I think it's also right time to predict how long Sky riders will lead the race. I truly expect Cavendish to lead the peleton through Aubisque along EBH though
Wow, i didn't think that Aspin was that weak. It's perfect to wheel dangerous breaks back for Rogers and Porte. On the other hand, Peyresourde seems to have som very steep sections, even though it only averages 6,7%. Fortunately, the flat sections are at the bottom of the climb. Wiggins can be put into danger the last 8 K.
On another note, it's going to be 35 degrees at Pau Wednesday. Perfect wheather to crack someone who has a below average day.
Edited by Riis123 on 16-07-2012 22:55
TheManxMissile wrote:
If the descent is wet it could be an exciting finish. If they are dry then it will be boring.
Day for a break i think. If the contendors (not sky) attack uphill on the aspin or earlier it could be a very good day
It's gonna hot and sunny, so no wet descents. And if they need to attack before Peyresourde, Tourmalet is the place they need to put pressure on Sky and drop Rogers and Porte which will open attack at Aspin, Otherwise, Aspin isn't steep enough. The work needs to be done before which i hope, cause Wiggo can minimize an eventually loss to 30-45 sec if they don't try something before Peyresourde.
TheManxMissile wrote:
If the descent is wet it could be an exciting finish. If they are dry then it will be boring.
Day for a break i think. If the contendors (not sky) attack uphill on the aspin or earlier it could be a very good day
It's gonna hot and sunny, so no wet descents. And if they need to attack before Peyresourde, Tourmalet is the place they need to put pressure on Sky and drop Rogers and Porte which will open attack at Aspin, Otherwise, Aspin isn't steep enough. The work needs to be done before which i hope, cause Wiggo can minimize an eventually loss to 30-45 sec if they don't try something before Peyresourde.
what i was trying to say, but also keeping it short
shame about the weather, but hot works better uphill, where the attacks need to be
TheManxMissile wrote:
If the descent is wet it could be an exciting finish. If they are dry then it will be boring.
Day for a break i think. If the contendors (not sky) attack uphill on the aspin or earlier it could be a very good day
It's gonna hot and sunny, so no wet descents. And if they need to attack before Peyresourde, Tourmalet is the place they need to put pressure on Sky and drop Rogers and Porte which will open attack at Aspin, Otherwise, Aspin isn't steep enough. The work needs to be done before which i hope, cause Wiggo can minimize an eventually loss to 30-45 sec if they don't try something before Peyresourde.
what i was trying to say, but also keeping it short
shame about the weather, but hot works better uphill, where the attacks need to be
Taking into consideration that Nibali is the greatest challanger, apart from Froomey, it's great it's just not warm, but hot. It could work en favour of Nibali, I think, and could potentially be one of Wiggo's weaknesses. Let's see.
The slope on that side of the Tourmalet fits rouleurs or Sky guys very well, except for the very steep last km. Aspin fits Sky very well too. I can't see the serious stuff between top G.C. favourites happening before Peyresourde.
EBH will pace Aubisque, Knees and Rogers pace Tourmalet, Rogers (if still there) and Porte pace Aspin and Porte (if still there) and Froome to pace Peyresourde.
UK postal control fest. Neither Liquigas or BMC have the team to drop Rogers/Porte on Aubisque/Tourmalet, and Evans/Nibali aren't strong enough to drop them all on the final climb. At best Nibali can get a minute out of them with a psycho descent at the end, but it's not enough to threaten Wiggins. With the final ITT in mind, he'll need to take 3-4 minutes out of Wiggins the next 2 stages to have a shot at the GC. If they had the team mates to drop Rogers/Porte early, they could've put at least Wiggins in some trouble, but don't see it happening.
The only way to beat Wiggins is to isolate him early on a final climb but no team has enough riders to push the pace long enough on the climbs. The only team with enough power to crack Wiggins is his own.
The only way is if Lotto, BMC, Liguidas, Europcar all work together but thats not gonna happen.
If they had any balls, the likes of Evans, Nibali, VDB, Rolland etc would team up and go to work. Anything would be better than sitting passive watching UK Postal do as they please. If anything they'd at least go down knowing they'd tried everything.
It's a shame Contador and A.Schleck aren't there really. Could've made for some explosive action in the mountains when they both had to take time on Wiggins for the ITTs. Radioshack could've challenged a bit more as a team as well with a proper captain and a non-PMS F.Schleck.
Edited by cosmic on 17-07-2012 02:06
Seems like epic stage, but Sky will make it boring, with Eisel and Cavendish droping all the climbers at Tourmalet.
I hope for some nice break at least.
Only chance for some GC changes is downhill or big gap for someone from late top 10/15...
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Seems like epic stage, but Sky will make it boring, with Eisel and Cavendish droping all the climbers at Tourmalet.
I hope for some nice break at least.
Only chance for some GC changes is downhill or big gap for someone from late top 10/15...
A break which will obviously contain a rider from Europcar and Garmin i expect
I just hope to see Kessiakoff in the breakaway. If he manages to pick up major points atop Aubisque and Tourmalet I think it looks very good for him in the KoM classification.
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
