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Tour of California discussion thread
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| Smowz |
Posted on 13-05-2013 20:44
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The premier race in the US calendar and the self styled 'fourth grand tour' sees an opportunity for the stage racers not involved in the Giro to cash in at the Tour of California.
With the absence of American superstar Taylor Phinney who has dominated the last two editions this race may well be more open than it has been in recent years.
The parcours have become more mountainous in recent years leading organisers to boast of grand tour credentials. Whilst that is an exaggeration, it does boast a decent length time trial along with some tough climbs including the difficult Mount Baldy climb on stage six and Big Bear lake on stage 5.
So with the Giro on we peek at who made this years startlist:
The big favourites this year would be:
 Alberto Contador has bravely returned after is horror crash in 2012. It forced the attacking Spanish climber to withdraw from the race, though didn't hamper his excellent 2012 Vuelta campaign and with the news that rival Madrazo will not be racing there is emerging as an ante post favourite for that race. He could take advantage of Phinney absence here, though is not the greatest stage racing TTer.
 Tiago Machado has been building a portfolio of fine stage racing results and could well be the best combination here of Time trialling and climbing. His team had a good race through the now departed Peter Velits last year, though this year have hardly been in sparkling form.
 Rigoberto Uran is riding for a team on fire and he like Machado has a good solid stage racing reputation now. His memorable yellow jersey stint in the Tour De France remains the Colombians top performance, but in slightly reduced company should be favoured for a podium at least.
 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil would not normally be seen as a big favourite for mountainous stage races. However a little like this years Vuelta there is chances for a tweener such as he in this race. His team have quiet confidence in the square jawed Spaniard for a decent Vuelta run, so why not here.
 Jurgen Van Den Broeck has stepped up to the Protour reasonably well and after a good Romandie performance under tougher company and parcours could a be a danger here. The Belgian is especially dangerous at snatching high finishes and those all important bonifications. He also goes reasonably well against the clock.
 Tejay Van Garderan is worth mentioning as he is surely the best American hope, though he will share team leadership with Stefan Denifl who impressed in Romandie. TvG a former world champion will be the poster boy of the race but isn’t the best time trialler and may find Mount Baldy a bit too difficult.
 Janez Brajkovic is riding for another of the home teams and should get decent support from his team who are pluckily fighting against relegation. They badly need someone to stand up and the Slovenian has chances here, where elsewhere he may be found further down the pecking order.
Outside GC hopers like  Dan Martin,  Walter Pedraza,  Klemme and  Ardila will probably need a lucky break somehow to make the podium but top tens should be possible.
 Simply Red Bull have gambled on TTer Fabian Cancellara who will be the favourite for the chrono, but will struggle on the climbs. In the past this race has been won on the time trial but the introduction of Baldy last year has probably put a stop to that.
There is expected to be a couple of sprint stages though with the Giro also offering opportunities the sprinting field is a bit thin. That said  Guerao,  Holloway, Granjel Cabrera, Van Stayen, Greipal and  Impey are here. Van Stayen, Granjel Cabrera, Holloway and Impey may hope to survive the hilly stage one and three to contest though it could be tough for Greipal and Guerao who may have to wait until stage four (even that is tricky) or the finale.
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 13-05-2013 20:52
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Hope for some Contador Vs Machado in Mt.Baldy. |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 13-05-2013 21:11
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Let's see whether our alternative strategy of racing basically everything but the GTs with Van den Broeck pays off.
The startlist bodes well to even improve on the Romandie result.
Contador, Uran and Machado seem to be a step above, but fourth place is perfectly possible.
As Smowz pointed out, all stages but the last one could see VDB being involved in the sprint. At the very least, that should mean many sprint points. At the very best, it gives VDB some bonus seconds to make the difference against the likes of Brajkovic or even allow him a shot at the podium.
Rankings-wise, it'll be important to score significantly higher than B&O, UBS, Venchi, Santander and Bacardi.
(I know it's nearly impossible to keep them all behind until the end, but the longer we do, the less gigantic luck we need to make the cut somehow  ).
I think that's fairly reasonable, and not losing anything on Heineken wouldn't be bad either.
Taking a closer look at the stages though makes me wonder if the race will still be decided by the TT, as I doubt the hilly stages force a selection at all, and with this year's PCM edition, even stage 7 might give us a group sprint...
In which case Uran and Brajkovic stand out, and hell, why shouldn't Cancellara hang on for dear life?
So it's very difficult to make any predictions, let's just see what happens on the road 
Edited by cio93 on 13-05-2013 21:12
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| Levi4life |
Posted on 13-05-2013 21:54
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My guess is Uran. I'm not sure the mountain will break the race.
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| ember |
Posted on 13-05-2013 22:08
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I was very close to send Boasson Hagen to this race, but I went with Impey instead as "leader". Though, the competition will be tough on the stages ranked flat, but hopefully he can grab a podium or two.
I do expect to see us in most of the breakaways, admittedly we don't have the rider(s) to pull of a win from a breakaway either, but some aggressive racing will be good.
The battle for the overall win shouldn't be decided before the Mt. Baldy stage, and a rider like Brajkovic could very well hold on to the yellow jersey, if he gets it at the time trial.
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| Christer |
Posted on 14-05-2013 13:21
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I'm sending pretty much as best squad I could to this. Hoping for some decent results and fine experience for Dombrowski.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 08-12-2025 01:54
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| p3druh |
Posted on 14-05-2013 13:32
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A podium here would be great but top-5 is the goal. I believe the hilly stages will be the decisive factor here.
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| SotD |
Posted on 14-05-2013 14:48
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I'm guessing a hilly rider with a decent climb and TT will win this. Could be Luis Leon Sanchez or Tejay van Garderen. I can't really seem to figure out how hard the mountainstage are. The harder the better though.
On paper I have a really strong team here. Last time I combined Guerao and Contador I got the Racewin, the pointsjersey and 3 stagewins on the way to that. With a bit of luck there are 2 stages for Guerao here (I'm very unsure of whether or not he can actually compete outside of Spain though) and with some luck the mountain-stage for Contador (I'm guessing Machado is stronger though).
It could be anything from a podium to a very dissapointing race. I'm hoping for the first, expecting the latter.
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| SotD |
Posted on 14-05-2013 15:18
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ember wrote:
The battle for the overall win shouldn't be decided before the Mt. Baldy stage, and a rider like Brajkovic could very well hold on to the yellow jersey, if he gets it at the time trial.
I think only bad luck can keep Cancellara from having the leaders jersey after the TT. The hilly/flat stages should be easy for him with his Flat/hilly combination of stats. There are no climbs that will force him to drop, until after the TT.
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| dave92 |
Posted on 14-05-2013 16:39
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Really not sure what will happen in this race. Getting a top 10, a season goal of mine, will be a challenge but I have a strong line up, hope Van Garderen and Denifl can both be active.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 14-05-2013 21:52
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So this is why Santander have been doing so badly this season, theyve been riding blind
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 14-05-2013 21:53
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 That needs to be on the funny screens for shore. |
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| Firefly21 |
Posted on 14-05-2013 21:55
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Fun little stage. Seems like Festina is cursed sometimes, though that probably wasnt a huge disaster for them it was hardly the optimal outcome!
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 14-05-2013 22:00
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Enjoyable opener! Lovely screen of Santander, baby-face Voeckler and Jack ''for some reason'' Bobridge. Nice ones
Great stage for SRB, obviously. It's always nice to see Bobo showing himself in PT, and of course Spartacus did a true Spartacus here.
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| ember |
Posted on 14-05-2013 22:03
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What a monster Cancellara is. That was just an insane lead out. Well done and congratulations to Red Bull, Impey clearly had no chance to get past Van Stayen. Though, second place is superb, and more than I could hope for
That was a nice report as well. For the next stage I can only hope Impey try to hang on, even without the bonus of a leader's jersey, as he might be just strong enough to hang on, and then get a good result in the sprint.
Thanks for a good report, Smowz! And as SN pointed out, a "nice" picture of Santander's two riders 
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| Smowz |
Posted on 14-05-2013 22:14
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I didn't really believe we would be that amazing in the sprint - was thinking that it may be cool to see Cancellara do a lead out but as part of a train. Not actually the train on his own
I was trying to get across in the report that Festina really worked hard to close the gap but the first pack had to work hard to close down the break and the wind was a real bitch.
Massive win from Van Stayen - makes up for the other spluttering Van!
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| Rin |
Posted on 14-05-2013 22:15
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I would say Santander were headless so far
Well first stage and couldn't really expect anything as I haven't sent any sprinters.
But De la Fuente again attacking on points where you wouldn't expect any attack 
I really like that attacking from him and leaves some hopes that he might attack again on the mountains that are ahead.
 Team Bianchi - 2012 Man-Game ProContinental Tour Champions
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| Christer |
Posted on 14-05-2013 22:52
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Very hard stage. Voeckler did good, and took the KoM. Nice exposure for Team WWE. Greipel, Txurruxa and Dombrowski lost a little time. Only disappointing, really. Txurruxa's loss is a little disappointing.
Baby face = A good guy. Did you know this when you wrote the report, Smowz?
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| cio93 |
Posted on 14-05-2013 22:56
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8th, not too shabby, especially as I found out basically only TvG can challenge Nerz for white
TvG taking seconds already doesn't bode well to overtake him later in the race though.
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| Roman |
Posted on 15-05-2013 02:15
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7th place for Rabon is a nice start. Hopefully Uran will lost no significant time in the stage 2...
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