eventually get a surprising result.
Sprints also are not the main focus even though the depth is pretty good there and most important quite talented as in 1-2 years they should have quite a few good sprinters. This season it`s all about top10`s here and there.
Something that must be mentioned is the incredible 100% Russian Way. All riders are from Russia and with the abandon of Lukoil the team has some kind of monopol there even though some teams started to focus that area.
So what do we have? One of the very best puncheurs, a pretty good climber and some solid support. Only the point scoring backup in all races without those two is missing a bit. So the team won`t be able to enter the top10 I think. But they could be the strongest of the promoted teams in the end and will finish somewhere between 10-15.
Mountain:
****
Hill:
*****
Sprint:
**
Cobbles:
*
Time Trial:
**
Team Vueling Airlines
Rider In
Rider Out
Alejandro Valverde
Elia Favilli
Being absent during the transfer season surely did not help Vueling this season as the team nearly stayed the same as in their promoting season.
Valverde is the only top transfer on the free agent market. But the Spaniard is ageing and far from his best. So a good result here and there for sure. But huge point scoring, I don`t know really. Also Sinkewitz is not getting younger. So the hilly terrain is covered by a great depth as also Schreurs and an improved Reimer can do well there. Even Favilli in less hilly races could become useful, but the big point scorer is missing.
In the mountains we have Thomas Dekker. Eventually their best scorer in the end. But while other stage racers got stronger, he stayed about the same and it will be hard to fight for top3 results, that could be important in the relegation fight.
Kennaugh leads the sprint squad and should do pretty well actually. He surely is one of the better sprinters in the Pro Tour and when the hills are too hard, there still is Reimer or Favili to take over. Pedersen and Van der Sande will be great support in the sprint train. So nothing to worry on the flat stages for the team.
The cobbles though are their weaker terrain. Only Kamyshev will do well there. But actually a top10 would already be a huge success as he needs 1-2 more years until he will become a real contender. Surely one day he will be a favourite in those races.
Next to Dekker the TTT squad only has two decent riders. Viennet will be of great help while Scheinemann already is decent only. After those not the strongest. So don`t expect them to do too well. Dekker in best case won`t go for the Tour de France or other TTT heavy races then, which will hurt his scoring a lot.
This will be a long season. They have some valuable riders. But some of them are old and already on their way down. Others are not strong enough or lack the needed support. So it might be relegation again after this season. It might be a bit ahead of the line. Too many teams will have to fight I guess. But at least future is looking really good here as the team has lots of unmaxed riders at the moment, who will be very strong soon.
1. Festina - Canal+
2. Wikipedia
3. Vesuvio-Accumalux
Those three teams should be the strongest and even though I predict it to be that order, they might change with some bad luck or surprising results. Every point here from a breakaway or strong form could change it in the end. At least we should have a nice fight for the crown this season similar to last year.
Top5:
4. Aker - MOT
5. Lotto - Australia Post
Two very strong teams with strong leaders. Both should be top5 in the end and with a bit of luck even can jump into the top3. But I think the other 5 are having the better team in general. Depth or individual.
Top10:
6. Becherovka - Kiwibank
7. Swisscom - UBS
8. Bouygues Telecom
9. Simply Red Bull
10. Good Energy
A strong 5 teams to complete the top10. Bouygues is the strongest promoting team in my prediction but these teams could actually be mixed a bit with other teams coming next. So I expect a fight between them and Tinkoff for best promoted team 2014. At least those 5 shouldn`t relegate and are safe in the midfield.
Stay up or go down?
11. Tinkoff Credit Systems
12. Pendleton`s Twicer
13. Prio - Porto
14. Team B&O
15. Volkswagen-Mapei
16. Team Bpost - Vlaanderen
17. Santander
18. Project 1t4i
19. Pokerstars.com
20. Team Vueling Airlines
21. ING - Pro Cycling Team
As said. In especially the upper 3-4-5 teams should be safe from relegation. But they need their leaders to do well then. Some might be in the mix for a top10 in the end. Some might have bad luck and come closer to the relegation fight.
I decided for ING and Vueling as relegating teams in the end, while Project 1t4i and Pokerstars are there on my prediction but actually Santander and Bpost are not safe. A very close fight there just like last year with some possible outcomes until the last race I think.
Back to PCT!
22. Rothaus - Aegon
Even though I think Vueling and ING will also be back to PCT after just one season, I can see them surprise with smart race planning. I don`t see that with Rothaus Aegon to be honest. (Not the smart race planning...I hope to have done it a bit) The team just is not strong enough to survive in the first division I think. A good depth can work eventually looking at Bpost. But there is still quite a gap between Bpost and Rothaus coming to individual riders. So it probably will be PCT again in 2015.
So this was it. My 2014 PT prediction. Enjoy reading, thanks for commenting and good luck to all teams. Let`s hope I might be wrong with some teams, I put on the relegation list and let`s come back to this after the season to make fun of me.
When starting the writing it was the easiest. If I had finished it yet I could change the posting order. But unfortunately (for you) I haven't reached your team yet. might consider to change the order a bit starting on Monday or so.
Nice to see SRB rider Juul Jenson get a mention already, given that we are down there in the recesses of the alphabet Should have taken that offer of being sponsored by aardvarks.
Putting Bouygues with these other three really does make them look lightweight - but as I said elsewhere other than Vesuvio and Wikipedia you will be hard pressed to find better PT teams out there than Aker, Becherovka and Festina. I do think you can find several teams worse than Bouygues though - Bakelandts should do well enough I think.
I am curious to see what combination SotD goes for with Spilak. Le Tour is surely a must and Spilak has a great record at the Dauphine, however I don't think his team will like the whopping TTT. It is interesting to see what stage races to select out of Ricco and Spilak really.
When starting the writing it was the easiest. If I had finished it yet I could change the posting order. But unfortunately (for you) I haven't reached your team yet. might consider to change the order a bit starting on Monday or so.
Yeah I've mostly finished the ones I was planning on putting up tomorrow so I would rather not change the order I post, if that isn't a huge problem.
It will be interesting to see how our rankings differ.
Nice to read more about my team. Must admit I'm surprised to see us actually get a star for time trials, but I guess no star isn't an option?
Nice to see you mention our talents as well, I do really believe they'll prove a great depth in our team already next season, but indeed in 2016. Though, just as Smowz said, Juul-Jensen is now a Simply Red Bull rider, as he had to leave to bring Sibilla to the team. But seeing how bad Smowz misspelled his name, I expect to sign him back next transfer season, for a very reduced price!
On a more serious note, I'll cross fingers both you and CountArach are close to the truth when predicting us to fight for a top five, it'd be great to do that well.
Though, we're likely to start rather slow, as Contador isn't racing before April, and I highly doubt Boasson Hagen is enough to have us as a top half team before Contador starts his season.
Last season it felt like pretty much nothing could go wrong after Boasson Hagen's show in the Ardennes, as we were flying high thanks to him and Spilak, and that saw us never really be in the fight to avoid relegation. I just hope we'll be able to turn the tables from April if it's needed. If we're not able to do that, I can see us struggling to fight for a top 10.
Nice writing, and I'm looking forward to read your view on the 18 other PT teams!
Indeed 1 star is the minimum and lowest value. So 1 star usually means crap. Not having the exact rankings here right now as I am not at home. But it usually means that there is no focus or just weaker riders in comparison to the other 2-5 star teams.
Added 4 more teams in post 3.
Changed the order a bit so that more teams can read their own team preview today with Count`s preview having other teams. Most likely later today or tomorrow I will post those teams, that Count has posted today. On Monday I will write more teams, I haven`t done today. So the V teams need to wait a bit.
Yes four less predictable teams this time whose season hinges on planning and luck.
Sorry roturn I think Rothaus are favourites for drop. They are just too often nowhere near podium I think.
Will Santander get caught in the training crossfire? It really does depend on his mb plays it, I think they will be okay.
Project 1t4i could really struggle this year I think, this probably is listed as a transitional year but they could skirt relegation dangerously like b and o last year.
As for us I really do not know it really does depend on how things play out. I think we can top 10 but also we could struggle more than that.
Yes, I might struggle this year, but I don't think I'm in danger of relegating. I think it will come down to how Henao Montoya will be doing and if he will have a better season than last year.
I think Brambilla will be able to score as many points as Velits did last year, so it comes down to Henao to score at least half of LuLu's points from last year for us to be safe.
Using ~400k less than the other teams from my salary cap, if we can go anywhere near the top 10 (between 10th and 15th), I think it will be a success.
Edited by alexkr00 on 05-04-2014 11:21
Totally agree with you. Not expecting to stay in PT as I promoted surprisingly too early before I got my talents improved enough. So relegating, promoting And then perform well in PT 2016.
Should have taken that offer of being sponsored by aardvarks. 
