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2010 Tour de France - Shades of '66?
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| Cordelier |
Posted on 02-11-2009 21:24
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I've been trying to figure out what Johan Bruyneel's strategy might be for 2010. It's pretty much a given that everyone expects Lance Armstrong will be the uncontested team leader and that with the depth he has around him, he will be a serious contender.
But I can't help thinking of the 1966 Tour de France... when everyone was focused on 5-time winner Jacques Anquetil's return to the Tour. Like Armstrong, Anquetil had a lot of team depth around him and he seemed to be the uncontested leader of the team... so much so that when Anquetil's teammate, Lucien Aimar, broke away on Stage 17 the other teams were so focused on Anquetil that they never realized the danger presented by Aimar and Aimar went on to win the Tour.
Will Levi Leipheimer (or Andreas Kloden) be the next Lucien Aimar in 2010? It's something to think about - I certainly wouldn't put it past Bruyneel to pull off something along those lines. |
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 02-11-2009 21:36
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Armstrong wasn't 'scary' in the 2009 Tour, and I'd be surprised if I was the only one who noticed that. I'm sure the directors of the other teams did take note of this and thus will also be focused on Leipheimer, who, in my opinion, might turn out to be stronger than Armstrong.
Klöden also looked alright (= as in better than Armstrong), especially during the first mountain stages. Unfortunately, he had to work for a struggling Armstrong.
That said, I don't believe that any of the RadioShack riders can go for the win. They are old and used to be good, but are slowly but steadily getting worse from year to year. |
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| Cordelier |
Posted on 02-11-2009 21:46
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CrueTrue wrote:
Armstrong wasn't 'scary' in the 2009 Tour, and I'd be surprised if I was the only one who noticed that. I'm sure the directors of the other teams did take note of this and thus will also be focused on Leipheimer, who, in my opinion, might turn out to be stronger than Armstrong.
Klöden also looked alright (= as in better than Armstrong), especially during the first mountain stages. Unfortunately, he had to work for a struggling Armstrong.
That said, I don't believe that any of the RadioShack riders can go for the win. They are old and used to be good, but are slowly but steadily getting worse from year to year.
Armstrong wasn't trying to win, though.... he was essentially a super domestique last year. Contador was Astana's GC guy from the get-go, and Armstrong is enough of a team player to know what his role was - to support the strongest rider on the team.
He was 37 years old, coming back from a 3-year layoff, riding support and yet he still managed to finish third. And you don't call that scary? And next year he has essentially the same team supporting him. I wouldn't underestimate him. |
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| doddy13 |
Posted on 02-11-2009 21:49
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CrueTrue wrote:
That said, I don't believe that any of the RadioShack riders can go for the win. They are old and used to be good, but are slowly but steadily getting worse from year to year.
and thats why they've got the nickname "the geriatric squad"
There's no point slapping a schleck - Sean Kelly on "Who needs a slap"
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| Cordelier |
Posted on 02-11-2009 21:53
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I agree with you that collectively Radio Shack is an "over-the-hill" gang - but when you put them all together, they've still got more talent than any other team... with the possible exceptions of a Caisse d'Epargne with Contador or Saxobank (although I think Saxobank will feel Arvesen's loss). |
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| Cordelier |
Posted on 02-11-2009 21:57
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It's too bad Brice Feillu didn't sign with Radio Shack - he would have profited from all of the experience and would have given the team a footing for the future. As it is, I think Vacansoleil will put too much weight on him too soon and squander his potential while Radio Shack probably won't last much longer than the remainder of Armstrong's career.
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| doddy13 |
Posted on 02-11-2009 22:01
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Cordelier wrote:
when you put them all together, they've still got more talent than any other team..
No, they have a very good collective palmares, the team is past it. We can't imagine that these guys are "getting better"
There's no point slapping a schleck - Sean Kelly on "Who needs a slap"
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| Cordelier |
Posted on 02-11-2009 22:07
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doddy13 wrote:
Cordelier wrote:
when you put them all together, they've still got more talent than any other team..
No, they have a very good collective palmares, the team is past it. We can't imagine that these guys are "getting better"
They don't have to get better... you saw how Astana controlled the peloton last year - even if they're slightly worse than they were last year, they're still heads and shoulders over anyone else. |
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 02-11-2009 22:09
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Cordelier wrote:
CrueTrue wrote:
Armstrong wasn't 'scary' in the 2009 Tour, and I'd be surprised if I was the only one who noticed that. I'm sure the directors of the other teams did take note of this and thus will also be focused on Leipheimer, who, in my opinion, might turn out to be stronger than Armstrong.
Klöden also looked alright (= as in better than Armstrong), especially during the first mountain stages. Unfortunately, he had to work for a struggling Armstrong.
That said, I don't believe that any of the RadioShack riders can go for the win. They are old and used to be good, but are slowly but steadily getting worse from year to year.
Armstrong wasn't trying to win, though.... he was essentially a super domestique last year. Contador was Astana's GC guy from the get-go, and Armstrong is enough of a team player to know what his role was - to support the strongest rider on the team.
He was 37 years old, coming back from a 3-year layoff, riding support and yet he still managed to finish third. And you don't call that scary? And next year he has essentially the same team supporting him. I wouldn't underestimate him.
Clearly, you've been listening too much to Phil Liggett. I do not believe for one second that Armstrong didn't try to win the Tour. Do you remember the side wind stage? It was Astana/Armstrong which led the attack - who was left behind? Contador.
How many times did you see Armstrong working up front for Contador? My guess is zero. Armstrong did what he could to win this, but he just wasn't good enough.
He managed to finish third due to the horrible route - and his smartness (e.g. the side wind stage), not really due to his climbing power.
I do agree that he should be able to perform slightly better next year (better season planning, 1 year's "experience" , but there's a long way to the top (Contador, A. Schleck - and who knows, maybe Gesink?). |
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| Cordelier |
Posted on 02-11-2009 23:05
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*L* First off, I didn't think it was possible to listen to too much Phil Leggett?? Leggett knows all!
Were we watching the same race? You make it sound like Armstrong was Bernard Hinault to Conador's Greg LeMond. I seem to recall Armstrong doing a pretty good job covering Frank Schleck while Contador countered Andy. Seemed like good teamwork to me.
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Posted on 24-11-2024 14:30
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| aaffins |
Posted on 02-11-2009 23:18
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I dont think Armstrong has the ability to win the Tour at this point. That said, I think it will make things a lot more interesting to have such a strong team with such a crappy leader, so I'm looking forward to it. |
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| Cordelier |
Posted on 03-11-2009 02:30
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aaffins wrote:
I dont think Armstrong has the ability to win the Tour at this point. That said, I think it will make things a lot more interesting to have such a strong team with such a crappy leader, so I'm looking forward to it.
Are you serious??
I fully acknowledge Armstrong is nowhere near where he was in his prime, but I'd hardly classify him as "crappy" - he did finish third in the Tour last year, and that's without the benefit of being team leader. There were plenty of other contenders out there who had their teams centred around them who didn't finish anywhere near the podium.
So while he may not be capable of single-handedly blowing the race apart next year like he did so many times in the past, he's certainly going to be a significant force to be reckoned with - he's a strong leader on a strong (and probably the strongest) team.
You put the likes of Armstrong and Leipheimer and Klöden under the control of a genius like Bruyneel, and I guarantee things are going to happen. The only way I can see Radio Shack not winning next year is if Contador gets signed by Caisse d'Epargne... and even then, it could go either way. |
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| Deadpool |
Posted on 03-11-2009 02:56
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Cordelier wrote:
aaffins wrote:
I dont think Armstrong has the ability to win the Tour at this point. That said, I think it will make things a lot more interesting to have such a strong team with such a crappy leader, so I'm looking forward to it.
Are you serious??
I fully acknowledge Armstrong is nowhere near where he was in his prime, but I'd hardly classify him as "crappy" - he did finish third in the Tour last year, and that's without the benefit of being team leader. There were plenty of other contenders out there who had their teams centred around them who didn't finish anywhere near the podium.
So while he may not be capable of single-handedly blowing the race apart next year like he did so many times in the past, he's certainly going to be a significant force to be reckoned with - he's a strong leader on a strong (and probably the strongest) team.
You put the likes of Armstrong and Leipheimer and Klöden under the control of a genius like Bruyneel, and I guarantee things are going to happen. The only way I can see Radio Shack not winning next year is if Contador gets signed by Caisse d'Epargne... and even then, it could go either way.
I think he's serious and I completely agree. This is currently my favorites list for the tour next year:
1. Contador
2. A. Schleck
3. Valverde (if he can ride)
4. Evans (ditto)
5. Menchov
6. Levi
7. Lance
8. Basso
9, 10, etc.: Various unproven (at the tdf level) riders, VDB, Gesink, etc.
Lance isn't that good, especially not now, and I'll always argue he was highly overrated as an actual rider during his 7-gt wins. Lets just say when in a mountain stage you have 6 helpers w/ you, one of you challengers has 5 w/ you, and everyone else is on your own, its not that hard to win 7 in a row when that other challenger w/ help is slightly worse than you.
Edit: Two notes, first Levi would be 5th if it weren't for the fact he's working for Lance, and two, I know that Wiggo isn't on the list. If he rides well as a GT rider early in the year he moves into the 5-6 spot on the list. I'm just not completely sure yet...
Edited by Deadpool on 03-11-2009 03:06
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| Cordelier |
Posted on 03-11-2009 03:40
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Deadpool wrote:
[quote]Cordelier wrote:
I think he's serious and I completely agree. This is currently my favorites list for the tour next year:
1. Contador
2. A. Schleck
3. Valverde (if he can ride)
4. Evans (ditto)
5. Menchov
6. Levi
7. Lance
8. Basso
9, 10, etc.: Various unproven (at the tdf level) riders, VDB, Gesink, etc.
Lance isn't that good, especially not now, and I'll always argue he was highly overrated as an actual rider during his 7-gt wins. Lets just say when in a mountain stage you have 6 helpers w/ you, one of you challengers has 5 w/ you, and everyone else is on your own, its not that hard to win 7 in a row when that other challenger w/ help is slightly worse than you.
Edit: Two notes, first Levi would be 5th if it weren't for the fact he's working for Lance, and two, I know that Wiggo isn't on the list. If he rides well as a GT rider early in the year he moves into the 5-6 spot on the list. I'm just not completely sure yet...
But you prove my point... in the final analysis, the most important factor is team strength. If the Tour were an individual race, Contador would win - he's the strongest rider today, hands down. If you put the strongest rider on the strongest team (Astana 2009) you'll win every time. If you put the strongest rider on a pretty good team, he'll have a good shot, but it's not a sure thing. If you put him on a bad team (Astana 2010), he'll have next to no chance to win.
Andy is an awesome climber and has awesome potential - but he doesn't have the ability (yet) in Time Trials. If you can't win there, then you don't have the power to blow a race open the way a champion does.
Valverde is too inconsistent - when the heat is on, he'll have that bad day that'll blow it for him.
Evans will still be hampered by lack of support at BMC.
Menchov is hampered because Rabobank's first priority will always be the Spring Classics - the Tour is a secondary theatre to them.
Levi is my pick for 2010 - he's going to be Aimar to Lance Armstrong's Anquetil. |
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| chrica04 |
Posted on 03-11-2009 05:03
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Millar or Vandevelde  |
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 03-11-2009 08:06
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Cordelier wrote:
*L* First off, I didn't think it was possible to listen to too much Phil Leggett?? Leggett knows all!
Were we watching the same race? You make it sound like Armstrong was Bernard Hinault to Conador's Greg LeMond. I seem to recall Armstrong doing a pretty good job covering Frank Schleck while Contador countered Andy. Seemed like good teamwork to me.
Hah, I knew it  So far, all you've been saying can be traced back to what Liggett said during the Tour. When Armstrong was dropped, he was a good team mate for Contador for not 'attacking'. When Armstrong attacked, he was back at his old level, destroying the field, etc. Armstrong just couldn't do anything wrong.
What I'm saying is that Armstrong had a free role. He didn't work for Contador at any point - yes, he 'stayed' back, but that was probably more a case of Armstrong not being able to follow than him wanting to be "a good team mate".
And that's also my point when it comes to analysing the 2010 race. Armstrong wasn't strong enough in 2009 - especially not in the first weeks where he can thank Klöden for not being totally dropped and out of the GC:
Saying that Contador has "no chance to win", is just ... weird. Contador pretty much did it by himself during the 2009 Tour. He didn't use his team to reel in Andy Schleck - he attacked before Andy, except on Mont Ventoux where he countered him. Contador has proved that even without full support, he's (too) strong.
You also hint that Andy Schleck has worse chances than Armstrong, because he's not the best time tirallist - can I please remind you that even with that downside, A. Schleck ended 2nd in this year's Tour? Also keep i mind that Armstrong is very, very far from previous years' dominating in the time trials. A. Schleck was only 15 seconds slower than Army in the last time trial of TdF 09.
And in addition to those riders, many of the riders who did well at the 09 Tour are young guys who're still improving. An injury-free Robert Gesink - in a duo with Menchov - is scary. A trio of Nibali, Pellizotti and Basso is scary.
I can give you one thing, though: Valverde won't do better than Armstrong in the '10 Tour - he'll be out, suspended |
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| Stijn_vranken |
Posted on 03-11-2009 08:54
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the chances of valverde participating is 10%
too many doping suspicion
UCI is now investigating one atm
with enough evidence apparantly
prevent hangovers --> stay drunk
pozzato, basically the most stupid cyclist around
RIP WW. Gone but not forgotten
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 03-11-2009 09:59
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UCI isn't really investigating. It's at CAS for the moment. If they decide that CONI's methods were legal, Valverde's out globally for the next two years. |
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| Deadpool |
Posted on 03-11-2009 12:06
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Cordelier wrote:
But you prove my point... in the final analysis, the most important factor is team strength. If the Tour were an individual race, Contador would win - he's the strongest rider today, hands down. If you put the strongest rider on the strongest team (Astana 2009) you'll win every time. If you put the strongest rider on a pretty good team, he'll have a good shot, but it's not a sure thing. If you put him on a bad team (Astana 2010), he'll have next to no chance to win.
Andy is an awesome climber and has awesome potential - but he doesn't have the ability (yet) in Time Trials. If you can't win there, then you don't have the power to blow a race open the way a champion does.
Valverde is too inconsistent - when the heat is on, he'll have that bad day that'll blow it for him.
Evans will still be hampered by lack of support at BMC.
Menchov is hampered because Rabobank's first priority will always be the Spring Classics - the Tour is a secondary theatre to them.
Levi is my pick for 2010 - he's going to be Aimar to Lance Armstrong's Anquetil.
You do realize I am taking the teams they ride for into account with those rankings...
Also as Mike said, its clear you listen to Ligget, who i detest (as my quote which Guido Mukk references in his signature makes clear)
Edited by Deadpool on 03-11-2009 12:06
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| doddy13 |
Posted on 03-11-2009 16:19
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Phill Ligget is a lance armstrong super-fan. Lance was in effect the team leader this year, and even then he can't do it.
He will never win the tour again, he will barely make top 5 next year IMO. Contador will win the TDF 2010, simply because he is the best rider today, he had 0 support this year, and won.
oh, and Valverde having a bad day? I'll get Isso to explain all about that.
Edited by doddy13 on 03-11-2009 17:28
There's no point slapping a schleck - Sean Kelly on "Who needs a slap"
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