So GT number 2, who will tame this Spanish Monster?
First up lets look at the route to evaluate what skills will be required. I will then evaluate each rider and team based on those skills to discover who is the favourite.
The first 7 stages:
First we have a 4km prologue, favouring time trialists but on the whole there are unlikely to be major gaps. I give this stage a 2 for decisiveness
5 flat stages follow, unlikely to do much for the GC bar any possible crashes, but stage 4 could cause some chaos with the hills close to the finish, giving it a 1 for decisiveness among Puncheurs
Stage 7 is a 31km time trial, this will test defending champion Schleck and may well put him on the back foot come the Mountains. As such this stage gets a 7.
The magnificent 7 stages:
This is where the going gets tough, we finish stage 8 with a massive 20km climb, although the lack of any seriously steep ramps gives this stage only a 6.
A hilly stage is next, but the finish is vicious and Valverde will be gunning for this one, unfortunately small time gaps will probably cause this to be only a 5.
We then get some recovery stages, expect breakaways to make it, before BOOM, back to the summit finishes. 12, 13, 14 are massive stages and the winner will be decided up these peaks, their ratings are 9,9,8 for the mountain goats.
The final 7:
The Vuelta calms down for a bit now, we get 3 stages to get our breath back, before the big push.
Stage 18 is a nasty little hilly stage, expect a top ten rider to miss a split here and lose a minute or so, however this stage is unlikely to cause big splits, I give it a 4.
Stage 19 puts us in the mountains for the final time. Scores will be settled, and don't think that the lack of a summit finish makes this any easier, expect those masters of recovery to control this one, I give it a 5.
Stage 20 is the final challenge and 20km solo is not easy after 3 weeks in the saddle. If the golden jersey is still up for grabs today then expect fireworks I give it a 5.
Now The Teams
The way this works is that I will rate each rider out of ten for Mountains, Hills, Time trials and Sprinting, trying to take into account the other relevant stats and national bonus etc. I then will give an overall score, based on their strengths multiplied by the stage decisiveness giving us a rough ranking system. I have normalised the scores to be out of 100.
Auber
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Reus
Kai
2
6
8
0
45
Morizot
Florian
1
2
2
0
16
Mehr-Wenige
Dietmar
0
6
0
0
12
Jiriakov
Dimitri
1
1
0
0
9
Haussler
Heinrich
0
1
0
7
2
Tronet
Steven
0
0
0
3
0
Thire
Jonathon
0
0
0
2
0
Chedhomme
Morgan
0
0
0
1
0
Bonser
Adam
0
0
0
0
0
Auber haven't really brought anyone for the overall, with Reus predicted about 25th place, however they have a solid sprint chain, Haussler will be looking to claim a victory, while Reus will also be aiming for victory in the time trials
Valverde is Colombia's leader, and what a leader he is, strongest in the hills, he is rated as the second best rider for the overall, although support, which I haven't taken into account may be lacking, expect Valverde to pick up a couple of stage wins with his strong finishing kick
Like Auber, Carmeuse haven't got much more than a sprint chain. That said, Roelants is the best sprinter in the Vuelta, and should Bos ever reach the finish he will presumably challenge.
Domina Vacanze
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Schleck
Andy
10
7
4
0
90
Brajkovic
Janez
8
7
8
0
87
Taberlay
Sid
4
0
0
0
27
Calderón
Diego
2
0
0
0
13
Duenas Nevado
Hector
1
0
0
0
7
Fernandez
Koldo
0
0
0
4
0
Speirs
Isaac
0
0
0
4
0
Herrero Llorente
David
0
0
0
0
0
Fleeman
Daniel
0
0
0
0
0
Schleck may only be ranked third, but the defending champion has in Brajkovic, who is in the top 5 himself, as a team mate. This, combined with the fact he is defending champion, makes Schleck the man to watch, and a sure bet for a couple of stage wins
Energie have Soler and Perez Cuapio and will be hoping for a top 20 with both of them, they can't expect much more, than a couple of breakaways and hopefully a stage win
Festina
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Contador
Alberto
10
8
7
0
100
Madrazo
Angel
7
5
4
0
67
Dees
Tim
4
4
6
0
50
Morabito
Steve
3
3
3
0
33
Denifl
Stefan
3
4
0
0
28
Sonnery
Blaise
1
0
0
6
7
Lavoine
Anthony
0
0
0
6
0
Maksimov
Roman
0
0
0
6
0
Vingerling
Michael
0
0
0
6
0
Here he is, the favourite, Alberto Contador. Yet to impress at a Grand Tour, this may well be his year, a decent team behind him, means he shouldn't be caught out. One danger though, is that he could miss out on all his support as a strong sprint chain may well detract. That said, It will take something special to beat him. Another thing to watch out for is his team mate, who next year will probably be his main rival, friction may well exist.
An excellent time trial team here, with a real chance of winning all three time trials, Plaza will also be aiming for a solid top ten finish, and with a bit of luck could get a top five.
La Gazzetta dello Sport
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
De la Fuente
David
5
6
0
0
45
Vasquez
Wilmer
6
0
0
0
40
Osella
Marco
4
1
0
0
29
Szmyd
Sylwester
4
0
0
0
27
Wielinga
Remmert
2
1
2
0
20
Maisto
Massimiliano
3
0
0
0
20
Possoni
Moris
2
0
0
0
13
Vandewalle
Kristof
0
0
5
0
13
RodrÃguez Segarra
Rafael
0
0
0
4
0
After the team for the Giro, here Gazzetta will have to be happy with a top twenty and some breakaways, not much on offer.
Lead by a Justo Tenorio fresh from his GT debut in the Giro, he'll be looking for a top ten, and according to my system, that might just be within his reach. He doesn't have much support, but there is a decent sprint train here, looking for it's chance to shine
Lipton Ice Tea
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Arroyo
David
9
7
3
0
81
Danielson
Tom
6
5
5
0
62
Stundzia
Drasutis
0
1
4
0
12
Zrimsek
Jure
0
0
4
2
10
Matamoros
Francisco
1
0
0
0
7
Rizza
Emanuele
0
0
0
6
0
Rowe
Matt
0
0
0
4
0
Petrie-Armstrong
Adam
0
0
0
0
0
Bourdouxhe
Remy
0
0
0
0
0
Arroyo will be looking for a top 5 finish based on his climbing, however I feel that his time trialling will let him down enough that he will have to settle in about 8th, Tom Danielson should lend him some decent support, while Rizza is aiming for podiums in the sprints
Rujano is another whose time trialling will let him down, however a top ten should definitely be on the cards, with better results certainly possible, he has some fairly solid support in the mountains, so expect the team to be aggressive when the gradients rise.
Phillips
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Lövkvist
Thomas
7
6
4
0
69
Rodriguez Oliver
Joaquin
7
9
1
2
67
Bellotti
Francesco
3
4
0
0
28
Schreurs
Maurice
0
5
0
1
10
Fuglsang
Jakob
1
1
0
0
9
Mouris
Jens
0
0
3
0
8
Tjallingii
Maarten
0
0
1
0
3
Serebriakov
Aleksandr
0
0
0
7
0
Cohnen
Stefan
0
0
0
0
0
Between Lovkvist and Rodriguez Oliver Phillips have a very solid team, they are likely to be lacking in the big mountains, however one of them will probably push hard for the top ten, although I fear they may just miss out.
Santander
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Downhill2
Abal
David
7
3
8
0
76
López Garcia
David
7
5
0
0
59
Valls
Rafael
4
2
0
0
32
Gonzalo
Eduardo
3
1
0
0
23
Gárate
Juan Manuel
2
0
0
0
14
Hernández Gutierrez
Aitor
2
0
0
0
14
Ortega
Didac
2
0
0
0
14
Galdos
Aitor
0
0
0
6
0
Guerao
Óscar
0
0
0
8
0
Abal will fail probably fail to get a top ten, however solid support from his wild card team makes it a possibility. Guerao is here for the sprints, and he may well make an impression in what is a sprint field lacking in stars
Sony Ericsson
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Trofimov
Yuri
7
10
8
6
87
Marzano
Marco
7
6
0
0
58
Pauwels
Serge
3
1
4
0
32
Fernández Oliveira
Luis
4
2
0
0
31
Öste-Macdonald
Max
4
0
0
0
27
Meyer
Cameron
0
0
1
4
3
Johansson
Fredrik
0
0
1
3
3
Bazajev
Assan
0
0
0
6
0
Fouquet
Kevin
0
0
0
0
0
Trofimov has been in amazing form this year, and although he will lose time in the mountains, aggression in the hills may well pay off and allow him to push for a top 5 spot. A decent sprint chain means that should Trofimov fail it won't be all bad for Sony, expect Bazajev to be leading that charge
Team B&O
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Hacecký
Martin
6
2
0
0
44
Mestre
Ricardo
5
2
0
0
37
Klemme
Domenik
3
6
0
0
32
Jørgensen
Casper
0
0
5
0
13
Rasmussen
Alex
0
0
3
6
8
Reckweg
Morten
0
0
3
0
8
Veelers
Tom
0
0
1
4
3
Vanoverschelde
Kobe
0
0
0
6
0
Vinter
Troels
0
0
0
5
0
The sprints are a priority for B&O here,, although a 4 man chain never seems to work out, so there will need to be a clear order of seniority for the strategy to work, As far as the overall goes, a couple of top 20's is all that can be aimed for.
In Vladimir Karpets Nespresso have a genuine podium candidate and expect most of their support to be thrown behind him, unfortunately there isn't much else as far as climbing goes so I suspect Karpets will fall just short of the big 3.
Team Starbucks-Radioshack
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Amador
Andrei
7
6
8
0
79
Jaramillo
Remberto
5
0
0
0
33
Tschopp
Johann
3
0
0
0
20
Sibila Romero
Pedro
1
0
0
0
7
Ciccarese
Fabio
0
2
0
0
4
Ospina
Carlos Alberto
0
2
0
0
4
Freire
Oscar
0
1
0
7
2
Bacquet
Fabien
0
0
0
4
0
Coyot
Arnaud
0
0
0
0
0
Amador is another on the cusp of a top ten, and solid support in the mountains may just push him over that barrier. Also here is Oscar Freire, hoping for one more year of glory, and I expect him to grab a stage or two
Vesuvio-Accumalux
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Overall
Intxausti
Beñat
9
4
8
0
88
Medvedev
Dmitri
6
0
0
0
40
Cabreira
João
4
0
0
0
27
Kvasina
Matea
2
0
2
0
18
Rienda Segura
Juan Carlos
1
0
0
0
7
Faiers
Thomas
1
0
0
0
7
Hopman
Jan
0
0
0
4
0
Schinker
Nico
0
0
0
4
0
Merino Criado
Pedro
0
0
0
2
0
After a disappointing start to the Giro, Intxausti found his legs towards the end and he will be hoping that form will continue into the Vuelta. A top five is probably his target, and as he is ranked 5th I guess it should be achieved.
Again just a top 20 candidate for Wikipedia, They will be more focussed on the sprints, where Farrar will be trying his luck.
Youtube-Twitter
Last name
First name
MT
Hill
TT
Sp
Downhill2
Pellizotti
Franco
8
8
1
0
74
Antón
Igor
6
4
2
0
55
Ochoa Quintero
Richard
5
4
0
0
43
Niemiec
Przemyslaw
3
3
5
0
40
Txurruka
Amets
3
3
0
0
27
Velits
Peter
2
5
2
0
29
Thomson
Jay
1
0
0
0
7
Pozzo
Mattia
0
0
0
0
0
Bertogliati
Rubens
0
1
1
0
5
The second wildcard team will also be aiming for a top ten, although with Pellizotti's time trialling ability I fear they may just miss out. A very strong mountain team though, with no room for any sprinters.
On with the show!!
[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
I don't really have much to say. I want my team to do well, but I don't have any expectations. On the other hand, I brought Rodriguez and Lövkvist here for a reason, but it's going to be a matter of luck. Perhaps a top 10? Perhaps a mountain jersey if the top 10 thing doesn't work out? A stage win?
There's also Serebriakov who may be able to compete in the sprints.
We'll see how it works out.
Edited by CrueTrue on 22-11-2010 14:57
I think Rodriguez will easily be the captain over Lövkvist. I hope you are right about Contador being that superior. I don't think he will be much stronger than Valverde and Schleck, but hopefully he can take a little time on Valverde in the mountains, and some in the TT's on Schleck... Then it just might be a huge succes...
Loving the analysis in this introduction, gives an observer all they could wish to know about this years Vuelta.
Valverde, Contador, Schleck ... I really cannot see anything else but those three names for the overall. Though I am not sure these three are as out and out favourites as Sella and Cunego were in the Giro. Intxausti, Trofimov, Plaza and Karpets could well challenge it just depends whether any of them have bad days in those five mountain stages.
Two decent wildcard teams as well, with Abal and Pellizotti no doubt overall top 10 contenders. Santander should go well in the sprints with Guereo, it all depends whether the AI select the right leadout though for these sprinters.
With riders such as Janez Brajkovic, Justo Tenorio, David Abal, Franco Pellizotti and Andrei Amador battleing for the places just outside the Top 10...
Good start from Contador... 7th is a bit better than what I expected. No danger in letting Vesuvio getting some points. Much better than Auber winning the TT and taking loads of points from the leaders jersey...
Also good start from Tim Dees and Angel Madrazo... Will be interesting to see my sprint train fail in yet another GT
